Monday, July 18, 2005

Back to the Grind

It’s the nature of a baseball season that a fan can’t get too giddy after one good weekend, especially if that weekend is in the middle of July. For if a Yankee fan takes a quick glance at the match-ups for tonight’s game, they’ll see:

1) Kevin Brown is pitching for New York in Texas.

2) The Red Sox play host to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays.

As nice as the three-out-of-four weekend in Boston was for the Bombers, the grind has only just begun.

Brown is a major question mark, not only tonight but for the rest of the season. His infamous creaky, achy, aged back is now a perpetual hindrance, always ready to set him back for a few more weeks, and maybe not too far from sending him into retirement permanently.

And there is no guarantee that he is going to be anything close to effective against one of the best line-ups in the sport.

"We know we're probably rushing Brownie a little bit; not physically, but with his sharpness," said manager Joe Torre yesterday. "We need it, and he's certainly been preparing for this. He's ready to go." (MLB.com)

Brown hasn’t pitched since a mediocre, and apparently injury-riddled, outing against the Pirates on June 15. 4.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

He’s thrown only one real good game this year, May 8 at home vs. Oakland:
IP  H  R  ER  BB  K
7 5 0 0 1 4

Outside of that, he has been imminently hittable (91 H in 65.2 IP), with his worst OBA since 1988, a season in which he appeared in four games.

As far as the Sox, they take a breather with the Devil Rays coming in. They lead the season series 4-2, despite losing 2 of 3 when the teams last met way back in the first month of the season: April 22-24 in St. Pete.

Both pitchers tonight at Fenway have been a study of mediocrity.

Kazmir, one of the supposed cornerstones of the future Tampa rotation, has been up and down for the entire season, flashing only occasional glimpses of his potential.

His lowest post-May ERA was 3.86 after a decent performance against the Mariners on June 4. Since then it’s bounced over and around the mid-4.00s. It’s 4.59 going into tonight.

His strikeout numbers aren’t bad – 7.24 K/9 – but he has really done himself in with the walk. He leads the AL in bases on balls with 56 in 102 innings of work.

Missing the opportunity to take advantage of a walk-prone hurler last night, it’s hard to imagine the Sox letting Kazmir off the hook in a similar fashion.

On the other side, Wade Miller gets the start for the Sox, and he has been consistently underwhelming to date.

There aren’t any 8 inning gems in his batch of game logs; with the exception of one May outing there aren’t many low-IP/high-R disasters in there either.

At this point in his career, Miller appears to be a six-inning pitcher. Every single one of his starts outside of the May 26 shellacking in Toronto has been between 5 and 7 innings. Seven of his 12 starts have seen him pitch in the range of 5.2-6.1 innings. His effectiveness on a game-to-game basis hasn’t been nearly as predictable.

A typical start sees him giving up a lot of hits, allowing a lot of free passes and not getting a lot of strikeouts. Not a recipe for success.

His saving grace is that he’s not allowing the long ball with any consistency. In his last eight starts, he’s allowed a total of three.

The Devil Rays are essentially an average offensive team with a horrendous pitching staff.

Tampa’s AL Offensive Rankings:
Runs: 9th
OBP: 8th
SLG: 10th
AVG: T-5th
HR: 7th

I give them a puncher’s chance tonight, because Miller is suspect. But I can envision the Red Sox hitting, walking and scoring all night long.

Statement
I know Cleveland is no great shakes, and was not playing well going into the series. However, Chicago’s sweep at the Jake this weekend was eye-opening. The division was probably salted away a long time ago, but now it’s not even a question for debate.

I still, even after 3+ months of them playing .678 baseball, don’t know what to think of the ChiSox. I don’t know how they’ll perform in the post-season. I wonder how a guy like Jon Garland will perform in a pivotal game of the ALDS or ALCS. I wonder if that line-up and its stream of sparkplugs will freeze and slow to a grinding halt in those cold nights of October against Boston or New York. Or be over-matched by that formidable Angels staff.

But that's for another day; they're having an incredible season.

Gem of the Northwest
When I get a chance to watch West Coast games, usually on Friday and Saturday nights, I gravitate towards one park over and over. That's Safeco Field. Now if there's a big match-up in San Diego or Anaheim, or any other park for that matter, I'll go to the bigger game. But all things being equal, I thoroughly enjoy watching baseball played in Seattle.

It comes across as a very good crowd, a crowd that's truly invested in the game, and they're still getting good numbers at the gate despite having a crummy team for a couple years now. The place looks immaculate; the facility looks clean, well-structured and the field always appears phenomenal on screen.

I was interested in what the Orioles were doing this weekend at Safeco, but watching segments of three of the games in the series, it dawned on me that any team could be playing the Mariners in that park, and I'd be willing to watch an inning or two. A great presentation of the game.

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