Thursday, April 10, 2003
Six innings pitched. Eight earned runs. Twelve hits. A .429 average against, and a 12.00 ERA.
Watching Ramiro Mendoza pitch over the last six years, I learned a couple things about him. 1) He has a great sinker, and its effectiveness determines his success. 2) He can be used in many roles: a spot starter, long middle relief and set-up man. 3) He is not durable, and as a result should be used sparingly.
Mendoza has now pitched in five out of his team’s nine games, or 55.5% of his team’s games. Sure, it’s early but if this rate continues, he’ll pitch in about 90 games for the Red Sox this year. In the previous six seasons with New York, he averaged 44 appearances a season with several spot-starts (none since 2001) thrown in. So, let’s be liberal and say Mendoza could pitch, and be effective, in between 65 and 70 games, with a minimal amount of spot-starts, and an average of about an inning and a half a game.
At the current rate, Mendoza will not only lose his effectiveness, he will be a good bet to land on the DL by June.
I thought about this as I listened to Mendoza inherit a bases-loaded, two-out situation in Toronto last night. He threw a flat sinker that not only stayed high, but also tailed in for Vernon Wells to crank over the left-field wall for a grand slam. 6-3 Toronto at that point, and the Jays ended up winning their fifth straight, 10-5.
It was fun reading Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Globe after the Boston bullpen’s Opening Day implosion in Tampa Bay. The scribe has had fun since the off-season playing the role of Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer in response to the organization’s new statistical emphasis, spear-headed by Bill James and Theo Epstein: “You’re strange and frightening ways confuse me and disturb me…”
But in all seriousness for Boston fans, things aren’t so funny right now. Derek Lowe is off to a terrible start. Casey Fossum, cruising along for what seemed like a sure win, saw his control vanish him last night in the fifth. And then there is Mendoza and Co. – the infamous “bullpen by committee.” As Boston’s radio announcers Joe Castiglione and Jerry Trupiano pointed out last night, when do you stop saying, “It’s still early.”
By the way, Castiglione/Trupiano is one of the best broadcasting teams in baseball, and certainly the best of three teams in the Tri-State area.
I think the jury is still out on the viability of a “bullpen by committee,” and to be honest, I don’t think I’ve done enough work on the subject to give a clear-cut and informed opinion. I trust that Bill James and Theo Epstein and Billy Beane, and other baseball people who have commented favorably on the idea, have.
However, there is the element of real personalities and major league egos that get involved and stir up the well-constructed statistical pot. If one thing is certain about ballplayers, it is the fact they love routines. Some are more idiosyncratic than others, but I would say the majority have them some ritual or another to help them perform. They don’t like things to be out of whack in their universe. What players and managers and coaches in major league baseball today have come to know are bullpens that are not by committee. They are used to bullpens with clearly defined roles, and clear expectations for each of the pitchers. At this point, Boston’s bullpen has no roles, and as a result lacks cohesiveness right now. As several writers have pointed out, this leaves Grady Little open to criticism on a nightly basis. “Why didn’t you bring Embree in to face that batter?” “Do you think you’re over-working Mendoza?”
Sure, I believe sticks and stones break bones, and words don’t hurt, but Little and his players are human, and the Boston press can make for a long season. I still think the Red Sox are a very good team, with an exceptional offense. But things could ugly in Beantown real quick if that bullpen doesn’t start getting some outs.
A final thought on the bullpen-by-committee. As I noted, Bill James isn’t just sitting behind the curtain pushing buttons and having his followers carry out his statistical experiments. There are many successful executives that believe this is a great concept, Billy Beane prominent among them. Beane made a point before the season started that if it doesn’t work in Boston, it doesn’t mean the concept is bad. It just means they don’t have the players to make it work. The bottom line: if the Red Sox’ experiment goes kaput, the theory is going to take a major hit as well.
Last Pitch
Listening to the Sox-Jays game on the radio last night, SkyDome sounded like an empty airplane hanger. I’m reminded of the scene in Major League when Harry Doyle and his colorless analyst stand-up and clap and cheer to make noise to compensate for an empty stadium. Except last night, no one was making noise. As I saw on the telecast, there were a couple poor souls sitting in the upper deck behind home plate, and the crowd in the first deck started to thin out past the dugouts. Announced attendance was 13, 099. If you told me there weren’t more than 5,000 people in there, I would believe it.
Continuing on the theme of tough nights for ex-Yankee relievers, Mike Stanton had his first tough moment in a Mets uni last night. In a tie-game in Florida, he gave up a three-single, two-out rally and allowed the winning run to cross in the 9th. Is there anyone that doesn’t think Pudge is going to have a monster season for the Marlins? He made a vintage behind-the-runner-throw to pick-off Joe McEwing at first, delivered the game-winning hit and nearly tied the major league record for most consecutive walks. He had five on Tuesday, one in his first AB last night, and then struck out looking.
Following up: Greg Maddux’ awful start (worst since 1989) continued last night in Philadelphia: 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 H. I think Maddux could still turn things around and win 15 games. That would surprise no one. But you have to start wondering about his stuff, at his age. He never threw hard, but had such pinpoint control and such great tailing movement on his pitches, he never centered anything for a player to really get a good swing on. That’s not happening right now.
Seven afternoon games in baseball today, on a getaway day. The ugly: Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. The interesting: Kansas City at Detroit. The pretty good: Minnesota (Reed) at New York (Wells).
A name you don’t expect to be leading the American League in hitting on any day of the season: Brent Mayne.
