Sunday, August 08, 2004
Something Happened on the Way to a Classic September
Let's pretend we pulled a Rip Van Winkle at the All Star break. We drifted off into a month-long slumber, assured that a dramatic finish to the 2004 baseball season awaited us on the other end. We took a final glance at those first-half standings and saw these records:
AL East
New York 55-31 -
Boston 48-38 7
AL Central
Chicago 46-38 -
Minnesota 47-40 1/2
AL West
Texas 49-37 -
Oakland 47-39 2
Anaheim 47-40 2.5
NL East
Philadelphia 46-41 -
Atlanta 45-42 1
Florida 45-43 1.5
New York 44-43 2
NL Central
St. Louis 54-33 -
Chicago 47-40 7
NL West
Los Angeles 48-38 -
San Fran. 49-40 1/2
San Diego 47-41 2
In summation, two division races were considered over, the AL East and the NL Central. However, the other four divisions were extremely close. And when you throw in the two Wild Card races, it was hard not to have hope for a great end to the season.
In the AL, taking the division leaders out of the equation, there were seven teams within a 7-game range in the loss column:
Boston, 38
Oakland, 39
Anaheim, 40
Minnesota, 40
Cleveland, 45
Detroit, 45
Tampa Bay, 45
Seven games is a lot to make up in the second half, but not impossible; so I included the Tribe, Tigers and D-Rays. There were four teams counting their chips for next season: Toronto, Baltimore, K.C. and Seattle.
In the NL, there were ten teams within a 6-game loss column range in the Wild Card hunt:
Chicago, 40
San Francisco, 40
Cincinnati, 41
Milwaukee, 41
San Diego, 41
Atlanta, 42
Florida, 43
New York, 43
Houston, 44
Pittsburgh, 47
Three teams had called it a season: Montreal, Colorado and Arizona.
By my count, that tallies two playoff spots that virtually had been decided, leaving six spots open. And 21 teams were still alive vying for those spots. 21 teams -- that seems like an unusually high amount...
In any case, we were set up for the second half about as good as we could expect.
It's been a tick under a month since the All-Star break (July 12-14), and we have a little under two months left in the regular season. As the delusional and delinquent Casper muttered through his fog at the end of the movie Kids: "Jesus, what the hell happened?"
(Overall Record, followed by post-break record)
AL East
New York 70-39 (15-8) -
Boston 48-38 (11-11) 10.5
We knew it was over going into the break, but now the Yankees have their biggest lead on the Sox in three years. Considering the pre-season hype for this divison race, it ranks as one of the bigger "coulda been"s in recent memory.
AL Central
Minnesota 47-40 (15-7) -
Cleveland 57-54 (15-9) 6
Chicago 46-38 (8-15) 7
Kudos to Cleveland for making a nice push to assert themselves in the Wild Card, but this divison feels like it's done. Turning point: Minnesota walking into Chicago and taking three straight from the pale hose, July 27-29. In the last 20 games (thanks to dougstats.com) the Twins have gained 8 games on Chicago.
From an offensive standpoint, there hasn't been that much of a statisical difference between the Twins and White Sox. In the last 20 games, the Twins have scored seven more runs and have slight advantages in OBP and SLG, but nothing glaring.
The pitching stats tell a bit of a different story:
ERA
Twins: 2.99 (best in the American League)
Chicago: 4.87 (11th)
Strikeouts
Twins: 135 (5th)
Chicago: 116 (11th)
HRs Allowed
Minnesota: 16 (fewest in the AL)
White Sox: 24 (t-6th)
Another tidbit on the Twins: they've been runnin' fools on the basepaths of late, stealing 26 bases in 20 games. That's easily the most in baseball in that span; the Mets are 2nd with 21.
AL West
Oakland 47-39 (14-9) -
Texas 49-37 (11-11) 1/2
Anaheim 47-40 (13-10) 1.5
Alright, now we got something. Anaheim, with a recent slate of games that included the Mariners and Royals, are 7-3 in their last 10 and have established themselves as a serious player in the division race again. Looking ahead to the rest of the month, they have five more games against Kansas City, three vs. Baltimore, three vs. Detroit and three vs. Tampa. Their other seven games of the month are against NY, Minnesota and Boston. Still, that's a very favorable schedule and bodes well for them.
