Baseball Writing

2010-10-16T08:51:00.002-04:00

A Little of the . . . Glory Of

I had a friend was a big baseball player
back in high school
He could throw that speedball by you
Make you look like a fool boy
Saw him the other night at this roadside bar
I was walking in, he was walking out
We went back inside sat down had a few drinks
but all he kept talking about was . . .

"Glory Days" from Born in the U.S.A.

There was something downright Springsteenian about last night's first game of the American League Championship Series. For Yankee fans anyway. Based on the exuberant conversations I had during the game and the text messages flying in, last night had the feeling of . . . well . . . the glory days. And for me and generational compatriots, that means the era of Yankees baseball that ran from 1996-2000.

Last night was a game that could've been left for dead in the first inning. But Jorge Posada redeemed himself for not catching a too-high fastball by pouncing on a ball off the backstop and tossing a perfect throw to a hustling C.C. Sabathia at home plate to prevent the Rangers from adding to their already impressive three-run opening frame tally. It was game that by the third inning, I was prompted to ask another Yankee fan, "What are the chances the Yanks are in this game going into the 9th?" "50/50" was his reply.

It was a game that was left for dead after the Rangers put a sour end to Sabathia's laborious and lost night by knocking in two more runs in the 4th for a two-run lead. By that point, it was on to Phil Hughes Declarations, like:
• We've heard about Phil Hughes for about six years now. He's been groomed to be an elite pitcher for about that long. It's his time to step up in the biggest start of his career.

It was a game that was more amusement than serious business as Joba Chamberlain and Dustin Moseley (Unsung Hero of the Game v.1: 2 IP, all zeros and four Ks) stifled the Texas bats from the 5th through the 7th. Even Robinson Cano's solo shot in the 7th seemed merely a matter of accounting. A fence post to replace a doughnut.

And then the Yankee 8th. My thoughts after the scoreboard had completely reversed: best post-season rally since Game 1 of the '98 World Series. Certainly the Game 7 2003 ALCS could qualify: down 4-0 after 4.5 innings; down 5-2 going into the bottom of the 8th. But that was a "can't take my eyes off the screen game," never a game that was left for dead, never a game that a Yankee fan totally lost hope based on the opponent, the pitcher, the moment. No, last night was a distant cousin to that aforementioned Game 1 in '98 (down 5-2 going into the 7th, with the Padres hitting David Wells hard in the process) and the ultimate left-for-dead game, the blueprint of the current incarnation of Yankee post-season stick-to-it-tiveness, Game 4 of the '96 World Series (down 6-0 to the Braves going into the 6th).

It was a rally not borne on one swing or one decisive moment, but stitched together slowly . . . pitch-by-pitch, good at-bat after good at-bat and, as Ron Washington knows better than anyone: pitcher-by-pitcher.

The Brett Gardner infield single made you glance at the screen an extra time. A shrug of the shoulders. The Jeter double made you take notice. 5-2, but still plenty of work to do. The Swisher walk (great at-bat, 7 pitches, took the bat off his shoulder once to foul off a nasty slider to keep the count at 3-2) started the avalanche. From then a blur.

Well, I soon lost track of m’ kids ’n’ wife
So many people there I never saw in m’ life
That old ship sinkin’ down in the water
Six thousand people tryin’ t’ kill each other
Dogs a-barkin’, cats a-meowin’
Women screamin’, fists a-flyin’, babies cryin’
Cops a-comin’, me a-runnin’

"Talkin' Bear Mountain Picnic Massacre Blues", Bob Dylan

The thing that struck me about the heart of that rally (specifically the A-Rod and Cano at-bats) was how decisive those plate appearances were. Both swung at the first pitch, both against new pitchers throwing their first pitch of the game. And both drilled the ball for base hits driving in a run apiece.

The futility of Texas in the last two frames (the Ian Kinsler pick-off was a brain lock of Merkleian proportions), only further added fuel to the fire that this was a terrible loss for the Rangers. After the two back-from-the-dead games referenced above, the Yankees didn't lose a game for the rest of those series. Instead of the Yankees playing for their season this afternoon in Arlington, the Rangers are in all likelihood playing for theirs.

2010-09-05T09:42:00.002-04:00

When Winning a Baseball Game . . .
(Becomes The Hardest Thing in the World)

The baseball season is long. When this baseball season, which is now closing in on its winter years, began, the Deepwater Horizon oil rig was still afloat in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it's been that long.

And because of the season's length and because of the amount of games in a given season, winning a singular game is not much of an achievement. Almost every team in baseball has won somewhere between five and seven dozen games. Of course, context changes everything.

A singular game in a post-season will take on a substantial amount of weight and pressure. The enormity of a one-game playoff or a Game 7 speaks for itself.

We've now reached the point in the 2010 season where single games are taking on a weight much bigger than what is felt in April, May, June or July. There are the Cardinals, who are trying to stave off the death of their post-season hopes on a daily basis.

There are the White Sox, who feel like they're on borrowed time a bit, but still only 3.5 games behind Minnesota in the A.L. Central. And those two teams have three games left the middle of this month in Chicago. I'm skeptical of their chances, but there's time.

There are the San Francisco Giants, who have weathered August's tumultuous Storm Lincecum and find themselves in the race for both their division and for the National League's Wild Card. While they're not in do-or-die mode quite yet, a bad stretch of say five days or so could knock them out for good.

And then there are the San Diego Padres, the team I was alluding to in my headline. The Padres. Sidenote: whenever I'm inspired to write by a Joe Posnanski column (which is about three times a week), I feel like I'm picking at his table scraps. Earlier this week, Posnanski wrote about these September Padres and in particular an afternoon game that took place in Arizona on Wednesday. I watched some of the game he wrote about, and had some of the exact same sentiment and reaction to what transpired.

If you're late to the station, the Padres have been a great *baseball story this year. Scratch that, they've been the best story in a season whose final tale will make a nice addendum to any baseball library. Beyond that even, they have the potential to be one of the best baseball stories of the last 20 or 25 years.

*Pulling a Posnanski: Off the top of my head, the best team baseball stories since 1990, in no particular order, would have to include:
• the 2004 Red Sox, specifically the 3-0 comeback against New York . . . I'll be right back (races to the medicine cabinet for some Pepto).
• the 1991 worst-to-first World Series and subsequent Game 7
• the 116-win season by Seattle
• the division-winning dominance of the Braves*
• the post-season run of the 2001 Yankees

*Flabbergasting Tidbit of the Week: as Joe Po pointed out in his column the Braves didn't lose seven games in a row once from 1991-2005. That's 15 seasons.

Of course, something has happened on the way to completing Best Baseball Story of the Decade. There is nothing more palpable in sports than the late season collapse of a baseball team. There is no comparison point.

It happens in a day-by-day manner, little-by-little, one loss at a time. As a fan of the Yankees, my only point of reference is the end of their 2000 campaign when they lost 15 of their last 18 games, including their last seven of the season. However, they had an nine game lead in the division when the stretch started, and the fate of the division never truly came in doubt. They ended up winning the East by 2.5 games.

No, the collapse I'm talking about, the kind that's playing out right now on the west coast are those monumental, gut-wrenching slides. The kind that cost teams their post-season dreams (and dignity), and leave everlasting scars. The '64 Phillies . . . the '95 Angels . . . last year's Tigers . . . the '07 Mets.

For those with morbid curiosity, there's a tidy list right here.

On Wednesday, August 18 the Padres beat the Cubs 5-1 in Wrigley to go up six games in the N.L. West for the first time all year. A week later on the 25th, they beat the D-backs to go up 6.5 games, their high-water mark of the season. They had concluded a stretch in which they had gone 13-3, racking up 4.5 games in the standings. They had scored 90 runs (5.6 R/G) in those 16 games and allowed only 45 (2.8 R/G).

On Thursday the 26th, they lost a who-cares laugher 11-5 to Arizona and lost a 1/2 game in the standings. A weekend series with the defending NL champs loomed in their home park, a three-game set seemingly more vital to the Phillies whose post-season return is anything but certain.

The first two games were excellent, well-pitched, tight baseball games and a good showcase for how the Padres have been winning games this season. The thing is though, they didn't win either, losing 3-2 and 3-1, the former being a 12-inning defeat. By Sunday, they were either gassed or simply flummoxed by Cole Hamels. A sweep at home is always ugly, but this was the Phillies, the lead in the division was still five games, and a series with the lowly D-backs loomed in the desert.

And that's when this thing really started to turn into that boulder at the beginning of Raiders. After scoring three runs in three games vs. Philadelphia, the Padres lost 7-2 then 7-4 in Arizona. Another game chopped off in the standings. Then came the infamous Wednesday afternoon game.

It's Sunday morning and the crisp air (it's definitely a sweatshirt morning) matches the calendar. September. The football season has begun, the baseball season is nearing its conclusion. And in the baseball world, there is no bigger story right now than the plight of the San Diego Padres. The losing streak is now nine; the lead has been whittled, like Chinese water torture I imagine for Padres fans, to 2. Seven games remain with their closest pursuers the San Francisco Giants. The collar is now unbearably tight.

Courtesy of mlb.com:

"It honestly seems like we're going out there not to lose the division, instead of going out there to win the division," Padres pitcher Jon Garland said. "Because there isn't a single soul in baseball that's going to feel sorry for us.
"Right now, we've hit a bad spell, and it plays tricks on your mind. But this is a game of confidence. If you don't have confidence going out there, it's going to show. It's showed. So, we need to find a way to get that confidence back."

Another one:

"We're sitting back, waiting," Padres third baseman Chase Headley said. "It's almost like we're waiting for something bad to happen. We've got to start playing better."

I wrote above that there is nothing like watching a heretofore successful baseball team's season disintegrate. There is no other example when it seems like the athletes are in a vehicle in which they've totally lost control. The brakes don't work, the steering wheel is moving this way and that . . . and they're just hoping the car careens in a nice, grassy field. Instead of into a brick wall.

"It's almost like we're waiting for something bad to happen."

". . . and it plays tricks on your mind"

Yes, the Padres have found themselves in that place where the ghosts of the 2007 Mets and the 1995 Angels and the 2009 Tigers reside. Will they live to tell a post-season tale? Or will they become another addition to baseball's equivalent of a dead letter office?

I'll close with Geoff from Ducksnorts, the preeminent Padres' blog on the net. From September 1:

This team has overachieved all year. People have doubted the Padres, and with good reason. Coming off 99- and 87-loss seasons, and with the second lowest payroll in baseball, they looked like a lost cause.

Now they are playing like one, and I imagine folks are doubting the team again. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have concerns. There are two good ball clubs chasing the Padres, and if the overachievers from San Diego don’t get back to playing smart baseball soon, they could find themselves looking up before long.

The Padres are not the sort of team that can afford to get runners picked off first base down 6-2 or have a pitcher groove an 0-2 fastball to an elite power hitter. They simply do not have the talent to overcome such critical lapses. If the Padres don’t play smart, as they have been doing much of the year, they are toast.

2010-08-04T22:56:00.002-04:00

Some Thoughts After This Statistical Soup (Pt. 2 of 2)

The Yanks remain the best offense in the sport, despite the recent dips in scoring average and other stats. The most pressing issues that face the team are nothing new: age and the resultant declining performance. Derek Jeter turned 36 in June. His .273 average entering today would his worst batting average in a full season ever. By 18 points. His .335 OBP the worst by 17 points; his .384 SLG would be the first sub-.400 in that category ever.

Alex Rodriguez just turned 35. He too is on pace to set full-season career lows in all three "slash stats": .264/.335/.467. His previous career lows in the three categories: .285/.350/.496

These aren't the only concerns in the everyday line-up. Brett Gardner hasn't been the same since taking a ball off his hand in late June. Jorge Posada while maintaining his career average production, has daily, physical concerns that have stunted his playing time. And his back-up hits the ball with the kind of authority that's more in line with 1910, not 2010. Curtis Granderson is having the worst full season of his career, and is proving there is such a thing as a disappointing New York season that nobody will notice.

And with the additions of Berkman and Kearns, Coffee Joe (as Giardi has been dubbed by one of my favorite cyber-scribes, Steven Goldman) has already shown a proclivity to pick line-ups like a blind man playing pin the tail on the donkey. Finding a consistent groove for the everyday line-up will be a key by the time the big September games vs. Tampa approach.

While the team can bear some of the havoc that Father Time is wrecking on some of the team's centerpieces, it will not survive many more blows to the pitching staff if it's going to compete for another World Series championship. The absence of Andy Pettitte from the everyday rotation has already been felt as they've had to deal with one terrible Sergio Mitre start, one workmanlike Dustin Moseley start, and a I-gave-you-length-but-gave-up-runs Moseley loss to the Blue Jays last night. The next time Pettitte's spot comes up is Monday vs. Boston and Jon Lester. Good luck with that.

They've had to deal with Chan Ho Park inflating the team's ERA as soon as April dawned, and Joba Chamberlain, while showing glimpses of excellence, being on the whole underwhelming and maddeningly inconsistent.

But that's all cupcakes and rainbows compared to the real albatross around this staff's proverbial neck. I'm referring of course to the Great Pie Tosser himself, A.J. Burnett. Truth be told, Burnett's never been a great pitcher. But he's always been "solid," throwing just enough gems in a given year to off-set those days in which he has his prototypical four-inning/six-run meltdowns. His full season ERAs have bounced from the low 4.00's to the mid-to-high 3.00's. In years that he's healthy, he's good for 200 innings, a bunch of strikeouts and a bushel of walks.

This season, he's simply fallen off the cliff. ESPN.com currently has him projected out to a 14-14 campaign with an unsightly 4.93 (in the year of the pitcher no less). In seasons with at least 13 starts, it would be his worse ERA since he threw to a 4.70 in 13 starts 10 years ago. While his walk rate is relatively steady, his strikeout rate is down, which is never a good sign for a power pitcher. As Goldman would say, you see that and you start asking ugly questions like "Is he losing something in his pitches?" "Is there an injury at play?" His 6.9 K/9 rate would be his lowest since 2001.

The Rubix Cube of the Yankees' season will be how they structure their post-season pitching rotation. Last season with the help of a little luck (favorable scheduling, which allowed for well-placed off days) and genuinely excellent starting pitching, New York was able to win a World Series with a three-man playoff rotation. That feat hadn't been accomplished since the Blue Jays in the early 1990's. Not only will they have to question the worthiness of trying to pull that trick again (Is it realistic? How effective will Pettitte be, for example, on short-rest, especially if the three series go longer?), but figure out how they are going to fill those rotation spots, regardless of whether it's a 3-man or 4-man October staff.

Conventional wisdom (New York sports talk radio) suggests that the Yankees would be be better served by moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen in the post-season, which would take pressure off the Joba/Robertson (and dare I say, Kerry Wood?) combo? Doing this would leave it up to the Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte triumvirate to again carry the team to another trophy. But Burnett's post-season pedestal has to at least be showing cracks in the foundation in the eyes of the Yankee brass. If Hughes is throwing like he has his past two starts (his fastball is back to popping, with great movement even within the strike zone) do you dare take him out of a playoff start? Especially if Burnett continues on his Season to Nowhere?

Playoff Perspective
It's close enough in the standings to give the series this weekend at Yankee Stadium a fair amount of weight, but not enough for Yankee fans to put on anything other than their usual level of antiperspirant. As if it wasn't looking bleak enough for the Boston Nine, the loss of Kevin Youkilis from line-up further solidifies the chances that Sox will be left out of the post-season party in 2010. BP's Postseason Odds has the Yankees at 77% to make the playoffs. The Rays are at 90% and the Sox at 27%.

Even as much as I respect Boston's grit and their ability to hang in this season when they reasonably could've cashed out two months ago, it's a matter of firepower and I don't see the Yankees going into a big enough slide for Boston to catch them.

The Division
There is nothing in the numbers or my own visual analysis that makes the winner of the A.L. East clear-cut in my mind. With the dip in the Yankee pitching numbers, you can make a case that there's a lean to Tampa now. But Tampa is also playing in the midst of their greatest hot streak of the season and won't win 10 out of every 11 games in August and September. BP gives Tampa a 60% chance to win the division and the Yankees 32%.

October Baseball
When looking at the Yankees' prospects in October, I expect things to be a bit murkier than they were entering October of 2009. For one, there will be no island of preparation in the last month of the regular season, what my friends and I refer to as "October Mode." A time to rest regulars, heal, re-energize, skip spots in the rotation and totally reboot the bullpen. The Yankees value home-field advantage, and rightly so, to the point that they will pursue the Rays into the far reaches of September in order to grab the top spot in the A.L. Win or lose, how much will that chase take out of them by the time they get to October?

I've already talked about the playoff rotation, the construction of the line-up and age and barking injuries taking their quiet toll. However, one the biggest factors of all may be the improved competition the Yankees are likely to face before playing a National League opponent. Texas and Tampa in particular are likely to present much more of a challenge than the Twins or Angels were able to muster in the ALDS and ALCS last season. The Yankees never saw a "deciding game" in any of their three playoff series: no game 5 in the first round, no game 7's. That will not be the case this time around.

In another year, I'd be more likely celebrating a team that has been rubbing elbows with some of the great Yankee teams of all-time and is on pace for over 100 wins. But Tampa, with their stellar pitching staff, very good defense and solid offense, are presenting a difficult challenge not only for the division, but may end up being the biggest obstacle to banner #28 come October.

2010-08-04T22:47:00.002-04:00

Into the Statistical Soup: A.L. East (Part 1 of 2)

June 12. That was the last time before the conclusion of last night's games in the majors that the Yankees didn't have at least a share of first place in the American League's eastern division.

Through 6/12:
40-22 Tampa Bay
39-23 New York
37-27 Boston

The Yankees played so well from June 13-July 29, that there was a sense that they had plopped down a flag on first place and by some baseball decree would remain there for the duration of the season.

In that span of about one-and-a-half months, the Yanks went 26-13, with the course of business as easy as in any team season in recent memory. After 100 games, they had the third best record in the history of the franchise, behind only two all-time teams: the 1998 juggernaut and the last great Mantle team of 1961.

However, over that same time, Tampa went 23-16, essentially staying step-for-step with the history chasers, and especially peaking as the month of August was approaching.

The Red Sox meanwhile, dealing the type of adversity usually reserved for Job, played at a level respectable enough to keep their season breathing: 21-17.

Through June 13th, the Yanks were first in the American League in runs per game at 5.63. Boston was second at 5.43. Tampa was third at 5.29.

Some of the important underlying numbers to runs scored, i.e. either good correlations to scoring runs or indicators of future performance, include OBP, OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and league contexts) and batting average with runners in scoring position.

Through June 13, AL ranks:
OBP
01. New York, .365
02. Boston, .352
T7. Tampa Bay and Texas, .339

OPS+
01. New York, +121
03. Boston, +114
05. Tampa Bay, +103

RISP/BA
01. New York, .278
T2. Boston and Minnesota, .276
T5. Kansas City and Tampa Bay, .274

While Tampa has drifted towards more of a good-but-not-great offense over the course of the season, Boston and New York in particular have been among the cream-of-the-crop offenses in the sport for the duration of the season.

Now to the pitching ledger. Looking at runs allowed per game, ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league contexts) and WHIP.

Through June 13 AL ranks:
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.75
03. New York, 4.00
10. Boston, 4.69

ERA+
01. Tampa Bay, +125
T3. Texas and New York, +108
08. Boston, +103

WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.236
02. New York, 1.248
09. Boston, 1.366

In line with looking at the pitching statistics, it's worth looking at a couple of defensive metrics. Admittedly, I tread very lightly among some of these numbers, as there is constant debate about the best statistics to use for evaluating defensive play, how to apply those statistics and then how to analyze the results. I'll stick with two that I can consider basic barometers of defensive work on a team level and can be used alongside traditional numbers such as chances, putouts, errors and fielding percentage. 1. PADE: Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (BP), it's simply how well a defense turns batted balls into outs adjusted for park factors. 2. BAbip: batting average on balls in play.

Through June 13 A.L. Ranks:
PADE
02. Boston, 2.24
03. New York, 1.64
04. Tampa Bay, 1.60

*BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
02. New York, .280
04. Boston, .285

*Although there are different ways to use and look at BAbip, it can used to gauge a team's defense (the more batted balls in play that are turned into outs, means the more balls that are being run down and caught, means the better the defense). But it could also be indicative of having good pitchers that don't allow a lot of good swings, line drives, well-hit balls, etc. And these factors are not mutually exclusive: a good pitching staff and a good defense typically go hand-in-hand. It could be a gauge of luck.

One of the underrated aspects of this Yankees team has been their defensive play. They've ranked high among BP's defensive metrics nearly all season long. That's how you keep pace with the 1961 Yankees: you do everything well - hit, pitch and field the ball.

While the Yankees have been on cruise control since the speed bump of mid- to late-May, they still found themselves sitting one game out of first place entering today's action. They haven't totally shaken a game Boston team that despite fielding a bunch of vagabonds and no-names were only six back of the Bombers in the loss column with a four-game series slated for the upcoming weekend.

Another look at the stats I listed above through August 3, all American League rankings.

Runs Per Game
01. New York, 5.39
02. Boston, 5.18
03. Tampa Bay, 5.06

In the year of the pitcher, all three teams have cooled off their scoring pace since June 13, losing 0.24, 0.25, and 0.23 respectively.

OBP
02. New York, .350
03. Boston, .347
T4. Texas and Tampa Bay, .340

The Yankees have slid the most of the three teams, as they've lost 15 points of OBP since 6/13. Tampa is virtually the same (.339 vs. 340) and Boston's only down five points.

OPS+
01. New York, +115
T2. Boston and Minnesota, +111
T6. Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, +100

In line with the shift in OBP, the Yanks have the biggest crash here (-6), while Boston (-3) and Tampa (-3) have seen smaller dips.

RISP/BA
5. Boston, .270
6. Tampa Bay, .267
7. New York, .266

There's been a considerable drop-off in this category by all three teams, but none more so than the Yankees, who've gone from 1st in the A.L. at .278 on June 13 to .266 and essentially league average.

Now for the defense.
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.80
06. New York, 4.16
09. Boston, 4.53

The Yankees pitching-and-defense is almost equally distant from Tampa as it is from the Red Sox; that's how much Tampa has separated their run prevention from New York. They have maintained their league-best R/G rate losing adding only 0.05 since 6/13, while the Yanks have jumped 0.16. The Sox have improved.

ERA+
01. Tampa, +119
06. Boston, +106
07. New York, +103

The Yanks have fallen from tied for third to 7th in the league.

WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.224
03. New York, 1.286
09. Boston, 1.341

Tampa and Boston have lowered their WHIPs since 6/13; the Yanks' number has gone up.

PADE
02. Tampa Bay, 1.72
03. Boston, 1.66
04. New York, 1.33

Tampa's improved their number, their division mates have slid.

BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
04. New York, .285
06. Boston, .288

(Part 0f 2 and some general conclusions to follow)

2010-07-24T05:00:00.008-04:00

Music Writing Samples
(5 total: 4 albums and 1 concert)

1. A few years ago I worked on a project, a "Top 50 albums" type of thing. These are some snippets from that.

29: Elliot Smith, XO
In the midst of the weariest and dreariest week that an October could bestow upon us – it’s been raining steadily since Friday; today is Thursday – I dreamed one night that I was listening to a live and perfect rendition of “Sweet Adeline.”

The next day I saw that there was a live show from ’97 waiting to be downloaded. As an old friend wrote to me this week, “what an odd planet.” That show didn’t have “Sweet Adeline,” but the next day I found a show that did. And I listened to that song last night. Fairly muddy sound quality, but soothing nonetheless.

Since purchasing it in the fall of ’98, I’ve always associated this album with the slow and long descent into winter, the fading days, the ever-present nights: sometimes with crystal amazing stars, other times without.

Very steady, purposeful, confident and bursting with life. So sad (or is it simply ironic?) that it is now so clearly associated with death.

I wrote a review of this album within a couple months of first hearing it, and I was effusive in my praise. Used references to Brian Wilson and Paul Simon, among other things. In many ways, all of that still holds up. There are elements to this album, moments, that I find amazing, soul-shaking.

Case in point: virtually every single second of “Tomorrow Tomorrow,”which is one of the great exhalations you’ll ever hear on record. The timbre of the acoustic guitar strings, the perfect rhythm, the layering of the vocal tracks, the in-synchness of it all. An amazing work.

34: Husker Du, New Day Rising
For the sake of dividing and conquering, there are two schools of Husker Du fans. The first school, the dominant of the two, gravitates toward the band’s earlier work, i.e. pre-Flip Your Wig. The other school prefers the back end of the catalog: the Warner Bros. years. Of course, the large majority of Husker fans, especially ones who got into the band after their demise, generally waver between all the releases, finding strengths in everything.

In a poll of fans, you’re probably likely to get two answers for the band’s epoch: Zen Arcade (by far the band’s most publicized work over the last 20 years) would be one choice; the follow-up, New Day Rising, would be the other. This album is firmly entrenched with punk sensibilities (there is truly desperate, manic vocalizations in the title track), and yet foreshadows the more precise pop structures to come. “I Apologize” is Mould’s first clearly identifiable everyman-relationship song, with lines like “Take out the garbage / Anyway the dishes don’t get done,” and features a catchy chord progression that could pass for British invasion pop if not for the amplified guitar fuzz. Hart’s goofy-yet-convincing “Books About UFOs” is like nothing in the band’s catalog, and certainly convinces the audience that this band isn’t adhering to any notions of what they should be doing.

There is also a great leap forward for the band in terms of lyrical content on this album. While Zen Arcade has its memorable lines and imagery, there is nothing on that magnum opus as subtly brilliant as Hart’s “Terms of Psychic Warfare” or Mould’s musings on lost youth and the landscapes of our lives in “Celebrated Summer.”

The more the Huskers moved forward, it seems the more conventional they became. That might not be totally fair; Warehouse: Songs and Stories, for sure, is groundbreaking in many ways, mostly for the intense, honest atmosphere it creates and sustains over four LP sides. But here, in New Day Rising is a wonderful melding of talent, ambition, past, present and future.

43: Bob Dylan, John Wesley Harding

This might be the oddest album in my collection. This is just a bizarre, odd album. On one level, it sounds like a man who’s losing his mind. But that’s just one level. There’s another level that sounds like this singer is just toying with us, getting a laugh on our behalf. Placing all of these seamless riddles in front of us with no plausible answers. On another level, the album sounds brutally honest, a weary man breathing out the only air he can.

A fascinating collection of songs.

There are some amazingly vivid landscapes and characters in these songs; it plays in your mind almost like a moving picture, with all the dialogue and colorful characters. John Wesley Harding, the air around Tom Paine, St. Augustine, the little neighbor boy, Frankie Lee and Judas Priest, the Wicked Messenger, the distraught and emotionally disabled tenant pleading to his landlord for leniency… and on and on.

While not his most uplifting or energetic work, it is simply inexhaustible.

44: Bruce Springsteen, Nebraska
I’ve heard some sketchy things about Bruce Springsteen over the years, things that make him seem more ingenuous than he probably is on his worst day. Was he a record company’s pawn for awhile? Probably. Did he contrive an image that could be packaged and sold like a can of beans on a store shelf? Maybe. But so did the Beatles and Elvis Presley and nearly every other big-name act in the history of popular music.

I’m not a huge Springsteen fan, mind you, but I do think he’s written some memorable songs. And if he doesn’t deserve 100% of the fame and fortune that he has gained in his life (based on his talent:fame quotient), then I can’t say it’s less than 75% or so.

Taped directly to a Tascam four-track recorder (with a few overdubs sprinkled throughout), this album plays like a collection of demos. There’s the vocal flub in one of the last choruses in “Atlantic City.” A similar trip of the tongue in “Johnny 99.” It’s Springsteen with his guard down a bit, which gives the proceedings the appearance (if not the reality) of being more honest, more genuine, more real. It’s certainly his rawest effort to date.

Four years ago I took a graduate class, The Modern Short Story. Great class. Studied the masters of the genre in chronological order: Poe, Chekov, Hemingway, Joyce, O’Connor . . . When we got to the part of the course that focused on Raymond Carver, our professor urged us to break out our copies of Nebraska, which was, in his estimation, the perfect soundtrack to Carver’s stories.

It was a cute pop-culture reference, but there’s also the ring of the truth to the comparison.

Nebraska is this little compact collection of songs, all intertwining and working together, like a true thematic collection of short stories. And, like Carver’s work, landscape is key. The barren landscapes, empty lives and lost dreams that echo and reverberate throughout the record at once arouse feelings of sadness, hope, melancholia and nostalgia.

Cynics, I’m sure, would say this is Springsteen’s overt homage to Bob Dylan and Woody Guthrie, an attempt at striving for an ideal that he can’t quite reach resulting in a faux folk record. I say “hooey” to that. Characterize it however you want, this is a startling collection of songs. From the wistful ruminations of “Mansion on the Hill,” to the charged and energetic “Johnny 99,” to the urgent and subtly intense brooding of the singer in “State Trooper,” the album, like Carver’s stories, are reflections of the down trodden at the end of the 20th Century in America. The road weary. The Tom Joads of the American 1980s.

Devotees of Springsteen’s will swear that he is the Chosen One for the working class of the modern times. A performer with a blue-collar ethic. A spinster of honest tales and poignant insights.

I’m not willing to put him in the same class as many of his singer/songwriter contemporaries. Suffice to say, he’s no Neil Young. Paul Simon can run songwriting circles around him. And he’s not even on the same planet as Dylan.

However, when things do come together for him, when he is at his pinnacle, he deserves to be noticed. The way he delivers and sings the line, “There’s a beautiful full moon rising … above the mansion on the hill…” That is as good as he gets, and it can be very, very good. This album is Springsteen at his best.

2. Review of a Bob Mould solo acoustic show, Northamption, MA, August, 2003 
Saturday night’s show at the Iron Horse didn’t start out with words that you want to hear at a Bob show. “This is going to be the laid-back show tonight.” In my mind I heard “Lack of Intensity,” and groaned a little bit at the prospect of an unspirited show.

That proclamation, or warning, hung around the night like a neon sign in the back of the stage. However, as the show progressed it became less important that this wasn’t raging Bob (“Poison Years” wouldn’t have fit in at all) than the fact he found a unique groove, stuck with it, and by the end yielded some amazing results as the set wore on.

This is one of those shows that it wouldn’t do it justice to just pick out the highlights; I really have to start at the beginning and move forward. Maybe a little longer review as a result, but necessary to capture the feel of the night.

“Wishing Well,” true to his opening comment, was definitely “laid back” – played in a slower tempo than past versions, lacking that familiar manic drive that usually starts things off. But in its own way, it became mesmerizing, almost a little hypnotic. He didn’t lose the unique feel he created from the onset, and as he hit the instrumental break in the middle, the song went to another level. That was the beginning of a theme that would dominate the night. His instrumental breaks and solos were awe-inspiring tonight.

It was evident early that what he was lacking in raw-emotion-intensity, he was making up for with honesty, *excellent* playing and vocals to fit the theme, i.e. more singing, less shouting.

The first nine songs all stayed within this framework, some lacking the electricity to make them noteworthy (“Your Favorite Thing,” “No Reservations,” “High Fidelity”). Others were very sharp, keeping the set from floating away into the ether; indeed, it struck me at some points that Bob was a bit detached. Not much interaction with the crowd at all ... a couple of smiles or shrugs after a song was over, but that's about it.

“I Apologize” was great, although I think he might have clipped the last verse (“same as the first”). Rhythm was right-on, and didn’t waver one iota. Received one of the best crowd reactions of the night. “Thumbtack” was also an early stand-out. Great guitar work, as he mixed up the playing quite a bit. It was far from just straight-ahead strumming. A lot of arpeggio-type work with the lower strings, and one of his best vocals of the night. Really strong. “Hoover Dam,” for a more melodic vocal that harkened back to the early days of the song, and the instrumental break in “Hear Me Calling” also deserve a quick mention.

Turning point #1 was “Brasilia.” Not the focused, steady versions of the past that build and build to that final crescendo. But it was unique. At the end, Bob dubbed it as an “interesting version,” and when someone shouted that it was great, he confirmed that it was a good one.

The best way to describe it is ‘all over the map.’ At the start it seemed to have that potential for being a classic quiet-to-loud version, as he was barely strumming at all. It didn’t take long for the song to become the night’s exploratory statement. It seemed to wander away, then re-focus. He toyed with his vocal throughout, even throwing in a falsetto-type voice for a couple of lines.

Where the song really came together was during the choppy section (“I wish I could tell my story…). At that point, he really let loose on the guitar, not just settling for the strum/mute technique he usually uses. There were a variety of hammer-ons, creating an instrumental flourish that I’ve never heard in that part of the song. Instead of belting out “Oh Lord, what happened,” he held back the yell for a few moments and instead stressed “this way.” As my friend pointed out, definitely a candidate for moment of the night.

The crowd was especially appreciative, and the mood of the night changed for good. A show that had meandered a little bit had found a focal point, and from here on out, I enjoyed it as much as any Bob show since ’98 at the Fez in New York.

One more acoustic song left, and it was a strong one: “Gauze of Friendship.” I don’t know if I should go on at length at how good the new songs sounded, and how that relates to what I think of how Body of Song is progressing. I guess I’ll leave that for another post, and just say that the new stuff sounded great. I can only hope their studio incarnations retain the energy and enthusiasm they were played with tonight.

At that point, I thought he’d be switching to the backing tracks. Although I wouldn’t have minded a live “180 Rain” or “Slay/Sway,” I’m glad he took a break from the DAT. Instead we got *one* of the best electric sets I’ve seen him play. I don’t think anything will ever top Tramps from March of ’97, but this felt downright triumphant in spots. I couldn’t wipe the smile off my face for the rest of the night.

Nine electric songs, including the three in the encore. Not a weak one in the bunch, and it just seemed to get better and better as it went along. It didn’t hurt that the sound in the room was warm and loud and clear by that point. Exactly how you’d want it to be. The timbre of the guitar was *perfect*, and although Bob’s vocals were drowned out a little as you’d expect, they were in a good spot in the mix. Gone was the troublesome reverb that plagued the sound of the last Iron Horse show back in November.

Although most of us appreciate Bob’s willingness to move forward in his career and keep things fresh, I’m guessing all of us, on a given night, want to catch that glimpse of what was: the raging guitar, that energy of bands past. And I know I’ve voiced my displeasure in this space over his under-utilized guitar skills in recent years. That, as much as anything, is what made Saturday night special. Not that I hadn’t seen or heard this before, but it was nice to be reminded that it’s still there. He was flying on the guitar during the electric set.

“Weak From Desire” (a distant relative to “First Drag of the Day”) set-up the feel of the electric set immediately: great sound in the room, excellent vocals, good vibe. The solo in “Trade” fit in well with the slower tempo – he didn’t rush through it, took his time and didn’t miss a note. I don’t think the gorge between the studio version on Modulate and how this song comes across live can be over-emphasized. “Surveyors and Cranes” was probably the best I’ve heard it; granted, that’s only about four versions’ worth of listening.

The three-song run to finish the set … geez, I’ve feel like I’ve gushed enough, but it’s worthy of any praise I have left. “Circles” (a distant relative to “Black Sheets of Rain”), may have been the song of the night. Amazing guitar work. Here’s hoping he can bottle some of that up when it comes to getting it on record. If this was the version to be released, I would take it in a second.

He followed that with renditions of “Act We Act” and “Celebrated Summer” that were off the charts. They’re almost a blur now. It was just great to see him play that well… It didn’t hurt my impression that it was the first electric “Celebrated Summer” I’ve seen. It seems like I’d been waiting to see him play that song electric for years.