Watching Ramiro Mendoza pitch over the last six years, I learned a couple things about him. 1) He has a great sinker, and its effectiveness determines his success. 2) He can be used in many roles: a spot starter, long middle relief and set-up man. 3) He is not durable, and as a result should be used sparingly.
Mendoza has now pitched in five out of his team’s nine games, or 55.5% of his team’s games. Sure, it’s early but if this rate continues, he’ll pitch in about 90 games for the Red Sox this year. In the previous six seasons with New York, he averaged 44 appearances a season with several spot-starts (none since 2001) thrown in. So, let’s be liberal and say Mendoza could pitch, and be effective, in between 65 and 70 games, with a minimal amount of spot-starts, and an average of about an inning and a half a game.
At the current rate, Mendoza will not only lose his effectiveness, he will be a good bet to land on the DL by June.
I thought about this as I listened to Mendoza inherit a bases-loaded, two-out situation in Toronto last night. He threw a flat sinker that not only stayed high, but also tailed in for Vernon Wells to crank over the left-field wall for a grand slam. 6-3 Toronto at that point, and the Jays ended up winning their fifth straight, 10-5.
It was fun reading Dan Shaughnessy’s column in the Globe after the Boston bullpen’s Opening Day implosion in Tampa Bay. The scribe has had fun since the off-season playing the role of Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer in response to the organization’s new statistical emphasis, spear-headed by Bill James and Theo Epstein: “You’re strange and frightening ways confuse me and disturb me…”
But in all seriousness for Boston fans, things aren’t so funny right now. Derek Lowe is off to a terrible start. Casey Fossum, cruising along for what seemed like a sure win, saw his control vanish him last night in the fifth. And then there is Mendoza and Co. – the infamous “bullpen by committee.” As Boston’s radio announcers Joe Castiglione and Jerry Trupiano pointed out last night, when do you stop saying, “It’s still early.”
By the way, Castiglione/Trupiano is one of the best broadcasting teams in baseball, and certainly the best of three teams in the Tri-State area.
I think the jury is still out on the viability of a “bullpen by committee,” and to be honest, I don’t think I’ve done enough work on the subject to give a clear-cut and informed opinion. I trust that Bill James and Theo Epstein and Billy Beane, and other baseball people who have commented favorably on the idea, have.
However, there is the element of real personalities and major league egos that get involved and stir up the well-constructed statistical pot. If one thing is certain about ballplayers, it is the fact they love routines. Some are more idiosyncratic than others, but I would say the majority have them some ritual or another to help them perform. They don’t like things to be out of whack in their universe. What players and managers and coaches in major league baseball today have come to know are bullpens that are not by committee. They are used to bullpens with clearly defined roles, and clear expectations for each of the pitchers. At this point, Boston’s bullpen has no roles, and as a result lacks cohesiveness right now. As several writers have pointed out, this leaves Grady Little open to criticism on a nightly basis. “Why didn’t you bring Embree in to face that batter?” “Do you think you’re over-working Mendoza?”
Sure, I believe sticks and stones break bones, and words don’t hurt, but Little and his players are human, and the Boston press can make for a long season. I still think the Red Sox are a very good team, with an exceptional offense. But things could ugly in Beantown real quick if that bullpen doesn’t start getting some outs.
A final thought on the bullpen-by-committee. As I noted, Bill James isn’t just sitting behind the curtain pushing buttons and having his followers carry out his statistical experiments. There are many successful executives that believe this is a great concept, Billy Beane prominent among them. Beane made a point before the season started that if it doesn’t work in Boston, it doesn’t mean the concept is bad. It just means they don’t have the players to make it work. The bottom line: if the Red Sox’ experiment goes kaput, the theory is going to take a major hit as well.
Last Pitch
Listening to the Sox-Jays game on the radio last night, SkyDome sounded like an empty airplane hanger. I’m reminded of the scene in Major League when Harry Doyle and his colorless analyst stand-up and clap and cheer to make noise to compensate for an empty stadium. Except last night, no one was making noise. As I saw on the telecast, there were a couple poor souls sitting in the upper deck behind home plate, and the crowd in the first deck started to thin out past the dugouts. Announced attendance was 13, 099. If you told me there weren’t more than 5,000 people in there, I would believe it.
Continuing on the theme of tough nights for ex-Yankee relievers, Mike Stanton had his first tough moment in a Mets uni last night. In a tie-game in Florida, he gave up a three-single, two-out rally and allowed the winning run to cross in the 9th. Is there anyone that doesn’t think Pudge is going to have a monster season for the Marlins? He made a vintage behind-the-runner-throw to pick-off Joe McEwing at first, delivered the game-winning hit and nearly tied the major league record for most consecutive walks. He had five on Tuesday, one in his first AB last night, and then struck out looking.
Following up: Greg Maddux’ awful start (worst since 1989) continued last night in Philadelphia: 5 1/3 IP, 7 ER, 12 H. I think Maddux could still turn things around and win 15 games. That would surprise no one. But you have to start wondering about his stuff, at his age. He never threw hard, but had such pinpoint control and such great tailing movement on his pitches, he never centered anything for a player to really get a good swing on. That’s not happening right now.
Seven afternoon games in baseball today, on a getaway day. The ugly: Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. The interesting: Kansas City at Detroit. The pretty good: Minnesota (Reed) at New York (Wells).
A name you don’t expect to be leading the American League in hitting on any day of the season: Brent Mayne.
