Wednesday, June 13, 2007
No Worrying in Flushing Allowed
The house is quiet, and the voice of Vin Scully is piping through my laptop's speakers.
The Mets are in Los Angeles trying to save face, grab a game in this series and end a four-game losing streak.
Brad Penny is throwing for the Dodgers, and he's been exceptional this year: 7-1, 2.25 ERA. Winning tonight won't be an easy task for the Mets. Fortunately, New York sends their hottest pitcher, the surprising Jorge Sosa (6-1, 2.64 ERA), to the mound. A game that has 2-1 or 3-2 written all over it.
I'm not sure what to make of the Mets' current streak . . . as of this date, as of this time at night, I'm not making much of it. I still think they're the best team in the N.L. East, and will win the division. And if I had to pick one team to make the World Series out of the senior circuit, it would be the Mets.
They're beseiged with injuries right now, and are in a team funk, not dissimilar to where the Yankees were in late May. But I think the Mets will bounce out of it, if not tonight then very possibly at Yankee Stadium this weekend; I think they're going to have a good showing in Subway Series Take 2.
The Mets offensive numbers are anemic this month, .243/.294/.373. I don't need me to tell you: they're a better team than that.
In fact, when comparing the Phillies to the Mets for the first two weeks of June, the differences are striking. I pick the Phillies, because they have been the hottest team in the N.L. East, if not the entire N.L. of late, and are now sitting just 2.5 games behind the Mets, pending tonight's game.
The Phillies have scored 52 runs (2nd in NL in that timeframe) to the Mets' 37 (15th) , and have a .750 OPS to the Mets' .667.
The Mets' pitching numbers also rank near the bottom of the National League since June 1st. Their 5.05 team ERA is better than only Pittsburgh and St. Louis.
Sosa, who was the winning pitcher in the Mets' last win on Friday night, is perfect through two, and the Mets are up 1-0 heading to the 3rd.
The Mets had the second-best ERA in the NL in May, 3.69 to San Diego's glittering 2.17, and had a league-best .220 average against.
This was after an April when the Mets pitchers threw to a 2.96 ERA, which was tops in the N.L.
In terms of runs scored, they were 3rd and 5th in the N.L. in April and May respectively.
From listening to WFAN on a daily basis, I sense the aggravation in the voices of the Mets' fans. I can't blame them; it's been a crappy two weeks of baseball.
But I'm not about to throw two months of solid baseball away on the account of two poor weeks when they're dealing with injuries and the toughest part of the schedule they'll have this year.
Some other random observations while perusing the statistical rankings from June:
Here's an oddity. St. Louis, buoyed by a league-leading 20 home runs has an .816 OPS, 30 points better than the next team. But their 49 runs scored is only good enough to have them tied for 5th in that category.
My quick, first-glance explanation? Their OBP is .311, good for only 9th in the N.L. My guess is they've had too many solo shots, and not enough three-run shots. A good example why the statistical gurus of the baseball world value OBP by a decisive margin over SLG.
The Cubs are 11 for 11 in stolen bases the first two weeks of June. I don't know how much that has to do with their mini-resurgence of late, but it can't hurt.
The best K-rate in June? The Dodgers. 8.46/9 IP. The worst? The Padres at 4.63.
San Diego has the best ERA in the National League this year at 3.02, 62 point ahead of the Diamondbacks and Mets. Yet their K-rate for the season is average, if not a little below average: 6.44, 10th in the National League. You think they're helped by their home park?
I'm not saying that the teams with the best ERAs in their respective leagues have to be #1 in strikeouts. Or #2 or #3, for that matter. But I'm going to venture that it's unusual for a team to be so far in front in the ERA rankings and be below the league average in K/9.
It also tells me they must be a pretty good defensive team as well.
Moving to the A.L. while my eyes are still staying open . . .
Detroit is having a ridiculous June offensively. First in the A.L. in runs, hits, triples, total bases, batting average, OBP and SLG.
The top 5 offensive teams for June so far? Detroit, New York, Tampa, Seattle and Los Angeles.
The top 5 defensive/pitching teams for June? Oakland (with a jaw-dropping 1.73 ERA), Kansas City (surprise), Boston (no surprise), and then a bunch of teams about the same: New York, Los Angeles, Detroit and Toronto.
Think the Chicago defense is making Ozzie Guillen pull his hair out?
The White Sox are throwing to basically the same ERA this month as the Tigers, 4.59 to 4.57. But the Sox have allowed 13 more runs than the Tigers in this timeframe, 60 to 47 - that's basically an extra run per day, and almost all of them can be blamed on the defense, i.e. unearned runs.
Will Texas ever be able to pitch? 6.70 ERA in June, last in the American League.
The Devil Rays are the reverse-mirror image of the Padres. Does that make sense?
They lead the A.L. in strikeouts with 104; that's 14 more than Seattle. But they are next to last in ERA at 5.27.
Why is Tampa's ERA so high this month?
As I'm looking across the board, I'm not sure I can answer that.
My gut reaction was "Walks, it must be the walks" to explain their poor ERA despite the boatload of Ks. But it's not that; their walk numbers are pretty good, t-5th and right around league average.
Alright, home runs. They must be giving up the long ball. Not that either; their 11 dingers in June is dead-on league average.
Their batting average against? League average. .264
On-base? .333, four points above league average. Same with SLG: their .422 isn't great, but only 8 points above average.
From what I can gather from my crude observations, Tampa should be throwing to an ERA almost right on league average for this month, 4.34, not a full run higher.
Maybe a market correction is on the way. Maybe it's just because the words "Devil Rays" are on their uniforms.
Dodgers up 3-1 in the 6th, and I'm going to pack it in for the night. Charlie Steiner ain't the same as Vin Scully.