When Bob returned for the encore, he said something like, “Sorry I haven’t talked much, but I got in the ‘zone,’ and I just wanted to stay there,” which drew a nice response from the crowd.

The perfunctory combo of IICCYM—Egoverride—Makes No Sense could have put a typical end on an atypical night. But it didn’t; Bob didn’t lose a step to the finish. The IICCYM solo, especially, stood-out. “Ego,” which never has grabbed me much in the live setting, was strong – at this point I knew it was coming down the stretch and I was just enjoying the moment. Ditto for Makes No Sense – it always seems a little ordinary, but here it was just smooth. A nice version.

I could’ve listened to him play till about 4 in the morning. It was that kind of night.

After the show, he said something to the effect that he wouldn’t dub the show as “good or bad. But that it was an interesting one.” I reiterated that I thought his playing, the solos and instrumental breaks in particular, was something to behold. And he confirmed that it was “a player’s night” and that he had all of his “chops” working. Considering that he hadn’t played the guitar between the West Coast shows and Boston the night before, he suggested that he plays better when he hasn’t picked up the guitar much.

Whatever the reason, it was a good one. A reaffirmation.

2009-10-06T18:52:00.014-04:00

One-Game Playoff in Minnesota
updated: 8:23 p.m.

I was about to write "Rick Porcello is writing a story that will go down in Tigers' lore." It was the bottom of the 6th and the rookie had just struck out American League batting champion Joe Mauer for the second out of the inning. I walked out of the room to reset the internet connection and came back just in time to see Jason Kubel launching a home run into the seats above the baggy in right. 3-2 Tigers.

One batter later (a walk to Cuddyer), and now he's been yanked by Jim Leyland. Zach Miner coming in from the pen.

Porcello was excellent today: 5.2, 4 hits, 2 runs (as of right now), 1 earned, 2 walks, and a career-high tying 8 K's.

An excellent start to post-season baseball.

Update 1: 7:01 p.m.

Bases loaded for the Twins now. Miner's given up a single and hit a batter, pinch-hitter Brendan Harris. Two outs.

Ron Darling as the analyst makes Chip Carey (edited, orig. I wrote "Skip") tolerable. Darling is excellent. Wish I could combine the radio broadcast PBP announcer (Dan Shulman) with the TV color guy . . . how could a team would that be?

Tolbert's up, and Miner's behind in the count 2-1 and looks very shaky.

Hit decently, but directly to dead center. Can o' corn for Granderson.

3-2 going to the 7th.

Gotta like the Twins' chances though, especially considering how maligned the Detroit pen has been this year.

Update 2: 7:07 p.m.

Baker still in the game. At 84 pitches to start the inning.

Inge/Laird/Santiago due up.

In case you're wondering here's the complete list of all the tie-breaker games in baseball history, courtesy of Baseball Reference.

Inge walks to lead-off the 7th and Gardy's going to the Pen to bring in Jon Rauch.

Baker really hung in there. He gave up the three-spot in the 3rd and didn't look long for this game. But he really cruised through the middle innings. A workmanlike performance.

Update 3: 7:18 p.m.

Laird pops up the sac bunt attempt. One out. Laird really pulled the bat back on the heater, and wound up in a bad bunt position.

After getting a fly out from Santiago, Gardenhire is changing pitchers again. This time going with Jose Mijares to face Granderson.

The Twins are the first team to play in a tiebreaker playoff in back-to-back years. In looking at that list it's interesting to note that there were no extra games to decide a playoff spot from 1981-1994. Obviously the implementation of the Wild Card round has increased the occurrence of these games: this is the sixth since 1995 and the third in three seasons.

Mijares not missing by much, but down 3-1 in the count.

The other sizable gap between games like this was 1963-1977, years that were book-ended by the Dodgers-Giants playoff series in '62 and the Bucky Dent game in '78.

Base hit for Granderson on a 3-2 count. A guy who is a tougher out in my mind than his numbers suggest. The Tigers have a bunch of those types of guys . . . Polanco . . . Guillen.

1st & 3rd, 2 outs.

Another pitcher for the Twins as the conveyor belt continues to roll: Matt Guerrier on the way in to pitch to Polanco.

Update 4: 7:21 p.m.

Huge spot in the game. Base hit here really opens up some breathing room for the Tigers.

Got out of it. Fastball in on the hands, ground ball to short.

Update 5: 7:33 p.m.

Miner still in. Punto leading off.

Nick Punto is not one of those guys that I envision as "better than his numbers." When I see .227, that pretty much sums it up.

Good at-bat here though. Seven pitches in, 2-2 count. Now 3-2.

Base hit, of course. Line drive to left.

For all the crap that the Metrodome has gotten over the years (and one of my new favorite writers playfully piled it on this morning), it sure looks like a fun building to be in for big games. My memories of '87 and '91 are still vivid; I just remember the place absolutely rocking back in those years. And it's jumping tonight as well.

Gardy decided not to bunt with Span. Darling was surprised, for what it's worth.

Struck him out on a sharp slider. No advance of the runner. Remember that at-bat if the Twins don't score in this inning.

Orlando Cabrera, with the reputation as a good situational player . . . just drilled one into the left field seats. 4-3 Twinkies.

Well maybe "drilled" is being generous. A low line-drive it just sneaked over the fence in left, beyond the outstretched glove of Raburn in left. Unbelievable.

Six outs away from a historic collapse by the Tigers.

Base hit Mauer.

The game is starting to reach it's "inevitable feeling" stage. As in it's hard to envision Minnesota not winning this game now. Posnanski is right: this building just doesn't want to die.

New pitcher for Detroit.

Update 6: 7:41 p.m.

Fu Te-Ni got Kubel and Brandon Lyon was brought in to get Michael Cuddyer, which he did on a comebacker to the mound.

Onto the 8th.

Update 7: 7:56 p.m.

Guerrier still in. Ordonez/Cabrera/Guillen.

And now the only sound in the building is the hootin' and hollerin' in the Tigers dugout. Home run Magglio Ordonez.

Four to four.

Three outs away from Nathan facing the bottom of the order . . . oh well. It's a new game.

Cabrera grounds out.

Darling: "They were tied after 162. Why wouldn't they be tied now?"

Juice in the Metrodome, on a scale of 1-10, went from about a 15 to a 2.5 on one swing. Flat, flat, flatsky.

Guillen walks with one out.

Good AB by Raburn, and the crowd is slowly starting to resuscitate itself. Full count.

A lot of throws over to first to check on the pinch-runner Ramirez.

Ball 4. 1st and 2nd now, 1 out.

Guerrier out. I think Nathan's coming in, as he was the only one I saw warming up before the commercial break. Makes you think they probably would've been better off just having Nathan start the 8th, but I know Gardenhire was trying to avoid having to use his closer at all costs in the 8th.

Update 8: 8:02 p.m.

It is Nathan.

Big out. Got Inge to pop up to 2nd on a high fastball, 2-0 count. Ball was high, probably was ball three.

Two outs.

Laird.

Shocker: Nathan's fastball looks great. Crisp, good movement.

Nice stop by Mauer on a slider in the dirt. 2-1 count.

Buried a fastball in on the fists to tie him up. 2-2

Gotta stick with the fastball here, no?

Slider, of course. A beauty on the outside corner that froze Laird looking.

Onto the bottom of the 8th.

Great game.

Update 9: 8:10 p.m.

I've now been live blogging for over an hour, which is probably some kind of record for this venerable, old blog. It just struck me that this site is the baseball blogosphere's equivalent of the Metrodome! Yes, it's a perfect fit. Under-utilized, ugly, not the best place to get your baseball information, but dadgumit (and yes, I just wrote "dadgumit"), this blog just refuses to die.

Lyon still in for Detroit. One out on a groundout.

Another ground ball, this time to third. Two outs.

That should be my new tagline: The Metrodome of Baseball Blogs. Perfect.

Matt Tolbert. A name I wasn't familiar with at all until the last couple of weeks.

Swing and a miss. End of inning.

Onto the 9th, game tied at four.

Update 10: 8:23 p.m.

So sick of the $5 footlong song.

9-1-2 for the Tigers here in the 9th.

Beautiful bunt by Santiago down the first base line for a base hit. And just as impressive of a slide into the first base bag to avoid the tag by Cuddyer. Spectacular play.

I think you have to bunt Granderson here . . . but maybe that's just me. He does have good numbers against Nathan, but with those three guys behind him I'd be very tempted to get that runner into scoring position.

First pitch: wasn't squaring, strike one.

Swing and a miss, strike two.

Worked out well. 1st and 3rd with nobody out after a jam-shot base hit to right field.

Polanco. Nathan's fastball doesn't look as good as it did in the 8th, and Darling just alluded to that. TBS gun showed it at 94-95. This inning it's been at 93.

1-2 after a good slider.

Cooked a fastball up to 95. Foul ball.

2-2.

Great slider on the inside corner to freeze him. 1 out. Miles to go before he sleeps, however.

Ordonez.

Amazing.

Line shot to short and Cabrera threw back to 1st to double off Granderson who went way too far off the bag.

A double play sends the game to the bottom of the 9th tied at four.

A classic considering the circumstances. Other duties call at this point, but I'll try and check back in for a wrap-up later tonight.

Good stuff.

2009-09-16T19:20:00.002-04:00

Breaking Up the Day-to-Day Routine
The Shaken Not Stirred Edition

The post-season begins three weeks from today, Wednesday, October 7. This September has been one of the worst in recent baseball history, with barely a race to be found. The Yankees dashed out to the best record in baseball by mid- to late-August, and have been able to maintain a healthy lead both for the division and homefield throughout the playoffs. It's been a snooze-fest, as it's mostly been a month of housekeeping: keeping players healthy; giving regulars consistent time off; and at the same time maintaining some semblance of a competitive edge. This has been the case for New York and St. Louis, and to a lesser extent Anaheim, Philadelphia and Los Angeles.

The Yankees in particular have done an admirable job, going 10-5 through the first half of this month, beating up mostly on the bottom-feeders of their own division, including the comatose Rays who simply ran out of steam after a great year-and-a-half run

Which brings me to yesterday's fracas in the Bronx, which got a lot of attention both on national radio this morning, and on WFAN this afternoon. My initial impression was that last night's on-field brawl reeked of being borne out of boredom, more than any real brooding rivalry with the Jays or a vendetta against a junkball-throwing lefty. Toronto has probably been ready for this season to end for two months now, are sick of looking at the Yankees, and the Yankees (really Jorge Posada) had no problem obliging as I'm sure the day-to-day routine has grown monotonous; they've been waiting for the post-season to start for weeks now. Throwing a little spark into an otherwise meaningless night is not the worst thing in the world for a team that's been playing warm-up games for the better part of a month now.

I heard reels and reels of admonishment directed at Posada for "being dumb" and for putting the season at risk; his own manager in fact stated his disapproval of the turn of events. And all that is fine & well, but as far as I know no one did get hurt, and I don't think there is going to be any long-term damage from the fight. I'm not saying I condone Posada's actions; he clearly lost his head and perspective of the situation. But sometimes it's not the worse thing to have teams riled up and woken up and shaken up a bit, especially in the midst of tedium. Even if it's not for a particularly smart reason.

This installment of the Yankees has handled October Mode better than any other outfit since the 1998 juggernaut that never let the peddle off the metal and rolled to 114 wins in the regular season. Like that Yankees team, this once really hasn't let down on the throttle, despite subtle signs of fatigue and some lethargy in the past five games (2-3). How this will translate into October is anyone's guess, although some will at least try and make an educated one.

Last week in the esteemed Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman ranked the fortunes of all the probable post-season combatants by what the Baseball Prospectus guys have dubbed the "Secret Sauce." Although predicting post-season series outcomes can be bit of a fool's game, there are three key areas that correlate to post-season wins better than others. They are:

1. A power pitching staff, as measured by strikeout rate.
2. A good closer.
3. A good defense.

Nate Silver first wrote about this in 2006 at Baseball Prospectus, before he moved on to bigger things like predicting presidential elections:

Of the dozens of team characteristics that we tested for statistical significance, in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series, these were the only three that mattered. Ending the year hot doesn’t make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense.

More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then.

So the huge emphasis that the general populace (measured by stations like this one and shows like this one and when I'm talking with my buddies over a couple of cold ones) puts on pitching in the post-season is sound. What our experience and eyes and ears tell us is backed up the stats in this case.

Back to Goldman's round-up, here is how the likely post-season entrants rank in this three-ring measurement in MLB:

20 - Philadelphia Phillies
11 - Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim
10 - St. Louis Cardinals
06 - Colorado Rockies
05 - Detroit Tigers
04 - Boston Red Sox
02 - Los Angeles Dodgers
01 - New York Yankees

Some random thoughts on this list:

1. There is nothing easy about the Yankees 1st round ALDS match-up with the Tigers, which is something I've been alluding to on & off throughout the summer. And that's because of Detroit's starters (namely their ace) and their wily, old manager. Would anyone be surprised if Justin Verlander outduels C.C. Sabathia in a 3-2 ballgame in Game 1? Of course not. And that would lead to a season-on-the-line Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for 2009's best team, which deserves more attention. I'll try and do that tomorrow.

2. So much of the post-season's final outcome lies in the hands of match-ups. While the Phillies don't rank well in the numbers that correlate the best with post-season success, would anyone rank them as the team least likely to win it all? No way, man. I'd put them ahead of the Angels (who are going to have get through Boston & most likely NY); the Tigers (ditto); the Rockies; and at the very least on equal footing with the two other N.L. teams.

3. I still think the two best teams in baseball are Boston & New York, and they're well represented in the Top 3. And the Dodgers, despite their mid-summer malaise have been the best team in the N.L. virtually from wire-to-wire. The Phils, Cards & Dodgers are all bunched up as far as number of wins, but the Dodgers +154 run differential is tops in the bigs, ahead of New York (+148) and Boston (+126).

4. It would be ironic if this is the year the Angels finally get the better of the Red Sox in a big spot. Their 790 runs scored is second best in the sport, but they've allowed 688, which is good for only 8th in the American League. The pendulum swinging away from pitching & defense and more to offensive has made for smooth sailing in the regular season, but as the sauce suggests doesn't bode well for October.

As a sidenote, yes I'm well aware that the Sox have knocked 2.5 games off the Yankees lead in the blink of an eye. The 8-game loss-column lead six days ago has drifted down to 5, as Boston has made us all feel a little foolish for giving a moment's thought that Texas could challenge them for the Wild Card. I'll address this if & when that number hits 3, and only if that happens before next weekend's series in New York.

2009-09-06T08:22:00.002-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee
(The Mid-Field Collision Edition)

Things remain status quo in the Wild Card races after yesterday's action. The Red Sox and Rangers both lost on the road; the Giants and Rockies both won behind excellent starting pitching performances. Matt Cain shutdown the Brewers for his 13th win of the season. Jose Contreras had enough gumption & guile to quiet the snakes' bats, in his first National League start.

We go again today: Boston up two on Texas, Colorado up one game on San Fran.

Yesterday goes on the calendar as one of the best dozen or so sports days of the year. Has to. The formula is pretty simple. You take a dose of crisp, late-summer weather as a backdrop and a holiday weekend to boot. And in that context you have the first full day of football (as in noon to midnight) since last winter, and meaningful baseball games. As I tend to, add some music to the proceedings and you have one of those decompression days that the routine of daily life and the work week make essential.

The kickoff of the college football season must've sharpened my sports antennae, because I found myself wrapped into the baseball more than I've been all week. Picked up the Sox game when they were already down 3-0 and getting perfectly blanked by Floyd. (The 2009 White Sox are going to be forgotten by history, but two perfect games in one season would've made them referenced forever.) Watched a good chunk of the Rockies-Arizona game while also keep my eyes on a very entertaining Virginia Tech-Alabama prime time game on ABC.

And so much for Nevada hanging with Notre Dame . . . read a lot of analysis that at least liked the dog to cover. It didn't even look like they belonged on the same field, as the Irish had their first shutout in seven years, and their QB kept his detractors at bay for at least one week with a flawless performance against an over-matched defense.

It sets up an interesting installment in the match-up of old war horses next week in Ann Arbor. Both teams coming off cakewalks against inferior competition; both coaches on extremely warm seats; the fates of both programs in somewhat of a purgatory right now, as both have been passed by more modern offenses and more talented rosters in recent years (USC, Florida, Ohio State, etc.). At one point I was much more into college football than I am today. As I got older and time constraints became tighter, there was no way I could justify doing do two full days of football viewing in the fall. And without a true connection to an alma mater or growing up weened on the gameday culture like kids in Alabama and Oklahoma, college football was the sport to go. I'm still tuned in enough to know the basics: head coaches; best teams; title favorites, etc. But if you're looking me to name the skill position players, let alone the offensive linemen, on USC or Florida, forget about it. I could name maybe half-a-dozen starting quarterbacks.

From the late 80's and through the 90's, my favorite college football game of the year was Michigan-Notre Dame, and some of those echoes still remain. It will be a centerpiece of next weekend.
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The local daily runs a section every Sunday called "5 Things We Learned About the Red Sox (or Yankees) Last Week." #2 this week is: Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Papelbon could make for a six-inning game against the Red Sox down the road.

And I'm reminded about how transient success on the baseball diamond can be when it comes to October. The Yankees' meteoric rise to top of the baseball pyramid could be just wisps of a vapor trail if they lose that first game against Detroit. Boston's walking-wounded journey to the post-season, so grueling and ugly in nature right now, could be a forgotten trip of the past if Beckett & Lester are clicking and their bullpen is missing bats in the late innings.

The only thing that can stamp this season for the Yankees as a success and something memorable is a championship. Is it harsh to pull the historical rug out on a unit that will win 100+ games and have some of the most gaudy power numbers of all time? Not in the context of a cap-less league and a $208 million payroll. As a Yankee fan, that's what comes with the package when you sign on the dotted line. True enjoyment of success is always held at bay. It's always an extended October away.
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Billy Wagner has been almost perfect in his three appearances with the Red Sox so far. Here's his situational usage so far:

083009: Pitched with the lead in top of the 8th in a 7-0 game at Fenway Park against Toronto. 1/1/0/0/0/3
090109: Pitched with the lead (6-2) in the bottom of 7th in an 8-4 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/0/2
090903: Pitched with the lead (6-3) in the bottom of the 7th in a 6-3 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/1/2

His total line: 3/1/0/0/1/7

Right now Boston's having a tough time just getting the ball to bullpen with the game in good shape. But once it's there, it's in good hands. Even Bard, who has struggled over the last month, still has some great peripheral numbers. Since the two-homer game in New York on August 9, Bard has thrown nine innings. His line in that time, almost a full month of work: 9/8/5/5/4/14. That's a crummy ERA, but the walk total isn't terrible and the strikeout number is excellent. He's only given up one home run in that time as well.

This is still a bullpen that misses bats as well as any in baseball. In the grind of post-season games, that is typically a weapon that is very difficult to counter.
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Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.

2009-09-05T09:47:00.002-04:00

Saturday Morning Snapshot
History's Horizons

I've watched very little baseball this week. The Yankees have been on autopilot for two weeks now, maintaining October Mode better than they have at any time in the last decade. Overall, it's shaping up to be a ho-hum September.

The races in baseball's two eastern divisions are over. The N.L. Central is cooked with the Cards now up 11.5 on the Cubs, and the A.L. Central is on the verge of being locked up with Detroit now six up after last night.

The Dodgers are maintaining a comfortable cushion, while the Angels are doing enough to keep breathing space between themselves and the plucky Rangers.

All that remains are the two Wild Card races to whet our appetite before the October tournament begins. It looks like the Giants & Rockies are going to have great race to the last week of the season. Unfortunately, the teams have only one series left with each other: September 14-16, at San Francisco.

My words from Thursday, July 30:

It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.

If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.

If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.

Minor miracle or not, the Rangers are now two behind the Red Sox for the American League's last post-season ticket. No other team is even in the mix.

On the morning of August 1, Boston had a 2.5 game advantage on Texas. Since that day the Sox have gone 17-14, while the Rangers have gone 18-14. In a difficult stretch that I figured would knock them out for good, Texas has stood toe-to-toe with the beast from the east.

Where Do We Go From Here?
Over the last 30 days, as their records were suggest, Texas & Boston have played almost dead-even baseball, offensively. Boston's scored 158 runs. Texas: 148. Boston's hitting at a .270/.351/.483 clip. Texas: .283/.345/.468.

Boston has hit seven more homers in that time span, 13 more doubles.

Where the two teams' paths have diverged is on the mound. In the last 30 days, Texas has allowed 117 runs, 2nd fewest in the A.L. to the Yankees' 116. Boston has allowed 150 in that same time period, better than only Toronto and Baltimore.

The Red Sox rotation now has a perch for Paul Byrd, called off his couch like Vinny Testeverde used to be. And it's never good when a roster move is analogous to picking up ol' man Vinny. The venerable and heretofore reliable Tim Wakefield is trying to trick Father Time just like he tricks American League batters with his unpredictable knuckleballs. Wakefield gets the ball today in Chicago, but it's been revealed that his back troubles this year ain't the kind that a few Advil are going to make go away. According to MLB.com, there is a loose fragment in his back will have to be surgically removed during the offseason, and officially he's on a start-to-start basis. "He might not be able to take the ball every five days or six," manager Terry Francona said. "But we'll just kind of see how he does."

If he can get out to the mound, good things can still happen for Wake; see his last start on August 26, the only appearance between July 8 and today, for proof of that: 7/6/1/1/1/3. But the Sox need him to take the ball every fifth day now from here to the first weekend in October. The alternative is throwing the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time rookie, Junichi Tazawa back into the rotation.

Boston's seemingly well-crafted plans for their starting rotation have crumbled into flawed blueprints at this point. They're now holding their five-man together with chicken wire, spit and chewing gum.

Of course, the Sox bullpen remains a strong suit. I can't find a site that allows to do a double-split (relievers numbers over the last 30 days, for example), but as far as season-to-date, Boston's pen ranks 1st in ERA (3.57); 5th in BAA; 4th in K/BB; 3rd in K/9; they rank a modest 7th in bullpen WHIP.

So some of the underlying numbers aren't eye-popping, but the overall body of work is still pretty darn good.

In the meantime, Texas made it through the hornet's nest portion of their schedule in August relatively unscathed and now enjoy a stretch where they are playing the Orioles, Indians, Mariners and A's from now until September 16. They have seven games still to play against the Angels, so the division title is still up for grabs to a certain extent. But even if they're relegated just to the Wild Card hunt, the Rangers have to be considered worthy challengers now.

In the same stretch, the Sox will be going against the White Sox, O's, Tampa & the Angels. This is the Rangers' chance to make a definitive move at Boston, as after September 17, the Sox play at Baltimore (their second home); at Kansas City (for four!); at New York (games the Sox will need, and the Yanks' will be sleep-walking); and two carcasses at home in Toronto & Cleveland to wrap things up.

If I stretch my imagination out to its furthest perimeter, I still can't envision the Sox not making it to October Baseball. Things will have to seriously malfunction: a sweep in Chicago; a split in Kansas City; a series loss to a Toronto or a Baltimore. By Boston taking two out of three in Tampa this week, essentially knocking the Rays dead for the winter in the process, they showed me there's still enough in the tank to shuffle through this starting pitching wasteland, gut things out and start anew in the first week of October. It would be shocking if they weren't around to see it.

There's been a lot chatter lately about this Yankee team being the best Bomber outfit since the late 90's. And indeed, over the last month New York has scored the most runs in the American League and allowed the fewest. Something the '98 team did over a full season by a wide margin.

Gammons said yesterday that their pitching is in the best shape it has been in since "the late 90's." Pete Abraham shared some revealing trends & figures that suggest this team is setting up some fancy historical footnotes, that can only be validated by a successful post-season. When the Yankees were establishing a dynasty a decade ago, they played the Rangers in three out of four opening rounds: '96, '98, '99. The fortunes of that first series turned on a late-inning rally and subsequent defensive misplay in Game 2, with the Yankees down 0-1 in the series and on the verge of a quiet exit. (How different would history look if that had happened?) The other series were two of the cleanest white-washes in the history of the post-season.

It would be a surprising coincidence if the Yankees, in a season that is beginning to summon up only recently departed ghosts, play Texas in the 1st round once again.

2009-08-25T19:03:00.002-04:00

The Object of the World's Loathing
(The Yankees' October Mode Edition)

The Yankees are back home in New York tonight after completing a 7-3 road trip over the last two weeks. In the process of that trip, they put to rest all realistic thoughts that they'll be challenged for the American League East title over the final six weeks of the regular season. For the first time since 2006, the Yanks have entered what myself and a few of my buddies have dubbed "October Mode." As a baseball fan of a particular team, it's a comfortable place to be. Without putting any kind of moniker on it, Joe Girardi, a veteran of a couple of October Mode seasons during his days as the Yankee catcher, is apparently well aware of what this phase of the season means.

From Pete Abraham's blog yesterday, in relation to how hard the Yankees are going to push for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs:

The race is on for home field advantage in the playoffs. The Yankees are 78-46 and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County and Planet Earth are 74-48.
The teams will play four more times head to head. Once at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 14 in a makeup game and three times in Anaheim starting Sept. 21.
Joe Girardi said yesterday that his team will push for home field but not at the expense of making sure his players, especially the pitchers, get the right amount of time off. That makes good sense.

October Mode means balancing out the house cleaning necessary for the rest of the season (and to be sure, for the Yankees home field advantage would be advantageous against a team like the Angels) & making sure the regulars are healed and well-rested. It doesn't make for the most compelling baseball in the world, but it's a small price to pay to assured of October baseball, and to put a team in the best possible position for success in the post-season.

Of course, the last time the Yankees were able to enjoy October Mode, without any blip on the September radar, in the same season that resulted in a World Championship was 11 years ago - 1998. Going into September of that year the Yankees had an 18.5 game lead on the way to 114 regular season wins. That team was in October Mode by the All Star Break.

In 1999, they slipped into October Mode, then out, then comfortably back in for the last couple weeks of the season. Going into September, they had a comfortable 7.5 game lead over Boston and appeared to be at a cruising altitude. However, by the morning of September 14, the lead was down to 3.5 as Boston completed an improbable four-game weekend sweep at Yankee Stadium. A series that included the infamous Pedro 17-strikeout game, which took its rightful place in Yankee-Sox lore.

On the night of the 14th, the Yanks were down 6-1 going into the top of the 8th at Toronto, and with the Sox winning easily, the division lead was about to drop to 2.5. Of course, the dynasty was still alive & kicking at that point, and the Yankees bombed their way to nine runs in the final two frames for a 10-6 victory.

From that point they wheeled out an 8-1 run in their next nine games pushing their lead to a definitive six games, and enabling a final taste of October Mode in the process.

In 2000, the season of their last title, they bungled their way through October Mode, gasping their way to the finish line. Entering September of that year they had a comfortable 5 game lead on Boston and 5.5 on the Blue Jays. Tripped up by a poor final month, including a stretch in which they went 3-15, the Yankees saw their lead fall to 2.5 games by the last day of the season. Of course, they were able to right the ship quickly once the playoffs started and bounced back to win their third title in a row.

In more recent time, any October Modes (2006 comes to mind, when they were up eight games heading into September) have done little to benefit the team's final fate in the post-season.

We'll see where this early entry into October Mode leads this time around.
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Pennant races, all good ones, all memorable ones, have those catalyst games that remain the mile markers for history. I don't know that a good race remains - the Rockies are looking more & more like a lock for October with each passing day - but Colorado's remarkable extra-inning, walk-off win against the Giants last night felt like one of those definitive games that marks a season. It stamped the Rockies as the clear favorites for the N.L.'s Wild Card (the lead is now up to four on the Giants after the 3-1 series win) and has put the Dodgers on notice that they're going into a hornet's nest starting tonight. In the race for homefield advantage in the N.L. playoffs, the Phillies have the current lead, with the Dodgers one behind in the loss column and the Rockies and Cards both four games behind. Do the Giants have another push at this final spot in them? Everyone else in the N.L. (Braves, Marlins, Cubs, et. al.) are clearly on the fringe of being legitimate participants.

2009-08-21T06:53:00.002-04:00

Weekend Preview
(Summer Heat, The Summer Game Edition)

Another weekend in summer. Another Yankee-Red Sox series. Of course this series has less resonance than when the two rivals met at Yankee Stadium just two weeks ago. Importance? It's still there from Boston's perspective, as the Rangers are right there with them, battling for the American League's fourth playoff spot. Texas is one game behind entering today's play. Tampa remains on the fringe at four back.

However, it goes without saying that the Yankees don't want to stumble around the Fens this weekend and get swept. But even losing 2 of 3 isn't cause for any consternation or gastrointestinal rumblings.

Boston's bats, so quiet in the last Yankee series, have to come to life in the last few days in Toronto. The Yanks appear to have the pitching advantage in the first two games (Pettitte vs. Penny and Burnett vs. Tazawa), with Boston getting the pitching nod in a great prime time match-up on Sunday: Sabathia vs. Beckett. A potential Game 1 ALCS preview right there.
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Other series of note for the weekend:

Texas @ Tampa. Wild Card contestants #2 and #3 at the moment. I keep waiting for Tampa to make that one great stand, that one big winning streak to catapult them to the top of the Wild Card standings . . . but it just doesn't come. A series loss here at home to the Rangers would be telling.

Giants @ Rockies. Who would've thought a couple months into the season that a late August series between San Fran and Colorado would be the premier N.L. match-up of a given weekend? With the Dodgers seemingly just going through the motions in these Dog Days, the Rockies (winners of four in a row, 7-3 in their last 10) are within 3.5 games of Los Angeles. And the Giants are only two behind them. With the Cubs' August swoon, these two N.L. West teams have become the front-runners in the Wild Card race, with Florida & Atlanta remaining just far enough above mediocrity to remain players.

The Rockies upcoming stretch includes this four-game wrap-around series hosting the Giants, then home vs. the Dodgers for three, then three next weekend at San Francisco. After that (which kicks off their September schedule): a manageable homestand featuring the Mets, D-Backs and Reds; a three-team road trip (San Diego; San Fran; and Arizona); a homestand of the Padres; Cards; and Brewers; and finally a season-ending three game series at Los Angeles, which against long odds could have division implications on it. And at the very least will probably have playoff implications for the Rockies.

The other series worth mentioning for this weekend is the Cubs at the Dodgers, a rematch of the NLDS surprise series from a year ago. This timeframe is pretty much it for Chicago. They're now seven back in the Central (did that happen fast or what?) and they've lost four games to the Rockies in the Wild Card standings in the last week-and-a-half. They're now six games out of a playoff spot. While the Dodgers have to tighten the ship and make sure they don't blow this division lead, the Cubs are in pure survival mode at this point. They're talented enough to make a run, but their dysfunctionality, underperformance and bad luck, to this point, have all conspired to make this a lost season for many people's preseason favorites in the National League.

Have a great weekend whatever your plans are. It's been brutally hot & humid in the Northeast with temps hitting 90 consistently, and enough moisture in the air to make any movement laborious. Can't wait for this weather system to blow the heck out of here and bring more September-like weather . . .

2009-08-18T06:10:00.002-04:00

Going Quietly Into That Good Night
(The Bats Take a Night Off Edition)

The Yanks clearly had one of their more favorable pitching match-ups of the season last night, as Brett "don't let the door hit you on the way out" Tomko took the hill for the A's against A.J. Burnett.

From the outset, the Yankees had no trouble centering Tomko's pitches, as the first three batters in the game (Jeter/Damon/Teixeira) all had good swings. However, only Teixeira's AB resulted in a baserunner, as he ripped a double into the right field corner, but was left stranded after an A-Rod pop-up. Unfortunately, more good swings would be hard to come by for the next eight innings.

Burnett came out dealing in the bottom of the opening frame with two K's, one looking.

The A's hit A.J. relatively hard in the bottom of the 2nd, but New York was aided by a Posada caught stealing (on a pitchout), and a fine play by Johnny Damon on a hard hit ball to left.

The Yanks blew a golden opportunity in the 3rd, after lead-off singles by Ramiro Pena and Derek Jeter, and a one-out walk to Teixeira to load the bases, A-Rod hit a weak come-backer to Tomko that resulted in a 1-2-3 double play. At this point (3 IP, 0 R), the veteran was more than holding his own.

After another zero on the board for Tomko in the top of the 4th, Oakland broke through for the first run of the game after a double by Davis and single up the middle by Kurt Suzuki. A two-out balk (Burnett was in his wind-up, stopped and did a half-stumble off the mound) plated a second run, and double up the right field gap by Mark Ellis knocked in another run for a 3-0 Oakland lead through four.

Meanwhile, Tomko continued to pitch his "dream" game, exacting revenge on the franchise that he thought treated him unfairly earlier in the season. One weak pop-up or fly ball after another, the Yanks' offense exhibited a malaise from the middle innings onward that we've seldom seen this year.

The A's went to the Pen in the 6th, bringing in lefty Craig Breslow and it was more of the same: 1-2-3 inning, two pop-ups and a strikeout.

Burnett (10-6), while far from being lights-out (5 Ks), gutted out eight innings, with the only blemish being the messy 4th. His line: 99 pitches, 8/6/3/3/2/5. If not the most frustrating loss he's had this season (in terms of pitching well and still getting hung with the "L"), it was probably the most surprising considering his counterpart. But as John Sterling has said once or twice, "Hey, that's baseball. It's not like the other sports."

The Yanks' offense, meanwhile, remained in "sleep" mode for the rest of the game. They mounted a quiet rally in the 8th, putting two runners on with two outs, but Posada struck out, and in the 9th they went down 1-2-3.

No panic buttons on this end, by any stretch of the imagination. But New York has blown a chance to add 1.5 games to their division lead in the past two days, and with the Angels beating Baltimore last night both teams are even in the loss column at 45.

The Sox start a series tonight in Toronto, while Tampa hosts Baltimore and Texas continues its series against the Twins, of which they won the opener last night, going up 1 full game in the Wild Card chase.

Other late action that has playoff implications: The Cards won the series opener in Los Angeles last night 3-2, with Chris Carpenter going to 13-3 (2.27 ERA) on the season. Pujols hit his 39th homer of the season, and with the win St. Louis is now a robust six games up on the Cubs, 4-1 losers in San Diego. The gap between the two midwestern rivals has widened quickly, reminiscent of how fast the Yanks were able to build a sizable lead against Boston. In the last 10 games, St. Louis has gone 9-1, while the Cubbies have gone 3-7. Although I'm not giving the N.L. West race much credence, Colorado is now a manageable 4.5 games behind the Dodgers, picking up three games in the last 10.

Th Cards are showing more punch in the heat of August than I ever would've expected earlier in the season, and are starting to elbow their way at the same table as the heretofore N.L. favorites, Philadelphia and the Dodgers. I don't think they're quite there yet (they've needed a great two- or three-week run just to get into the discussion), but their stellar play of late has added one more interesting aspect when thinking about potential playoff match-ups.

2009-08-06T06:49:00.002-04:00

A Series in August.

(The Rivalry That Keeps on Giving Edition)

Revisiting something I wrote a little less than two months ago, June 17 to be exact:

Just knocking through the schedules quickly, I put the Sox at 66-40 and the Yankees at 62-45 going into their next series, August 6-9 at Yankee Stadium. By that time, I think the Yanks have a shot to be up 5+ games in the Wild Card, which means any subsequent match-ups between Boston and New York will be more about playoff positioning than anything else. Beyond the issue of the Yankees trying to get over the impenetrable, tantalizing, mind-numbing wall of beating Boston for the first time this year, if they can jockey back into position to make a run at the division over the final six or seven weeks of the season, it could be to their clear advantage come October.