Oakland and Texas have been see-sawing nearly every day since the break, with Oakland's 4-2 record against the Rangers in July being the difference right now. I still think Oakland is going to win the division, but clearly there is nothing that's going to be a cinch about it.
Wild Card summary: I put seven teams (not counting the division leaders) into the Wild Card mix at the break, conceding that seven games was a hefty range.
In cutting it down to a 6-game loss column range:
Texas, 48
Boston, 49
Anaheim, 50
Chicago, 53
Cleveland, 54
Cleveland has been a great story this half, with a 15-9 record. Here are their AL offensive rankings in their last 20:
Runs, 1st
Batting Average, 1st
Doubles, 1st
OBP, 1st
SLG, 1st
Fewest Strikeouts, 1st
They're still giving up runs in the sime timeframe, as their 4.80 ERA can attest to. However, the inevitable "lean years" that followed their great run that last ten years, don't look like they're lasting as long as the franchise's other drought(s).
Tampa Bay and Detroit have been lost to the Wild Card chase.
I'll say the AL's interest meter is in 50/50 shape, with the White Sox's nosedive a major factor in the downgrade. Two divisions are now sealed. One great race in the West remais, and 3-5 teams vying for the Wild Card, depending on 1) how seriously you take Cleveland and 2) if the White Sox are going to show any life down the stretch.
Onto the National League, where the pickings are a bit thinner...
NL East
Atlanta 62-47 (17-5) -
Philadelphia 57-53 (11-12) 5.5
Florida 55-54 (10-11) 7
New York 52-57 (8-14) 10
How fast did this division race fall apart? About as fast as you can say "Bobby Cox & Leo Mazzone." I wrote sometime last week about the Braves' amazing July numbers. They're just slightly off the pace statistically so far this month, but haven't suffered it in their record (5-1 in August). The rest of the division, a division that at one time was predicted to say bunched tightly for the rest of the season, has either muddled around for the past month, or simply fallen apart.
NL Central
St. Louis 71-38 (17-5) -
Chicago 61-49 (14-9) 10.5
Like Boston, the Cubs' hole in the divisional race has only worsened since the All Star break. Unlike the BoSox, they have established a firm grip on the Wild Card. I'm not a Cardinals historian by any stretch, and without looking through the records, I have to believe they're having one of the Top 5 or so regular seasons in the history of the franchise. Their run margin stands at +136, and seems to get better by the day.
NL West
Los Angeles 65-44 (17-6) -
San Diego 59-51 (12-10) 6.5
San Fran. 59-53 (10-13) 7.5
Like the NL East, this race has turned so quickly and decisively, it's hard to believe. I mean we're talking about the Dodgers. The heretofore model-of-inconsistency Dodgers. Of course, things are changing in Dodgertown, whether the L.A. press understands sabermetrics or not.
In the last 20 games, the Dodgers' OBP & SLG numbers are good for 4th and 3rd respectively in the NL. Their ERA ranks second behind the Braves at 3.36. Oh yeah, and since that trade that garnered some attention, they are 6-2.
Since I used a 6-game range to tally the remaining AL Wild Card contenders, I'll do the same for the NL:
Chicago, 49
San Diego, 51
Philadelphia, 53
San Francisco, 53
Florida, 54
Houston, 55
One more additional team in the mix than in the AL, but certainly not as promising a race. If the Cubs continue their recent performance level, you can bag this race as well. And unfortunately, the Wild Card race is the only thing the NL has to hang its hat on right now. The three division races look as sealed as Grammy envelopes.
Maybe a Dodgers collapse will make things more enticing for the last month-plus of the season (I'm certainly not holding my breath in regards to the Braves). Maybe Cleveland will spice things up as the surprise team of the year and make a September playoff push. Maybe this and maybe that. The bottom line is that in less than one month's time, baseball has seen three more divisions put to bed in addition to the two that were already done.
