Wednesday, July 07, 2004
A Cease Fire
From a post on the MLB Center board:
Z, I have never been crazy about Bartolo Colon. Granted, up to this point in time it's mainly an objective reaction, but I have always thought he was over-rated. Was never crazy about his mound presence, and felt that he would drift from having "electric stuff" to "o.k. stuff" too quickly to chalk it up to fatigue, or simple ineffectiveness.
For the most part, however there hasn't too much to pick on from a statistics standpoint. A shoe-in to pitch 200+ innings, ERA numbers easily better than the average, good strikeout numbers, and while pitching for pretty good teams along the way has been a lock for about 15 wins per season.
I've only seen Colon pitch a couple of times this year, so I'm not the best to comment on any possible injury or the effect of his weight. Although, now that he's on the other side of 30, I can't imagine those 250+ lbs. that he carries to the mound with him each start are helping him.
Well, after taking a look at his close stats for the first time this season, I'm shocked at just how terrible his numbers are. His record says he's 5-8 with a 6.57 ERA. I agree, that's pretty bad. But what is staggering is how hard he's getting hit.
ESPN.com provides nifty little projections for each player, foretelling how they'll perform as a whole this season based on their current rates of performance. Take a guess how many home runs Bartolo Colon is on pace to give up?
Hint: It would easily break the record for most home runs allowed by a pitcher in one season.
Answer: 56.
Fifty-six home runs! That's an incredible amount, to say the least. The top 5 dinger totals for pitchers this year:
1. Colon, 26
2. Matt Morris, 24
3. Moyer, 22
4. Jose Acevedo, 20
5. Milton and Anderson and May of Kansas City, 19
If you're wondering who gave up the most home runs in one season, it was actually a pitcher of some renown. In 1986, Bert Blyleven had one interesting statistical season. In 36 starts for the Twins, he went 17-16 with 16 complete games. He threw a whopping 271+ innings, gave up 262 hits, allowed the 50 home runs, walked 58 and struck out 215. He also pitched to a 4.01 ERA.
It's hard to pin anything down as "typical" for a guy who had a 22-year career, but on the surface, that was a pretty typical Blyleven season. A bazillion innings, a win-loss record right around .500, good ERA, good strikeout numbers and a fair share of home runs. Although '86 was his high-water mark, or low-water mark, for giving up home runs, he did give up 46 homers the following year. And he was at 20 or more 10 times.
As Blyleven, and other guys too like Schilling, prove, home runs aren't necessarily a death knell for pitchers. Their amount of damage, or impact, is based on other factors like how many guys are on base, and the game situation.
And in Colon's case, home runs are only part of the story. His OBP-against is one of the worst among all qualified starters in baseball: .356. His SLG-against of .573 is even worse, thanks not only to the home runs but to 28 doubles. The SLG ranks 95th out of 96 major league starting pitchers. If there is a silver lining to this cloud, I just don't see it.
There's also nothing to suggest that there is a magical turnaround awaiting Colon. Although his K/9 rate is a tad higher than last year, and his highest since 2001 actually, the long-term trend has not been good.
Colon's K/9 Rates
1997: 6.32
1998: 6.97
1999: 7.07
2000: 10.15
2001: 8.14
2002: 5.75
2003: 6.43
2004: 6.66
I spent a little time during the off-season looking at strikeout rates for current pitchers. There are a couple of general trends I noticed. The relevant one for this case: it generally holds true that once a pitcher's K/9 rate starts declining, it is very difficult to bring it back up. Sure, there will be little blips from season-to-season, but overall it's a relative rarity.
The days of Bartolo Colon having tremendous strikeout rates appear to be over. Not that those "days" lasted very long... And it's tough for a defense to help out a pitcher when he's getting sluggled all over the park.
What's the answer? I'll try and answer that with a question:
Colon has one of the lowest GB/FB ratios in baseball. Can a predominantly flyball pitcher totally change his approach? I don't have access to this statistical field, but have guys with low GB/FB ratios, who have been struggling, been able to change their tune, stop throwing the ball high in the strike zone (i.e. going for strikeouts), and start inducing more ground balls?
Unless we're dealing with an injury, then what's needed is a total revamping of Colon's approach on the mound. Maybe he thinks he has the stuff to blow people away, but proof is there that the stuff is fading away.
Baseball history is littered with guys who have resuscitated their careers by changing their approach on the mound, i.e. power pitchers who became finesse pitchers: Tommy John and Frank Tanana are two names that are bandied about all the time in this regard. And like them, most guys who change their pitching styles do so because of injury. They have no other choice. For guys who aren't injured, I assume the change in mindset is a much harder leap to make.
How close is Bartolo Colon, who has reared back and fired all his life, to saying, "I have to change my approach. I have to back off on going for strikeouts, and become more of a strategic pitcher. I have to let my defense, specifically my infield defense make more plays behind me."
Some guys would never do it, or can't do it. For Colon, while difficult to stomach (pun intended), it might end up being his only option.
This column is running in the MLB Center Forum, "Baseball Writing." You can access the entire forum here. Or the entire Message Board here.