As we've hit the long-awaited date of August 6, the date that begins yet another big Yankee-Red Sox series, there is a sense that there is something particularly special about this installment of the rivalry. And I would suspect the core of that sentiment is unique to the Yankee fan side of the equation. For as much as the Nation would like the Boston white-washing of the Bombers to continue ad infinitum, and can't be pleased about being knocked off their first-place perch, there is a sense of urgent relief bubbling inside the Yankee fan, that is akin to hearing firefighters clamoring through the shaft after you've been stuck inside an elevator for a few hours. We know this isn't going to last forever, but 0-8 has been a dark cloud continuously hanging over the summer. Whether it ends tonight, tomorrow, Saturday . . . it's going to end soon.

My long-winded point is that this series is more about the Yankees than it is about the Red Sox. The Yankees are the team, despite the improbable 2.5 game lead in the division, that has the boatload to prove to Boston (and to themselves and their fan base) as opposed to the other way around. And although there is no substitute for post-season baseball, this series is as close to a simulation as the regular season can offer. And there are still serious doubts about how this Yankee unit will perform in the post-season, especially considering their performance against Boston and LAAnaheim in recent times.

A.L. East

Team	Record	GB
New York	65-42	-
Boston	62-44	2.5

The Yankees have over-performed my off-the-cuff projection in June by three games. Boston has under-performed by four games. It doesn't sound like a huge difference, but that's a seven-game swing in the loss column from what I was expecting. More than being surprised at the Yankees doing a little better than I thought that would, the Sox haven't been as crisp as I thought they'd be in a stretch of their schedule that was very favorable. Although the sight of the Rays over the last couple nights wasn't enough to kick them into another gear, pinstriped blood in the water tends to bring out their resourceful, grinding best. I expect nothing less.

One of the differences with this series is that for the first time in recent memory, the Yanks are playing the Sox to an even match-up in the starting pitching department. At least on paper. The Yanks have the edge on Thursday; Boston on Friday; Yanks on Saturday; Boston on Sunday. And to further that point, the New York's pitching advantages (Joba over Smoltz; Sabathia over Buchholz) are larger than Boston's (Beckett over Burnett; Lester over Pettitte). Now in saying this, I'm cognizant that no one would be surprised if Joba is wild tonight in the bright lights of the Bronx, and Smoltz, like a wily old outlaw, steps up his game and throws six innings of two-run ball. However, just a general look at the match-ups suggests the Yankees have shot to fare well here.

[I do question the need to bring Phil Hughes into a game with a three-run lead last night, presumably making him unavailable for tonight; he pitched Tues. & Wed. However, he got the job done, the Yanks preserved the lead and a win is a win is a win.]

Weather.com suggests only slight nuisances at the Stadium over the next four days. Chance of a shower or two this evening; showers on Saturday; and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Friday night looks perfect. I'll be heading to the game on Saturday, and for now I'll hold out hope that the local Connecticut forecast which I saw yesterday holds up, as that day was dubbed their "Pick of the Weekend."

I'll try and drop a word here or word there over the next four days, as I'm anxious to see how this plays out. My prediction: a 2-2 series split, that will go a little against the grain. I think Boston will get either the Thurs. or Sat. game, and the Yanks will get either the Fri. or Sun. game.

A little taste of October in August. Nothing wrong with that.

2009-08-02T08:59:00.002-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee
(The Spittin' in the Wind Edition)

As if being decreed by the baseball gods, it seems inevitable that by the time Thursday night rolls around the Yankees and Red Sox will be in close to something like a virtual tie for first place in the American League's eastern division. Like the swift nature in which New York had built a 3.5 game lead on the Boston nine, the Sox have erased three games in three nights and are now an insignificant one-half game out of first place.

While the Yankees have been getting bonked around the Windy City this weekend, Boston has been enjoying the usual cosy comforts of Fenway Park South, a.k.a. Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In 48 hours the very fabric of the race has changed. And not just because of a couple of blow-out, forgettable losses by the Yanks.

No, the shift in the winds has everything to do with the composition of the Boston line-up now:

CF Ellsbury, CF
2B Pedroia, 2B
1B V. Martinez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
LF Bay

Jiminy Christmas, that's a potent top six . . . Any line-up gap between the two rivals has been narrowed considerably by this shrewd move by Theo Epstein. (Hey, he's been around the block long enough that we can cease preceding his name with "Boy Wonder GM," correct?)

I can only hope that inserting Martinez dead-smack in the middle of that line-up will be the equivalent of putting a wet rag on smoldering embers. The Red Sox line-up has been putt-putt-puttering along over the last month, and Martinez hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either: .161/.268/.279 over his last 30 games as Goldman pointed out.

What's more likely to happen is that Martinez is going to find a nice groove with the bubble of Pedroia/Youkilis/Papi/Bay hitting around him. Batting average aside, he's not that far-off his 2007 rates (he missed a substantial amount of time last year due to injury).

2007: .301/.374/.505
2009: .283/.366/.461

As is the way with this rivalry over the last five years, the infusion of giddiness in Beantown coincides with the moment that the Yankees usually slip on a banana peel. While the Red Sox were wheeling & dealing in an effort to raise their chances of winning the pennant, the Yankees were adding . . . . . . Jerry Hairston, Jr. .

Now, I have nothing against Jerry Hairston, Jr. He is what he is: a utility guy who can pretty much play anywhere on the diamond. With the stick? Well, there's a lot to be desired . . . However, in 297 PAs last season he actually hit .326/.384/.487 for the Reds. If there's any chance he can catch some of that lightning, then maybe this will turn into a useful pick-up. Chances are probably slim that's going to happen, and the reality is that he's just one more caddy for the hobbled and rickety players that man the left side of the diamond on a daily basis: Damon & Rodriguez.

(And, now can we get Cody Ransom off this baseball team? What is the point of having Hairston and Ransom on this team? It's becoming more and more remarkable that the Yankees are giving away at-bats (86 PAs) to date to a guy hitting .190/.256/.329. Enough. Please.)

My buddy's going to hold my feet to the fire on my "the Rays ain't catching the Yankees" proclamation. That's fine; Tampa's picked up three games in three days in the loss column, reducing the number to five. And unless C.C. Sabathia can pitch a big game this afternoon, that number could very fall to a suddenly manageable four games.

However, once the Royals are off the slate after Monday afternoon the Rays' consistency will be put to the test for the rest of August. Two games vs. Boston; a West Coast trip to Seattle and Anaheim; three games against the Rangers; and a four-game series at Detroit. Stretching it even further, Tampa's first 13 games of September are against Detroit, Boston and New York.

If the Rays are still alive & kicking (within 2 or 3 games) on September 14, than maybe I'll start preparing myself for eating a large dose of crow. But until then, I'll keep the faith that the Yankees can stave off an epic collapse, and focus on what it's going to take to stay in first place.
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Goldman's take on Washburn to the Tigers:

In terms of the moves the Yankees did not make, it's a bit surprising to see the long-coveted Jarod Wasburn go to the Tigers for two left-handed pitching prospects, Luke French, who has pitched seven games in the majors this year with strong results, and Mauricio Robles, an A-ball pitcher. Neither is a high-value prospect, just "interesting," and it seems odd that the Yankees couldn't have made a competitive offer had they wanted to do so.

When the pitching staff is hanging on by a thread after giving up 24 runs in the two days to the White Sox, this non-move is going to start looking worse on a daily basis. However, I'm willing to see how this plays out, in terms of a possible waiver-trade. They've already shifted the rotation so Mitre will miss the Boston series. The bad news is that he's probably going to have his brains beat in by the Blue Jays on Wednesday. And throw in the fact that Halladay's pitching against Pettitte on Monday, and there's a great chance the Yanks are going to be stumbling into that Boston series like a dazed prize-fighter.

Just get me to Thursday night, and we'll take it from there.

2009-07-30T18:34:00.003-04:00

On the Ropes or Down for the Count?
(The Rays on the Brink Edition)

Without much deliberation, I'm sticking by words from Monday: with the loss-column deficit at eight games, the Rays aren't going to catch the Yankees this season.

As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus lists the Yankees chances of reaching the post-season at 89.5%. According to their simulations, the only other team that has a better shot is the Dodgers who are 98% assured of playing October baseball.

If you wanted to stretch me to the outer reaches of plausibility, I guess I'd at least listen to an argument why Texas (four games behind New York in the loss column) could catch the Yanks. But I ain't buying it.

The Yankees haven't metaphorically been able to relax in a hammock during the dog days of summer since that lost season of 2004. I can only hope that this season doesn't have a similar conclusion.

On this date five years ago, the Yanks were 63-38, one game better than their record now, and enjoyed a 7.5 game cushion on 2nd place Boston. While the Red Sox are closer in the standings this time around, the confident feeling of this team landing in the post-season isn't any less.

This is not to suggest I'm going to go off with a lemonade in my hand, kick back and doze through the rest of the regular season. There is work to be done. Aside from the business of putting the finishing touches on the organization of the pitching staff and getting back to (and maintaining) 100% health (Aceves, Gardner, the creaky bones of Damon, Matsui, et. al.), there is the matter of saving some face against Boston in the remaining 10 games. More than bragging rights in the Connecticut border war, the stake of the division is an important one for New York. Consider the difference between opening the ALDS in Anaheim vs. opening it vs. the A.L. Central winner at Yankee Stadium 2. Consider the difference between playing a Game 7 at Fenway Park vs. the mallpark in the Bronx. And I don't think anything else needs to be said on the matter. Winning the A.L. East this year isn't about tacking up another division championship banner; it could be at the very core of dictating whether this team can erase the recent trend of post-season failure.
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While the Red Sox are clearly scuffling in this time frame, incredibly dropping 6.5 games to New York in the standings in less than two weeks, I'm not convinced that Rays are going to be able to make a run at them to close the current five-game loss-column gap.

It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.

If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.

If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.

Which, in a roundabout way, brings me back to Boston. Although the denizens of the Fens are feeling their customary melancholia when things aren't going well, I still think they don't have much to sweat here. Maybe it's my pro-Boston bias (and by pro-Boston, I'm referring to my belief that they're still the best short series team in the sport, not pro-Boston in a pom-pom sort of way - just want to be clear on that one), but I still think they're going to win the East. Tampa's dropped the ball here, quickly turning my effusiveness about a three-team race into meaningless and premature babble. And even taking my optimistic hope to the furthest limits, I can't picture a world in which the Texas Rangers are pushing the Sox for a playoff spot in the rough waters of the stretch run of the season, i.e. mid to late September.

We'll see if the Sox play to my expectations. Right now they look as vulnerable as they have in several seasons. Both for reasons of their own doing (sticking with Penny too long (?), an over-reliance on the return of John Smoltz) and by bad fortune (Dice-K; Wakefield's injury), their starting rotation is out-of-whack.

The quick fix lies on the horizon. Or more specifically over the Canadian border. I think the tides have turned in favor of a Boston-Toronto trade, and I will be mildly surprised if the Sox don't have Halladay in their rotation by the weekend. And once that happens, the Red Sox will have made their path to the World Series very clear & distinct, and the prospect of failure (especially at the hands of the Yankees) that much more unacceptable.

2009-07-28T20:36:00.008-04:00

Post #200
(With Updates at the Bottom)

In I guess what qualifies as a bold statement around these parts, I wrote in an email yesterday: the Rays will not catch the Yanks 8 games out on the morning of July 30th.

The Rays are now eight games behind New York in the loss column on the morning of July 28, and one Yankee win in the next two nights keeps it at eight on the morning of July 30.

So much for the magnificent three-team race I wrote about on Sunday morning . . .

I fully expected Tampa to take two out of three in this series, but after dropping the opener in wholly unconvincing fashion their backs are squarely against the wall.

If there's any crime I committed on Sunday morning (and look, this could still shape up as a great September race between the three beasts of the East), it was over-rating how the Rays have been playing of late.

In the last 21 games, the Yankees have picked up six games on Tampa in the standings. That's a huge chunk of real estate in a short amount of time. As Steven Goldman broke down yesterday, Tampa really hadn't been playing well entering this series.

Tampa's record in the 20 games prior to last night was 10-10 and their offensive rates were uninspiring to say the least at .228/.315/.361.

Who said, "It's getting late early"? Well, that applies to the Rays right now. I think they need to take both games to remain in the mix with New York & Boston, a team they trail by six in the loss column.

Baseball Prospectus does a daily Postseason Odds report. Entering this series, the Yankees odds to enter the post-season were a tick over 75%. Today, after last night's 11-4 romp at the Trop, it's up to 85.9%, presumably their highest percentage of the season to date. Tampa's odds sit at 34%.

I hate to paint a series in July as a team's last stand, but for the Rays this is probably it.

As it stands now, the Rays are well on their way, up 3-1 Top 5 with Kazmir on his game. His line through five: 5/4/1/1/1/1/3, 84 pitches.

Update, 9:35 p.m. : Pete Abraham has dubbed this one a "train-wreck game" and he's right on the $$$. With worrisome Sabathia-related articles cropping up in a couple of respected places recently, tonight's lackluster performance by the Big Guy isn't going to deter those skeptical sentiments. Tampa's the team that's suddenly found themselves in must-win-now mode vs. New York, and the Yanks were probably due for a bit of a letdown. That being said, Sabathia's line is still pretty hideous: 5.2/9/6/5/2/6.

One of the sources of consternation has been his dipping strikeout rate; at least that wasn't an issue tonight. His hitability, however, was. And he wasn't helped much by shoddy outfield play by Nick Swisher and a couple of bad breaks (the line drive that Teixeira almost made a great play on in the 6th).

Kazmir is out of the game now after giving up a lead-off single to start the 8th. Not counting the runner on base his line for the night: 7+/5/1/1/1/4. Safe to say it's the lefty's best start of the season.

Update, 9:48 p.m.: Mop-up duty? Absolutely. But Mark Melancon gave a good account of himself: 20 pitches, 15 strikes, 2/1/0/0/0/2. His fastball didn't look overpowering, but the results speak for themselves. He averaged a walk an inning in his cup of coffee earlier in the season. So at least those initial jitters seem to be out of the way.

Remarkable. Mark Buehrle followed up his Thursday perfecto by throwing 5.2 perfect innings in the Metrodome. A walk, a single and a double later, and it's a tie game going into the 7th, 1-1.

Update, 9:55: Yanks have scored a run in the 9th on a Matsui double, but are on thin ice with 2 outs down 6-2. Big start for Joba tomorrow night vs. Garza. I still contend New York has a hammer to drop that the Rays won't recover from. Boston well on their way to closing the gap to 1.5. Gonna finish my night by watching the end of the Minny-ChiSox game. Have a good one.

2009-07-26T10:26:00.002-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee
("And Now the Fun Begins" Edition)

I admit to not having total recall of recent baseball seasons. But I don't think I'm going out on too far a limb and saying the American League East is shaping up as the best three-team playoff race in recent memory. And I'm using the word "best" for a few reasons. As this blog has morphed more & more into strictly Yankee-Red Sox commentary over time, an evolution that was probably inevitable given my time constraints & rooting interests, it should be obvious which division race I'm most focused on. But beyond the subjectivity, there is the clear quality of the three teams that make this race something special.

As they have since the first couple weeks of the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the majors in run differential (+112). The next three teams in this category: Boston (82); Tampa (77); and New York (75). In stat rooms, run differential is generally considered a better indicator of a team's true performance level, as opposed to their actual win-lose record, and as a result is viewed as a good indicator of future performance. For example, the Yankees are in 1st place, 1.5 games ahead of the Red Sox, but are over-playing their expected record (ExWL) by 3 games. The Sox are right on target with their expected record, and Tampa is under-performing their ExWL by 3 games. Conventional wisdom would suggest things will balance out and the Yanks and Rays will end up meeting at virtually the same record at a future point in the season. Of course the fun part is no one knows exactly what is going to transpire; the main point is that as comfortable as that 5.5 game cushion over Tampa looks in New York right now, the most fundamental numbers of the game (runs scored, runs allowed) hint that divide is going to close.

The thing that's remarkable about this race is that you could make a case that these are the three best teams in baseball. No offense to the Dodgers whatsoever (and I would at least give them the benefit of the doubt and say they're in the top 3; they're having a great year), but they are in the National League, and sport an uncanny and incredibly lucky 20-9 record in one-run games. The only other team that is even close to this mark is Seattle, which is 23-13. You gotta figure the Dodgers would be dogs to Boston & New York in a World Series match-up, and probably slight favorites over Tampa.

No matter. Whatever the breakdown is, the season has taken on a day-to-day urgency that is rare for the last week of July, and is sure to continue for the final two months of the season. Sure the Sox struggled out of the All Star break gate, but you just knew they would right the ship with a 10-game batch of the Orioles and A's. The Yanks, winners of eight games in a row before yesterday's defeat, have built up their first real cushion of the year. But it's more like a pillow with its feathers taken out. You don't have any sense that there is a legitimate amount of breathing space. And the Rays, for all their seeming inconsistencies, have climbed to 10 games over .500 now. They never seem fazed and never take a day off as evidenced by yesterday's season-stamping comeback in Toronto, and the way they bounced back after their all-goose-eggs performance Thursday in Chicago. It's almost like a tennis match now, where you expect all three teams to hold serve everyday. It's a surprise when one of them loses.

Which makes the New York-Tampa series this week a must-watch. And it puts an appropriate epic feel into the upcoming Yanks-Sox series next week. It's a race that should keep us glued and at full attention into the late days of September.
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Everyone's favorite small market club, the Minnesota Twins, are having a week from hell on the West Coast. They gave up a ton of runs again yesterday as they lost their 4th in a row, an 11-5 defeat in Anaheim. They've dropped to two under .500 and are now 5 behind the Tigers, who have asserted themselves (again) as the favorite to win the Central by taking three in a row from the ChiSox, just when it seemed the Sox were in better position than ever to give Detroit fits. The Twins remain plucky and all . . . but I don't know. This is the kind of week that can just knock the wind out of you. Five games doesn't look like much in the standings; it just feels a whole lot worse right now for the Twinkies.
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For all the stumbling, bumbling and general lethargy that defined the Cubs first half, once they grab a first-place foothold they're going to be tough to dethrone. They're 7-3 in their last 10; their RD is +13 to the Cards' +27; and now sit just a 1/2 game out of first. The National League playoff picture is starting to look a lot like '08 with the Phillies and Dodgers in great shape, and now the Cubbies on the upswing. And if we're going to use RD as any indicator than the Rockies have nudged ahead as the Wild Card favorites. Their +59 is third in the league behind L.A. and Philly (+71).
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Bill James, as he wrote in the New Historical Baseball Abstract, was once asked if he thought Rickey Henderson was a Hall of Famer. James' reply: "If you could split him in two, you'd have two Hall of Famers."

My one Hall of Fame-related comment today: when I think of Henderson, beyond the leadoff home runs and stolen bases, my mind goes to 1989 and this series.

As dominating a series I can ever remember a player having. In five games, Henderson went 6-15, scored 8 runs, hit a double, triple and two home runs, walked seven times, didn't strike out once and obliterated the Jays on the base paths stealing eight bags in eight attempts. His line for the five games: .400/.609/1.000.

In the World Series, a four-game sweep marred by the Bay Area earthquake, he put a beating on the Giants as well: .474/.524/.895 (double, two triples, home run), with three steals in four attempts.

If there was anything that crystallized the experience of being a young Yankee fan at the end of the 1980s, it was seeing Rickey Henderson traded for virtually nothing (even the bare mention of the three players the Yanks got back in the deal still makes me painfully cringe), and then go on to play in the post-season that same year and turn into a combination of Ty Cobb & Mickey Mantle.

2009-07-23T06:22:00.002-04:00

Wheels In the Sky
(The Awful Song Reference Edition)

As my friend stressed in an email yesterday: It's all about the Rays!

And on some level I agree with this. The Red Sox aren't going to continue scoring two runs a game. And can you really take the Yankees seriously in a comparison vs. Boston until they, like . . . actually win a game against them?

So yes, the fact that New York's recent run has enabled them to build a 5.5 game cushion over Tampa is a comforting thing. However, I do think it's fair to begin assessing the Yankees in a head-to-head context vs. Boston. The lead is now two games, and I'm sticking with my law-of-averages mantra and think the Yanks are likely to play the Sox at least dead-even in their remaining 10 games. And if it's not 5-5, I'd be willing to bet the house that it's not going to be worse than 4-6.

Boston's batting numbers over the last month speak for themselves. In July, they're tied for 8th in the American League in RS at 72 with the A's. And in OBP, the bedrock foundation of the Boston franchise, they're tied for 11th in the A.L. at .311. These are numbers we haven't seen out of the Sox in a long time.

From Theo's press conference yesterday:

"I think we're a good offensive club having a horrific month. When you go through slumps like this, one, it's important to assess any areas where you can improve without overreacting, and two, to put in perspective. We have the potential to be really, really good. But we're not the most prolific offensive club in recent Red Sox history. We certainly have the ability to score enough runs to get where we want to go."

Adam LaRoche and Chris Duncan aren't going to do a whole lot to change that equation, but they're something. Especially the former; the latter has been sent off to AAA as a bat-in-waiting if necessary. LaRoche gives them more flexibility in the infield, and at the very least represents a clear upgrade over Mark Kotsay.

So much is written about Epstein by both the mainstream media and the bloggers, that I want to be careful about being over-effusive in a pick-up of a middling corner infielder. But this trade is an example of why you can't go wrong with this guy as your GM. The wheels are constantly turning, and you always get the sense that he's being proactive and staying one step ahead of the competition. With this move maybe he's picked up a run here or there, and considering the slim divide between NY/Boston/Tampa, that small batch of runs could end up making all the difference.

To get back to my opening thought: yes, in some ways it is all about the Rays. Staying ahead of them virtually guarantees the Yankees a playoff spot (sorry, Texas). However, I continue to maintain that having home-field advantage in a potential Boston-New York A.L.C.S. is reason enough to keep a constant eye on the Sox and that perch above the best division in baseball.

2009-07-16T19:07:00.007-04:00

2nd Half Kicks Off

The first post of the month and guaranteed not to be overly exciting. The generally acknowledged second half of the baseball season gets underway this hour, despite every team past the 81-game mark.

A blasé slate of games tonight, with the most interesting match-ups being Phillies-Marlins and Reds-Brewers.

Here's some interesting things that the pros are saying & writing:

Rob Neyer writes the Sox are looking to dump Julio Lugo (and that's newsworthy because?), and the Jays are scouting Montero, which keeps my buddy's dreams of the Yanks acquiring Doc somewhat based in reality.

I got to thinking . . . if the Yanks do get Halladay, when would be the last comparable pitching acquisition? I'm thinking in terms of flexing their monetary muscle and potentially having an indelialbe effect on the team's fortunes.

Mussina? Didn't have as big an impact on the team's fortunes as I expected to at the time of the signing. Although he probably had one of the top 10-15 Yankee careers among starting pitchers.

Clemens? The team was coming off one of the top seasons in the history of the sport. There was no way he was going to take them to "another level," and outside of occassional post-season brilliance he was more of a coat-tail rider. Especially in '99.

Cone? Great comparison. Cone came to the team in July of '95 and was a huge factor in their run to the A.L. Wild Card. And he subsequently played a key role three other championships.

For some reason I thought about Catfish Hunter. I've always paired the Catfish signing before the '75 season with the emergence of those late 70s Yankee teams. He was the first big fish, awful pun intended, that the Yankees' cash reeled in at that time.

Funny thing though: in '74 (Hunter's last season in Oakland), the Yanks went 89-73, good enough for a second place finish. In Catfish's first year in pinstripes, the Yanks actually took a step back, going 83-77 and dropped to third. I don't have the time or knowledge to break down what happened in '75 to cause the misstep, but it certainly had little or nothing to do with Hunter. In 39 starts (328 innings!) he went 23-14 with 2.58 ERA (144 ERA+).

In a '76 campaign in which his production declined (98 ERA+), Hunter still won 17 games and pitched nearly 300 innings for the first Yankee pennant winner since '64. The best starter on the staff that year was actually Ed Figueroa.

And that was basically it for Catfish. From '77 to '79, Hunter, beset by age/arm problems/wear & tear, went 23-24 with a 4.52 ERA in 62 G/61 GS.

Speaking of, here's Pete Abe's post about what it would take to get Halladay. Sounds about right to me.

I'll try and get one more post in this weekend, but it might be tough. Have a lot going on, both recreationally and not.

Enjoy the weekend.

2009-06-28T23:42:00.002-04:00

Random Thoughts While Watching Baseball on a Sunday Night
(The Keeping the Work Week at Bay Edition)

Ultimately, there's nothing really wrong with Robinson Cano hitting .300 with 24 home runs and playing pretty good defense at second base. It's just that sometimes you feel he should be doing so much more. Getting on base more. Hitting more consistently over the course of the season.

Remember early in the season when he was red hot, hitting line drives all over the place and seemed on his way to having a huge season? Specifically, he was peppering the ball to left field, either slicing it down the line or driving it with authority toward the left-cente gap. That's gone now. As I expected it eventually would be. I can't remember the last time I saw him hit a ball with authority to left or left-center.

Cano hit into two DPs and left a tidy nine runners on base. He had two chances to salt the game away with the bases loaded in the late innings. In the 6th, he hit into a DP with 1 out; and in the 8th with two outs and the bags juiced, he grounded out to Castillo.

It hit me. Wang's theme song for 2009. A mid-90's alterna-rock classic by Dave Grohl.

I'm ready to knock him out of the rotation at a moment's notice. And then he gets an inning-ending double play. Or flashes a nasty slider (something new in his arsenal?) and strikes out David Wright. The Mets had the tying run on 2nd in the 4th, and he was able to get the ground ball to get out of it.

He's still allowing too many baserunners and has lost his magical ability to be economical on a game in/game out basis (remember those 85 pitches through seven innings nights of '06 and '07?). But after watching his start in Atlanta and against a AAAA team at Citi Field tonight, I can't justify taking him out of the rotation. Yet. His next start will be against the Blue Jays, and then either at Minnesota or at Anaheim. In a couple of weeks we'll know for certain of Wang is going to be in the Yankees' rotation for the 2nd half of the season.

His final line: 5.1/4/2/2/3/3. He had 11 groundouts and 2 flyouts, threw 85 pitches, 49 of them for strikes. And got his first win of the season. That monkey's gone to heaven.

As the game got deeper, I realized that a loss tonight would've bothered me more than I expected. I can't remember a more depleted major league line-up than the Mets are shuttling out there everday; they're one player away from being a bonafide AAA line-up. To not be able to put them away, complete the sweep and enjoy Monday's off-day would've been disappointing

As is typical for an ESPN national broadcast that features the Yankees, there was a ton of Jeter Talk. Chances to get to 4,000 hits. The imminent prospect of a position switch. The Yankees' move at the end of his current contract.

The most interesting tidbit they offered was that since 1950 Jeter has been involved in the 4th most number of wins of any player in the major leagues before turning 35 (which Jeter did the other day). 1. Brooks Robinson; 2. Mickey Mantle; 3. Hank Aaron

Sure there's the factor of payroll advantage and being born under a good sign, but I find it amazingly impressive that Jeter is 4th on that list.

And by thinking "In five years Derek Jeter is going to be 40" gives me one of those "Damn, I'm getting old" moments which always suck.

In two games against Livan Hernandez the Yankees haven't bludgeoned him like I thought they could/should. His effort at Stadium 2 earlier in the month was no great shakes, but he did pitch into the 6th inning and tonight he was even more game than that. 7/3/3/3/5/1

This fits into his overall trend for this year of defying the odds of being left for road-kill by nearly every preseason prognostication, and giving the Mets a guy they can hand the ball to with a modicum of confidence every five days. Before tonight he had a 3.66 ERA in June in 32 innings of work. He's pitched into the 6th inning in 12 of 15 start this season. Who could've predicted that in the spring?

I don't know if there is a lesson to be mined from Hernandez's work this year . . . maybe never underestimate the wily veteran with the rubber arm of all rubber arms.

That's a big home run for Brandon Inge in Houston. The Tigers were on the verge of an inexcusable sweep at the hands of the Astros, and with one swing with 2 outs in the 9th down one, they were able to save face and stay a healthy margin ahead of the Twins.

The Giants have the second best record in the National League. It's time to start paying closer attention.

I didn't like the Tatis bunt in the 6th. Sheffield on first with no outs, and a count of 1-0. Granted, Tatis was clearly trying to bunt for a base hit, but I would rather see him hit away there.

I also wasn't crazy about lifting Wang at 85 pitches with one out in the 6th. He has Fernando Martinez (.173) and Brian Schneider (.233) coming up there and you're going to need the pen for 7-8-9 anyway. I always hate going to the bullpen until you clearly have to. And I didn't think they needed to in that spot. Maybe with the off-day tomorrow, the rest the relievers have had over the last 48 hours and their sub-3.00 ERA in June, Girardi didn't want to push Wang any further . . . It's a decision that could go either way. I probably would've stuck with him for at least another batter or two.

Coke struck out Martinez, and then Girardi pulled a double-switch with Damon & Hughes. Hughes got Santos to fly out on one pitch.

Since May 8th (the date of A-Rod's return), the Yankees have the best record in the majors, just ahead of Boston. The other two teams in the top four are the two Los Angeles teams. The Dodgers are no surprise, but I was surprised to see the Angels on that list. With the Rangers losing at home to the Padres, LA/Anaheim is two up in the loss column now.

The two A.L. West rivals start a series tomorrow in Texas.

Appropriately enough, A-Rod made a Keith Hernandez-esque play in the 7th on a sacrifice bunt attempt. With Castillo on first on no outs, Argenis Reyes but a bunt toward the third base side of the pitcher's mound. Rodriguez was moving in as the pitch was being delivered (a move that Hernandez made an art form as a first baseman in obvious bunt situations) fielded and threw to Jeter covering second to get the lead runner. Great execution of a difficult play.

It's funny the details you remember from your formative years as a sports fan. And some of the things you forget. I honestly forgot that Eckersly won both the Cy Young and MVP in 1992. I don't think I could ever condone a reliever winning an MVP award, regardless of the gaudy save numbers, ERA and WHIPs. He was *amazing* though during that stretch ('88-'93), wasn't he? How 'bout those WHIPs in '89 (0.607) and '90 (0.614)? From 1989-1991, three seasons, he pitched 207 innings, facing 767 batters in the process, and walked 16 men unintentionally (four intentional). And struck out 215! His K:BB ratio in '89 and '90 was 18.33 and 18.25 respectively. And the thing is those ratios were in the 6's in '87 and '88, 9.67 in '91; and never higher than 9.00 again.

It was like he hit an oasis of pitching-control perfection for two years, never to be found again at that level. Not that his K:BB splits thereafter were anything to scoff at.

For a point of comparison, Mariano Rivera's best K:BB ratio of his career was last year at 12.83. Before then he had never been higher than 6.92.

A couple of years ago, a buddy of mine who's a Red Sox fan and wasn't familiar with Brian Bruney at the time asked me about him. And I described him simply as "a country chucker." That description still fits to a large extent. And why I'm not dead-set on believing that Bruney is some kind of nirvanic answer to the 8th inning, his injury history aside for the moment.

He put two runners on in the 8th via the walk, then blew away Martinez with a high fastball. And then Girardi decided it was time for Mariano, well-rested and with four outs to claim as his own before his 500th save was in the books.

Twilight Zone Moment of the Night: Mariano Rivera hitting against K-Rod in the 9th with the bases loaded and two outs. And to truly add to the bizarro-reality moment, Mariano actually drew a walk! He was up 2-0 in the count to start, and Rodriguez came back to even the count at two. And after a foul ball, Frankie threw two balls in a row to walk in a run. Unbelievable. Not surprisingly, it was the great reliever's first RBI of his career.

After that, he closed out the 9th in efficient fashion, reaching a nice, round-number milestone in the process. He's only the second pitcher to reach 500 saves, the other being Hoffman of course.

A good baseball night even if my enthusiasm for sweeping the Mets is tempered by the reality of just how under-manned they were.

2009-06-27T16:09:00.002-04:00

Saturday Afternoon Snapshot
(Odds & Sods Edition)

I wish I had mentioned the Yankees' BABIP sooner . . . As if a light clicked on after the 5th inning on Wednesday, the offense has snapped back to life after a lethargic two weeks of play. In three games they're hitting .289/.387/.474 and have scored 28 runs.

Their RISP numbers have still been paltry over the last few days: .208/.400/.302, but it's made little difference. From a base standpoint, the most damage they've done is with a man on first base: .571/.625/.905. And from an outs situation, it's been one out: .352/.478/.611.
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Did anyone else catch the Yankees-Mets game on television last night? In the early stages of the game, for about 20 minutes or so, the camera crews would continually break away and take panoramic shots of the sky over Citi Field. It was downright majestic, with all kinds of atypical colors. A wicked line of thunderstorms had rumbled its way over the Tri-State area (the lightning strikes in southern Connecticut were like those perfect vertical jagged likes that you see in science textbooks) after 5:00 and actually caused the game to start late. By the time the sun was setting, the storms had passed and there was a blend of sun and clouds and moisture in the air to cause an amazing natural display over the steel beams, electrical light, green field and brown infield. It was like something out of a Kevin Costner movie. But was 1,000x better than that.
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Brett Gardner after his ridiculous 5-6 game last night stands at .303/.374/.376. He has 17 steals in 19 attempts and for his career is 30-33. I don't know how high the ceiling is for this guy offensively, but at these rates he is will be the Yankees' everyday centerfielder no ifs ands or buts. With all the attention that Boston gets for developing talent in its everyday line-up (and rightly so), the Yanks may have their answer to Ellsbury (.306/.354/.399 to this point in '09).
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The first final of the day is in the books. Phillies 10, Toronto 0. Werth hit two home runs. The Cards are up on the Twins 5-3 in the 8th and everything else starts later.
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I'm out of the business of predicting what teams are going to do in a short-term timeframe. My 10.5 over/under on the Yanks' schedule from the Nats to the M's went bust and looks ridiculous now. And so I didn't step out on any limb in my Tigers' piece yesterday, even though I saw they had Houston & Oakland coming up on the schedule.

Of course, Detroit's winning streak went poof last night against the Astros, as they gave up two runs in the 8th and lost 5-4. Alfredo Figaro makes his second career start tonight for the Tigers. In his only other appearance he threw a 5/8/2/2/2/7 line against the Brewers.
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Scott Kazmir is back on the mound tonight for the Rays. He hasn't pitched since May 20 and will attempt to resuscitate a 4-4, 7.69 ERA campaign.
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Want to know the state of the Royals? Here's all you need to know. Bruce Chen is starting tonight for K.C. tonight at Pittsburgh. Chen hasn't been in a major league game since 2007, and hasn't been a full-time starter since 2005. He was one of my personal favorites in the early part of this decade. Not blessed with much baseball talent at all, I remember him studying to be a nuclear physicist or some such thing. I don't know where he took that secondary career, but it always struck me how atypical that was for a major league baseball player.
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After being under a perpetual bank of clouds for virtually the entire month of June, we have a perfect summer day at our disposal. My back deck & a beer combo was Son Volt/Pearl Jam/Springsteen's Seeger Sessions this afternoon.

Enjoy the games tonight.

