Friday, June 26, 2009

Team in Focus
Detroit Tigers
Edition

The team with the longest winning streak in baseball on the morning of June 26 is the Detroit Tigers. After completing a sweep of the Chicago Cubs yesterday afternoon at home, Detroit has now won seven in a row and has a cushy five-game lead in the A.L. Central over the Twins.

The Tigers started the month in a bad way, getting swept at home by Boston and dropping the first of a three-game set vs. the Angels. Since then, however, they're 13-6 and that includes a blip when they lost four straight from June 13-17.

As is typically the case when a team goes on a week-long or longer winning streak, it's a case of their pitching & offense coming together. Over the last seven days they lead the American League in runs and are tied for 2nd in runs allowed with 18. The three teams they've played in this stretch are all from the N.L. Central: St. Louis (1); Milwaukee (3) and the Cubbies (3).

It's the Tigers second seven-game winning streak of the season. The other came from May 15-22 and included three-game sweeps against Oakland & Texas at home and a win against Colorado.

In my mind, I've grouped the Tigers in with the Mets to this point in the season as both teams are talented but enigmatic. The Mets seem likely to dance around the .500 mark for the near timeframe, due to both injuries and their overall persistent inconsistencies. The Tigers have moved beyond such company, at least for the time being, as they're now ten games over .500 for the first time this season.

Overall, the Tigers are third in the American League in runs allowed. However, over the last 30 days, they're third from the bottom. Better than only Cleveland and Kansas City.

Minnesota, who I expect to stay within shouting distance of the Tigers for now and make a legitimate run at them later, is 2nd in the league in RA in the same timeframe.

Top 5 - RA American League Last 30 Days
80 Seattle
97 Minnesota
100 Boston
102 Tampa
107 New York

In the same timeframe, Detroit is 8th in the league in runs scored. Granted, "the last 30 days" encompasses that awful series vs. the Red Sox in which they were trounced 26-9 over the three games, but still . . . I'd expect a little better showing for the Tigers. In the other four-game losing streak this month they were outscored 30-11.

Looking at the entire season, Detroit is a pretty good defensive team, but not great. They're 6th in the league in Defensive Efficiency and 6th in the league in BABIP.

Detroit's run margin is +34. Minnesota's is +23. Based on those numbers you'd expect them to be closer than five games.

Detroit's a good team. They have three guys offensively who are having very good to excellent seasons in Cabrera, Inge and Granderson. They have a solid, stable rotation with three starters having very good to excellent years in Jackson, Verlander and Porcello. They have a good, but not great, closer. LIke I said they have a good defense, but nothing that jumps off the page. And I think we all like Jim Leyland as a manager.

Maybe it's that Boston series, but I still put them a peg below the Red Sox, Tampa and yes, even the Yankees. And if we're looking at run differential, then you have to consider Toronto who's at +47 compared to Detroit's +34.

It's a well-balanced team. I don't expect them to be in the World Series, but at the same time I wouldn't be shocked if they gave their first round opponent (possibly the Wild Card winner from the East) absolute fits in a short series.

Postscript: Detroit and Minnesota play July 3-5 at Minnesota; August 7-9 in Detroit; and twice in September: 18-20 at Minny, 28-10/1 at Comerica.

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