From a post on the MLB Center board:
What happened to Bartolo Colon? I doubt his weight has grown too much since last year or the year before (a lot of people like to point out his weight as reason to his struggles)... but his pitching has just been awful. For a pitcher people concidered the best on the free agent market last season he has been the worst of the bunch. Will he turn it around or are the Angels stuck with 5 years of "Fartolo"?
Thanks,
Z
Z, I have never been crazy about Bartolo Colon. Granted, up to this point in time it's mainly an objective reaction, but I have always thought he was over-rated. Was never crazy about his mound presence, and felt that he would drift from having "electric stuff" to "o.k. stuff" too quickly to chalk it up to fatigue, or simple ineffectiveness.
For the most part, however there hasn't too much to pick on from a statistics standpoint. A shoe-in to pitch 200+ innings, ERA numbers easily better than the average, good strikeout numbers, and while pitching for pretty good teams along the way has been a lock for about 15 wins per season.
I've only seen Colon pitch a couple of times this year, so I'm not the best to comment on any possible injury or the effect of his weight. Although, now that he's on the other side of 30, I can't imagine those 250+ lbs. that he carries to the mound with him each start are helping him.
Well, after taking a look at his close stats for the first time this season, I'm shocked at just how terrible his numbers are. His record says he's 5-8 with a 6.57 ERA. I agree, that's pretty bad. But what is staggering is how hard he's getting hit.
ESPN.com provides nifty little projections for each player, foretelling how they'll perform as a whole this season based on their current rates of performance. Take a guess how many home runs Bartolo Colon is on pace to give up?
Hint: It would easily break the record for most home runs allowed by a pitcher in one season.
Answer: 56.
Fifty-six home runs! That's an incredible amount, to say the least. The top 5 dinger totals for pitchers this year:
1. Colon, 26
2. Matt Morris, 24
3. Moyer, 22
4. Jose Acevedo, 20
5. Milton and Anderson and May of Kansas City, 19
If you're wondering who gave up the most home runs in one season, it was actually a pitcher of some renown. In 1986, Bert Blyleven had one interesting statistical season. In 36 starts for the Twins, he went 17-16 with 16 complete games. He threw a whopping 271+ innings, gave up 262 hits, allowed the 50 home runs, walked 58 and struck out 215. He also pitched to a 4.01 ERA.
It's hard to pin anything down as "typical" for a guy who had a 22-year career, but on the surface, that was a pretty typical Blyleven season. A bazillion innings, a win-loss record right around .500, good ERA, good strikeout numbers and a fair share of home runs. Although '86 was his high-water mark, or low-water mark, for giving up home runs, he did give up 46 homers the following year. And he was at 20 or more 10 times.
As Blyleven, and other guys too like Schilling, prove, home runs aren't necessarily a death knell for pitchers. Their amount of damage, or impact, is based on other factors like how many guys are on base, and the game situation.
And in Colon's case, home runs are only part of the story. His OBP-against is one of the worst among all qualified starters in baseball: .356. His SLG-against of .573 is even worse, thanks not only to the home runs but to 28 doubles. The SLG ranks 95th out of 96 major league starting pitchers. If there is a silver lining to this cloud, I just don't see it.
There's also nothing to suggest that there is a magical turnaround awaiting Colon. Although his K/9 rate is a tad higher than last year, and his highest since 2001 actually, the long-term trend has not been good.
Colon's K/9 Rates
1997: 6.32
1998: 6.97
1999: 7.07
2000: 10.15
2001: 8.14
2002: 5.75
2003: 6.43
2004: 6.66
I spent a little time during the off-season looking at strikeout rates for current pitchers. There are a couple of general trends I noticed. The relevant one for this case: it generally holds true that once a pitcher's K/9 rate starts declining, it is very difficult to bring it back up. Sure, there will be little blips from season-to-season, but overall it's a relative rarity.
The days of Bartolo Colon having tremendous strikeout rates appear to be over. Not that those "days" lasted very long... And it's tough for a defense to help out a pitcher when he's getting sluggled all over the park.
What's the answer? I'll try and answer that with a question:
Colon has one of the lowest GB/FB ratios in baseball. Can a predominantly flyball pitcher totally change his approach? I don't have access to this statistical field, but have guys with low GB/FB ratios, who have been struggling, been able to change their tune, stop throwing the ball high in the strike zone (i.e. going for strikeouts), and start inducing more ground balls?
Unless we're dealing with an injury, then what's needed is a total revamping of Colon's approach on the mound. Maybe he thinks he has the stuff to blow people away, but proof is there that the stuff is fading away.
Baseball history is littered with guys who have resuscitated their careers by changing their approach on the mound, i.e. power pitchers who became finesse pitchers: Tommy John and Frank Tanana are two names that are bandied about all the time in this regard. And like them, most guys who change their pitching styles do so because of injury. They have no other choice. For guys who aren't injured, I assume the change in mindset is a much harder leap to make.
How close is Bartolo Colon, who has reared back and fired all his life, to saying, "I have to change my approach. I have to back off on going for strikeouts, and become more of a strategic pitcher. I have to let my defense, specifically my infield defense make more plays behind me."
Some guys would never do it, or can't do it. For Colon, while difficult to stomach (pun intended), it might end up being his only option.
This column is running in the MLB Center Forum, "Baseball Writing." You can access the entire forum here. Or the entire Message Board here.