I'm one division race and a Wild Card short of saying, "Wake me in October..."
Let's pretend we pulled a Rip Van Winkle at the All Star break. We drifted off into a month-long slumber, assured that a dramatic finish to the 2004 baseball season awaited us on the other end. We took a final glance at those first-half standings and saw these records:
AL East
New York 55-31 -
Boston 48-38 7
AL Central
Chicago 46-38 -
Minnesota 47-40 1/2
AL West
Texas 49-37 -
Oakland 47-39 2
Anaheim 47-40 2.5
NL East
Philadelphia 46-41 -
Atlanta 45-42 1
Florida 45-43 1.5
New York 44-43 2
NL Central
St. Louis 54-33 -
Chicago 47-40 7
NL West
Los Angeles 48-38 -
San Fran. 49-40 1/2
San Diego 47-41 2
In summation, two division races were considered over, the AL East and the NL Central. However, the other four divisions were extremely close. And when you throw in the two Wild Card races, it was hard not to have hope for a great end to the season.
In the AL, taking the division leaders out of the equation, there were seven teams within a 7-game range in the loss column:
Boston, 38
Oakland, 39
Anaheim, 40
Minnesota, 40
Cleveland, 45
Detroit, 45
Tampa Bay, 45
Seven games is a lot to make up in the second half, but not impossible; so I included the Tribe, Tigers and D-Rays. There were four teams counting their chips for next season: Toronto, Baltimore, K.C. and Seattle.
In the NL, there were ten teams within a 6-game loss column range in the Wild Card hunt:
Chicago, 40
San Francisco, 40
Cincinnati, 41
Milwaukee, 41
San Diego, 41
Atlanta, 42
Florida, 43
New York, 43
Houston, 44
Pittsburgh, 47
Three teams had called it a season: Montreal, Colorado and Arizona.
By my count, that tallies two playoff spots that virtually had been decided, leaving six spots open. And 21 teams were still alive vying for those spots. 21 teams -- that seems like an unusually high amount...
In any case, we were set up for the second half about as good as we could expect.
It's been a tick under a month since the All-Star break (July 12-14), and we have a little under two months left in the regular season. As the delusional and delinquent Casper muttered through his fog at the end of the movie Kids: "Jesus, what the hell happened?"
(Overall Record, followed by post-break record)
AL East
New York 70-39 (15-8) -
Boston 48-38 (11-11) 10.5
We knew it was over going into the break, but now the Yankees have their biggest lead on the Sox in three years. Considering the pre-season hype for this divison race, it ranks as one of the bigger "coulda been"s in recent memory.
AL Central
Minnesota 47-40 (15-7) -
Cleveland 57-54 (15-9) 6
Chicago 46-38 (8-15) 7
Kudos to Cleveland for making a nice push to assert themselves in the Wild Card, but this divison feels like it's done. Turning point: Minnesota walking into Chicago and taking three straight from the pale hose, July 27-29. In the last 20 games (thanks to dougstats.com) the Twins have gained 8 games on Chicago.
From an offensive standpoint, there hasn't been that much of a statisical difference between the Twins and White Sox. In the last 20 games, the Twins have scored seven more runs and have slight advantages in OBP and SLG, but nothing glaring.
The pitching stats tell a bit of a different story:
ERA
Twins: 2.99 (best in the American League)
Chicago: 4.87 (11th)
Strikeouts
Twins: 135 (5th)
Chicago: 116 (11th)
HRs Allowed
Minnesota: 16 (fewest in the AL)
White Sox: 24 (t-6th)
Another tidbit on the Twins: they've been runnin' fools on the basepaths of late, stealing 26 bases in 20 games. That's easily the most in baseball in that span; the Mets are 2nd with 21.
AL West
Oakland 47-39 (14-9) -
Texas 49-37 (11-11) 1/2
Anaheim 47-40 (13-10) 1.5
Alright, now we got something. Anaheim, with a recent slate of games that included the Mariners and Royals, are 7-3 in their last 10 and have established themselves as a serious player in the division race again. Looking ahead to the rest of the month, they have five more games against Kansas City, three vs. Baltimore, three vs. Detroit and three vs. Tampa. Their other seven games of the month are against NY, Minnesota and Boston. Still, that's a very favorable schedule and bodes well for them.