The house is quiet, and the voice of Vin Scully is piping through my laptop's speakers.
The Mets are in Los Angeles trying to save face, grab a game in this series and end a four-game losing streak.
Brad Penny is throwing for the Dodgers, and he's been exceptional this year: 7-1, 2.25 ERA. Winning tonight won't be an easy task for the Mets. Fortunately, New York sends their hottest pitcher, the surprising Jorge Sosa (6-1, 2.64 ERA), to the mound. A game that has 2-1 or 3-2 written all over it.
I'm not sure what to make of the Mets' current streak . . . as of this date, as of this time at night, I'm not making much of it. I still think they're the best team in the N.L. East, and will win the division. And if I had to pick one team to make the World Series out of the senior circuit, it would be the Mets.
They're beseiged with injuries right now, and are in a team funk, not dissimilar to where the Yankees were in late May. But I think the Mets will bounce out of it, if not tonight then very possibly at Yankee Stadium this weekend; I think they're going to have a good showing in Subway Series Take 2.
The Mets offensive numbers are anemic this month, .243/.294/.373. I don't need me to tell you: they're a better team than that.
In fact, when comparing the Phillies to the Mets for the first two weeks of June, the differences are striking. I pick the Phillies, because they have been the hottest team in the N.L. East, if not the entire N.L. of late, and are now sitting just 2.5 games behind the Mets, pending tonight's game.
The Phillies have scored 52 runs (2nd in NL in that timeframe) to the Mets' 37 (15th) , and have a .750 OPS to the Mets' .667.
The Mets' pitching numbers also rank near the bottom of the National League since June 1st. Their 5.05 team ERA is better than only Pittsburgh and St. Louis.
Sosa, who was the winning pitcher in the Mets' last win on Friday night, is perfect through two, and the Mets are up 1-0 heading to the 3rd.
The Mets had the second-best ERA in the NL in May, 3.69 to San Diego's glittering 2.17, and had a league-best .220 average against.
This was after an April when the Mets pitchers threw to a 2.96 ERA, which was tops in the N.L.
In terms of runs scored, they were 3rd and 5th in the N.L. in April and May respectively.
From listening to WFAN on a daily basis, I sense the aggravation in the voices of the Mets' fans. I can't blame them; it's been a crappy two weeks of baseball.
But I'm not about to throw two months of solid baseball away on the account of two poor weeks when they're dealing with injuries and the toughest part of the schedule they'll have this year.
Some other random observations while perusing the statistical rankings from June:
Here's an oddity. St. Louis, buoyed by a league-leading 20 home runs has an .816 OPS, 30 points better than the next team. But their 49 runs scored is only good enough to have them tied for 5th in that category.
My quick, first-glance explanation? Their OBP is .311, good for only 9th in the N.L. My guess is they've had too many solo shots, and not enough three-run shots. A good example why the statistical gurus of the baseball world value OBP by a decisive margin over SLG.
The Cubs are 11 for 11 in stolen bases the first two weeks of June. I don't know how much that has to do with their mini-resurgence of late, but it can't hurt.
The best K-rate in June? The Dodgers. 8.46/9 IP. The worst? The Padres at 4.63.
San Diego has the best ERA in the National League this year at 3.02, 62 point ahead of the Diamondbacks and Mets. Yet their K-rate for the season is average, if not a little below average: 6.44, 10th in the National League. You think they're helped by their home park?
I'm not saying that the teams with the best ERAs in their respective leagues have to be #1 in strikeouts. Or #2 or #3, for that matter. But I'm going to venture that it's unusual for a team to be so far in front in the ERA rankings and be below the league average in K/9.
It also tells me they must be a pretty good defensive team as well.
Moving to the A.L. while my eyes are still staying open . . .
Detroit is having a ridiculous June offensively. First in the A.L. in runs, hits, triples, total bases, batting average, OBP and SLG.
The top 5 offensive teams for June so far? Detroit, New York, Tampa, Seattle and Los Angeles.
The top 5 defensive/pitching teams for June? Oakland (with a jaw-dropping 1.73 ERA), Kansas City (surprise), Boston (no surprise), and then a bunch of teams about the same: New York, Los Angeles, Detroit and Toronto.
Think the Chicago defense is making Ozzie Guillen pull his hair out?
The White Sox are throwing to basically the same ERA this month as the Tigers, 4.59 to 4.57. But the Sox have allowed 13 more runs than the Tigers in this timeframe, 60 to 47 - that's basically an extra run per day, and almost all of them can be blamed on the defense, i.e. unearned runs.
Will Texas ever be able to pitch? 6.70 ERA in June, last in the American League.
The Devil Rays are the reverse-mirror image of the Padres. Does that make sense?
They lead the A.L. in strikeouts with 104; that's 14 more than Seattle. But they are next to last in ERA at 5.27.
Why is Tampa's ERA so high this month?
As I'm looking across the board, I'm not sure I can answer that.
My gut reaction was "Walks, it must be the walks" to explain their poor ERA despite the boatload of Ks. But it's not that; their walk numbers are pretty good, t-5th and right around league average.
Alright, home runs. They must be giving up the long ball. Not that either; their 11 dingers in June is dead-on league average.
Their batting average against? League average. .264
On-base? .333, four points above league average. Same with SLG: their .422 isn't great, but only 8 points above average.
From what I can gather from my crude observations, Tampa should be throwing to an ERA almost right on league average for this month, 4.34, not a full run higher.
Maybe a market correction is on the way. Maybe it's just because the words "Devil Rays" are on their uniforms.
Dodgers up 3-1 in the 6th, and I'm going to pack it in for the night. Charlie Steiner ain't the same as Vin Scully.