2009-06-26T07:11:00.001-04:00

Team in Focus
Detroit Tigers Edition

The team with the longest winning streak in baseball on the morning of June 26 is the Detroit Tigers. After completing a sweep of the Chicago Cubs yesterday afternoon at home, Detroit has now won seven in a row and has a cushy five-game lead in the A.L. Central over the Twins.

The Tigers started the month in a bad way, getting swept at home by Boston and dropping the first of a three-game set vs. the Angels. Since then, however, they're 13-6 and that includes a blip when they lost four straight from June 13-17.

As is typically the case when a team goes on a week-long or longer winning streak, it's a case of their pitching & offense coming together. Over the last seven days they lead the American League in runs and are tied for 2nd in runs allowed with 18. The three teams they've played in this stretch are all from the N.L. Central: St. Louis (1); Milwaukee (3) and the Cubbies (3).

It's the Tigers second seven-game winning streak of the season. The other came from May 15-22 and included three-game sweeps against Oakland & Texas at home and a win against Colorado.

In my mind, I've grouped the Tigers in with the Mets to this point in the season as both teams are talented but enigmatic. The Mets seem likely to dance around the .500 mark for the near timeframe, due to both injuries and their overall persistent inconsistencies. The Tigers have moved beyond such company, at least for the time being, as they're now ten games over .500 for the first time this season.

Overall, the Tigers are third in the American League in runs allowed. However, over the last 30 days, they're third from the bottom. Better than only Cleveland and Kansas City.

Minnesota, who I expect to stay within shouting distance of the Tigers for now and make a legitimate run at them later, is 2nd in the league in RA in the same timeframe.

Top 5 - RA American League Last 30 Days
80 Seattle
97 Minnesota
100 Boston
102 Tampa
107 New York

In the same timeframe, Detroit is 8th in the league in runs scored. Granted, "the last 30 days" encompasses that awful series vs. the Red Sox in which they were trounced 26-9 over the three games, but still . . . I'd expect a little better showing for the Tigers. In the other four-game losing streak this month they were outscored 30-11.

Looking at the entire season, Detroit is a pretty good defensive team, but not great. They're 6th in the league in Defensive Efficiency and 6th in the league in BABIP.

Detroit's run margin is +34. Minnesota's is +23. Based on those numbers you'd expect them to be closer than five games.

Detroit's a good team. They have three guys offensively who are having very good to excellent seasons in Cabrera, Inge and Granderson. They have a solid, stable rotation with three starters having very good to excellent years in Jackson, Verlander and Porcello. They have a good, but not great, closer. LIke I said they have a good defense, but nothing that jumps off the page. And I think we all like Jim Leyland as a manager.

Maybe it's that Boston series, but I still put them a peg below the Red Sox, Tampa and yes, even the Yankees. And if we're looking at run differential, then you have to consider Toronto who's at +47 compared to Detroit's +34.

It's a well-balanced team. I don't expect them to be in the World Series, but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if they gave their first round opponent (possibly the Wild Card winner from the East) absolute fits in a short series.

Postscript: Detroit and Minnesota play July 3-5 at Minnesota; August 7-9 in Detroit; and twice in September: 18-20 at Minny, 28-10/1 at Comerica.

2009-06-25T09:26:00.002-04:00

A Sabermetric Silver Lining
(The "Where We Would We Be Without Wishful Thinking?" Edition
Or "Determined to Make You Sick of RISP" Edition)
All Stats Thru Tuesday, June 23

Pete Abraham took a critical look at the Yankees' recent woes yesterday afternoon, in the simply titled "Breaking down the slump."

We've spent a lot of time focusing on the questions in the back-end of the starting rotation and bullpen in recent weeks. In the meantime the everyday starting nine has crumbled. As P.A. points out, the team does have a 3.89 ERA in the 13 games since New York arrived in Fenway Park two weeks ago.

Offense: What else could it be? The Yankees are hitting .240 with a .326 on-base percentage and a .394 slugging percentage in those 13 games and averaging 4.0 runs. In their previous 57 games, they were averaging 5.7 runs and hitting .277/.356/.482 as a team.

Clutch hitting: The Yankees were hitting .266 with runners in scoring position over the first 57 games. Not great, but it was working. They are at .238 since. If you discount that 15-0 game against the Mets, it’s .194. They’ve fallen off the cliff of clutch.

This stretch has dropped the Yanks to 11th in the American League in BA/RISP at .261. That's the bottom five in the league, which is rounded out by:
.256 Texas
.250 Oakland
.246 Chicago
.231 Seattle

Overall, not the company you want your line-ups to be paling around with.

Specifically, what have the Yankees done poorly with RISP, which are the situations that are defining their offensive troubles as much as anything of late?

Double plays/RISP: They've grounded into the second most DPs in the league when presented a good scoring opportunity. But the team that's first has had 43 more plate appearances in these situations.

31 in 826 PAs - Toronto
27 in 773 PAs - New York
26 in 756 PAs - Minnesota
24 in 685 PAs - Detroit
24 in 783 PAs - Boston

Sacrifice Flies: They're 2nd to last in the American League in SFs/RISP. The Yanks have 15; the Royals have 10. The Royals, by the way, are hitting about the same as New York with RISP: .262 to .261. Again, not exactly the offense you want to pattern yourselves after.

There are things the Yankees have done well with RISP, relative to the rest of their A.L. brethren.

a. They've hit the second most doubles (42; the Jays have 48).
b. They've hit the most home runs (21).
c. They're 13-0 in stolen bases. That total ranks 7th in this category, but Cleveland is the only other team that's been perfect in these situations and they have 7 steals.
d. They're 3rd in walks at 102 (Boston and Tampa have 113).
e. Maybe surprisingly, they haven't struck out an inordinate amount of time with RISP. And K's are the silent cousin of the Real Rally Killers, i.e. double plays. They're tied for 7th with Minnesota at 117. Tampa has the most with 171. As an aside, the Rays have also had the most RISP opportunities with 877 plate appearances.
f. They're in the top 5 in the A.L. in OBP/RISP:
.394 Boston
.371 Tampa
.368 Cleveland
.367 Baltimore
.364 New York
g. Thanks to the aforementioned doubles & home run totals, they're third in SLG/RISP at .364.

This doesn't appear to be a team that has some inherent trait that forces them to go into the fetal position when there are runners standing on second base or third base or both. This is a team with an .805 OPS/RISP. The league average is .769.

Is their propensity to hit into double plays a function of bad luck? Their age (slow feet & sometimes tired/lazy bats)? A fault of not "being able to grind things out in a big spot"?

What about not being able to hit a sac fly every now and then with a guy on third base? It has been cited many times, by fans, talk show hosts and the media in general, that this is a poor situational baseball team. And this is the kind of nugget that supports the hysteria. Making it somewhat less hysterical.

The one potential silver lining I do want to point out is their BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play. For those unfamiliar with this stat, here it from the proverbial horse's mouth. From Baseball Prospectus:

Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.

The average BABIP in the A.L. with runners in scoring position this year is .296. The Yanks are at .283, which is in the bottom 5 in the league:

.245 - Seattle
.275 - Oakland
.276 - Chicago
.283 - New York
.284 - Minnesota

In all situations, the Yankees BABIP is .287 is 11th in the A.L.

From how I understand the stat, that number is going to continually try and pull itself towards the .300 range. And at quick glance, this seems to be a consistent stat over the last several, full seasons.

2008
.302 - MLB Average
.325 - Highest (Texas)
.281 - Lowest (Chicago AL)

2007
.305 - MLB Average
.323 - Highest (Detroit)
.278 - Lowest (Chicago AL)

2006
.305 - MLB Average
.324 - Highest (Cleveland)
.285 - Lowest (Oakland)

I'll admit I'm a novice at using this stat to look at team-wide offenses, and I'm still learning how it applies to individual players. (For an interesting article on David Wright's season and this stat, go here.). As a general statement, it does seem to be in line with the overall quality of an offense. Tampa's OPS+ is 111, tops in the league; they're hitting .315 on balls in play, also tops in the league. Likewise, Oakland is last in the league in OPS+ and last in the league in BABIP at .265. The White Sox, for example, have been among the worst in the league in this category for several years and are again this year. So I'm assuming a correlation between the quality of hitters on your team and BABIP.

The reason I brought this stat up in relation to the Yankees, is that their BABIPs (RISP and overall) are numbers more typical of a bad offense. And of all the things I can say about the Yankees, I can't say they're a bad offense. They've been bad lately, but they're scoring 5.4 R/G on the season (2nd in the league) and are among the top five in the American League in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+, home runs and stolen bases.

Their BABIPs put them down with teams like the Royals and the Mariners and the White Sox, which makes me think the Yanks' numbers have the potential to rise as the season progresses. Which should/could equate to more hits and more runs. Of course, the stat is also a measure of defensive efficiency (turning batted balls in play into outs), so maybe they've just had a lot of glove being flashed against them . . . or they have some extra hits heading their way to balance things out a bit.

Last night in Atlanta, the Yanks were 2-9 with RISP. However, one of those hits was a key in helping them to an 8-4 victory, and one of their bigger hits in a couple of weeks. With the bases loaded and two outs in a 1-1 game in the 6th, Alex Rodriguez delivered a line drive single to right to score two and give New York a lead it wouldn't relinquish.

2009-06-23T20:20:00.002-04:00

A Bad Moon Rising

This is one of those moments, when I sit back in my chair and marvel to what extent this New York Yankee franchise has been deconstructed.

Down again tonight. This time 3-0 to the Braves. A two-time 19-game winner is on the verge of getting bounced from the rotation, which will put a stake in the Joba-to-the-Bullpen contingent. A defensive play that should've been made with two outs and no one on helped open the door to a three-spot in the bottom of the 3rd for Atlanta. No excuses for Wang though; the hits he's given up could've been hung up on a line.

There is a ton of talk now about the A-Rod contract. Pete Abraham wrote about it this morning. Tyler Kepner wrote about A-Rod's current freefall in The Times. We all knew it was a bad contract from the beginning. Did we suspect it could turn nightmarish? Maybe some doomsayer out there was making a clarion call that this could potentially be the worst contract in the history of professional sports. I never went that far. I couldn't foresee the guy having a degenerative hip or succumbing to the steroids hysteria. Although the latter wasn't much of a surprise.

Alex Rodriguez needs a big summer. If July & August are anything close to his .153/.315/.288 (.288!) June, then this will go beyond simple contract-regret and typical booing into a kind of frantic search for an answer to one question: how are the Yankees going to get out of this contract?

2009-06-20T07:52:00.017-04:00

Saturday Morning Snapshot
(The Pitching Friendly Edition - Look, Tables!)
Main Topics: Pettitte & Dice-K

Edited 9:38 a.m.

From Pete Abe's LoHud blog, posted last night after the game:

Those who think the skewed dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium aren’t a factor should ask Andy Pettitte what he thinks. The lefty has a 5.77 ERA at Yankee Stadium in nine starts. In six starts on the road, it’s 2.35. He has allowed nine home runs in the Bronx, two elsewhere.

“I might have given up three or four (home runs) tonight at home,” he said after holding the Marlins to one run over seven innings. “For the most part, that’s it right there. I’ve given up a few more long balls at Yankee Stadium. … I need to figure something out at home.”

The other pitchers, for the most part, feel the same way. While the new Lil’ Stadium helps the hitters, it’s causing havoc among the pitchers. They’re pitching away from contact, giving up more home runs, etc. Over the course of time, it’s detrimental to maintaining mechanics and confidence.

Alright, let's take a quick look at some pitching numbers. Road stats do not include last night's game in Florida.

Home
326 IP / 7.70 K/9 / 53 HR / 1.48 WHIP / 4.91 ERA
Road
275.2 IP / 7.20 K/9 / 34 HR / 1.35 WHIP / 4.56 ERA

That's a pretty crude study, but to go further, you could bring into account strength of schedule on the road vs. at home and a myriad of other factors. This will suffice for now. *Outside of the increased home run rate, which isn't enormous if you take into account the differences in innings played, the Yankees' staff isn't getting bludgeoned at home compared to the road. The rate stats are better on the road, but they're also benefiting from a .281 BAbip away from New York vs. a typical .304 at home.

*Update, 9:38 a.m.: The home run rate while looking small on the surface [1.4 HR/9 at Yankee Stadium vs. 1.1 HR/9 on the road] does end up making a huge difference. Equaling out the number of innings played at home and on the road to 326, the staff would have allowed 53 gopher balls at the former and 40 at the latter. As we'll see below, Pettitte plays a big role in this difference.

The Yankees have used only six starting pitchers this year, which is a far cry from the 13 they had to hand the ball to last season. Included in that motley cast of characters were Kei Igawa, Dan Giese, Carl Pavano, of course, and even Brian Bruney for a start. We think things are rocky this year with the pitching staff? Darrell Rasner started 20 games last year, but I digress.

Burnett and Chamberlain have started 13 games apiece and Sabathia and Pettitte have both thrown 14 games. Hughes and Wang round things out with seven and six starts respectively. Leaving Hughes & Wang aside, let's look at the main four starters and their home/road splits.

Record at Yankee Stadium

Player	Starts	Innings	K/9	HR	WHIP	ERA
Sabathia	7	49.2	5.26	4	1.15	3.99
Burnett	7	46.0	8.80	7	1.43	3.91
Chamberlain	7	33.0	9.82	3	1.55	5.18
Pettitte	8	48.1	5.77	9	1.76	5.77

On The Road

Player	Starts	Innings	K/9	HR	WHIP	ERA
Sabathia	7	51.0	7.06	4	1.08	3.35
Burnett	6	34.2	7.53	5	1.47	5.19
Chamberlain	6	36.1	6.96	4	1.35	2.72
Pettitte	6	38.1	6.10	2	1.15	2.35

Well, there's not much here that suggests that Yankee Stadium has been obviously detrimental (or will be detrimental "over the course of time") to any regular starter besides Andy Pettitte. I'm struck by the similarity of Sabathia's home/road splits; the numbers go up (with the K's going down) a tick at home, but nothing stark. Burnett has actually been better, much better, at Yankee Stadium, and my perception of Joba is that he's been burned less by his home ballpark than his wildness, immaturity and inexperience. In three less innings of work, he's walked five more batters at home than on the road, and has actually allowed fewer home runs in the "Lil' Stadium" than at opposing parks.

Pettitte though? Well, small sample size blah blah blah aside, it does look like the Stadium has had an ill effect on the veteran left-hander. The 9:2 home run split just jumps off the page, and based on the quotes from Abraham it seems to now be inside his head. "I need to figure something out at home" indicates that he's going to make some kind of adjustment but what? Pitch sequence? Trying to nibble on the corners more?

Burnett's given up seven home runs at the new park this year, but that's balanced out by five on the road (in 11+ less innings of work to boot).

The only other starter that really jumps off the page in terms of his home run split (and I'm not going to even bother looking at Wang's numbers) is Phil Hughes. In 24+ innings on the work on the road he's allowed two long balls. At home: five home runs in 18 IP.

And for what it's worth, here's a quick wrap on what the four relievers with the heaviest workloads have done at home vs. the road. All four have pitched between 17-19 innings at home, and 8-11+ on the road. Home WHIPs are first:

Aceves:
WHIP: 1.89 / 1.18
Coke:
WHIP: 0.92 / 1.32
Rivera:
WHIP: 1.16 / 0.92
Veras
WHIP: 1.38 / 1.56

Jose Veras in 8.1 innings of work on the road compiled this line: 8.1/10/5 earned runs/4/5 good for an 8.64 ERA. Easy to see why he was DFA'ed.

Again, when you're talking about eight and 11 innings of work, these are very small sample sizes, but Veras actually pitched better at home for whatever that's worth, and Coke has been much better at the new ballpark. I can't speak for Aceves particularly, but the times I've seen Mariano struggle at Yankee Stadium it's been less about wind currents and short fences, than line drives getting hit all over the joint.

In any case, I'm not convinced that the new Stadium has been "detrimental" to anyone's confidence besides Andy Pettitte, the subject of Abraham's story to begin with. He needed a tidy concluding sentence like all writers do, but I'm not sure it quite fits. And besides the team is 21-14 at home and 17-15 on the road. So they're coping.

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The End of the Dice-K Era?

Rob Neyer was busy last night, and piggy-backed on David Pinto's post at Baseball Musings. What does that make me? Oh well, whatever, never mind . . .

Well, all that pitching depth is about to pay off if the Red Sox idle Matsuzaka for a spell. Which isn't all that easy, since his contract actually prohibits a trip to the minors. If they don't want him to pitch, they'll have to send him to the bullpen or make up some sort of injury. Plus, it's just one lousy game. Granted, there have been other lousy games. But before Friday night, Dice-K had, at the very least, been striking out and walking reasonable numbers of batters. It's probably not quite the time to panic.

And of course there's still Clay Buchholz. Wednesday night in Pawtucket, John Smoltz -- in his "final tuneup" before joining the big club -- started for the PawSox and went four solid innings ... but it's Buchholz who got the victory with four solid innings of his own. In 71 innings, Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 65 strikeouts.

I would agree with David that the Red Sox' pitching depth will pay off. It has already, and almost certainly will again. But I still maintain that the Red Sox, right now, have more than they need. And that they might have been better off worrying last winter about their shortstops.

The one thing Rob didn't point out, which Pinto alluded to, is Dice-K's H/9, which stood at 14.8 before last night. It was 8.4 in '07 and 6.9 last year. There has to be some regression in that number, but the bottom line is he isn't getting bleeped and blooped to death. He's getting whacked. His line drive percentage was steady in both of his first two seasons at 18%. This year, it's close to 30%. Theo Epstein and Bill James and HAL 9000 know all these numbers better than I do, and they're not going to sit there and watch this guy pitch like this when there are capable moundsmen waiting in the wings.

I've probably been a supporter (and I use that term with the lightest of connotations) of Daisuke Matsuzaka more than most people in these parts. The Red Sox fans are tired of him. The Yankee fans think he's been over-rated. And both camps are right in their own respective ways. If one of my projected top 3 starters were pitching to an 8.23 ERA and an unsightly 2.20 WHIP then yeah, I'd be pretty sick of it too. And truth be told, Matsuzaka has not lived up to the expectations that were levied on him in the winter of 2007, and there was a bit of smoke-and-mirrors act to his 2008 campaign.

However, the record does show he had a 200 inning/200 strikeout season for a team that won a championship. His record in 2007 wasn't as good as his peripherals would suggest, as he went 15-13 that season. Last year with the strikeout rate dipping a bit and his walks taking a turn for the worse, he still went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, which probably was a little misleading. But again, 160+ innings of work for a team that was one win away from another trip to the World Series.

Cut it however you'd like, but Masuzaka has been a major contributor to the Red Sox since 2007 and his apparent/possible demise is a problem for them. There's been so much talk about the Sox rotation, it's made prospective fantasy league GMs out of all us: who's out/who's in, should they trade Penny, how long are they going to let Buchholz rot in Pawtucket. John Smoltz is on his way, scheduled to pitch Thursday in what would be Matsuzaka's normal turn in the rotation. Although he's apparently been lights-out in his minor league stints, do we really know what the old, venerable right-hander is going to give the Sox from now until October? Buchholz is a guy who apparently has sorted out the kinks. And he better have; he pitched to a 6.75 ERA in 76 innings of work in the bigs last season.

Some if this is a Yankee fan grasping at straws. This (Boston) is a team that has the 2nd best run differential in the sport and has been the 2nd best team in the American League at preventing runs. For all of the inconsistency in the starting rotation this season, they're still 13 over .500 and in first place and remain the best team in the A.L. And now it looks as if they're going to make major changes to their rotation, whether it's simply addition & subtraction, or the quasi-six-man rotation that's being bandied about. Smoltz for Dice-K makes sense right now, but if they're going to try and shoehorn Buchholz in there for Penny, who's pitched well post-April, there's a chance that things will be getting jumbled a little too much for their own good.

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On My Turntable

Neil Young. Lots of Neil Young. I don't think I'm going to make the plunge and buy the Mt. Olympus of all box sets. For the time being, I'm content to just plunge into the varied live recordings I have and the various studio albums in my collection. He's an artist that you can forever chase and never catch, like Dylan like Robert Pollard like a whale of some renown. The archives just go on and on like an endless stream. Watching the river flow, indeed. You never quite reach fulfillment with artists like these, which makes something like Archives both a monument and a gnomon.

Listened to a wonderful Nirvana recording last night for the first time. Melbourne, early '92. Sounded golden. That was right in the thick of it. And it now takes it's place alongside the Del Mar, California December '91 show as the best documents I've heard that capture that moment when it all went boom.

One of my favorite documentaries is streaming at Pitchfork. One week only though. There's at least one GBV fan who frequents these parts from time to time . . .

2009-06-19T06:13:00.002-04:00

A Hard Rain
(The "You Gotta Be Kidding Me!" Edition)

Alright, if I put the over/under at 10.5 (for the Yankees' 15 games from the Nationals series through the Mariners series), the under is looking pretty darn good this morning. Last night, after the dreariest June day I can ever remember and an interminable, please-put-us-out-of-our-misery rain delay, the Yanks concluded what was nothing less than a deplorable series loss to the worst team in baseball. A team that is/was/maybe still is on pace to be one of the worst teams of all-time. A team that hadn't won a series since May 8-10, well over a month ago.

There's the Joba issue and the Wang issue that weigh on the make-up of this team on a daily basis, with the bullpen/starter/bullpen/starter scuttlebutt forever on an endless reel. Beyond those issues, which did rear their heads over the last few days no question, the Yankee bats went dead against the worst team at run prevention. In a series that was just begging for stat-padding, Robbie Cano-style, the rest of the team took a pass, opting for ridiculously quick & impatient at-bats early last night and waking up too late in all three games offensively to do much damage.

The Yanks dropped to 8-8 in June, and have now officially entered the next phase of their season. After a woeful April and a spitfire May, which carried into the first week or so of this month, the team has settled into the kind of malaise that has been the trademark of most of the Yankee teams post-'04. The difference this time around is that they're not floating around the .500 mark and in need of a 30-15 2nd half spurt to get back into contention. They're right there, still the favorites for the Wild Card, a manageable three games behind Boston. But when I hear my friends say things like, "This team is tough to watch" and "This team is tough to root for," well . . . this is the kind of thing they're talking about.

When the bats go dead on this team, even for three days (and granted it's more pronounced against the heretofore pitching-challenged Nats) it's like a four-alarm siren. Because the only thing about this team that even hints at being "special" is their offense. Their ability to get on base; their ability to hit home runs. And when those things go down the tubes, there's just not much there.

From the beats. McCarron first [Daily News]:

The loss to the lowly Nats, which meant that the worst team in baseball - by far - took two of three games from the Yanks, plunged Joe Girardi into a funk. Afterward, the manager was clearly disappointed in the team's recent play and refused to delve into the Yanks' ineptitude against unknown hurlers.

"For me, I'm just not going to talk about it," Girardi said. "You've got to find ways to win games. That's the bottom line. We can harp on this this year, last year, the year before, 1999. But you have to find ways to win and put runs on the board, even if you don't know the pitcher. Look for a pitch and hit it."

Jack Curry in the Times, with an idiotic quote from a once self-proclaimed idiot:

“I think it probably seemed like 30,000 empty seats,” he said. “Thirty thousand smart people who didn’t want to weather the delay and wanted to watch it on TV.”

Hey Johnny, what does that make the people who weathered the delay, pun intended, and had to sit there and watch your half-assed performance?

Damon, by the way, is at the front of the line when it comes to the recent Yankee run of mediocrity. He's got four dingers and four doubles in June so he's slugging at a .500 clip for the month, which is fine (he was .500 in April and .565 in May), but his other main rate stats have plummeted.

Batting Average
.295 - April
.304 - May
.214 - June

OBP
.385 - April
.355 - May
.302 - June

From Pete Abraham's LoHud Blog:

UPDATE, 9:30 p.m.: And the Yankees have lost two of three to the Nationals. If this is not the low point of the season, I’m not sure what could be.

The Yankees just scored seven runs in 26 innings against the worst pitching staff in baseball — two in the last 18. It’s an embarrassment. The Nationals came to New York planning to fire their manager and took two of three. Brutal.

The Nationals were 16-45 when they showed up. They had lost 25 of 30. The Yankees mailed it in for three days and that falls on the manager. Even the game they won was a no-show job for six innings.

For a beat writer, Pete doesn't mince words, which is why he probably has one of the top two or three most popular Yankee blogs on the planet.

Now the Yanks head off to that wasteland of a stadium to play the Marlins for three days. Yeah. Even if New York manages to take 2 of 3 in their next four series (Marlins, Braves, Mets, Mariners) they would still only hit the baseline of what I thought would be acceptable in these 15 games: 9-6. Amazing how a series loss to one team can change the colors of the landscape.

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Foot-In-the-Mouth Disease

Wrote this little nugget on Tuesday night:
They're even with the Rays as I write, but I imagine in 24-48 hours that will change, and once they fall behind them it's going to be brutal for the Jays to keep up the pace.

As of this morning, the Jays are now up two on the Rays after an fairly improbably sweep at Philadelphia. I was home from work a little earlier than usual yesterday, so I was able to catch the last few innings of the Toronto game. They showed a lot of grit, and the Phillies are now 13-19 at home (23-9 on the road).

Meanwhile, the Rays lost the last two games of the Rockies series, and have slid back to two over .500. The Rockies are back to the .500 mark for the first time since April. Catching L.A. is a pipe dream, as it is for everyone in the West, but Colorado is now just 2.5 games behind St. Louis for the Wild Card. As Neyer noted earlier this week, it's amazing what one hot streak in June can do for a club. This is a team whose season looked lost, its manager fired and issues to address on both sides of the ball. They're now a player in the playoff race.

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Most Interesting Series of the Weekend

Tampa @ New York (NL)
Milwaukee @ Detroit (The two leaders of the Central divisions)
Dodgers @ Angels (The halos have won six in a row, and are now within a game of the Yanks and 1.5 of the Rangers for the division lead)

2009-06-17T05:24:00.004-04:00

In a Sea of Interleague

The Yankees began a stretch of 15 games last night that I expect will push their season record to a high-water mark of 13-15 games over .500 when it's completed.

3 vs. Washington
3 at Florida
3 at Atlanta
3 at New York
3 vs. Seattle

It's their last, extended rocking chair stretch of the season, with only smaller pockets of breathers (7 vs. Oakland/Baltimore in July; a West Coast slate against Oakland & Seattle in August) left in the schedule.

To the north, the Boston Red Sox are settling in for a summer of crusin', riding in style with the top down. A quick look at their schedule, and it's easy to see that Boston is set up well to maintain their stranglehold on the division into the midst of August.

Just knocking through the schedules quickly, I put the Sox at 66-40 and the Yankees at 62-45 going into their next series, August 6-9 at Yankee Stadium. By that time, I think the Yanks have a shot to be up 5+ games in the Wild Card, which means any subsequent match-ups between Boston and New York will be more about playoff positioning than anything else. Beyond the issue of the Yankees trying to get over the impenetrable, tantalizing, mind-numbing wall of beating Boston for the first time this year, if they can jockey back into position to make a run at the division over the final six or seven weeks of the season, it could be to their clear advantage come October.

I haven't thought this way in the past, but for the first time I think there is some value in securing the extra game at home if these two old combatants were to meet again in the post-season. And that's simply because of the way Yankee Stadium is playing, which I think would be a slight advantage to the Yankees' more power-laden line-up. Of course the Sox are 22-8 at home so there's that issue too.

----
Nothing like National League competition to help Tampa hit their stride. The Rays have won six in a row now, and have settled in comfortably above .500 now at +4. This is a dangerous team despite their wobbly first two months. They lead the league in runs, and their pitching is rounding into shape: 2nd in the A.L. with a 2.89 ERA in June.

Looking at the landscape of the league, the line for New York's competition for the A.L.'s 4th playoff spot begins & ends in Pinellas County.

----
The Jays staved off their freefall with a nice win against the Phillies last night, scoring five runs in the top of the 10th for an 8-3 win. They're even with the Rays as I write, but I imagine in 24-48 hours that will change, and once they fall behind them it's going to be brutal for the Jays to keep up the pace.

----
Big Papi hit his 5th homer of the year last night. His rate stats are still deplorable for the season (.210/.308/.355), but it's now time to suggest he's starting to come around. For June he's hitting .333/.429/.694 with 4 HR and 10 RBI. My earlier suspicion that we'd see Ortiz enter the realm of respectability, in terms overall numbers, by late July is starting to come to fruition. He's not shot just yet.

----
I keep discounting Texas in the way that I've discounted Toronto all along, as I envision LA/Anaheim asserting themselves as the summer rolls on and eventually taking control of that division. However, the Rangers are still maintaining a two-game lead and are now nine over .500 after last night's 6-1 win over the Astros. L.A. and Texas meet six times before the All-Star Break (6/29-7/1 in Texas; 7/6-7/8 in Anaheim). That little run could give an indicator of where the Rangers stand with half of the season in the books. Sidenote: Kevin Millwood dropped his ERA to 2.62 last night throwing a 7/4/1/1/3/6 line at Houston. In three starts in June (Boston, Toronto, Houston) he's 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA in 21.2 innings of work. I can't imagine him keeping up that kind of work, but he's had an outstanding season so far. This is from a guy whose ERA ranged from 4.52 to 5.16 over the last three seasons.

----
After the weekend series in the Bronx, the frustration of the Mets' fans was palpable on talk radio. One reason I can't pull the plug on them yet, or anyone in the National League for that matter: at the close of play on Sunday, the San Francisco Giants were the Wild Card leaders, albeit by percentage points over St. Louis. The Cards have a 1/2 game lead on New York and San Fran entering today's action. The story of the Giants has been one of "good pitch, no hit" all season long. However, this month they've found themselves in the realm of respectability with the lumber. Currently 6th the N.L. in runs scored for the month of June, they're hitting .268/.300/.410. That OBP number is dreadful to be sure, and they're actually dead last in the N.L. at .313 for the season, but their BA and SLG for the month are okay. And when you pitch like they do, you can be merely shrug-of-the-shoulders-okay with the bats, and you'll still win some ballgames.

Their pitching has remain remarkably steady throughout. ERA month-by-month:
3.90 - April
3.75 - May
3.54 - June

For the season, their 2nd in the N.L. in ERA behind the Dodgers, 3.57 to 3.70.

2009-06-06T19:58:00.008-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee
(The "Say it ain't so, Mo" edition)

If writing is in any way therapeutic, then I need a dose of it this morning. Yesterday's Yankee loss got under my skin and stuck in my craw until the evening hours. Throw in the fact that Jon Lester appears to be out of his early-season funk, and you have the recipe for a rough baseball day.

The weather was lousy on the back end of the workweek here in the Northeast, with Friday night being downright dreadful. Yesterday was one of those high-pressure-fronts-moving-in days where the air is crisp, the humidity is low and the sky is a consistent blue. A perfect day for June. With the rainout on Friday, the Sabathia-Price match-up on tap and a 1:00 start, I was raring to go. I put a little extra emphasis on this one.

Tampa came in winners of three in a row, and had fought their way back to the .500 mark despite their inconsistency & injuries over the first two months of the season. Since May 8, the Yankees have played only one other team that I think is going to wind up being better than the Rays this season: Philadelphia two weeks ago. Needless to say, with the Sox & Mets coming up, I thought this series would be a nice warm-up, and a challenge for New York to continue their winning ways.

It didn't happen as Mariano Rivera had his worst outing of the season. Given the ball and asked to preserve a 5-5 tie in the top of the 9th, he gave up four runs (three earned) and four hits, all of them seemingly bullets being sprayed into the outfield grass. New York showed some spunk to mount a rally in the 9th, but a hard hit ball off the bat of Cano, who was the tying run, landed in B.J. Upton's glove in deep center to end the game. Tampa 9, New York 7.

As P. Abraham pointed out in his blog, the Yanks are now 2-9 vs. Boston and Tampa with a run differential of -24.

Yesterday was my first opportunity to see David Price start, and I was impressed.

Price threw 107 pitches, 53 of them for strikes, which isn't a good ratio. Amazingly though, it never felt like he wasn't in control of the game. The Yankees had a good approach against him, cognizant of taking pitches early in counts and generally made him work throughout. But his velocity never wavered (typically 95 on the fastball), and they couldn't do much with the few opportunities they had. He finished with a line of 5.2/2/3/1/5/3

I think by 2011 he's going to be one of the best starters in the A.L. and has a great shot to be one of the top 5 starters in the game in about the same timeframe.

As far as Mariano? Maybe I over-stated the case when I left a message on my friend's voicemail yesterday after the top of the 9th, exasperated & disgusted. My basic point was that Rivera has now become an "X-factor" against the better offensive teams in the American League. And I'm speaking specifically about Boston, Tampa and maybe a team like Detroit, i.e. the type of teams New York would end up playing in a post-season series. In the case of Boston, it's been this way since the early part of this decade.

Supporters are going to point out an impeccable 28:2 K:BB ratio in 23.1 innings of work. And while I wouldn't ever want to be labeled a "detractor" of Mariano, I think it's worth noting that within that same workload he's given up 26 hits, nine earned runs and five home runs. Yesterday wasn't about old position players with limited range not getting to balls; it was about a great reliever in his twilight not having good stuff and getting racked all over the park.

As of this morning, ESPN projects his season out to include 77 hits allowed in 68 innings of work, an ERA of 3.47 and a record of 0-6.

Since he became the closer in 1997, here are his IP:H splits
71.2 : 65
61.1 : 48
69.0 : 43
75.2 : 58
80.2 : 61
46.0 : 35 (This was '02. Off the top of my head I don't remember the details, but there were injury issues there.)
70.2 : 61
78.2 : 65
78.1 : 50
75.0 : 61
71.1 : 68
70.2 : 41
??.? : ??

In that same timeframe he's only had an ERA over three once, and that was in '07 (3.15).

I bring up this topic not to complain or suggest a different course of action. As I said in the aforementioned phone message yesterday, there is nothing the Yankees should do . . . even if they could.

All I'm saying is that this is now morphing from "Mo's occasional hiccup" to something more problematic. And it's not like we haven't seen Rivera rendered human in the post-season before . . .

In addition, I'm glad I'm not on the lunatic fringe of addressing this topic. Of course, if I'm in concert with the New York media scribes, then maybe I am dabbling in lunacy. From P. Abraham's LoHud Blog yesterday:

My vote is no, not worried. I think these blips are natural as Mo ages, but he’s still better than almost every other closer out there, including Jon Papelbon, who has his own issues with hits and walks. It seems like Mo as a few of these every year then you look up four weeks later and he at 1.79 and blowing people away.

But if you are worried, it’s hard to argue after seeing him walk off that mound today.

And from John Harper this morning in the Daily News:

There is so much to like about these Yankees, from the best starting pitching this franchise has had since 2003 to a late-inning grit that has the home dugout believing no deficit is too big to overcome.

But what if the great Rivera, at age 39, has lost just enough to make the ninth inning an issue after all these years?

Four of the five batters Rivera faced, two lefthanders and two righthanders, put good swings on his cutter and squared it up in ways no Yankee fan is accustomed to seeing.

One major league scout who was at the game said, "I can't remember seeing so many comfortable swings" against Rivera.

"I saw the stadium gun had him at 92," the scout said, "but I think that's a tick high. I had him at 91, and that makes his cutter much more hittable than it used to be. The break on it didn't have much late life today.

"He can still break (lefthanded hitters') bats when he gets in on their hands, but when he misses location I think he's going to pay more now. The thing that registered with me was how Zobrist took him to left-center for that triple.

"Lefthanded hitters are usually so inside-conscious of his cutter that he freezes them when he goes backdoor (outside corner). Zobrist had time to get to that pitch today and do something with it."