Oakland and Texas have been see-sawing nearly every day since the break, with Oakland's 4-2 record against the Rangers in July being the difference right now. I still think Oakland is going to win the division, but clearly there is nothing that's going to be a cinch about it.
Wild Card summary: I put seven teams (not counting the division leaders) into the Wild Card mix at the break, conceding that seven games was a hefty range.
In cutting it down to a 6-game loss column range:
Texas, 48
Boston, 49
Anaheim, 50
Chicago, 53
Cleveland, 54
Cleveland has been a great story this half, with a 15-9 record. Here are their AL offensive rankings in their last 20:
Runs, 1st
Batting Average, 1st
Doubles, 1st
OBP, 1st
SLG, 1st
Fewest Strikeouts, 1st
They're still giving up runs in the sime timeframe, as their 4.80 ERA can attest to. However, the inevitable "lean years" that followed their great run that last ten years, don't look like they're lasting as long as the franchise's other drought(s).
Tampa Bay and Detroit have been lost to the Wild Card chase.
I'll say the AL's interest meter is in 50/50 shape, with the White Sox's nosedive a major factor in the downgrade. Two divisions are now sealed. One great race in the West remais, and 3-5 teams vying for the Wild Card, depending on 1) how seriously you take Cleveland and 2) if the White Sox are going to show any life down the stretch.
Onto the National League, where the pickings are a bit thinner...
NL East
Atlanta 62-47 (17-5) -
Philadelphia 57-53 (11-12) 5.5
Florida 55-54 (10-11) 7
New York 52-57 (8-14) 10
How fast did this division race fall apart? About as fast as you can say "Bobby Cox & Leo Mazzone." I wrote sometime last week about the Braves' amazing July numbers. They're just slightly off the pace statistically so far this month, but haven't suffered it in their record (5-1 in August). The rest of the division, a division that at one time was predicted to say bunched tightly for the rest of the season, has either muddled around for the past month, or simply fallen apart.
NL Central
St. Louis 71-38 (17-5) -
Chicago 61-49 (14-9) 10.5
Like Boston, the Cubs' hole in the divisional race has only worsened since the All Star break. Unlike the BoSox, they have established a firm grip on the Wild Card. I'm not a Cardinals historian by any stretch, and without looking through the records, I have to believe they're having one of the Top 5 or so regular seasons in the history of the franchise. Their run margin stands at +136, and seems to get better by the day.
NL West
Los Angeles 65-44 (17-6) -
San Diego 59-51 (12-10) 6.5
San Fran. 59-53 (10-13) 7.5
Like the NL East, this race has turned so quickly and decisively, it's hard to believe. I mean we're talking about the Dodgers. The heretofore model-of-inconsistency Dodgers. Of course, things are changing in Dodgertown, whether the L.A. press understands sabermetrics or not.
In the last 20 games, the Dodgers' OBP & SLG numbers are good for 4th and 3rd respectively in the NL. Their ERA ranks second behind the Braves at 3.36. Oh yeah, and since that trade that garnered some attention, they are 6-2.
Since I used a 6-game range to tally the remaining AL Wild Card contenders, I'll do the same for the NL:
Chicago, 49
San Diego, 51
Philadelphia, 53
San Francisco, 53
Florida, 54
Houston, 55
One more additional team in the mix than in the AL, but certainly not as promising a race. If the Cubs continue their recent performance level, you can bag this race as well. And unfortunately, the Wild Card race is the only thing the NL has to hang its hat on right now. The three division races look as sealed as Grammy envelopes.
Maybe a Dodgers collapse will make things more enticing for the last month-plus of the season (I'm certainly not holding my breath in regards to the Braves). Maybe Cleveland will spice things up as the surprise team of the year and make a September playoff push. Maybe this and maybe that. The bottom line is that in less than one month's time, baseball has seen three more divisions put to bed in addition to the two that were already done.
I'm one division race and a Wild Card short of saying, "Wake me in October..."