----
What can I say about Jon Lester's performance last night at Fenway? Throughout the Big Papi storm I've maintained that as long as Boston stays strong at the front of that rotation they're still the best team in the sport. Well, Beckett was very good in May after a poor April, and now Lester appears to be back on the beam. To put it mildly.

As a follow-up to his win at Toronto last weekend in which he struck out a career-high 12 batters, Lester flirted with perfection at the Fens.

Picking up Nick Cafardo's report in the Globe this morning:

[He] was perfect until Michael Young doubled to the left-center field gap with one out in the seventh.

Lester, who improved to 5-5 and lowered his ERA to 5.09, ended with a two-hitter and the crowd stood up and roared.

While he lamented allowing the hit, "at least it was a well-struck ball," he said.

Lester, throwing 96-97 miles per hour, has struck out 23 over the last two games, after 11 Ks last night. He issued two walks, and Young had both hits.

He had 10 strikeouts through six innings, fanning the top of the Texas order (Ian Kinsler, Young, and Andruw Jones), all swinging, in the fourth. There were six innings of perfection, when he was either overpowering with his fastball or getting hitters to wave at his changeup in the dirt. It was stunning what he could do with the baseball.

I concur. I picked up the game going into the 6th, and Lester looked as good as any hurler I've seen this year. Need a sinker in the low 90s? Got it. How about 97 mph heater on the black, outside corner against a lefty with two strikes? Yup. A crisp, knee-buckling breaking ball spotted on dime? Had that too.

Watching him last night, it's hard to fathom how this guy still has an ERA north of 5.00. With things lining up again at the front of that rotation, the rest of American League better take heed. And hope some other aspect(s) of this team springs a leak, because when they're firing on all cylinders, no one's going to touch 'em.

2009-06-05T07:39:00.003-04:00

Better Late Than Never
(The Return)
Edited: corrected May runs allowed column

Time consuming and more trouble than its worth. Nevertheless, I'm pushing on with the next installment of Perusing the Stats. How useful are stats that are now four days old? Not very. But I still want to keep just a general tab on the progress of the season at monthly intervals. If you're looking for a "real" post, that should be coming by tomorrow morning.

Perusing the Stats v. 2.1
May 2009 Round-up

All totals are through May 31, 2009
American League Offense
Runs Scored Total
294 Tampa Bay
283 New York
274 Cleveland
271 Texas
270 Toronto

Runs Scored - May
184 Tampa Bay
168 Minnesota (were 12th in the A.L. in the month of April)
157 Cleveland
155 New York
148 Texas

How much of a difference did Joe Mauer's return make to Minnesota's line-up? After averaging 4.2 R/G this first month of the season, they were up to 5.6 R/G in May.

Runs Scored - Bottom 5 - Total
197 Seattle
205 Oakland
209 Kansas City
212 Chicago
233 Los Angeles

Run Scored - Bottom 5 - May
104 Seattle
112 Kansas City
115 Chicago
126 Oakland
128 Toronto & Los Angeles

Toronto's numbers in April: 142 runs (1st in the A.L.), .292/.366.472
Toronto's numbers in May: 128 runs, .275/.321/.388

Team OBP - Season to Date
.357 Cleveland
.356 Boston
.355 New York
.354 Tampa Bay
.350 Toronto

Team OBP - May
.362 Tampa Bay
.360 Minnesota
.356 Cleveland
.350 Boston
.349 New York

Worst Team OBP - Season to Date
.311 Seattle
.316 Oakland
.324 Chicago
.325 Kanas City
.321 Texas

The "Which Team Doesn't Belong on this List?" has to be the Rangers. Through May they were 4th in the league in runs scored, so it's hard to figure how they're fifth from the bottom in getting on base. With their SLG numbers both in May and overall, you can see that just with a couple more timely baserunners, their run total could be even better.

Worst Team OBP - May
.311 Seattle
.315 Chicago
.319 Oakland
.321 Kansas City
.322 Baltimore

Team SLG - Season to Date
.489 Texas
.486 New York
.457 Boston
.452 Tampa Bay
.441 Baltimore

Team SLG - May
.497 New York
.483 Texas
.461 Minnesota
.455 Tampa Bay
.454 Baltimore

If you had told me a year ago that on this date Manny Ramirez would be gone and Big Papi was sitting on a 186/.282/.284 line, and yet the Red Sox would still be one of the top offenses in the American League, I would've been scratching my head a bit. The Sox continue to get on base, and they ranked 6th in SLG in May and are 3rd in SLG overall.

Worst SLG - Season to Date
Oakland
Seattle
Chicago
Kansas City
Los Angeles

Worst SLG - May
.378 Oakland
.388 Kansas City
.390 Chicago
.394 Los Angeles
.398 Seattle

OPS, RISP - Season to Date
.866 Baltimore
.865 Detroit
.849 Boston
.841 New York
.806 Tampa Bay

This is kind of my "doing damage when it counts" stat, and it shouldn't go unnoticed that four of the top 5 spots here are teams from the A.L. East. And Toronto is #6 in this category. On the flip side the three worst teams in this category are all from the A.L. West.

Of course, the Orioles are the team that jumps off the page here. The forgotten team in the best division in baseball, Baltimore had a very strong ending to the month of May, winning 7 of their last 10.

Worst OPS, RISP - Season to Date
.709 Seattle
.723 Los Angeles
.734 Oakland
.740 Chicago
.761 Kansas City

Maybe it's kind of a quirky stat, but these have been the five worst offensive teams in the A.L. so far this year.

(AL pitching numbers and NL numbers to follow soon.)

2009-05-30T15:29:00.002-04:00

Saturday Afternoon Snapshot

Gathering my thoughts and contemplating whether Yield is Pearl Jam's best album. The Yankees are standing atop the A.L. East by their lonesome for the first time since October of 2006. It's been a long two-and-a-half years. Boston is trying to even things up in Toronto this afternoon, and just fell behind 4-3 in the 7th. It's one of those games you couldn't imagine them losing in a million years if their line-up was clicking on all cylinders. The Yanks send Sabathia to the mound tonight in Cleveland vs. Carmona.

Make that 5-3 Jays as they're racking Ramon Ramirez all over the park.

I'm getting ready to do my stats round-up for the month of May, and I was thinking about the top teams in the sport right now. The best team in baseball? That's a slam dunk, right? It's got to be the Dodgers at 34-16, with a run differential of 88. But who's the second best team in baseball right now? That's a little trickier. Look at how bunched up this group of teams is, with records and run differentials:

Teams with 23 losses or less:
29-19 (+25), Texas
28-20 (+17), Milwaukee
28-20 (+16), NYY
27-20 (+29), NYM
26-20 (+17), Philadelphia
28-20 (+31), St. Louis
28-21 (+27), Boston
26-21 (+13), Cincinnati
26-21 (+39), Detroit
24-23 (+4), Cubs
24-23 (-11), LAA
24-23 (-1), San Francisco
28-23 (+33), Toronto

Well, the team with the second-best RD after the Dodgers is the Tigers at +39. They've allowed the 2nd fewest runs in the A.L., but their 247 runs scored is good for only eighth in the league. Hardly a juggernaut. After that you got a choice of Toronto and St. Louis as the only other teams over 30. Toronto just broke a nine-game losing streak, and outside of one particular masher, that Cards' line-up is nothing to write home about.

If you were going to rank the teams with 20 losses on this date, 1 through 5 in terms of their performance so far this year, how would you do it? St. Louis could be #1 b/c of their run differential. The Yanks could be on top b/c of their recent run of success. The Mets? The Phils, despite their pitching woes?

If we're basing it on what they're going to do in the future, then I'm still favoring Boston, but as I've documented here plenty of times already, they have some cracks & fissures that haven't gotten sealed up yet. And are only becoming more problematic by the day.

My point being that I can't remember a time when baseball was this wide open. At least in terms of there being no separation of a "top level of teams." I think we can be confident that one playoff spot (N.L. West) is wrapped up, lock-stock-and-barrel. But after that? The largest divisional lead is held by Texas, 4.5 up on the Angels. And that Ranger bandwagon I assume is still pretty empty at this point.

Throw in a couple of teams under .500 that still might be heard before season's end (Minnesota and Tampa Bay, who happen to be playing each other this weekend) and you have a huge percentage of teams that will be in the mix for a playoff spot as we head into the later stages of the season.

2009-05-28T22:51:00.002-04:00

Even. Pt. 2
(The "Not Really Even" Edition)

The Red Sox were on the verge of relinquishing sole possession of first place to the Yankees this afternoon. Josh Beckett said, "To hell with that."

In a vintage performance, the Boston right hander threw his second excellent start in a row and paced the Sox to a 3-1 victory in the Metrodome. Beckett's pitching line of 7/3/1/1/4/8 followed up an 8/5/1/0/1/5 vs. the Mets and his ERA now stands at 4.60. Considering that number was 7.22 heading into May, he's made major strides to right the ship.

I may have over-stated Beckett being a "real concern" for the Sox at this point, as he really hasn't had a bad start this month. While not dominant (today's eight strikeouts were his most since April 30), he's been consistently good. In his five starts this month he didn't allow more than three runs in any start, never pitched less than six innings, allowed more than six hits only once and had a BB:K ratio of 12:28.

Rob Neyer took some notes while watching today's game. Here was his note on Beckett:

• Josh Beckett entered Thursday's game with a 5.01 ERA, but there's really been nothing wrong with him that a little luck won't cure, as he's struck out 51 batters in 56 innings but given up a .346 batting average on balls in play (his career mark is .303). Well, he could use more than just a little luck. He could use a bit of control, too, as his walk rate is more than twice as high this year as in 2007. My guess is that we'll never see the 2007 version of Beckett again, but that he'll settle in with an ERA this season in the low 4's, which is good enough.

More and more I'm learning the danger of simply relying on ERA as a barometer of a pitcher's level of performance. I should've dug a little deeper before lumping Beckett in with Lester, and making a blanket statement about the top of Boston's rotation. I guess you get what you pay for; I was on my lunch break after all.

It was a good game to listen to. In an odd twist, both starting catchers and managers got tossed in back-to-back half-innings. Mike Redmond was ejected for the first time in his career arguing a play at the plate that gave the Sox their 3rd run in the 7th; Gardenhire was run soon after. And then Varitek was thrown out in the bottom of the inning, presumably (and intelligently I might add) protecting Beckett who was yelling on the mound after not getting a strike call. Francona ran out to give his two cents and got the early exit as well. Todd Tichenor, a younger ump, was behind the plate. Don't know if it was a case of a young guy being overly sensitive, or two veteran catcher/manager tandems throwing their weight around a bit with a green umpire.

And speaking of Varitek, Neyer made the point that he has 10 HR now, after totaling 13 all of last year. In fact main rate stats are all up now: .248/.320/.541 this year vs. .220/.313/.359 in '08. Varitek has never slugged as high as .541 in his career. In fact the only time he's been over .500 was 2003 (.512). He probably won't keep up this pace all year, but one thing's for certain: for all the pros and cons that were dished in the off-season about his signing, it's now hard to believe that it was so hard to come to fruition. It looks like a no-brainer.

Before I give Boston and New York (and Rob Neyer) a break for the rest of the night, I just wanted to address one snide comment Neyer made in a post this morning, commenting on Chien-Ming Wang being in pitching limbo:

It's "funny" how the Yankees and the Red Sox have more starters than they can use, and almost every other team doesn't really have enough. In case you're wondering why they're both in the playoffs (almost) every year ...

The funny thing is the starting staffs for both teams haven't been very good this year. At all. New York's starters' ERA of 4.88 ranks 9th in the American League, which is a marked improvement from where they stood a couple of weeks ago. Boston's mark of 5.36 is "good" for 12th in the A.L. I know, I know I just made the point of ERA sometimes being misleading. Here's where the two teams' starters stand in some other categories:

Walks (both lousy)
115 - New York, 3rd worst
112 - Boston, 4th worst

Strikeouts (both pretty good)
218 - Boston (3rd)
211 - New York (5th)

OPS (both lousy)
.806 - Boston (12th)
.789 - New York (9th)

HR Allowed (both blah)
35 - New York (6th most)
34 - Boston (7th most)

The staffs of the two old rivals have been remarkably similar. Their stats are very close, and there are recurring themes that continue to face both organizations when it comes to their rotations: injury questions (Dice-K and Wang); dilemmas/roles of young pitchers (Hughes, Joba and Buchholz); inconsistency from talented arms (Lester and Burnett); reliance on two aces (Sabathia and Beckett); 5th starter questions; and two old warhorses trying to stay on top of their game (Pettitte and Wakefield).

So Neyer can suggest these two teams are dealing from a place of strength when it comes to starting pitching. But so far, the rotations have been not a strength, but a source of consternation and chaos.
----
Quiet night in the bigs tonight. Cubs and Dodgers are wrapping up a tight game in Wrigley. Braves and Snakes are dueling it out in the desert. That's it.

The Cavs really are on the brink now. Somehow they trail 79-78 heading into the final quarter. I've been in and out of the NBA game, opting to pay more attention to my writing and the Cubs game.

2009-05-28T12:41:00.002-04:00

Even.
(To be thrown off by a 1/2 game this afternoon)

I hope my buddy doesn't mind me snagging a snippet of an email I wrote to him the other day:

Look, I'm not getting excited yet. I'm really not. I still think Boston is going to win the division; they're still my favorite to get the World Series. However . . . some of these cracks need immediate attention from them. Ortiz? I honestly think he's going to right the ship. He's never going to hit 40 home runs again, but I think by mid-summer he'll be hitting respectably again with some pop. I just can't believe that he's just done.

But if he is . . . then that's a huge advantage for the Yankees.

Papelbon is still really good, but I like the fact that he's showing some vulnerability. Maybe people are sitting fastball more? Santos certainly did on Saturday. I didn't see the pitch to Mauer last night.

Their rotation is in some upheaval (will Dice-K return to form? What about Penny's spot in the rotation long-term?), and they've had some bumps & bruises so far too.

Long-term perspective, I think the Sox win the division and the Yanks are fighting for the Wild Card.

Short-term? There's no reason the Yanks, with the way they're playing, can't stay step-for-step with the Sox for the next 2 weeks, leading up the June 9/10/11 series at Fenway.

And I wouldn't be shocked if the Yanks head to Boston up a game or 2 in the standings by the time that series rolls around.

Well, now that the Yanks are back to even in the A.L. East, they can begin the business of actually building that game or two lead by the morning of June 9.

Two weeks ago I highlighted the May 19-June 4 stretch as an interesting/challenging one for Boston. They're 5-4 now, with still seven games left on the current road trip, this afternoon in Minny; three in Toronto; and three in Detroit.

If the Yankees were going to start nippin' at their heels, this was the chunk in the schedule when that was going to happen. However, when it comes to the Sawx there's no real demise to speak of, nothing to get gleeful about. Yet. Sure, they've scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games and the Big Papi Problem doesn't seem to be getting any better. But three of the top four guys in the current line-up are still hitting .307/.339/.373. And Lowell, whose batting fifth today is hitting over .300 as well. Jason Bay continues to sport an OPS north of 1.000

The real concern is Beckett (5.01 ERA) & Lester (6.07), and Dice-K (8.82 in 16.1 IP) to a lesser extent. They can live with Matsuzaka floundering in the short-term until he gets his feet back under him. They can't live with the front of their rotation continuing to be so hittable.

2009-05-24T12:45:00.002-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee
(The Pie-in-the-Face Edition)

"What a tenacious at-bat by Rodriguez."
Tim McCarver, Fox Analyst, after A-Rod tied the game in the 9th inning yesterday afternoon

It's been a strange season so far. Alex Rodriguez, tenacious? Robinson Cano stealing second base (only his third attempt of the season) setting up . . . Melky Cabrera's third walk-off hit in the first 43 games of the year?

On the morning of Friday, May 8, the Yanks woke up 13-15, looking like an old pup on its last legs. Boston stood at 18-11 and Toronto was 20-11. They were actually three percentage points behind the Rays. They were in fourth place.

They wake up today on the Sunday of Memorial Day Weekend even with the Red Sox at 25-18 and a half-game behind the floundering Jays. They lead the majors in comeback wins with 17 and have won nine games in their last at-bat. The make-up of this team has seemingly changed in an instant: I can only hope it's not fleeting.

Regardless of what happens in the next few days or even the next few weeks, this is the kind of stretch that makes the season captivating & worthwhile for a fan. Sam Borden, filling in for Pete Abraham who's on furlough, actually questioned whether this the Yankees' most exciting homestand ever. While I'm not taking that hyperbole too seriously, his general point is well taken.
----
Have you ever seen a guy who's hitting .204, yet is making the impact that A-Rod is? For all the anti-batting average guys, here's your ammo. A-Rod's OPS stands at 1.034 (.381/.653), and if you'll allow me a moment to goof around with the projections, he's on pace for 63 HR, 116 RBI, 107 BB, 71 K, 80 R. Keeping his current rates, that would leave room for 9 doubles, no triples and 17 singles.

That would be the oddest great year in the history of baseball, a sabermetrician's dream I would imagine with the power/patience combo.

However, on the horizon is that shadow, always looming. The Hip. A tweak here, a tweak there and this all comes crumbling down. But for now, his impact on this line-up has been almost immeasurable.
---
To reiterate what I wrote the other night, the Mets are a hard team to figure. I thought they were set-up to get swept in Fenway, with only a Johan Santana start giving them hope for a victory on the weekend. So the win on Friday night wasn't wholly unexpected. Last night though? I'll let Adam Rubin of the Daily News talk the floor:

The comeback came in the unlikeliest of circumstances. The Mets (23-19) were limited to one run in eight innings by Josh Beckett, who outdueled Mike Pelfrey. They were facing a closer without a blemish on his résumé this season, and an opponent with the best home record in the AL entering the night and a 19-0 record when leading after six innings. And the Mets were competing shorthanded, with Francisco Rodriguez the latest injury casualty. K-Rod was taken to the hospital via ambulance after the victory with severe back spasms.

Whenever occurrences like that take place at Fenway it's stunning. A great Josh Beckett start; Papelbon closing; 16-5 home record; Omir Santos . . . things just don't unravel like that for the Sox. Just a great win for the Mets, and as Rubin wrote one "that may define their season."
----
The Royals have come back to earth. Not that they were ever sky-rocketing to the outer limits of the atmosphere, but still. After beating the Mariners at home on May 7, which was their sixth consecutive victory at the time, Kansas City stood at 18-11 and three games in front of the Tigers. They proceeded to lose five in a row on the West Coast; split four with the Orioles; lose 2 out of 3 to Cleveland; and have now gotten shut out by the Cards 5-0 in two consecutive games.

In two weeks (3-11 since May 7), they've dropped seven games in the standings to Detroit who are now 24-17 and four up on K.C. Their offense has been anemic. In the last 14 days:

RS: 41, 11th in the A.L.
OPS: .704, 12th in the A.L.

Their pitching? Just as bad if not worse.

RA: 65, tied for 2nd to last with Baltimore
ERA: 5.31, 12th in the A.L.

The Royals have the game with the Cards this afternoon, and then welcome the Tigers in for three at home on Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. The dates of these games, May 25-27, belie the importance of the series for Kansas City. A four-game cushion is already a nice one for the Tigers; the Royals aren't good enough to allow it to get much wider than that at this point.
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Tampa's back over .500 at 23-22. They've won three in a row and have handled the Marlins with ease, winning by a combined score of 25-5 in their series so far.
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The Twins have been rockin' and rollin' offensively. After scoring 20 against the ChiSox on Thursday, they've plated 11 and 6 in two wins against Milwaukee this weekend.

Yes, Morneau is having an MVP-caliber year so far (.343/.423/.645, 12 HR, 36 RBI), but in 21 games since returning from injury, Joe Mauer has been nearly perfect: .429/.516/..844, 9 HR, 28 RBI. Amazing for a catcher.
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The Cubs are continuing their on-again/off-again season. They're kind of the forgotten team this weekend, as they're participating in the one intraleague series of the weekend. Maybe no one's noticing, but they've lost the first two games to the Padres (who've now won seven in a row, amazingly enough) and have now lost five in a row.
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Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.

2009-05-23T09:12:00.000-04:00

Saturday Morning Snapshot
(Held Hostage by A.J. Burnett Edition)

In the northeastern part of the U.S., you can't have a better baseball weekend than a combo that brings together the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox & Mets. Throw in the fact they're all over .500, and all to varying degrees playoff contenders and you have potential for a great three days in New York & Boston.

The night, however, proved to be a bit anticlimactic. In New York, the Phillies dusted off the Yankees in a tidy two hours and thirty-three minutes. The Yanks looked like a team that had burned the candle as far as it would go. Their winning streak halted before it could reach 10, something they haven't done since 2005. From the first pitch of the game on which Jimmy Rollins hit a home run to the 5-0 lead Philly built up before New York even put a run on the board, the outcome of this one felt inevitable throughout.

While Brett Myers wasn't dominant in any sense, but he was steady and the happy beneficiary of a nice, early cushion, good defense and some quick Yankee ABs. His final line: 8/8/3/3/0/5

A.J. Burnett on the other hand is starting to tread into the dangerous area of becoming a liability.

Of the three big free agent signings this is the one I was the most lukewarm on (and worse than that, truth be told), a sentiment I think shared by most Yankee fans. And when Burnett's most notable contribution to the season so far is tossing a couple of pies into his teammates' faces, well . . . there's just not a lot there.

Burnett hasn't won a game now since April 14. That's 5 1/2 weeks ago. He hasn't had an ERA under five since taking the mound at Fenway Park on April 25. He's second in the American League in home runs allowed, tied with Scott Baker at 10. The league leader is Jeremy Guthrie with 11. He's tied for third in walks allowed with 27.

From a fan's perspective, he's a frustrating guy to watch pitch. He has a mid-90s fastball, which sometimes seems to just crackle out of his hand, and he's typically able to maintain his velocity deep into games. He has an absolutey killer slider, which he used to bury Chase Utley a couple times last night. But these top-of-the-line tools just come & go . . . and I don't mean just game-to-game or inning-to-inning I mean batter-to-batter. There is no sense of continuity for Burnett, no such thing as "being on a roll" within a game. His powers seem to appear and reappear for no apparent reasons.

Case in point: In the same inning (top of the 5th) that he struck out Utley on a nasty pitch to start the frame, he gave up one of the longest home runs to date at The New Launching Pad to Jayson Werth three batters later. And this kind of thing happens all the time with Burnett.

I wrote the other day referencing the predilection of the saber-set to favor innings eaters with lesser numbers than guys who have better numbers with fewer innings pitched. And again, I don't know what the breaking point is for this philosophy. Is it better to have a guy who throws 5.2 innings every time out with a 3.00 ERA or a guy who goes that extra inning or inning-and-a-half and allows a 1/2 run more on average?

Burnett is an interesting case for this approach, because one thing he does do is throw his share of innings. He's thrown 58 now, good for 11th in the A.L. The only other starter in front of him likewise with only two victories is Cliff Lee, but that's more of a case of bad luck (2.90 ERA) than bad pitching. In fact, of the top 16 in terms of innings pitched, Burnett has by far the worst ERA:

Top 11 - Innings Pitched - AL
(through May 22)
2.52 - 75 IP - Halladay
3.12 - 66.1 - Millwood
0.82 - 66.0 - Greinke
3.43 - 63.0 - Sabathia
2.90 - 62.0 - Lee
3.41 - 60.2 - Garza
2.52 - 60.2 - Weaver
3.43 - 60.1 - Shields
2.55 - 60.0 - Jackson
3.17 - 59.2 - Saunders
5.28 - 58.0 - Burnett

You have to drop to 17th/18th/19th to find others (Guthrie, Carmona and Lester respectively) to find others that fit this high innings/poor results profile.

From a glass half-full perspective, you know what you're getting from Burnett nearly every time out. A guy whose going to pitch 6 innings, give or take a couple outs, and give up somewhere between three and five runs. With an offense like the Yankees, you'd think there would be more days in which they'd be able to compensate for this type of mediocrity and give him some W's for his record. But it just hasn't happened. At least not yet anyway.

There are a lot of things to point to as to why the Yankees became a bad post-season team after 2003. But the most glaring deficiency was their starting pitching in general, but more specifically having to rely on poor pitchers or broken-down pitchers in decisive games: the Randy Johnson/Jaret Wright disasters in games 3 and 4 vs. Detroit; Roger Clemens, game 3 vs. Cleveland; a Shawn Chacon in game 4 vs. Anaheim in '05, although admittedly he pitched well that night.

If the Yankees happen to get to the post-season, is A.J. Burnett a continuation of this theme? Am I going to feel good about giving the ball to this guy in a Game 3/Game 4 season-on-the-line type situation? There's hope. Hope that he has one of those scattered nights when he's absolutely untouchable. But hope is an entirely different animal than confidence.

2009-05-21T19:02:00.004-04:00

Fables of the Reconstruction of the Fables of the . . .

My kind of day. First pitch in the majors was thrown just after 12:30 this afternoon. The last will be thrown sometime after midnight. "So I can sigh eternally . . ."

Several games are already in the books including an excellent contest between the Tigers and Rangers. Down 3-1 in the 8th, the Rangers staged a rally off starter Edwin Jackson to tie it with two outs. The Tigers promptly took the lead in the bottom of the 8th off a valiant-but-tiring Kevin Millwood. Both starters put in a hard day's work, actually. Edwin Jackson tallied 132 pitches, which I imagine is one of the highest pitch totals in the majors so far this year. And Millwood wasn't far behind at 121.

The excitement lasted until the very last outs. With the tying run on 3rd and one out in the 9th, Rodney got a double-play ball off the bat of Michael Young to end the game. Final score: Tigers 4, Rangers 3

However, before focusing in on some of the action tonight, I want to tie up a few loose ends from my blogging last night.

1. The pitching match-up in L.A. proved to be far less an embarrassment than "Weaver/Hernandez" on the marquee would suggest. Weaver was respectable in a short outing: 5/4/1/1/2/1. The bigger story is that Livan Hernandez spun a gem: 7/7/1/1/1/2. Don't know if this was a case of a blind squirrel finding a nut, or an indictment on the current composition of the Dodgers' line-up.

In any case, neither starter factored in the decision. The Dodgers nicked up J.J. Putz for a run in the bottom of the 8th, and Jonathan Broxton pitched the 9th to preserve the 2-1 victory.

If I'm just reading the tea leaves, this is not a good time for the Mets to be heading into Fenway Park. To start 3-0 on the West Coast and then limp back east dropping the the entire back-end of the trip is unacceptable.

The Metropolitans have the pitching advantage on Friday night, as they'll send Santana to the hill against Daisuke, in his return from the DL. After that? It's Pelfrey/Beckett and Redding/Wakefield. This has a Boston 2-1 series win written all over it. At the minimum.

2. Jose Reyes was in the starting line-up last night, as I noted. But his return was short-lived. From mlbtraderumors.com:

But what the Mets may really need is a shortstop. Jose Reyes left Wednesday night's game against the Dodgers with what looked to be an aggravation of the calf injury that kept him out for five games. With backup Alex Cora out indefinitely with a thumb injury, the Mets are now left with a pair of shortstops: Ramon Martinez, who had two errors in his start on Monday night, and Fernando Tatis, who is a "break glass in case of emergency" kind of shortstop.

Even if Reyes returns quickly, the Mets need a credible backup. In house, the Mets have last season's backup middle infielder Argenis Reyes at shortstop, a decent glove who simply cannot hit. Jose Coranado is struggling so much with the bat, a .141 average at Triple-A, that he is an unlikely recall.

As previously reported, the Indians are fielding offers for Mark DeRosa. But DeRosa hasn't played more than 20 games at shortstop in a season since 2001-and over his last three seasons, he played a total of nine games there.

The Mets are going through one of those skids when things appear to be falling apart at the seams. Not much unlike what the Yankees went through in that stretch in which they lost 4 in a row to Boston & Tampa. However, the Mets aren't as good as the Yankees and I don't know how much water they can afford to carry. Without the enigmatic Reyes, they're left with two bona-fide stars in their everyday line-up in Wright & Beltran. The rest of the starting nine? Er . . . I mean eight. A collection of has-beens (Sheffield), guys trying a new position (Murphy) and a mish-mosh of guys who don't seem to be a perfect fit anywhere (Tatis, Church, Pagan, Reed).

If they lose that Friday night game, watch out. A sweep is a-watin'.

3. Kerry Wood did an amazing balancing act in the 9th last night in Kansas City. He took the mound to preserve a 6-5 lead, and pain-stakingly walked the bases loaded, getting one out in the midst of the mayhem. The fact that the Royals would tie the game felt inevitable. It was just a question of whether they were going to end the game right there.

And one pitch - one pitch - changed the game.

On the first offering to Mark Teahen, Wood threw an inside, nasty, hard breaking ball that Teahen swung at awkwardly. With the first pitch strike to his credit, Wood proceeded to throw strike/foul/strike (2 outs) and strike/strike/foul/ball/ball/strike against David DeJesus to end the game.

Talk about being unruffled in the face of the house burning down.

Back to today.

Rob Neyer had an interesting post referencing an article by Allen Barra in the Wall Street Journal today. Barra posits that Johan Santana is the best pitcher in baseball and should already have a third Cy Young to his credit; he actually uses a Neyer as a source to support his view.

What interested me the most was this little tidbit in Neyer's post:

Is he the best pitcher in the game today? Gee, I don't know. When you consider the difference between the leagues, I suspect that the argument comes down to three pitchers: Santana, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay. Well, and Lincecum, and maybe Chad Billingsley, too.

I'm very surprised to see C.C. Sabathia on a list with Santana and Halladay . . . and Lincecum for that matter. He's good (very good lately), but I just don't see him as dominant in the way I look at Johan or Doc. However, I will say the guy eats innings (among many other things) and the saber-guys put a huge emphasis on inning-eaters. For example, preferring Pitcher B who goes 7+ innings per start with an ERA of 3.75, as opposed to Pitcher A who goes 6 innings per start with a 3.00 ERA. My math might be off there, as I don't know what the exact differentiation point is. That's just intended to be a general example, but it's the main reason why I think a guy like Neyer would be so high on Sabathia.

And a couple of posters on the blog made a good point: if you're going to include Billingsley on that list, where the heck is Zack Greinke? And if you post the question this way: "If you had to pick one pitcher to start one game to win a championship, who would it be?" Well then, the answer has to be Josh Beckett, and doesn't that warrant him being on any list of the "best pitchers in baseball?"

I'm glad to see I'm not the only Yankee fan who tends to have a pessimistic bent. Goldman's headline on his blog from yesterday: "Pitching, bullpen and depth are still problems"

Now, since I wrote those words, the Yankees have tacked on another two wins to make it seven straight victories, and those doubts can be eased a bit. And yet, yet, yet, the walks by the pitching staff, the bullpen, the lack of depth are all problems that the team will have to overcome in more than seven games, but over the rest of the season.

Pointing this out isn't negativity, it isn't pessimism, it's your humble old commentator trying to do more than cast runes and read chicken entrails. I'm all for feeling good and going with the flow and enjoying it while it lasts, but I don't like being taken by surprise, particularly when it's my job not to be taken by surprise. As such, my method has to be to take theories like, "The Yankees have won seven in a row, so it's a straight line from here to the next championship" and test them looking for strengths and weaknesses. I figure out what I can, then report back to you so you can test your judgment against mine.

In Time magazine's 100 Most Influential People issue, Bill James in writing about Nate Silver made the point of saying how refreshing it was to have logical, coherent thinking & writing in vogue. I'll second that, because it's given a great platform and increasing popularity for writers like Neyer and Goldman (and the guys at BP and David Pinto, et. al.). Not to mention bringing more knowledge and, by extension, accountability (hopefully) to other fields like politics and policy. I find things like this at least hopeful, if not downright exciting. And baseball in particular allows you to crack it open like a nut, see what's inside, decide what pieces are good for consumption and which ones can be tossed away.

Alas, here's where Goldman & I part ways in terms of reacting to wins & losses. From the same post as above:

Speaking of which, "4everbronx" says, "Whew, it's a good thing they didn't lose those games...What would your reaction have been?"

Almost the same. One-run games are, on the cosmic level, coin flips. This seems especially true when a team's bullpen is as questionable as the Yankees' pen has been to this point. If we were talking about a hypothetical pen with Bruce Sutter handing off to Rollie Fingers handing off to Dennis Eckersley (or maybe even Jeff Nelson to Mike Stanton to Mariano Rivera), I would be more accepting of these games as indicators of a repeatable skill on the part of the club. Perhaps now that Brian Bruney is back they will be. For the most part, though, when you look over the history of the game, one-run decisions aren't something you can extrapolate from.

My reaction to the Yankees winning five, six, seven in a row, whatever is FAR different than if they lose a half-dozen games in a row. It's anything but "almost the same." And I don't care if they've won every game by forfeit, the opposing team decided to hit their pitcher every night or if they've won by 1-run on 9th inning errors for a week. A win is a win is a win is a win.

A perfect weather day, and the Yankees going for 9 in a row. There's been worse days in 2009.

7:50 p.m. correction: I goofed on the example in the paragraph about best pitchers in baseball. Changed text to: For example, preferring Pitcher B who goes 7+ innings per start with an ERA of 3.75, as opposed to Pitcher A who goes 6 innings per start with a 3.00 ERA. I previously wrote the exact opposite.

2009-05-20T23:12:00.004-04:00

Winning Ways
(The Continuation)

The Yankees have done it to the Orioles again in the late stages of a close game. One night after plating seven in the bottom of the 8th to blow open a 2-1 contest, they've pushed across five in the same frame and have turned a two-run game into a 10-3 lead.

Make it 11-3.

New York will push their record to 23-17, and extend their win streak to eight games. It's hard to believe the team that I legitimately thought was teetering on the brink after the loss to Hallady on May 12 hasn't loss since.

In other A.L. East news, Boston continues to right its ship at home vs. Toronto. Not they had been pushed too far off-course, but a 2-4 West Cost trip is enough to panic the denizens of New England.

And why in the world is Mariano Rivera still in a 10-3 game? And of course he gives up a home run.

Game over.

Sure, Rivera only threw 14 pitches in 1.3 so I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest he's available for tomorrow. And this won't prevent him from being able to throw for a third consecutive day on Friday if the opportunity arose. But why take that chance? To pad a statistic that no one (outside of players & agents) take that seriously anyway? I know I'm quibbling, but so be it.

The biggest news of the night: he finally hit one. Yes, David Ortiz hit his first home run of 2009. It occurred in the 5th inning at Fenway off left-hander Brett Cecil of the Jays. I just watched the highlight. The quintessential monkey being taken off a back.

I'm not reading too much in the Sox grabbing the first two games of this series with Toronto. However, I don't think it should go unnoticed that the Blue Jays are now 1-4 vs. New York & Boston. And despite their excellent start, they're now even with the Sox in the loss column and the Yanks are only one behind. The Jays have shown some resourcefulness already this year, but when the two super powers in the division are firing on all cylinders, they're going to leave teams like Toronto in the dust.

Starting to flip around to watch the end of the early slate of games. Tampa's down 7-6 in the 9th, on the verge of losing another game to a bad Oakland team at home. A loss here would drop them to 20-22, and while they've been hanging in there, their division foes' play of late is putting early pressure on them to step it up.

I haven't written too much during the Yanks' current hot streak. Outside of being pleased with the overall results (those three consecutive walk-off wins were special just terms of being a rarity; they hadn't done that since '72), I'm glad to see Teixeira starting to settle in offensively, and to see A-Rod make such a definitive & immediate impact.

Jose Reyes is back in the line-up for the Mets tonight. Now that's a strange team. They looked like they were set-up for a huge road trip after taking the first three games in San Francisco. Since then they've lost three in a row, none worse than the much publicized debacle on Monday night in Los Angeles. Rob Neyer writing after the game that saw Ryan Church miss 3rd base negating what would've been the go-ahead run in the top of the 11th and then the errors that doomed them in the bottom of the inning:

I don't know how many Mets fans were still up when the game ended. I was, though, and yeah, I can't say it was disheartening because my heart doesn't care about the Mets, but man was it ever ugly. I don't know that I've seen a good team make more obvious mistakes in the late stages of a close game.

You know what's worse, though? When Tim Redding is your fifth starter. Because you know what that means, don't you? It means that Livan Hernandez is your fourth starter. I happened to be at the ballpark in San Francisco last Friday night, and I just sat there in the first inning, dumbfounded, as Hernandez gave up hit after hit after hit. I can't say that I exactly felt sorry for Hernandez -- after all, nobody forced him to take the Mets' money this spring -- but I couldn't quite help myself.

More, though, I felt sorry for Mets fans who have to put up with a pitcher like Livan Hernandez every five days (particularly if he really is the club's fourth starter, and really will pitch every five days). Frankly, there's simply no excuse for a team with a new ballpark and a $150 million payroll to trot Hernandez out there regularly, and wind up with Jeremy Reed at first base in a close game, and Angel Pagan in left field at the same moment, and ... well, you get the idea. I can't feel sorry for the Mets, and I can't feel too sorry for their fans. Not with that payroll. As a guy who just likes to watch good baseball, though, I find this odd collection of talent just a little bit offensive.

Ol' Livan is on the mound tonight in L.A. opposite Jeff Weaver, in a truly hideous pitching match-up.

With two outs and the tying run on 1st in the 9th, Oakland centerfielder Ryan Sweeney just made a spectacular diving catch in the gap in left-center to rob B.J. Upton of a certain extra base hit that would've tied the game. Final: 7-6 Oakland.

With the Mets game on the tube, I put on this record for some reason . . .
I've been on a huge Robert Pollard kick of late, specifically the latest Boston Spaceships CD, so everything else is paling in comparison. However, CCR sounds a bit like background music tonight; haven't listened to it in ages and it's not making much of an impact. As if getting any value out of Creedence necessitates a stronger beverage than a half-decaf Hazelnut coffee. You know what I'm saying?

The Royals and Indians are tied 4-4 in the 7th in Kansas City. The Royals will have to win to keep pace with the Tigers, winners of five in a row now, who beat Texas 5-3. The Tigers remind me of the Mets a bit in the sense that just when you're ready to anoint them as the team to beat in their respective divisions, something happens to make me reassess my opinions of them. In the Mets' case their inability to play consistent, good baseball. In the Tigers', getting swept by Minnesota last week for example.

I think the Tigers are going to win the Central when all is said & done, but I don't see any reason why at least Minny and K.C. can't stick with them all season long. All season I've kept looking for reasons to make the Mets the favorite in the East . . . and nothing sticks. It's Philly -- now, tomorrow and for the foreseeable future.

Daniel Murphy is playing first base tonight for the Mets, and got anything but a ringing endorsement from his manager during a radio interview this afternoon. To paraphrase Manuel, "I have no idea how he's going to play over there." He just made a routine, unassisted play at the bag. Dodgers are already threatening to score in the bottom of the 1st . . . and do so with a sacrifice fly.

I know I wrote a lot about the Celtics-Bulls series in this space earlier this month. And that's fine; that was one of the great playoff series in the history of the league. But how out of the NBA loop am I? I haven't turned on, not even for a fraction of a second, either Game 1s in the conference finals. I can't imagine doing that for an LCS or any other sports equivalent. I don't think it's a case if having Celtics Hangover, either. The match-ups are just . . . bleh. I'll tune for the Kobe/LeBron show in the Finals, but even that it's more of a shrug-of-the-shoulders "sure," than a true anticipation.

Indians just took a lead in the 8th in K.C.

I've never, ever thought this before, but John Fogarty's vocal in "Long as I Can See the Light" bears a passing resemblance to one W. Axl Rose. And now time for the interminable "I Heard it Through the Grapevine."

Livan Hernandez: The King of Hittable Pitches

Remember when Scott Kazmir started off the season 2-0 by beating the Red Sox and Yankees? He looked to be on the verge of a huge season. 12.2 innings of work 10 Ks and only 3 walks.

Since then, these are his BB:K numbers per start, including tonight:

6:5
3:2
4:4
2:7
3:2
4:2
4:3

In one start since April 18 has he whiffed more batters than free passes given up. Amazing. And what started out as a potential breakthrough season is winding up in the toilet.

After a 4.1/8/7/7/4/3 line against the punchless A's tonight, Kazmir's ERA stands at 7.69 for the season. I haven't been following his path closely enough to now exactly how this is happening, but it's clear things are falling apart right now for the left-hander.

K.C. is hanging in there, cutting the Cleveland lead to 6-5 in the 8th with the tying run at first with one out.

I'll stick with this game to the end and then call it a night.

Mets on the board thanks to a ringing double down the right-field line by Beltran. 1-1.

Alright, the Royals have 1st & 2nd, two outs here in the 8th. Crisp up against Betancourt.

K.C. is turning into my "niche" team of the season: the team I want to see do well outside of the Yanks.

Strikeout swinging to end the inning.

Onto the 9th and the last baseball action of the night.

Hopefully the holiday weekend will afford me a chance to write a little about the two big series taking place in the East: Mets-Red Sox and Phillies-Yankees.

2009-05-16T10:51:00.002-04:00

Saturday Morning Snapshot
(West Coast Review Edition)

I dozed in the early part of the evening, which gave me the opportunity to take in some of the West Coast action last night with eyes wide open.

The three games in rotation: Mets-Giants, Sox-Mariners and Royals-Orioles. The latter of course was scheduled for an 8:10 EST start in Kansas City, but was delayed by rain and didn't get underway until it was closing in on 11 p.m. on the East Coast.

I had a chance to check in on three of the game's top young hurler's: KC's Zack Greinke; Boston's Jon Lester; and San Francisco's Tim Lincecum.

While Greinke shined, the other two pitchers, both benefiting from early leads, couldn't make their good fortune stand up.

Lincecum, in particular, labored. He threw 114 pitches in 6+ innings of work, leaving with a 6-3 lead and a mess for his relievers to clean up: 2 on, no outs in the 7th. He wasn't picked up, as the Mets went on to score 3 runs in the inning to tie the game at six. The key blow coming off the bat of David Wright, who had another great night at AT&T (3-5, 4 RBI, 1 R and a key hit in the decisive 9th-inning rally).

Oddly both managers were ejected in the game, as Bruce Bochy and Jerry Manuel got the boot before play began in the top of the 8th and bottom of the 8th respectively.

Ultimately, the Mets got to San Fran's closer Brian Wilson for the second night in a row in a tie game. From MLB.com's game report:

This time, New York's fateful ninth began with Gary Sheffield's leadoff single. David Wright, whose bases-loaded double in the seventh inning forged the existing tie, also singled.

Ryan Church laid down a bunt that Wilson pounced on between the pitcher's mound and the third-base line. Wilson had an easy force play on Sheffield, but his peg to Pablo Sandoval only grazed the third baseman's glove and flew into left field. Sheffield scored, and so did Wright as the next batter, Omir Santos, lifted a sacrifice fly.

The Mets moved to 20-15, and remained two games up on the Phillies, who won 10-6 in extra innings vs. the Nationals, and Braves who beat Arizona 4-3.

This afternoon's pitching match-up is getting a lot of attention, although the match-up is more about the allure of history and marquee names than being competitively close. Randy Johnson, currently sporting a 5.89 ERA on the season, is going for win #299 and takes the hill against the NL's best: Johan Santana.

Santana's adjusted ERA of 566 leads the National League by a wide margin. The next four are Cueto (241); Rodriguez (230); Haren (227); and Jurrjens (213). He also leads the league in standard ERA (0.78) and is 2nd in WHIP, H/9 and K/9. Of course, all of those flashy numbers has translated into "only" a 4-2 record because of his poor run support.

I think today will be Santana's day to add to his win total. The Mets are really swinging the bats well right now, and I have to believe San Francisco is reeling after these two tough losses in a row. Also throw in the fact that their closer is presumably unavailable today, which might not be the worst thing considering the week he's having.
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The Royals-O's game was the last game being played in major league baseball last night/this morning. Starting at 10:40 p.m. EST, it didn't end until 1:26 a.m. The Royals ended up winning 8-1.

Zack Greinke has gotten so much attention to this point in the season that he basically has to fire a two-hit shutout to generate any new excitement. And although he wasn't lights out, he had an easy ride to his 7th win of the season. By the 4th inning, he had been staked to a 4-1 lead and cruised from that point for a final line of 7/6/1/1/2/6. His ERA actually jumped from 0.51 to 0.60. Oh, the horror.

The buzz being created right now by this guy in Kansas City is palpable. It looked close to a full house in spite of the long delay, and the KC broadcast is already running polls asking viewers to text in how many games Greinke is going to win this year. Over 40% said 24+.

At one point in the game, I didn't catch exactly why, the vendors at Kauffman Stadium were carrying those large, aluminum baking pans filled with hot dogs wrapped in foil, tossing them out into the crowd left & right. It didn't look like every single person was getting one, but essentially there were a ton of folks getting grub for free. Cool promotion or idea, whatever it was and something you'd never see in a certain in a ballpark. (Note: the MLB.com Friday night wrap-up included this little tidbit: Hot dogs here, get 'em while they're ... free? Finally, as if putting Greinke on the mound wasn't enough to endear them to the paying customers, Royals vendors broke out the free hot dogs to those who waited out the five-hour weather delay.)
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I was shocked that Jon Lester couldn't close the deal after carrying a 4-0 lead into the 5th inning. Maybe the Boston offense should've done more vs. a 30-year-old rookie with an ERA hovering close to 8.00. However, that doesn't excuse the Boston lefty for lasting only 5 2/3 and relinquishing the lead in the process.

Maybe he's simply one start away from throwing an 8-inning gem, but I'm starting to wonder about Lester a bit. He was despondent in the dugout after being removed from the game. Eyes closed, cap pushed back, head in his hands.

His season line now stands at 2-4, 6.51 ERA, 47/60/34/34/16/54 in eight starts.

I know his playing time has been limited, but after three Ks last night and an 0-4 overall, Rocco Baldelli's line stands at .250/.276/.357

I haven't heard much about his chronic health condition of late, but it's amazing to see what at one point looked to be a sure-fire excellent major league career just disintegrating.

The Big Papi dilemma is now front and center after the disaster on Thursday, when he stranded a week's worth of runners and went 0-7. Everyone's chiming in with ideas for the next course of action, and Terry Francona broke the stalemate before Friday night's game. And this is how the skipper explained his decision to give Ortiz the night off in Seattle. From the Globe's blog:

"Sometimes stepping back will help," Francona said. "Maybe I was too late in doing this. I hope not. I just think he needs a deep breath. Even when David's struggling, I love his presence in the lineup. But I think that also, if there's a time to step back and take a deep breath, it will help us in the long run. Balancing that, when to do it, is, I just think today was an obvious one after talking to him."

Francona actually intimated that this hiatus might go on for a couple of days. The real problem isn't right now. The real problem comes when he goes back in the line-up and still has no pop in his bat. What the heck happens then?

While his pre-season PECOTA projection (.269/.375./.504 with 27 HR and 94 RBI) is the stuff of pure fantasy now, there has to be something left in the tank, doesn't there? The last line of his Baseball Prospectus write-up is looking more ominous by the day: "As Ortiz goes, so go the Red Sox, so they can only hope he's correct [about being healthy]."
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From what I saw, I thought the plate umpires were terrible last night. The strike call that prompted Johnny Damon to blow a gasket was atrocious. At least one pitch, if not two, in the A-Rod at-bat in the 9th was way inside. David Wright had two calls go against him that were clearly low in his AB in the 9th. And even in the Seattle-Boston game there was a bad call in the J.D. Drew AB in the 9th, after which he eventually singled.

Just mentioning it, since I rarely complain about the umpires or think they're having a disproportionate affect on the game. However, last night the mistakes were obvious and occurring in really important at-bats. In the case of A-Rod, Wright and Drew they all ended up reaching base anyway.

I'll try and be back with more later, as I think both the Yankees' win last night and Damon's 10-game extra-base hit streak deserves at least a mention.

2009-05-14T23:04:00.004-04:00

Coast to Coast
updated 5/15/09, 7:00 a.m.

It wasn't until about 7:40 p.m. EST that I realized the Sox and Angles were still going at it, 4+ hours after their first pitch in Anaheim. By that time the game was in the bottom of the 12th.

I arrived just in time to see the Angles paste together their winning rally. I'm not going to make much of Boston dropping two of three in Anaheim this week. I will say that the Sox are probably in the midst of their toughest stretch of the season. Starting tomorrow night, they have three in Seattle (their last West Coast games of the season, believe it or not) before an off-day on Monday. Then:

3 vs. Toronto at home
3 vs. Mets at home
4 at Minnesota
3 at Toronto
3 at Detroit

They get the Rangers at home after that, and despite Texas' nice start and current 1st place standing, I refuse to believe the Rangers will be an overly tough match-up for the Sox at Fenway.

There's some negativity swirling around the Fens right now despite their 2nd place standing and 21-14 record. The injury bug has continued to nip at their heels. Lester and Beckett really haven't gotten going yet. And then there's the saga of Big Papi. If you told me a year ago that Manny would be gone and on May 14 Big Papi would be carrying a batting line of .208, a .618 OPS and a big, fat zero in the home run column, I would've thought that the window of opportunity had opened. Yet they're still at the top of the league in terms of offense, and their pitching overall has been good enough (especially the bullpen) for them to weather inconsistent performances by some of their horses.

This is a time to keep an eye on them though. They have a slew of games coming up against very good offensive teams. Their pitching and defense isn't in a great place right now; they're going to need to keep up the pace and score some runs. I'm not doubting their ability to do that, but at what point does the Ortiz story turn from a quirky novelty into something more dubious, i.e. a real problem that isn't going to right itself? And what do the Sox do then?

The Sox are still the best team in the sport in my estimation. But even they can only weather their DH, and designated spiritual guru, hitting .200 with no pop in his bat, for an extended period of time.
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My sports attention tonight was divided between the Celtics trying to close out Orlando in Game 6 of their series and C.C. Sabathia trying to back-up his shutout on Friday and lead the Yankees to a series win in Toronto.

Mission accomplished for the Magic, as we got a Game 7 Sunday night in Boston. Should be more confident about a Celtics victory than I am, but Ray Allen is really showing his age in this series, his beautiful three at the end of Game 5 notwithstanding. And it seems as if Pierce's legs will only allow him spurts of brilliance, a three-basket-run here, a couple quick threes there. The team is on fumes now, and I've been saying that since the middle of the Chicago series. At the same time, I'm not convinced Orlando has it in them to go up to Boston and win in a raucous building on a late Sunday night. I'll go with another Celtics Game 7 victory at home to add to the books, setting up a quiet dismantling in the next round which will be akin to the passive exchange of the green jacket at Augusta.
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C.C. Sabathia, while not as impressive from a "stuff" standpoint as he was on Friday night in Baltimore, gutted out eight innings in Toronto to pick up his third win of the season. Overall he allowed five hits, two runs (both earned), an unsightly four walks and five strikeouts. Spotted a 1-0 lead going into the fourth inning, he gave up a single run in that frame and in the fifth. He pitched out of a couple of jams, and in particular was helped by a nice throw by Brett Gardner in the 5th that gunned down Rod Barajas at the plate that would've made it 3-1 Jays.

It's been a nice couple of days for some of the baby Bombers. Gardner had a homer and triple last night and made that fine defensive play tonight. Let's be honest: Francisco Cervelli with his .190 average at Trenton was a punch-line when he was called up after the Molina injury. Now? He's 6-19, has caught two of Sabathia's three best starts of the season, and has provided a bit of unexpected spunk and grit from behind the dish. There's nothing to suggest that at the minimum this guy can't be a back-up at the major league level.

The Yankees get the Twins for four in New York this weekend. Minnesota, now a game over .500, is flying high after finishing off a sweep of the Tigers this afternoon with a great comeback. Down 5-0 to a flame-throwing Justin Verlander (13 Ks in 6.1 IP), the Twins were able to chase the Detroit ace and planted six runs in the 7th, which would hold up.

It's been assumed that this Twins/Orioles combo coming up at the Stadium will result in some home cooking for the Yanks and a chance to get a few games over .500. But I can't take Minnesota for granted in any way shape or form, especially when they're playing well.
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Two 18-15 teams are battling it out on the coast tonight, as the Mets and Giants start a four-gamer at AT&T Park. San Francisco qualifies as a surprise in the early going; they have one of the better home records in the game at 12-5. Their most common line-up used is a quick example of just how pedestrian their regular nine is:

1. Winn
2. Renteria
3. Lewis
4. Molina
5. Sandoval
6. Ishikawa
7. Rowand
8. Burriss
9. Pitcher

Yes, Bengie Molina is batting clean-up. He of the career .310 OBP. To his credit though, he's off to a nice start in the slugging department: 8 HR/28 RBI/.555 SLG

It's evident that the strength of this team is on pitching/defense. They're second in the NL in R/G allowed at 4.27, but some of their peripherals have me wondering if that number is going to start climbing.

They're middle of the pack in the N.L. in terms of Defensive Efficiency, and are "only" T-5th with Pittsburgh in ERA. They're middle of the pack in terms of WHIP and home runs and walks allowed. The one thing they are good at is making batters miss. Their 8.1 K/9 is 2nd in the league only to the Cubbies.

It will be interesting to see if the Mets can sustain their recent run of good fortune. Yesterday afternoon's ugly loss to the Braves aside, New York is 8-2 in their last 10 and have been one of the best offensive teams in the league in May so far:

.380 OBP (1st)
.474 SLG (2nd)
.297 BA (4th)

However, their 69 runs, good for 7th in the league for May, is a little lighter than you'd think based on the three main rate stats. Overall they're hitting .285 RISP (3rd in the NL after St. Louis and L.A.), so I'm doubtful that's been an issue over the last two weeks. Although I have to admit that I'm not sure how to filter out two splits simultaneously. For example, finding batting average with RISP in the month of May. Anyone?

The Mets have also been one of the better pitching staffs in the league as well, currently 2nd in the N.L. in ERA (3.12) since May 1.

As I'm getting ready for shut down, Mets currently down 2-1 heading into the top of the 3rd. Maine had a very rocky first inning and has already issued three walks. Reyes is out of the line-up tonight with a stiff calf.

Update, 7:00 a.m.: The Mets opened up their current 10-road trip, which will also include stops in two of the toughest parks in the majors (Dodger Stadium & Fenway Park), with a 7-4 win. After the Giants tied the score in the 8th, New York pushed across three runs in the top of the 9th off San Fran closer Brian Wilson

Notable notes from the Adam Rubin's wrap in the Daily News: David Wright had a huge night, 3-3, two BBs and a career-high four steals. He also drove in the go-ahead run in the 9th with a base hit. . . . Wright's steals accounted for more than half of the Mets' seven swipes on the night, which set a new team record. Remarkably, that was done without Jose Reyes in the line-up. . . . John Maine (6.2/7/2/2/4/4) threw 118 pitches, the most by a Mets' hurler this season so far and three short of his career high. . . . The Mets are now 9-2 in their last 11.

2009-05-13T13:28:00.000-04:00

Shades of 1989

A text message received last night:

Dear Mark Teixeira,

Someday you'll cross me.

-- The Mendoza Line

A moment of needed brevity in the face of an otherwise dreary & predictable loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Yes, it was another punchless night from the New York first baseman (two K's, two LOB), but more than putting the emphasis on one player in the road grays, this was a dismantling of the highest order by one Roy "Doc" Halladay.

After the Jeter pre-game injury and the Matsui in-game injury, the Yankees were left with this misfitted and motley collection by the middle of the game:

Gardner
Damon
Teixeira
Rodriguez
Swisher
Cano
Cabrera
Cash
Pena

Talk about bringing a gun full of blanks to a shoot-out. I'm not going to let A.J. Burnett off the hook for another mediocre performance, but if we're going to be fair: the Yankees had zero chance to win this game. Halladay came into the game 15-5 lifetime vs. New York with a 2.86 ERA. And last night he outdid himself. In his first complete game of the season (Do you realize he hasn't thrown less than 7 innings in a start this year?), Halladay didn't allow the over-matched Yankee bats room to breathe. 9/5/1/1/0/5. 103 pitches. Efficient. Easy. Dominant.

The Yankees' pulse is going to be checked every day now. With Jeter fighting an oblique and now Matsui warranting additional attention from the trainers, an already weakened line-up can't carry much more dead weight. They are now 6.5 games behind Toronto on the thirteenth of May. A split in the next two games is a must; a seven-game hole with the team reeling as it is would be a terrible sign.

As I watched the crowd at the Rogers Centre, which I'll forever reference as SkyDome, bask in the aftermath of a Halladay masterpiece, I was taken back to 1989 or thereabouts. My first memories of that joint. A loaded, balanced, pitching-rich Jays team beating a bad Yankees team like a drum. Nights of having to throw guys like Clay Parker against an unhittable Dave Steib.

It's a bad sign that over the last two seasons while watching this version of the Yankees, my memory has drifted back to the late 1980s on multiple occasions.

2009-05-09T09:18:00.012-04:00

Saturday Afternoon Snapshot

I admit it. I thought the home run last night was an amazing home run. It was a surreal moment. The team has been a dead carcass for a week, and no better than mediocre for the first 28 games of the season overall. For the first time in what feels like ages, the Yankees now have a bit of energy and a bit of a buzz. One swing of the bat, backed by a brilliant, efficient outing by C.C. Sabathia, and it feels like maybe, just maybe, this group can coalesce into a cohesive unit. We'll see. One swing of the bat; it said "We're not dead yet."

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I trust A-Rod maintaining his new media persona about as much as I trust Robinson Cano to maintain a high OBP. I think it's great he's going all Teddy Roosevelt on us, but there's a still a sense that the next drama or scandel is always looming around the corner. What I found more interesting from the post-game comments than the "I'll let my play do the talking" bit was the admission to just what effect the hip had on him last year. From John Harper's column this morning:

"Anything above 92 (mph), I felt like I didn't have a prayer on," he said. "I didn't know what it was. I just felt the bat speed wasn't there."

Anything above 92? Geez, talk about not much margin for error. If you look at his splits from last season (ESPN), there's a slight difference in the Big 3 rate stats pre- vs. post-All Star. However, if you look at August & September, there was a huge drop off in terms of production. If memory serves correct, Rodriguez hit into an astonishing and demoralizing 11 double plays in August. That seemingly all of them occurred after the 7th inning didn't help matters.

A-Rod 2008 Month-by-Month
April: .286/.343/.495
May: .293/.408/.610
June: .366/.455/.693
July: .337/.413/.621
Aug.: .243/.352/.495
Sept: .278/.383/.532

Pun intended, he didn't exactly limp home down the stretch of the season. However, that August was an ugly one. Another indication of his injury, besides the tailing off of his offensive production after July, could be his stolen base numbers. Through July he had attempted 16 steals and was successful 15 times. The rest of the way he was 3 for 5. Granted he wasn't on base as much, but that's a drop-off.

A-Rod not only has set himself up for a season of intense scrutiny, but a grinding routine just to stay on the field. With the torn labrum in his hip still in need of further surgery in the off-season, I wonder if he's playing on borrowed time, and how long his body will hold up. It's only May 9; there's a long way to go. The YES Network indicated that before & after each game he'll need to go through a rehab session in a pool, and I'm sure there's other various strength & conditioning exercises that will be required on daily basis.

The guy's been on my favorite team for five years now. He's had two MVP seasons, and is the greatest talent the Yankees have had since Mantle, if not before then. Just now entrenched with our poor opinions of this franchise, and lowered expectations for Rodriguez delivering in that nebulous "big spot," I find myself rooting for the guy. For the first time. The irony at this juncture in the theatrical arc that is Alex Rodriguez's life & career, is that just as his body is breaking down and his follies have been laid to bare is that point when his team needs him the most. When A-Rod arrived the vestiges of the last Yankee dynasty were still prevalent. Jeter at the tail end of his prime. Posada on the verge of his finest seasons. Mariano still being Mariano. And Uncle Joe still sipping his Bigelow Tea.

Now? Jeter is on that path, deliberate and pain-staking, where only age can take us, hitting .270 and noticeably a step slower. Posada is on the DL again, and the Rivera is battling age & injury as well. Uncle Joe is on a different coast, dealing with a whole new set of problems. It's a different time.

A-Rod came here with no room to breathe really, not in that egomaniacal straw-that-stirs-the-drink kind of way. It's his time now to be the centerpiece. And not in a look-at-me-sunbathing kind of way. It needs to be on the field. Now more than ever. A cruel twist of irony would be is if now, well past the age of 30, his body doesn't let him.

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I can't imagine Peter Abraham, whose blog is now a daily read, is very popular in the Yankee clubhouse. For a beat writer, he is brutally honest with the written word, at least in his blog space. So when I hear something of a positive insight, I'm more likely to pay attention. From his latest entry, which details an exchange between A.J. Burnett and Nick Swisher regarding the clubhouse music:

Teams that win have good chemistry. Teams that lose have bad chemistry. But I’m here to tell you, The Yankees have better chemistry than they’ve had in several years. These guys like each other and they’ll play hard for each other.

If this team can get healthy and stay healthy — and there is no guarantee of either — they’re going to be pretty good.

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I have very little juice for the Boston-Orlando series right now. I guess it's a letdown coming off the Chicago series, or maybe because the Yankees' season feels like it's on somewhat of a brink. In any case, the first three games have been background noise. With the Celtics clearly against the wall and on the road (and considering the no-baseball-interference 8:00 Sunday night start time), I'll be tuning into Game 4. Sox-Rays, the ESPN game in that time slot, will warrant some attention as well.

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I found it ironic that the last words written in this blog before I found out about Manny Ramirez were: I'm not a fan of the Dodgers at all, but I find it next-to-impossible to not pull for a team that has Joe Torre and Don Mattingly sitting on its bench.

And then all hell breaks loose in L.A. Coincidentally or not, the Dodgers have lost two in a row at home after starting 13-0 and breaking the modern day record on Wednesday night. I still think they're going to be fine as far as the division goes. Although the Giants topped them last night at Dodgers Stadium, San Francisco is still the only other team over .500 in the division and are 4.5 games back. They also happen to be the lowest scoring team in the majors. Their pitching has been great, but their expected won-loss is still two games under .500.

The two commentators who struck me the most in the post-suspension babble were two of my favorites. One a Yankee fan, the other a Red Sox fan.

Goldman (who's on writing roll right now):

As always, what is depressing about this development is not its actual impact but the dishonesty that comes with getting caught. Ramirez's statement on the matter said, "Recently I saw a physician for a personal health issue. He gave me a medication, not a steroid, which he thought was okay to give me. Unfortunately, the medication was banned under our drug policy. Under the policy that mistake is now my responsibility."

No, Manny, actually it's your doctor's responsibility too, and I fully expect that you will be suing him. Thing is, we know Manny won't be suing, because then this tissue-paper excuse would collapse. For that matter, he would also appeal the suspension, submit medical records as proof of his contention, and make every effort to stay on the field and clear his name. That's not what he's doing. Rather, he's meekly taking the rap.

Bill Simmons put together this excellent column in the wake of Manny's suspension. Set five years in the future, it depicts an afternoon spent at Fenway Park with his son and father. For a guy who can be funny as hell, it's quite a downer. But it's also one of the best things he's written in a long time, and prompted a quick email from me yesterday afternoon.

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Random Notes:

Carlos Beltran is having an amazing season to date. Some of his league rankings as of the morning of May 9:

.377 BA (1st)
.472 OBP (2nd)
.585 SLG (10th)
27.0 Runs Created (4th)

The Mets, who had as non-descript a month of April as possible, are now 15-13 and have two more lined up this weekend with the sinking Pirates, losers of six in a row.

The Marlins started out 11-1. Since then they're 5-13. The flame that sparked their early run burned out quickly. From Neyer's blog yesterday:

Anyway, do you realize how far Bonifacio has fallen? (I didn't, until I checked.)

As you might recall, in the Marlins' first game this season, Bonifacio hit a home run, collected three singles and stole three bases. He was, for a day, the toast of the National League. In his first seven games, he batted .485 and radio hosts were asking me if this guy was for real (you might easily imagine my answer).

Bonifacio's line since those first seven games: .165/.224/.176.

Bonifacio's season line: .250/.295/.306 -- practically dead even with his career line (which now encompasses 345 plate appearances in the majors).

And now Anibal Sanchez is headed to the DL.

Justin Verlander was awesome last night. 9/2/0/0/2/11. Sure he was saved by the best catch (in terms of timing & importance) of the season in the bottom of the 9th, but ESPN showed that his fastball was in the vicinity of 95-97 the entire night, and actually picked up steam as the game went on. If his last three starts are any indication (3-0, 23/11/1/1/5/31), he is poised to reclaim his mantle as one of the best pitchers in the American League.

Speaking of top AL hurlers, Zack Greinke goes for 7-0 tonight in Anaheim. In looking at his game log for the season, do you know what his worst start of the season has been? It was either April 13 vs. the Indians (5/6/0/0/2/9) or April 29 vs. Toronto (7/5/2/2/0/8). And not only are those not poor starts, but he was the winning pitcher in both games. He's thrown three complete games, and has been simply been dominant. .189 AVG against and a .0.84 WHIP.

2009-05-06T18:42:00.002-04:00

You'll Find Out When You Reach The Top You're On the Bottom

I know one Yankee fan in particular, and I'm sure he's representative of a larger voice, who's just plum frustrated and angry about the team's 0-5 showing against the Red Sox over the last two weeks. We're all frustrated. But there is a sentiment simmering that is akin to "Why can't the Yankees show some fight? Why are they taking this laying down, while Boston is yucking it up in the dugout and having a grand old time?"

Me? I'm just not feeling much anger, nor am I ready to get all fired up about whatever the Red Sox are doing in their dugout. Here is my bottom line: the Yankees are simply not a good team right now. They are 13-13, and are actually playing one game above their expected won-loss record. I could rattle off statistics, like the 29th ranked ERA, or the 16th ranked BA/RISP; they're actually sub-.200 vs. Boston in the latter category.

However, Pete Abraham summed it up more succinctly than that on his blog today:

The Yankees have 25 players on their roster and you can make a case that 11 of them (Berroa, Pena, Cervelli, Gardner, Robertson, Ramirez, Melancon, Veras, Albaladejo, Hughes and Aceves) may or may not belong in the big leagues at this point. That’s 44 percent of your team.

Think about that. The Yankees are trying to beat the Red Sox (and everyone else for that matter) with a roster that is a couple players shy of being 50 percent composed of unproven youngsters, tweeners and big league bottom-feeders. Now, Hughes is a legitimate major leaguer, but everyone else on that list? And these guys are being asked to fill important roles on a daily basis. And Jose Molina, now our everyday catcher for at least a month, sports, as Steve Goldman pointed out, one of the worst offensive profiles of the last 25 years.

I just want to repeat something I wrote this morning, because I see in the comments for that entry someone talking about Jose Molina as the awesomest backup of all-time or somesuch thing. Not so much. There's no arguing he's a good defender and very tough for opponents to run on, but he just doesn't reach base enough to play with any regularity. Reaching base is the basis of offense -- a team can't score runs if the hitters don't reach base. Molina's career OBP is .277. It is, no matter how you slice it, dice it, adjust it, the 11th-worst OBP of the last 25 years.

Remember Alvaro Espinoza and how little he hit? He reached base more often. Alfredo Griffin once took four walks in a full season of play. He reached base more often. Rey Ordonez's bat was the joke of the league when he played with the Mets. He reached base more often. You know how my YES colleague John Flaherty likes to make fun of his offensive abilities during many broadcasts? He reached base more often. If you reduce the population solely to catchers, Molina has the sixth-lowest OBP of the last 25 years.

I am always game for an Alvaro Espinoza reference. Good stuff.

I've never seen the Yankees scraping the bottom of the barrel to such an extent, and this early season floundering will not be easy to recover from.

Tampa comes in for two nights, starting tonight at 7:05. On paper, the Yanks have the starting pitching advantage in both games: Burnett/Sonnanstine and Pettitte/Niemann. Tampa is 4-2 in their last six, finding some equilibrium after a poor start.

As my aforementioned friend said, they need to turn something around and quick. Whether it's A-Rod's return, Teixeira returning to form, the bullpen getting stabilized . . . something. At this point, especially with loss of Posada now added to the mix, it just feels like there's too many holes to fill to be hopeful, let alone full of piss-and-vinegar.
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On the other coast, Joe Torre's Bigelow Tea is going down quite well. The Dodgers go for history tonight at Chavez Ravine. In modern day history no team has started a season 13-0 at home. Last night, behind Jeff Weaver of all people, L.A. ran its home record to 12-0, tying the 1911 Detroit Tigers.

Even beyond the home cooking, the Dodgers are squashing any chance of a division race in the N.L. West. This was something I first alluded to on April 18, and they're delivering on it. At 20-8 (X W-L of 19-9), they're 5.5 games up on the Giants and 8.5 up on both Arizona & Colorado, the two teams that figured to be their main competitors this year.

The Dodgers' home games to date:
0413 vs. San Francisco, 11-1
0415 vs. San Francisco, 5-4
0416 vs. San Francisco, 7-2
0417 vs. Colorado, 4-3
0418 vs. Colorado, 9-5
0419 vs. Colorado, 14-2
0430 vs. San Diego, 8-5
0501 vs. San Diego, 1-0
0502 vs. San Diego, 2-1
0503 vs. San Diego, 7-3
0504 vs. Arizona, 7-2
0505 vs. Arizona, 3-1

I'm not a fan of the Dodgers at all, but I find it next-to-impossible to not pull for a team that has Joe Torre and Don Mattingly sitting on its bench.

2009-05-04T21:48:00.002-04:00

Better Late Than Never

The dose of soggy mid-spring weather has put a pall over things, canceling baseball games left and right in the eastern part of the country and halting any momentum toward summer. Much has transpired over the past few days.

The Boston Celtics-Chicago Bulls series, of which I'd spent many a word on in this space, came to an anti-climactic end Saturday night. The weekend went by fast, to say the least, and after a sizable dose of yard work, I found myself dozing on the couch, on-and-off for a better part of the late Sunday afternoon. Although I watched a few innings of the Sox-Rays game, baseball was on the back burner.

The weather report was dreadful tonight for the Bronx, with a steady rain forecasted until after midnight. And although it looks as if they're playing in perpetual drizzle, the Sox and Yankees are at it again. They started close to 9:30 EST, guaranteeing that I'll be nodding out no later than the 6th inning. For now, the Sox hold a 2-0 lead putting together single runs on the board in the first two frames off an erratic Phil Hughes. Lester's on his game, with five of his six outs coming on K's.

On Thursday and Friday, I went over some of the team stats as of the morning of May 1. My initial goal was to do a stats "round-up" after the completion of each month. I don't know if I'll be able to meet that meager goal, and I feel a little silly posting stats that are now four days old, but I've done the work . . . so . . . I'm going to post it. These are just general team stats, nothing flashy, intended to provide a general barometer of where various teams stood heading into the second month of the season.

Perusing the Stats v. 1
April 2009 Round-up

American League Offense
Runs Scored
142 Toronto
128 New York
126 Boston
123 Texas
117 Cleveland

Runs Scored - Bottom 5
79 Oakland
93 Minnesota
93 Seattle
97 Chicago
97 Kansas City

Team OBP
.366 Toronto
.364 Boston
.362 New York
.358 Cleveland
.352 Baltimore

Team OBP - Bottom 5
.311 Seattle
.313 Oakland
.328 Minnesota
.329 Texas
.331 Kansas City

Team SLG
.497 Texas
.473 New York
.472 Toronto
.463 Boston
.448 Tampa

Team SLG - Bottom 5
.322 Oakland
.372 Seattle
.386 Minnesota
.413 Chicago
.416 Baltimore

OPS - RISP
.922 Boston
.881 Seattle
.872 Toronto
.860 Texas
.856 Detroit

OPS - RISP - Worst
.614 Oakland
.696 Minnesota
.711 Chicago
.724 Los Angeles/Anaheim
.731 Cleveland

American League Pitching & Defense
Runs Allowed - Top Five
82 Kansas City
82 Oakland
84 Seattle
98 Chicago
103 Tampa

Runs Allowed - Bottom Five
144 Baltimore
136 New York
129 Cleveland
127 Texas
116 Minnesota

ERA
3.47 Seattle
3.62 Kansas City
3.71 Oakland
4.29 Detroit
4.34 Toronto

ERA - Worst
5.81 Cleveland
5.79 New York
5.75 Baltimore
5.70 Texas
5.26 Minnesota

Missing Bats (K/9)
7.98 Kansas City
7.39 Boston
7.32 Toronto
7.11 New York
7.01 Baltimore

Better Have Glove Men Behind You (K/9)
5.51 Texas
5.58 Los Angeles
6.14 Minnesota
6.51 Oakland
6.57 Chicago

No Souvenirs Staffs (Home Runs Allowed)
13 Seattle
16 Chicago
16 Kansas City
18 Oakland
20 Los Angeles

Whiplash (HR Allowed)
40 Baltimore
33 Texas
30 Cleveland
28 New York
27 Toronto

Free Passes - Stingiest (BB Allowed)
62 Minnesota
69 Seattle
70 Baltimore
70 Los Angeles
72 Detroit

Free Passes Come Easy (BB Allowed)
94 Cleveland
93 Boston
88 Oakland
88 Toronto
87 Tampa

Defensive Efficiency (Baseball Prospectus)
Flashing the Glove
.711 Toronto
.707 Oakland
.705 Tampa
.703 Seattle
.700 Detroit

Iron Gloves and Slow Feet - Defensive Efficiency
.654 Baltimore
.663 Los Angeles
.671 Chicago
.672 Cleveland
.680 Boston

National League Offense
Runs Scored
133 St. Louis
131 Los Angeles
119 Philadelphia
112 Florida
108 Colorado

Runs Scored - Fewest
77 San Francisco
78 Houston
78 Cincinnati
84 Arizona
85 Atlanta

Team OBP
.381 Los Angeles
.369 St. Louis
.362 New York
.356 Washington
.349 Philadelphia

Team OBP - Worst
.308 Arizona
.315 Houston
.315 Cincinnati
.318 San Francisco
.329 Florida

Team SLG
.464 Philadelphia
.450 St. Louis
.445 Los Angeles
.444 Colorado
.432 Milwaukee

Team SLG - Worst
.371 Cincinnati
.381 Houston
.383 San Francisco
.396 Chicago
.394 Arizona

OPS - RISP
,917 Atlanta
.899 St. Louis
.895 Philadelphia
.827 Los Angeles
.826 Florida

OPS - RISP Worst
.649 Houston
.690 San Francisco
.682 Arizona
.690 Chicago
.698 Washington

National League Pitching/Defense
Runs Allowed
75 Pittsburgh
80 San Francisco
90 Atlanta
92 Houston
92 Cincinnati

Runs Allowed - Bottom Five
124 Washington
115 San Diego
112 Philadelphia
108 Colorado
105 Arizono & Florida

ERA
3.41 Pittsburgh
3.65 St. Louis
3.90 San Francisco
4.06 Atlanta
4.11 Cincinnati

ERA - Worst
5.63 Philadelphia
5.46 Colorado
5.15 Washington
4.90 San Diego
4.70 Chicago

Missing Bats (K/9)
8.71 Atlanta
8.58 Chicago
8.31 San Francisco
7.79 Philadelphia
7.60 Los Angeles

Better Have Some Glove Men Behind You (K/9)
5.46 Pittsburgh
5.94 Washington
6.40 Colorado
6.47 Houston
6.53 Cincinnati

No Souvenirs Staffs - Home Runs Allowed
10 Atlanta
15 St. Louis
16 Florida
16 Los Angeles
17 San Francisco

Whiplash - Home Runs Allowed
40 Philadelphia
27 Colorado
27 Chicago
26 Washington
24 Arizona

Free Passes - Stingiest (BB Allowed)
73 Arizona
74 Philadelphia
78 St. Louis
78 Atlanta
79 Houston

Free Passes Come Easy (BB Allowed)
89 Florida
88 Milwaukee
88 San Diego
87 Cincinnati
86 Pittsburgh

Defensive Efficiency (Baseball Prospectus)
.740 Pittsburgh
.715 Los Angeles
.710 Cincinnati
.710 Milwaukee
.698 New York

Iron Gloves & Slow Feet - Defensive Efficiency - Worst
.669 Colorado
.672 Atlanta
.680 San Diego
.681 Houston
.681 Washington

2009-05-01T09:14:00.007-04:00

Delirium.

Okay, now I'll say it. This is one of the greatest series in NBA history. No need for disclaimers or reasons to hedge your bets in offering superlatives. Another night, another three overtimes to add to the tally and the series exactly where it should be after six games: three games to three. It sets up what will be one of the more anticipated Game 7s in the history of Boston basketball, and that's saying a lot. Forget 1st round, I expect a frenzy in the new Garden on Saturday fit for the Finals.

The series of big plays became a blur . . . there were just too many to keep track of. The Brad Miller three when the Bulls were down 5 with under 2 minutes to go in regulation. John Salmons' basket in the final 24 seconds of the 1st overtime to tie it. The amazing jumpers by Ray Allen, including the three that tied it at 118 with 7.6 seconds to go in the 2nd overtime. And of course the penultimate defensive moment of the game: Rose's block on Rondo's turnaround jumper with 8 seconds to go in the 3rd overtime that for all intents & purposes sealed the 128-127 victory for Chicago.

There is a sense of delirium that takes over when watching a basketball game like that. It's unique to that sport, because you lose track of the sequence of plays; it's akin to sensory overload. "How did we get here again?" Watching the game tonight was similar to how I felt standing in Madison Square Garden back in March watching UConn battle Syracuse for six overtimes well into the early hours of the next morning. You get to a point where you don't want it to end, and the outcome is far outweighed by the nature of the game itself. I probably wouldn't have felt that way when I was 15, but I can say that with certainty now.

Just because he's one of my favorite players ever, I have to single out Ray Allen's singular performance. Last week, Bill Simmons singled him out as the difference maker, the one guy the Celtics had to rely on in order to win the series, and that rang true tonight. Allen led the Celtics with a playoff career-high 51 points, which is tied for second most in Celtics playoff history. He also became the first Celtic to score 50 points in a playoff game since John Havlicek scored a franchise-record 54 points in 1973. And he tied the NBA playoff record of nine three-pointers in one game. Wow . . . just . . . wow.

There's never been a series like this one before. Four overtime contests in the first six games (no other series had ever had more than two), and seven overtime sessions; no other team in the history of the NBA had played more than six sessions in one entire post-season.

I have no prediction for the outcome of Game 7, except to say that I will not, as I'm sure some pundits will, question the amount of gas left in Boston's tank. The Bulls' younger legs might carry the day, but if the Celtics were going to be undone by their cranky bodies and weary legs it would've happened already. Anything less than a one possession game with under a minute to go will be a disappointment.

----
Becoming a late-night habit in the early going so far: ending my evening listening to Vin Scully's call of the Dodger game. Dodger Stadium was packed last night for the Padres game. I've sensed a shift in recent times, which has intensified in the Manny Era, of Dodger home games having more energy and spirit. A subtle, subjective observation. But it just feels and looks like an exciting place to be right now.

In what was a close game late, the Dodgers pulled out an 8-5 victory to run their record to 7-0 at home (1st time since '47) and 15-8 overall. The teams in baseball with less than 10 losses as we finish off the first month of the season:

16-7 St. Louis
15-8 Dodgers
14-8 Florida
14-8 Boston
15-9 Toronto
13-9 Seattle

The Cardinals start has been very impressive, and with their 9th inning rally last night at Washington and the Cubs late-innings meltdown vs. the Fish, Chicago is now 5 games behind St. Louis. One month in, and the Cubbies have their early season work cut out for them.

2009-04-29T08:03:00.002-04:00

A Mid-Spring Classic

Put one more check mark in the "remarkable" column when it comes to the Celtics-Bulls series. At a time when the word "classic" has been watered down and de-valued, this series is quickly becoming made-for-DVD. Three overtime games in the first five contests, and enough story lines to keep the scribes busy for days in Boston and Chicago. In fact, as Bob Ryan pointed out this morning in the Globe, it's the first playoff series in NBA history to feature three overtime games. And we still have Game 6 and (a likely) Game 7. I mean, how could this series not go seven games?

Beyond the twists & turns within the individual games, there are also the various subplots that have sustained since the start of the series: the emergence of Rajon Rondo as one of the best players in the NBA, not just point guards, and his match-up with ROTY Derrick Rose; the intensity from both teams, both sides of the ball at all times (sans Chicago in Game 3); the unending stream of clutch shots by both teams. Last night it was Paul Pierce delivering a trio of step-back jumpers from essentially the same spot on the floor that were the decisive blows. We were two Brad Miller free throws away from going to double-overtime for the second consecutive game, which I'm certain I've never seen in the playoffs.

The regular season in the NBA is so long and so irrelevant & tiresome, you forget how great the sport the can be when it's played full-tilt with everything at stake. If this was the Conference Finals or better, there would be talk that this was one of the great series in playoff history. It's been that good.

----
The Yankees had one of their "bully games" last night, handing Detroit an 11-0 whipping at Comerica Park. New York seemingly had a slew of these games last season, i.e. blowout victories that would help to balance out their run differential in the midst of poor stretches of the season.

Last night was a little different, however, in that for most of the night the game was anything but a foregone conclusion. Scoreless through six innings, the Yanks planted a 10-spot on the Tigers in the 7th and it was game, set, match. Jose Molina hit a grand slam for crissakes . . . it turned out to be that kind of night.

More newsworthy was the performance of Phil Hughes, back up to the bigs and taking Chien-Ming Wang's spot in the rotation. Hughes v3.0 didn't come with the expectations levied on him in '07 and '08 as a wunderkind, but the pressure was no less intense to provide a positive sign for the staggering Yankees. From Goldman on Tuesday:

Only Phil Hughes can save the Yankees' season, or so it seems on the eve of his first start of 2009. It's a dramatically unfair place for a 23-year-old to be, but somehow, some way, the Yankees need to get this season started. It's ironic that the Yankees bent over backwards to make Hughes unnecessary this past offseason. They didn't want to depend on him. Now, until they see consistency from their other starters, not to mention anything at all useful from Chien-Ming Wang, they'll feel lucky to have him to depend on.

Hughes responded with one of his best performances (6/2/0/0/2/6 -- look a palindrome!), matching zeros with Edwin Jackson and giving the offense sufficient time to place their overdue breakout.

I don't know if this will last, but for one night it was a much-needed stabilizer and a hint that maybe "Phil Franchise" will reach his fabled potential after all.

----
In un-Sox-like fashion, the Red Sox gaffed away an easy opportunity for extra innings and saw their winning streak end at 11. With a runner on 2nd and two outs in the 9th in a tie game, Youkilis made a nice back-handed grab in the hole and made a textbook flip to Lopez covering the bag. Unfortunately, Lopez took his eye off the ball to check his feet and never caught it. As the ball rolled on the ground, Mark DeRosa scored the winning run.

The Sox had leads of 5-1 and 7-3 in the early innings, but couldn't hold it as Brad Penny (8.66 ERA) had another poor start. Both teams' bullpens did admirable work allowing only three total runs after the 3rd inning.

----
The Rays lost a road game in the 9th inning as well. Tampa is now 8-13, 6.5 games behind Toronto.

Speaking of the Jays, Neyer addressed them in his blog on Tuesday. After noting, among other factors, the over-performance to date of the top two guys in the line-up (Marco Scutaro and Aaron Hill):

If the Blue Jays wind up being real contenders, it would be a great story, and would send a lot of us back to our slide rules to figure out how it happened. But one month into the season, I'm not convinced that what we thought on Opening Day isn't still true.

Rob also chimed in on the Joba Bullpen Thingy, which was resurrected after the Boston series by the Yankee beat writers. As tiresome as the topic is, Rob's not the first to mention a possible injury as an explanation for his drop in velocity. Goldman mentioned it already this week:

Indeed, in Chamberlain's dozen starts last year, he posted a 2.76 ERA and struck out 74 batters in 65 innings. Relegating a guy like that to the bullpen would be off-the-charts crazy unless he could, year in and year out, give you 100 innings of sub-2.00 ERA relief.

That was the context of the offseason discussion (though it often was not). Today, though? In 16 innings as a starter this year, he has struck out 11 batters and walked 10. So, yes, if he continues on this path -- say, another eight or 10 starts like this -- the Yankees will be forced to consider making a move, at least if Chien-Ming Wang is back in action.

Here's the thing, though -- why would we assume that moving to the bullpen will magically cure whatever is ailing Chamberlain? Isn't it likely that the same qualities that made him a dominant starter contributed to him being a blow-'em-away reliever?

Maybe Joba's not healthy, and maybe it's because he's starting. But the Yankees need to be real sure about what's going on before doing anything rash. Because it's rapidly becoming apparent that they won't have a great margin for error this season.

----
Six years ago tonight, I was rockin' in the free world.

2009-04-27T19:02:00.002-04:00

The Show Must Go On

It's tough to be sitting in late April and believing in the core of your gut that the Red Sox remain clearly better than the Yankees. In addition to that, there is little hope that if this listless, aging ballclub does happen to find its way into October, its visit to post-season will be anything but short-lived. Those are my thoughts now, but there are games to be played now and the season must roll on.

The three plays of the weekend series at Fenway, their impact clear and convincing like a lightning strike on an otherwise perfect summer night: the Bay home run on Friday night in the 9th; the Varitek grand slam off Burnett on Saturday; and the steal of home last night. And though none of these three plays technically won any of the games for the Red Sox, at the very least they crystallized key factors that have contributed, or are contributing to, the aforementioned gap between these two franchises. The Bay home run: Boston's continued relative success against Mariano. The Varitek grand slam: symbolic both of the Yankees' inability to keep the Red Sox down (They hadn't blown 6-run lead or greater since Boston since '68), and the elusive chase of finding a consistently effective FA starting pitcher in recent years. The steal of home: Boston's mental edge over New York.

Time to take my mind off that debilitating series and move on.

Last week I made such a big deal about Florida's fast start, and they turn around and lose six in a row to the Pennsylvania teams. Getting swept by the pitching-hot Pirates, while ugly, was somewhat understandable: the Marlins were due for some letdown. But they were dismantled by the defending champs this weekend at home, outscored 26-9 over three games and done in by their unreliable bullpen. Where Florida goes from here is anyone's guess, but they still maintain a 1.5 game lead in the division, so once they get their equilibrium back they should be fine.

They head into New York for a three-game series starting tonight. They've had success against the Mets in the recent past, and the pressure is certainly on the Metropolitans to follow-up their ho-hum 2-1 weekend series victory over the Nats with some substantial victories in the division. Another series loss to Florida, and I think the Mets will be close to marking themselves as "also-rans."
----
If the Celtics-Bulls game yesterday in Chicago had ended with a buzzer beater, it would've taken its place among the top handful of NBA playoff games I've ever seen. It didn't, but the double-OT contest was basketball at its finest, and sets the stage for a must-watch Game 5 in Boston on Tuesday night.
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As Rob Neyer put it, "You stay classy, Randy Levine." What a joke.
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I read the first sentence and I'm thinking how bad a bad Brian Wilson concert would have to be at this point in his career, especially if it was obvious that he'd been "partying" the night before. And then I realized it was a different Brian Wilson. My musically-inclined mind got the best of me.
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Alright Torse, what do you think?
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Album of the moment. My initial reaction was one of indifference, and I barely listened to it that entire summer after it was released. Then it was like a pot on the stove in which you raise the temperature one notch every three or four months. It's reached a full boil now, and it takes its place alongside any other Wilco album you deem as transcendent. It took a long time for its textures and nuances to reveal themselves to me fully, but I'm now finding it inexhaustible. And kudos to Jeff Tweedy for making opening lines like "The band marched on in formation" feel like they're holding the secrets of the universe, just because of the way they're being sung.
----
At a certain point, I'm going to have to take a closer look at what exactly is up with the Toronto Blue Jays (14-6, +1 A.L. East). They've been equally good at home (7-3) and on the road (7-3), and currently lead the majors in the runs scored. They were written off heading into this season after supposedly going for broke last year and again being left out of the post-season fray. They're currently tied for sixth in runs allowed in the A.L., and have already been dealt their share of injuries. I think they have better staying power than early surprises like the Pirates or Padres, but I have to believe all the division games to come are going to start catching up with them. To their credit however, they've already played well in a couple of trick spots on the road: 3-1 at Minny, and 2-1 at Chicago. They have four on the road this week against Kansas City, and then return home for two vs. Baltimore and two vs. Cleveland. That +8 over .500 could get into double digits within the week.

2009-04-25T07:49:00.002-04:00

We've Seen This Before

The Boston Red Sox have scored one more run than the Yankees this season, playing in the same amount of games: 16. Boston has allowed 35 fewer runs (67 to 102), but if you'll allow me to take out the 15 and 22 runs allowed in Chien-Ming Wang's last two starts and replace them with the Yankees' average RA/G total, that number shrinks a bit. I think Boston will hold a pitching/defense advantage over the Yankees this year from wire-to-wire, but it's fairly close, statistically.

In other words, these two teams are very similar and I would expect them to be within 3-4 wins of each other by season's end.

And yet last night exemplified the absolute gorge that still separates these two franchises. With memories of the first Fenway game in 2007 rattling in my head, Mariano Rivera pulled a similar trick against the team that has rendered him mortal since 2001.

In one towering home run by Jason Bay in the 9th to tie it, and with one Youkilis swing in the 11th to win it (off of one of Brian Cashman's more dubious pitching acquisitions of late), the Red Sox cemented that, yes, they are still the favorites to win this division (not that I doubted that earlier in the evening) and it's the Yankees who resemble a dog chasing its tail when it comes to this rivalry now.

It was a gut-puncher. With the Boston line-up far different than recent incarnations, mainly due to David Ortiz looking mortal this season, they were still able to deliver in a spot against Rivera, who had looked excellent so far this season. Boston's nine may lack the punch of previous teams (6th in the A.L. in home runs right now), but they're still carrying the defending A.L. MVP and are boasting the hottest hitter in the world right now in Youkilis, who has emerged far beyond the "Greek God of Walks" moniker that Billy Beane levied on him seven years ago.

The Yankees are teetering on the brink of a terrible weekend. In addition to losing in now-familiar fashion in that park, they lost their third baseman to the DL and their second best reliever who was surprisingly unavailable last night, is back in New York and getting his elbow examined. After throwing 30+ pitches last night, Rivera is most likely on the shelf this afternoon, and Marte might be shot for good in terms of giving the Yankees anything of note. As emotionally fired up as he was last night on the mound, you got the feeling he was putting everything into that performance, a chance for redemption for his poor work in pinstripes so far. And it didn't work out. At all.

They will need innings and quality out of their two starters today and tomorrow (Burnett and Pettitte) to try and off-set a Boston sweep and not make the A.L. East race a foregone conclusion in late April. Although my money says it already is . . .

2009-04-23T21:56:00.003-04:00

Wrapping up Game 3

With the Celtics running the Bulls off the court as the 4th quarter approaches, I figured it was time to fire up the ol' MLB.TV package. Dodgers up 1-0 in the 7th; Tigers and Angels getting underway as the only West Coast game of the night.

Bulls are shooting 34% from the field with three minutes left in the 3rd.

And this is nauseating. It's tough, I admit it. It's tough to be a Yankee fan at this point in time. Not only have then been a poorly run franchise post-2001, but they have become truly unlikeable from a personality standpoint. I mean, who is Randy Levine? Or who does he think he is?

You have to admire the Yankees at some level for their staunch refusal to play the public relations game. Empty seats that make Yankee Stadium look like Pittsburgh? We don't care because we're making money all the same. Widespread negative response to a Stadium and the amount it costs to visit? We're raising prices.

On another level, though, that plan turns your stomach. The team's owner has admitted some of the tickets are overpriced, which is a pretty clear sign that they're overpriced, but Levine sees no reason to turn back. Either Levine knows something we don't about where the economy is headed in the next few months, or he's insane.

Here's a vote for insane.

Even Bill Simmons dropped an embarrassing Yankee Stadium reference in his Celtics-Bulls column.

2-0 Dodgers now, and the Celtics still up 25 in the 4th know. Make that 27 after a Marbury lay-up. Marbury . . . strange to be saying that in relation to a Celtics playoff game.

David Pinto is relentless in his posting. But this blog is proving to exhaustive, and exahusting to keep up with. And it's on NBC no less. A good job so far from an established group of baseball writers.

The Celtics are closing in on the century mark. The Bulls are still stuck in the 60s. For one night at least, the demise of the defending champions has been greatly exaggerated. The loudest talking head of them all declared Boston dead in the series, even after the great win in Game 2. Simmons thought they'd get blown out today but still win the series.

We'll see what turn the series takes from here, but I have to believe this was a huge blow to the Bulls' fate in the series. They're young and energetic; they'll bounce back from this and at the very minimum get this back to Boston for a Game 6. But I have to believe if they were going to pull off the upset, tonight is a game that would've had to get.

Tomorrow, I'll try and chime in about the upcoming Yankee-Red Sox series, which has a good buzz to it already.

2009-04-23T21:31:00.003-04:00

3rd Quarter

What jumped out at me when looking quickly at the Reds's pitching/defensive numbers (T-6th in RA), is just how good the Pirates' numbers are. I knew the Pirates' staff has been pitching very well of late, and certainly noticed that they swept the heretofore scorching Marlins at PNC this week. What I didn't know is the Pirates have been the stingiest team in the league in terms of runs allowed. This the Pirates we're talking about here.

Their 50 RA are four better than the Dodgers. They lead the league in ERA at a nifty 3.07, buoyed by a league-best four shutouts. Sustainability? I don't know. They're whiffing batters at a less-than-pedestrian rate (their 77 Ks is the worst mark in the NL). They are, however, among the staunchiest of staffs in terms of allowing free passes, home runs and hits. In the latter category they're second in the league behind L.A. with only 115 hits allowed in these first 2+ weeks of the season. So with all these balls in play, either they have an excellent defense or they've been hit-lucky . . . or something somewhere in the middle. If that K-rate stays that low, it will be interesting to see if Pittsburgh's other numbers start coming back to Earth.

Pittsburgh's starters to date:

Pat Maholm -- 3-0, 2.03
Zach Duke -- 2-1, 2.95
Ross Ohlendorf -- 1-2, 3.00
Ian Snell -- 1-2, 4.24
Jeff Karstens -- 1-0, 3.60

Not exactly the 1970 Orioles, but they're hanging in there so far. And the sweep of the Marlins was impressive regardless; Florida had been flying coming into that series.

Celtics still up 20 here in the 3rd quarter.

2009-04-23T21:13:00.002-04:00

Halftime

As halftime approaches, and the Celtics closing in on a 20-point lead, it's time for a couple of random baseball thoughts.

The Cincinnati Reds are on a nice little run right now. They caught my eye a smidgen in the preseason as a young team with some very interesting players: Volquez, Votto, Bruce. They were an outfielder's error away from the 2nd straight shutout of the Cubs in Wrigley Field this afternoon. The Reds' 7-1 victory today followed up a 3-0 blanking of the Cubbies on Wednesday and pushed their record to 9-6.

Aaron Harang picked up his second victory of the season and dropped his ERA to an even-2 with low-K gem: 7/7/1/0/1/2. He outdueled Carlos Zambrano in a game that allowed Cincy to take 2 of 3 at Wrigley and finish a 10-game road trip 7-3.

The N.L. Central looks pretty much like the other five divisions, in terms of the win distribution from top to bottom: 11 (Cards) - 9 (Cincy) - 9 (Pittsburgh) - 8 (Cubs) - 6 (Astros) - 6 (Milwaukee)

That's almost identical to the A.L. East and West and N.L. West.

Halftime: Celtics 59, Bulls 37

2009-04-23T21:02:00.004-04:00

The Legend of Ray Clay.

It's an NBA night. I don't get the chance to say that very much anymore, but with the Yankees and Red Sox on the shelf for the night and the Mets already packed up for the day . . . TNT is the channel of choice for the evening.

More than just the lack of action from the three locals, there is a matter of a Game 3 in the Celtics-Bulls series, which would've drawn my attention regardless of what was taking place on the baseball diamond. The Celtics look competent (Paul Pierce especially is having a nice half); the Bulls look terrible, with a flurry of missed free throws and a bakers' dozen worth of turnovers. Three minutes in the half and Boston's up 12.

I fully expect to Chicago to be in this game down the stretch, but the anticipated frenzy of the Chicago crowd and energy of the young Bulls have been muted to this point.

There is no one who can get more revved up for an NBA game than Bill Simmons. In fact, he might be the only person who could get me revved up for an NBA game, no small feat at that.

2009-04-21T20:53:00.003-04:00

"Money . . . it's a gas"

A damp night in the Bronx with scattered showers still in the forecast. Andy Pettitte is doing his typical balancing act of allowing base runners and then getting out of major trouble. Yanks are up 4-2 in the top of the 4th, and the A's have the tying runs at the corners with two outs.

Fly ball to left for the final out of the inning as the precipitation is picking up.

It's a sleepy Tuesday night to begin with, and this game in a dank Yankee Stadium is just adding to it.

More empty seats scattered throughout the "prime" seating areas tonight. I'm sure you know, but this topic has been getting plenty of attention, both in the mainstream media and the blog set. Neyer had a post on it today. Accompanying pic from Friday afternoon's game here.

Look at that picture. There is something obscene about the whole design of that section. The good patrons of these sections (and look, just because someone is "rich," whatever vague connotations that volatile word holds, doesn't make someone a bad person) are barricaded off from the rest of the fans as if they are at a totally different event. Maybe they're getting to call pitches, or are flashing signs to the baserunners. The effort to separate these people from the rest of the congregation strikes me as something ironic, if I could only pin down the exact irony . . . A railing's not enough; they actually had to build a concrete wall to quarantine this section off. The message is consistent now with these ballparks; and I'm saying this now about Yankee Stadium and Citi Field and the new Giants/Jets football stadium: the large majority of fans who have attended these sporting events for generations, and who made going to these events a central form of leisure in their lives, are being shuffled around, shushed down and being told they really don't matter. "Well . . . you kind of matter (wink, wink), but you don't really matter."

The upper deck is filled pretty well tonight, and I suspect for the majority of people braving 50 degree weather in rain gear it's important to be there. Going to a baseball game is a big deal, and an important thing. And for people with a really lot of money, who could be spending it on really good seats, it's just not as important.

Just one conclusion out of the many to be drawn from this unexpected socioeconomic experiment in the midst of the baseball season.

2009-04-18T07:08:00.002-04:00

Saturday Morning
(aka Looking Back/Looking Ahead)

It's been a hectic couple of days, and my emphasis has been more on optimizing my sleep as opposed to getting up early before work just to update this blog. Ah . . . the dilemma of the blogger. As always, a Saturday morning presents a fresh opportunity.

A couple of items are still rattling in my head from this week as we head into the weekend's slate of games.

Wakening
I know it's a few days old now, but has there been a bigger (more important) starting performance this season than the one that Tim Wakefield levied on the A's on Wednesday afternoon? Some my laugh, but a 2-7 start and a 48-hour window without a game would've sent the Nation off into something in between hives and full-out crisis mode. Wakefield, my favorite Boston player, had one of his finest pitching performances when his team needed it the most. About a half-day removed from an extra inning loss in which the bullpen was taxed and the team's #3 starter was removed after one inning, Wakefield put his team on his back, coming within five outs of a no-hitter. At one point I glanced at his pitch count in the middle of the game and he had thrown 54 pitches, 44 of them for strikes. It was as if he was placing with pin-point accuracy the unplaceable pitch.

His final tally, to borrow Steven Goldman's pitching line format: (9/4/2/2/2/4) 111 pitches, 76 strikes. 9 groundouts, 14 flyouts. The A's got the ball in play against him. They just couldn't do anything with it.

He seemed unfazed by the responsibility put on his shoulders that particular day. From MLB.com's game report:

Before the game even started, Wakefield walked into Francona's office and told the manager that he knew full well how much the team was depending on him, considering the circumstances. With Daisuke Mastuzaka pitching just one inning on Tuesday, the Red Sox needed 10 2/3 innings out of their bullpen during that defeat.

"I did stop in his office," said Wakefield. "I said, 'I understand the circumstances today and I just want you to know that whatever happens, don't take me out. Just let me keep going.'"

After last night's 10-8 victory over Baltimore, Boston stands at 4-6 with Beckett & Lester lined up to give them a good shot to be at .500 by weekend's close.

Snap Shots
Maybe it didn't garner too much attention nationally, but Clayton Kershaw's pitching performance on Wednesday night against the Giants was quite simply one of the great starts in recent history by a young pitcher. Don't believe me? Among other things noted by Aaron Gleeman in his report on NBC's active Circling the Bases blog on Thursday:

Baseball-Reference.com tracks all sorts of data going back to 1954, and since then no other 21-year-old pitcher has ever totaled double-digit strikeouts while allowing two or fewer baserunners in a game. And the only pitcher since 1954 to do so before the age of 21 is Kerry Wood, who tossed that ridiculous 20-strikeout one-hitter against the Astros as a 20-year-old in 1998.

Kershaw's line for the night: 7/1/1/1/1/13

It's getting hard, very hard, to envision a scenario in which the Dodgers don't win the N.L. West. Especially considering Arizona's pitching problems. L.A., now winners of six straight after beating Colorado last night, have a two-game lead on the Rockies and are four up on the Snakes and Giants. Tied for 1st with the Dodgers are the Padres, also at 8-3, who won last night in Philadelphia. It's been a fun start for San Diego, but that crash to earth is inevitable. It's just a matter of when.

====
Among the numerous fables and tall tales I was weened on as young Yankee fan, one that was seemingly crafted in marble & granite was the story of the first game ever played at Yankee Stadium. April 18, 1923. The Boston Red Sox in town. A crowd of over 74,000 (later changed to 60,000 as a matter of record). Babe Ruth himself christened the new ball-palace with a decisive home run, and a century of great moments was underway. And now this young generation has a new story to pass on to their grandchildren: the compelling story of the Cleveland Indians battering around a shaky Yankee bullpen en route to a 10-2 rout on Thursday. Good times.

*The Yankees can have their overwrought and overdone stadium with the Hard Rock Cafe and New York Steak House and thousand dollar seats. But as the years go by since their last championship, and most decisively since 2004, the less oomph these Yankee fables seem to have on the team's current incarnation. Now, forever etched in history is the opening of this new edifice by a relatively mediocre Yankee team, losing in ho-hum fashion. With this current executive Yankee regime, Ruthian tales and feats of glory feel more like fodder for marketing materials than a legacy that is being built upon.

From William C. Rhoden's column in the Times yesterday:

On its own merits, the new Stadium is a gem. Every effort was made to duplicate and, in many instances extend, the charm of the old Stadium. The signature frieze at the top of the stadium bowl is back, the manually operated auxiliary scoreboard is replicated, and a gap between the bleachers and right field allows us to get a peek at the No. 4 elevated train.

But some crucial things did not make the trip across the street — and they never will.

Mystiques are created by championships and championship moments: title fights, football classics and World Series victories. The old mystique is gone. You can argue that the mystique began to fade seasons ago.

FWIW, the Yankees' victory on Friday was more of the vintage variety: a bunch of home runs, a big hit by the Captain and a close-out by Mo. At 6-5, the Yankees are doing a bit better than "treading water," although it doesn't feel that way. Considering they've lost their starting right fielder, Matsui has already had to get his knee drained, Teixeira has already received a cortisone shot, they're without their best player for a month and have received various levels of pitching excellence and pitching incompetence (in other words, the moundsmen have been all over the map), a game over .500 seems like a good proposition in the early going.

*My first trip to the new Yankee Stadium will be in May, so I'll hold complete judgement until then.

===
Two books on my baseball reading list. The Yankees Years rejuvenated my appetite for baseball literature, and I've been reading some of Roger Angell's work, which I typically do at some point every April.

===
Good lord, Cody Ransom is struggling . . . It's almost at the point now that it's uncomfortable to watch. From Goldman's column yesterday afternoon:

The Yankees' 5-5 start is discouraging, but it's not as depressing as is Cody Ransom's first 10 games as A-Rod substitute. Ransom is not a kid. He's a 33-year-old vet. He has had six shots at a big league career since 2001 without ever catching on. We are likely looking at his last chance to have at least a single season in the major leagues, first as Alex Rodriguez's substitute, then as his caddy. The odds were against Ransom succeeding, because his long experience in the minors showed that he would not hit with enough consistency. Despite this, his small-sample hot streak of last fall gave hope that he could make it. This is the kind of player who is great fun to root for. Unfortunately, Ransom is now 3-for-30 with 10 strikeouts, and it is difficult to see how the Yankees can afford to keep playing him, however quickly A-Rod is expected to come back, or even how they can retain him on the Major League roster once Rodriguez is active. Thursday's defeat had many fathers, but any kind of contribution from Ransom early on might have meant a different complexion to the game.

Ransom added to that handi-work a 1-3 effort (a single and a strikeout) against the Indians on Friday.

===
As we were reminded of the greatest 500 home run call of them all this week, I find it ironic that another 500 home run milestone was reached last night and no one cares.

===
Things to watch today/questions to answer:
1. How much will Chien-Ming Wang lower his 28.93 ERA?

2. The Marlins have a great shot to be 11-1 by sundown on Sunday. 11-1. Josh Johnson (2-0 with 0.57 ERA) goes for this third win today against the 1-8 Nats. And they back that up with Chris Volstad (2-0 with a 1.50 ERA), who will be going for his 3rd win on Sunday. In case you haven't noticed, Florida has some pretty good young arms . . .

3. Good match-up tonight of southpaws at the Trop: Buehrle (1-0, 2.38) vs. Kazmir (2-0, 2.84)

4. Two teams that I'm not sure where their headed right now: Anaheim and Minnesota. Anaheim b/c of their injuries and the emotional toll this season has already taken on them, and the Twins . . . well, because they're the Twins.

5. Zack Greinke hasn't given up an earned run yet. Two starts, 11 innings of work. That comes to an end tonight in Texas, but the Royals have an excellent shot of moving +3 above .500.

6. Seattle has Bedard on the hill as they try to climb to 9-3. Of all the true surprises right now (and I'll include Toronto, Florida [I think they're good, but 9-1 good?] and San Digeo), I think the Mariners have some true sticking power just because of the flightiness of their division.

Enjoy the weekend. Today is going to be a good baseball on the radio day, with temps on the East Coast tearing into the 70s.

2009-04-15T12:10:00.002-04:00

Tuesday Night Bounce-Back

The score (7-2) belies the quality of the game played last night at Tropicana Field between the Rays and Yankees. The game featured outstanding starting pitching, highlighted by a mild flirtation with a no-hitter by A.J. Burnett, and intensity worthy of a game between two playoff contenders, including a couple of brush-back pitches. The Yankees' four-run 9th knocked open what had been a nail-biter.

Burnett, being called on for the 2nd time to clean up Wang's mess, was simply brilliant. In eight innings of work (103 pitches), Burnett gave up 3 hits, 2 runs, struck out 9 and walked only 1. His one blemish of the night occurred when he gave up the three hits in succession to start the 7th, when at that point he had been nine outs away from a no-hitter.

Quick Hits: Brett Gardner, batting leadoff (Damon out with flu, dropping Jeter to 2nd in the batting order) raised his average to .296 with three hits, including two resounding doubles in his last two at-bats. The first two-bagger ultimately led to the Yanks breaking a 2-2 tie in the top of the 8th. The second was a key component of the four-run 9th . . . Jeter had his best game in a week, getting three hits and hitting the put-away three-run homer in the 9th . . . The Rays employed an over-shift, a la Giambi, against Teixeria. The Yankees first baseman, playing for the first time since Friday was 0-3 with a walk and is hitting .211. He did, however, drive ahead the go-ahead run in in the 8th on a sac fly batting right-handed against J.P. Howell . . . Since making a point on the weekend to emphasize Cano's trend of hitting the ball to left field, I don't think I've seen him do it since . . . In looking at the very top of the rotations of the three A.L. East favorites, Tampa's tandem of Kazmir and Garza takes a back seat to neither the Sox (Beckett & Lester) or New York (Sabathia and Burnett). Kazmir looked outstanding on Monday, issuing no walks against 6 Ks in 6+ innings of work. And tonight Garza had 9 Ks to 2 BBs in 7 innings.

It's apparent that the Yankees' coaching staff feel that Chien-Ming Wang's bad start is simply a mechanical issue. From today's Daily News:

Wang's arm had been dropping too low in his delivery, which resulted in him not getting on top of the ball. Instead of getting his typical heavy sinking motion, Wang was leaving his pitches up in the zone, allowing hitters to knock him around with ease.

Wang's side sessions appeared to have fixed those problems, giving the Yankees the confidence that their former ace would rebound. Even as he warmed up for Monday night's game, Wang's sinker looked like its old self.

"He made the adjustment on his side work. Before the game he warmed up tremendously, but when he went in the game, he was back to where he was in Baltimore," Eiland said. "It's there. I saw it on the side and I saw it between 6:30 and 7o'clock Tuesday night when he was warming up. He didn't take it into the game. It's that simple."

The fate of Wang remains to be seen. Ever since reading Bill James' article on the correlation between the success of young pitchers and strikeout rate in 2001's Historical Abstract, K/9 is always one of the first stats I glance at when it comes to hurlers in their early- to mid-20s. Wang has passed that age range, as he's now 29 and has established himself as a bonafide major league starter. However, he's always been performing a precarious balancing act. With a low strikeout rate, he needs a perfect blend of three other factors: a high groundball rate, low number of walks and low number of home runs allowed. As Steven Goldman pointed out yesterday:

There is a broader argument to be made that a pitcher like Wang, with his low strikeout rates, dependence on his defense, and less than pristine injury history, is not likely to be a 10- or 12-year pitcher in the Major Leagues. There are simply too many things that have to go right for him to pitch effectively, and if any aspect of his peak powers are compromised, he will have little to fall back on. A pitcher of this nature can simply have a bad year on balls in play, or allow his line drive rate to tick up slightly, and he's suddenly naked on the mound. Those looking for evidence of such a decline could point to Wang's ratio of ground outs to air outs, which has steadily declined throughout his Major League career, beginning at 2.87 in 2005, an excellent rate, and landing at 1.65 last season, still above average, but no longer in the dominant zone. Again, this kind of dire analysis is a reach right now. Wang has made two bad starts, two very bad starts. Two starts hardly constitute a trend.

The good news for the Yankees is that for the first time since 2003, if not earlier, they can weather a storm in their starting rotation and still maintain a high level of play.

Loose Ends
Upon packing it in on Tuesday night, I saw Boston score three runs in the 1st inning in Oakland to stake Dice-K to an early lead. Runs have been at a premium early for the Red Sox, as they came into Tuesday's game with the 2nd lowest total in the American League. The only Boston regular who's off to any start of note is Youkilis whose BA and OBP are both north of .500. The rest of the line-up is littered with pain-staking numbers in the low .200s or worse. This line-up should be better than having to overly worry about Nick Green sucking up the 9th spot while they wait for Lugo to return. But when nobody is hitting, it makes every spot in the line-up scream for attention.

Boston ended up losing 6-5 in 12 innings. Of note, Matsuzaka lasted only 1 inning after surrendering 5 in the 1st; game reports indicated that he was diagnosed with "arm fatigue" and the Boston scribes are already lined up to take shots at among other things the WBC.

I erroneously noted the other day that Cleveland was the last winless team at the close of Saturday's action. All it would've taken is for me to pick up a newspaper (if such a thing existed anymore) to see that the Nats are indeed still winless. I knew that . . . . kinda, sorta.

Speaking of the Indians: Carl Pavano lost his 2nd start of the season, albeit pitching much more respectably than his Cleveland debut. The Royals moved to two over .500, while the Tribe dropped to a league-worst 1-7 . . . Let the debate continue as to which team has been the biggest surprise this year, the Mariners or the Padres. Seattle scored an extra-inning, walk-off win against Anaheim to move to 6-2. The Padres (6-2) were off on Tuesday, and will resume their series with the Mets on Wednesday night . . . On that same subject, the O's moved to 6-2 with an extra inning win over the Rangers . . . The Marlins look every bit as good as their Florida brethren, the Rays, right now. Whacking the sorry Nationals around in the first series of the season was one thing, but after rolling the Braves 5-1 on Tuesday night, the fish are now 6-1, and are really looking the part of a playoff contender.

2009-04-12T07:51:00.004-04:00

Sunday Morning Coffee

A good baseball day for the first Saturday of the season. Weather was terrible on the East Coast, which enabled for viewing on-and-off throughout the day and into the night. We squeezed a late afternoon family walk into the mix, but needed winter hats and accompanying jackets and coats.

Toronto doesn't have much that is extraordinary about their team; in fact most of the projections having them being very ordinary this season. The exception, of course, is their ace Roy Halladay who picked up his 2nd win of the week in Cleveland yesterday. He wasn't great, but pitched well with men on base, keeping the Indians from mounting a serious rally all day.

His counterpart, Cliff Lee, pitched from the stretch all day long, left too many pitches up in the zone and is now 0-2 with an ERA a tick under 10. I'm reminded of just how random an endeavor like pitching can be. This guy has gone from Cy Young to (like his team) being forced to dig out of an early hole right off the bat.

From the MLB game Report:

"What the guys are battling right now is what every fan is feeling," manager Eric Wedge said. "When you get off to a start like this, everything's going to be [multiplied] times 10."

Yes, and it probably won't help the Indians much to hear they're the first Tribe team to begin a season 0-5 since the 1985 club that finished 60-102. It definitely won't help them to hear they're in danger of becoming the first Cleveland club to begin 0-6 since the 1914 Cleveland Naps, who finished 51-102.

Cleveland mounted a nice rally in the 9th, even forcing Gaston to remove an ineffective B.J. Ryan in the middle of the frame. Trailing 5-1 entering the inning, they cut it to 5-4 with two outs. But it was all for naught as Mark DeRosa was stranded at 2nd representing what would've been the tying run.

And so in an attempt to stave off 0-6, Cleveland turns to Anthony Reyes, their 4th or 5th starter depending on which depth chart you're looking at.

Working for a Living

It was a stomach squirming relief appearance by Jonathan Papelbon yesterday in Anaheim. The bottom line however, he got the job done, getting Howie Kendrick (after seven straight foul balls) to hit a fly ball with the bases loaded and a one-run lead in the 9th.

After showcasing his typical mid-90s hit and pinpoint control in his season debut at Fenway on Tuesday, he was off his game yesterday afternoon. To the point, he basically was pitching without his fastball. I mean, he had a fastball; the Fox gun was still clocking him at 94-95, but as Eric Karros kept noting over and over and over again, he didn't have much command of it. Varitek would set up outside and it would tail back in towards the plate. Tek would set-up high and the pitch would still nick the top edge of the strike zone. As a result, he gave up a couple of hits when he was ahead 0-2 and didn't have his typical put-away stuff.

With all that being said, it was as impressed as I can remember being with Papelbon in a single outing. He looked like he was laboring, and indeed his 39 pitches yesterday guarantee he's on the shelf for today's game. So deprived of the effectiveness of the main weapon in his arsenal, he went more to his slider and even mixed in a couple of change-ups in the inning. Varitek did his usual excellent job in the role of battery-mate-as-air-traffic-controller coaxing his closer through the turbulence and into an eventual safe landing. It was a fascinating inning to watch.

Speaking of Scary Closers

Here's how Carlos Marmol pitched to the Brewers' two best hitters with the tying run on base in the 9th. In going down 2-0 in the count to both Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, he went slider-slider-slider (for a strikeout) and then slider-curveball-slider-slider for another strikeout. Talk about a guy who can throw any pitch in any count, any situation. The Cubs have found their permanent closer, and if he's anything close to his numbers last year (WHIP under 1), it's another cog that cements their status as the class of the NL Central, if not the entire National League.

Enjoy the holiday for everyone celebrating today.

2009-04-11T06:34:00.005-04:00

Saturday Morning Snapshot

A busy day-and-a-half has concluded. Now: quiet Saturday in the early hours. One of the better listens to Modern Times in some time and two cups of coffee in (half-decaf).

A quiet baseball night. Yankee game was over by 7, and I didn't hang in there for the West Coast games. Jumped into the Tampa/Baltimore game for a bit before packing it in.

Is it worth even looking at the standings less than a week in? For what it's worth, the teams with one loss or none: Florida (4-0), the only undefeated team left; Toronto, Baltimore, Texas and Colorado all have one loss apiece. The one team without a win? Cleveland, who have just been hemmoraging runs this week. They've given up 42 runs in four games, 10 more than anyone else in baseball.

A handful of #1 starters make their second start of the season today, and a few of them will be looking for bounce-back performances after lousy '09 debuts. I'm thinking primarily of Sabathia; Cliff Lee and Justin Verlander, who all get pounded on Monday.

Nothing else particularly jumps off the page about today's match-ups.

The thing that's caught my attention the most regarding the Yankees' opening to this season it's been Robinson Cano's at-bats. He was 2-3 with a walk and a run scored yesterday in Kansas City. And dating back to last year, he now has a 15-game hitting streak going.

He's 8-14 on the season so far with four walks and zero strikeouts. If we can take *any* substance from this early season sample, this marks a dramatic shift from last season in which Cano netted 26 free passes the entire season (a ghastly .305 OBP). Cano is still the kind of player I don't entirely trust. A focused approach on the plate in April could melt into lethargy and a lack of focus in August. But for now, I'll take it. His at-bats have been crisp and calm. He's not jumping or lunging at the ball or swinging at bad pitches, and has shown an acceptance (or willingness) to slap the ball the other way when necessary. We'll see. He's always had the skill. It's just been an issue of disciplining that skill.

City Lights (Days Go By)

A great time in the City on Thursday night as I ventured out to see Bob Mould perform solo for the 1st time since 2003. However, it wasn't solo as Jason Narducy joined him on stage and accompanied him on electric bass. A pleasant surprise.

Jason probably remains the one person in the world I'm most envious as he gets to pal around and share the stage with Bob and another Bob.

Thursday's set was solid overall: a little flat in the 1st half, spectacular on the back end. I like the new album, but have to admit my initial buoyant reaction of Tuesday night has faded a bit.

"Things Happen for a Reason"

The other day my friend happened to comment on his disdain for this oft-issued phrase by those trying to process and reason tragic or unfortunate events. It's hard to argue with him, especially in the context of Nick Adenhart's passing on Thursday morning. If there is a reason, then it pushes the limits of our cognitive understanding of the world, because I can't believe there is a plausible answer that explains or justifies that event and others like it that take place every day. Steven Goldman offered his take on his Pinstriped Bible, so I'll leave most of the words for him to tackle.

What Goes Around Comes Around (Again and Again)

I have to admit, I smiled upon seeing Carl Pavano's line from Thursday:
1 IP 6 H 9 R 9 ER 2 HR 3 BB

After reading Verducci's book in the month leading up to the season, Pavano is not only as easy a target as we think he is, he sounds like a guy you'd want to root against. I find it odd when a move like this transpires in a good organization. Shapiro is one of the most respected GMs in the game; I don't even know what he would consider "break even" for this move paying off. I don't care how low the financial commitment is, I wouldn't have let this guy near my team. Kind of like not allowing Kyle Farnsworth to pitch in a tight game late. His slider did look nasty yesterday though.

Have a great weekend.

2009-04-09T07:03:00.002-04:00

Irksome Beginning

Another forgettable night in Camden Yards. Fell asleep right before the Yankees mini-rally in the 9th. After two games and eight innings of combined work, the Yankee starters have walked 8 men and struck out none. None as in zero.

A.J. Burnett brings that streak to an end this afternoon. I'll put the over/under for when he registers his first K at 1.1 innings. Who knew that the Yankees' starters first strikeout out of the season would be such cause for celebration?

Oh, and we can stop mentioning 1998? Please? From Feinsand's column today:

Girardi has first-hand knowledge of this type of situation, having played on the '98 Yankees that lost their first three and four of their first five before setting an AL record with 114 wins. "We started out 1-4 and we won a lot of games," Girardi said. "I expect this team to win a lot of games, too."

Feinsand also referenced it in his blog post. I know managers and ballplayers always have to paint a rosy pictures of losses, but enough. This team shouldn't even be mentioned in the same newspaper, let alone the same newspaper column, as the 1998 outfit.

Good bounce-back wins for Detroit and Kansas City. Both teams were the victims of pain-inducing relief work on Tuesday, and thanks to their starters (Miner and Greinke respectively) they allowed Toronto and Chicago 1 run between them. It had been 14 years since the Royals recorded a shutout in the Windy City.

And the Phillies joined the 2009 win column in a resounding fashion.

2009-04-08T07:23:00.003-04:00

Tummy Trouble

From Anthony McCarron in today's Daily News:

"When I'm watching him pitch and see the heat pad and then see him throwing 88-89 (miles per hour), it's almost like he's protecting something and pitching at 70%," said ex-catcher John Flaherty, who played in the majors for 14 seasons and is now a YES Network analyst. "But everybody says he's feeling fine, so obviously that wasn't the issue."

Still, Flaherty thought it odd "to see a day when (Sabathia) can't control his fastball and his velocity is down. When I've seen guys amped up, they're throwing gas and they're all over the place. But it was like he never really got going."

Television cameras showed him in the dugout with a heating pad on his side while the Yankees were hitting, but he insisted he was using it only to keep warm. The game-time temperature was 56 degrees, and it had rained much of the afternoon leading up to the first pitch.

Sabathia has had two abdominal strains, both serious enough to warrant time on the disabled list, so he was using the heating pad as a preventative measure, Brian Cashman said. With Cleveland, Sabathia was on the disabled list with a right oblique strain from March 25-April 15, 2005 and again from April 3-May 2, 2006 with the same injury.

"I can understand why people would ask the question," Cashman said. "But he has a history of early oblique strains and it (the heating pad) is a preventative thing, nothing more than that. It's a program they developed to combat that.

"I can honestly tell you there is nothing bothering him, other than maybe the way he pitched. There is no health issue that we're hiding. If there was something that was troublesome, we'd do something about it tucked away where no one would see anything. He wouldn't be doing it in the dugout."

Will Carroll, who writes extensively about injuries for Baseball Prospectus, checked the data for Sabathia's start and noted that his release point was consistent early but fluctuated later. Carroll called that a "possible indication" of either fatigue or tightness, although there may be other explanations, as well.

Both Flaherty and Jim Kaat, who pitched in the majors for 25 seasons, said they thought it was unusual for a pitcher to use a heating pad on his side during a start. Flaherty said he'd seen pitchers use them on their arm or elbow, "but never on their midsection."

I agree that the monstrous-heating-pad-on-the-oversized-gut is worthy of attention, not just typical tabloid sensationalism. I have never seen a pitcher use something like that in the dugout, and Sabathia's performance was so cringe-worthy that you wonder if the appearance was more than just a coincidence.

And if the Yankee season wasn't off to a sour-enough note, here's something to go down with Hal & Hank's corn flakes this morning.

2008-10-09T21:58:00.007-04:00

Game 1 NLCS Dodgers-Phillies

Update: 11:00

Lidge on for the 9th and Philly three outs away from taking a 1-0 series lead. Kemp - Blake - DeWitt due up for Los Angeles.

For all that success that Lidge has had this year in the regular season, I can't help thinking of that majestic marvelous blast that Pujols hit in the NLCS three years ago as he steps to the mound now . . .

Fly ball to center. 1 out.

Throwing a lot of off-speed stuff.

Looked like a split to get him to 1-2 on Blake.

Tried it again and buried it in the dirt.

3-2.

Fly ball to Victorino in center, a step in front of the track. 2 outs. Three minutes in front of 11:00.

A crisp, well-played, well-pitched game that isn't keeping me until past midnight. I am grateful.

1-2, and Lidge's stuff looks very good here.

Citizens Bank Park in a frenzy.

Strike three, ball gets away and Ruiz fires to first. Game over, Phillies three wins away from the World Series for the first time since 1993.

Time of game: 2:36. Too bad every game that starts after 8:00 can't be that efficient.

Good day of baseball coming up tomorrow. NLCS in the afternoon, ALCS at night.

Update: 10:43

Greg Maddux held the Phillies scoreless in the 7th, despite a lead-off single. So Taguchi popped up the sacrifice bunt attempt, which helped kill any semblance of a rally.

The Phillies go with Ryan Madson to start the 8th. Some numbers on Madson this year:

IP: 82.2; H: 79; HR: 6; K: 67; BB: 23; WHIP: 1.23; ERA: 3.05

Ethier strikes out leading off. McCarver calls Madson's change-up "the best on the Phillies' staff."

Manny lines out to 3rd on the 1st pitch. Two away.

Madson's ERA was identical this year and in 2007, albeit in 26.2 more innings of work this year.

Martin reaches on a hard shot to 3rd, which a better 3rd baseman would've made a play on. Ruled a single, fairly, but wasn't an impossible play to make.

Joe Buck reminds us that Philly hasn't lost this year when leading after 8. That will be put to the test tonight as Madson gets a ground ball to 2nd off the bat of Loney.

Onto the 9th.

Update: 10:25

Hamels just over 90 pitches to start the 7th. And strikes out DeWitt for his 7th K.

Kent is pinch-hitting in the pitcher's spot.

This will be an interesting test for the Phillies' pen, as this is probably it for Hamels. Although his stuff looks very good, better now than it did in the early part of the game.

100 pitches and has Kent 2-2.

Struck him out with a fastball. 92 on the Fox gun.

Has Furcal down 0-2. Groundball out, and the Phillies will turn over at least a one-run lead to the pen at the start of the 8th.

Update: 10:13

This series already has a great feel to it, and it's only in the 6th inning of Game 1. I imagine most of the games are going to be like this: close, dramatic and hinging on one or two plays in the later innings.

I came into this series pulling for the Phillies as I think they would give the Red Sox a better fight, but I'm not 100% certain of that.

Another shot off of Lowe in the 6th. Burrell hit an absolute laser to left for a 3-2 lead. Lowe looks shocked, and Uncle Joe is heading out to the mound to get him.

He was cruising along through 4 2/3 -- then he gave up the two singles with two outs in the 5th (one to the pitcher), but got Rollins to fly out. No big deal. Then the error and the two bombs, and now his outing looks rather pedestrian and he's on the hook for the loss.

Update: 10:07

Victorino leads off the bottom of the 6th. Another ground ball . . . but no out this time. Furcal threw wide to 1st, and Victorino ends up on 2nd base.

That's really an ill-timed error; Lowe was moderately on the ropes in the 5th, allowing two base runners to reach with two outs. Now an error allows Philly to get their lead-off hitter in scoring position.

Hung a pitch to Utley, and the game is tied at 2. A towering fly ball home run to right.

First Post: 10:01 p.m.

Top of the 6th now in Philadelphia with the Dodgers up 2-0. Both pitchers are on their game, with Lowe that much more impressive, and the Phillies' offense being that much more stagnant. Derek Lowe has 11 ground outs; Cole Hamels has 6 strikeouts. And he just induced a 6-4-3 DP to erase a lead-off single.

Another ground ball to Rollins. Onto the bottom of the 6th.

2008-10-04T19:46:00.006-04:00

Saturday Night Round-Up

Update 10:26

All right. With my post tonight only a few minutes old and the computer still on, I felt compelled to join in the fray as Philly has two on and no outs down three in the 9th.

Victorino just dunked a soft base hit to left to load the bases. Yikes.

1st pitch to Pedro Feliz: the Brewers turn a 5-4-3 . . . Check that: Victorino went into 2nd standing for some reason, and the umps called interference after the fact. After huddling for a couple of minutes, the umps are deciding to send the runners back to 2nd and 3rd, taking a Philadelphia run off the board. Two outs, still 4-1. Strange play.

The Cubs and Dodgers are underway on TNT, soon to be switched over. A dribbler back to the mound off the bat of Ruiz and the Brewers' season remains alive. Game 4 is the early game tomorrow, 1:07 first pitch, with the probables not listed yet on MLB.com.

Two-out double by Derek Lee in the top of the 1st and the Cubs have a chance to score right off the bat.

And a quick check confirmed what I was 99.999% positive of: Pittsburgh did not sell out Three Rivers Stadium for Game 7 of the NLCS in 1991. I don't know what full capacity was for that stadium at that time, but looking at the attendance figures, it looks like games 1 & 2 were sellouts.

Game 1: 57,347

Game 2: 57,533

Game 6: 54,508

Game 7: 46,932

That's a remarkable drop-off, and I don't remember what the explanation was, if one one was ever offered.

Cubs strand two in the 1st.

A couple of notes about that series, which I only vaguely remember; I do remember Brian Hunter's home run in the top of the 1st which got Atlanta off and running to a 4-0 victory in Game 7. There were three 1-0 games in the series, which sounds like something out of 1963. There was also a 3-2 game, so pitching was the order of the day.

Dave O'Brien was the play-by-play radio announcer for the Braves. Currently he does work on the Red Sox radio network, in addition to his work with ESPN. According to Wikipedia, this was his final call in the penultimate game of that series:

"The kick and the 0-2 pitch...here's a bouncer to first, fielded by Hunter, he races to the bag! And the Atlanta Braves have won the National League championship! Strap on your dancing shoes, we're headed for the big ball, Atlanta!"

That sounds like a scripted closing line . . . but oh well. I suspect most announcers come up with a general idea of how they're going to punctuate a moment like that before it happens. O'Brien's grown on me. He has always come across as a no-frills, close-to-the-vest type of an announcer. Maybe a little dry, maybe a little bland. However, his radio work is top notch. Brings a reporter's eye to the proceedings, and delivers a succinct, clear delivery of the action. Very solid.

Original Post

The playoffs to this point have the feel of a 1st day of the NCAA basketball tournament in which all the higher seeds wins. Drama has been sucked dry to this point as every series is 2-0 going into the 3rd game. Now the Cubs being down 2-0 is a big story, but there is a lot of work to be done before that series becomes interesting again.

The Brewers are currently up on the Phillies 2-0 in the 4th, plating both runs in the opening frame.

In order, here's my take on the likelihood, from least likely to most likely, of each series getting back to a game 5.

1. Cubs-Dodgers. I just think public opinion has now swung too far the other way; I haven't heard one commentator giving the Cubs a chance of getting back to Chicago. If Harden's shoulder is okay, they have a great shot tonight, and Ted Lilly is a steady eddie who should be able to pitch under the pressure of a must-win in Game 4.

2. Rays-White Sox. I think Tampa is going to have trouble getting Game 3, especially if Danks pitches like he did on Tuesday, but I'd be somewhat surprised if Chicago wins both home games.

3. Phillies-Brewers. I can't see Milwaukee winning both games here, unless the Phillies' bats just don't show up at all. They haven't at all halfway through Game 3.

4. Sox-Angels. I'm tired of the Anaheim Angels. Or the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or whatever marketing positioned moniker you want to lay on them. Enough. I give this team credit for winning the World Series in 2002; it was a great run. A few major pieces of that team are still there (Scioscia, Lackey, Rodriguez, Anderson), and they'll forever deserve credit for getting a ring. But my patience has worn thin with them failing again and again to give the Red Sox a run for their money in the post-season. I will be shocked if this series sees the light of California again.

Update: Brewers now up 4-1 in the 8th, and Miller Park truly looking like a place that hasn't seen post-season baseball come through town in 26 years. Great shots of the crowd by the TBS crew, and it looks like they're enjoying every minute of it. I didn't feel that way about the Tampa crowd, as I believe it's comprised of a lot of johnny-come-latelys. This Milwaukee crowd is different, as I think the crowd would be in Kansas City; I'm hesitant to say Pittsburgh as I remember them not selling out a Game 7 of a National League Championship Series many moons ago.

I'm going to try and make it through the upcoming Cubs-Dodgers game, but my track record has been bad on the late games this week. I've watched very little of the Sox-Angels series, which is probably just as well.

2008-10-03T19:02:00.002-04:00

Pondering the Point of the Universe and Other Fun Topics for Your Next Social Gathering

What a fascinating and, in some ways, frustrating conversation I had with a friend of mine last night. It was one of those conversations that started with topics such as “Top 10 Pitchers I’ve Ever Seen” and wound its way into the ether, bringing the integrity and purpose of the post-season into question. It officially stretched into the next morning, as we were watching absolute garbage time, i.e. the last few innings in a hollow Wrigley Field. It was the kind of conversation that an observer could bring into question if we had done anything to alter our state of minds, as it just spun around and around and didn’t seem to go anywhere. For the record, there was nothing more intriguing being passed around than a jar of peanuts and some pretzels.

The crux of the conversation, inspired by the dramatic no-show by the Cubbies in the playoffs so far, was something Billy Beane has alluded to for years: the post-season is just a crapshoot and based largely on luck. I adhere to that ideology to a certain extent; isn’t the phrase “the team got hot at the right time,” basically a euphemism for luck? Is the fact that the Dodgers are up 2-0 in the series, against a team that won 13 more games than them, mainly about luck? Or is there something to the fact that some players (ahem, Manny Ramirez) and teams play better in what we deem as “a big spot” than others?

I don’t mean to turn this into an existential mumbo-jumbo monologue, but if something is based on luck and randomness to a large extent (as a best-of-five baseball series may be), why do we put such an emphasis on it? My friend made the point that he would be fine with all teams playing 162 games, and then recognizing whoever has the best record as the “champion.” But then we wouldn’t have “October baseball,” the World Series and all the amazing, memorable things that come with it, i.e. it wouldn’t be as fun. However, his reasoning is logical if all we want out of this is to find out who the best team is. 162 games is a heckuva lot better sample size than 5 games or 12 games or even 19 games.

“So what’s the point?” I asked, feeling frustrated and tired after watching a dull, boring baseball game for 3+ hours. “What’s the point of anything?” he replied. Thud – we had hit the limits that a late Thursday night on Earth would allow. Only baseball can lead you onto a conversational path where you end up questioning the point of life and the meaning of the universe. Today, I’m ready just to stick with the fact that the Angels are in a must-win situation and the Rays are in a great spot to go up 2-0 on Chicago.

My argument in favor of a post-season would be, understanding that the team that has proven itself as the best over the long haul doesn’t always win,the high level of intensity the sport is brought to in these games is worth it. All the intricacies of the game (pitch sequence, strategic decisions, etc) are heightened.

I made the point the other day that elimination games in baseball are the best sporting events out there. The difference between a game in October and a game in June is palpable. And in its own ridiculous way, the set-up mirrors life in that you can have sustained excellence over a long period of time, but there still comes that real important singular moment that defines things on a much larger scale.

If the Cubs lose to the Dodgers, going down quietly in the process, we’ll reason that, “Hey, it’s the Cubs.” For the sake of recording and keeping track of history, we need to put the end results into a final, tidy conversational perspective. This final analysis is what ultimately determines our general, lasting view of players and teams. The persona of the Boston Red Sox, pre-2004, was defined by terrible losses, in the same way that Reggie Jackson’s was defined by being able to rise to the occasion in a “big spot” again and again and again.

Is there something inherently unfair by judging the Cubs on three or four games of failure after winning 97 games? Yes, but if they were destined and deserving to really be remembered as a championship team, then they would win the championship. Although randomness and luck play their respective roles in these series (especially the five-gamers), the better team wins enough and great teams win the World Series enough, that we’re entitled to hold a team like the Cubs responsible for not being able to close the deal in the post-season. And that makes all the anger and bubbled over frustration in Wrigley Field the last two nights justifiable and perfectly understandable in this illusionary place of existence known as the “sports world.”

Whew.

White Sox up 2-1 as I type, and I'm looking forward to the Sox-Angels game tonight. Show me something, Anaheim.

I generally consider Midnite Vultures my least favorite Beck album by a comfortable margin. I rarely listen to it. Listening to it now, it's occurring to me how badly I may have underrated it all these years. There are no less than three songs (maybe four) that I would have no problem with someone putting in their Top 15 Beck tracks.

So much of the album is ridiculous and absurd (the opening verse of "Debra," [Ok, all of "Debra"] the lyrics in "Nicotine & Gravy," the instrumentation in a few of the tracks) . . . but my goodness there are plenty of moments that can stand side-by-side with anything he's ever done. "Pressure Zone," for example, is a song I almost never think about as being a great Beck track. And it is.

2008-10-01T14:35:00.002-04:00

For What It's Worth

There’s nothing more humbling than getting a sports’ prediction drastically wrong. 6-4 Twins? I was only off by 9 runs on the total, and picked the wrong victor. Oh well, I can stomach my error as it’s only being witnessed by a very, very small percentage of people in the universe. (Torse!)

So the ChiSox are in. By coincidence last night I mentioned the ’87 game between the Tigers and Jays on the last day of the season. The Twins/Sox game turned out to be very similar. Both starting pitchers were stellar; in particular, Danks’ stuff looked outstanding. The Twins are a punch-and-judy outfit to begin with, but still was a potent enough offense to score the 3rd most runs in the American League. Granted, most of the damage was done in the Metrodome (they had a huge disparity in R/G at home vs. the road), but Danks’ eight inning, two hit, no run performance was clutch pitching of the highest order.

In addition, both the ’87 game and last night had the lone run score on a solo home run to center. Herndon in the case of the former and Jim Thome’s absolute rocket in the latter.

The Twins’ best chance to score came in the 5th. After Cuddyer’s lead-off double and an advance on a fly ball, Brendan Harris hit a shallow fly to center. I was thinking, without having scouted Griffey’s arm of late but knowing the years of wear and tear on that body, “Got to send him.” Third base coach Scott Ulger did, and Griffey made a great throw, which Pierzynski caught low and to the 3rd base side of home plate. Cuddyer tried to bowl him over, but to no avail and the Twins never mustered a threat again.

It was also nice having an important game such as this one by over by 10:00 EST. The game time clocked in at a brisk 2:20.

Now we turn our attention to Philadelphia, Chicago and Anaheim, California respectively. Fittingly, it all begins on the first day of a new month – October. I will have the opportunity to tune into the first two games, and the start of the Boston/Angels game. I stress the word “start,” as although I’m intrigued by the match-up, 1:00 a.m. is just too late with work a-callin’ the next morning. We’ll see how long I last.

Predictions? For what they’re worth:

ALDS
Boston over Anaheim
Tampa over Chicago

NLDS
Cubs over Dodgers
Phillies over Brewers

ALCS
Boston over Tampa

NLCS
Phillies over Cubs

World Series
Phillies over Boston in seven games.

2008-09-30T19:19:00.003-04:00

Elimination Day

Taking a rooting interest out of the mix, I don’t think there is a better sporting event than an elimination game in baseball. Tonight, although not officially part of the “post-season,” the Twins play the White Sox in Chicago with the American League’s Central division title at stake: loser goes home, winner goes on to play the Rays on Thursday.

After a quick check on Retrosheet, tonight marks the 12th time in baseball history that two teams ended the regular season in a tie and needed an additional game (or games) to determine who plays on. Again from Retrosheet: The American League has always played a single game for this purpose, while the National League staged a best of three series through 1962, after which it switched to the single game format as well. These games are truly “playoff” games to be distinguished from the consistent MLB designation of “postseason” for the current multiple series procedure (Division Series, League Championship Series, World Series).

Tonight’s game is the 2nd one-game playoff of the decade, after last year’s Rockies/Padres match-up which determined the N.L. Wild Card in dramatic fashion, and the first to settle a division title since 1995 when the Mariners bombed the Angels behind Randy Johnson.

One game that I always confuse as being a one-game playoff, took place 21 years ago at Tigers Stadium. On the last day of the 1987 regular season, the Tigers (97-64) played the Blue Jays (96-65), with Toronto needing a win to force a one-game playoff. It didn’t happen. Larry Herndon’s home run in the bottom of the 2nd off Jimmy Key was the only run of the game as both starters went the distance in a classic 1-0 pitchers’ duel. For the Tigers, it was Frank Tanana who pitched the complete game shutout and clinched the A.L. East in the process.

For some reason, I always think of that game being on a Monday afternoon . . . it wasn’t, it was on a Sunday. ABC picked up that game that day (maybe Al Michaels on the play-by-play?), and I remember watching it from start-to-finish.

The most famous of the “play-in” games are probably the ’78 game in Fenway Park; the Giants/Dodgers game in ’51 and the Cleveland/Boston game in ’48 (the Denny Galehouse game).

Of the ones I’ve been around for, I didn’t watch much of the Padres/Rockies game last year, which is a shame because it was an absolute classic. I was in Philadelphia back in 1998 at a concert when the Giants played the Cubs at Wrigley to determine that year’s Wild Card winner in the N.L. I did watch the Mets/Reds tilt in ’99 when Al Leiter shut down Cincinnati completely, pitching a two-hit shutout in a game that was never a contest. So after more than two decades of watching baseball, tonight’s game is certainly a rarity and definitely the kind of game that I haven’t witnessed many times.

While I can’t guarantee being tuned into every pitch, the game will be on at all times, albeit in the background for at least part of the night. As I’m sure dads can relate to, the bedtime process is rarely a subtle one, and rarely quick and easy. Baseball takes a back seat under those circumstances.

Prediction? Twins 6, White Sox 4. I’ll buck public opinion, which seems to be tilted strongly towards Chicago. The Twins are 35-46 on the road this year, and 2-7 at U.S. Cellular Field, which seems to be the main motivation in picking the Sox tonight. Even with Danks going on short rest, the starters seem to cancel each other out as both don’t have good numbers of late or against their respective opponent.

When thinking that the winner of this game flies to Tampa after tonight, it’s amazing to think that the Rays are a very-winnable series away from playing in the ALCS.