Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Some Thoughts After This Statistical Soup (Pt. 2 of 2)
The Yanks remain the best offense in the sport, despite the recent dips in scoring average and other stats. The most pressing issues that face the team are nothing new: age and the resultant declining performance. Derek Jeter turned 36 in June. His .273 average entering today would his worst batting average in a full season ever. By 18 points. His .335 OBP the worst by 17 points; his .384 SLG would be the first sub-.400 in that category ever.
Alex Rodriguez just turned 35. He too is on pace to set full-season career lows in all three "slash stats": .264/.335/.467. His previous career lows in the three categories: .285/.350/.496
These aren't the only concerns in the everyday line-up. Brett Gardner hasn't been the same since taking a ball off his hand in late June. Jorge Posada while maintaining his career average production, has daily, physical concerns that have stunted his playing time. And his back-up hits the ball with the kind of authority that's more in line with 1910, not 2010. Curtis Granderson is having the worst full season of his career, and is proving there is such a thing as a disappointing New York season that nobody will notice.
And with the additions of Berkman and Kearns, Coffee Joe (as Giardi has been dubbed by one of my favorite cyber-scribes, Steven Goldman) has already shown a proclivity to pick line-ups like a blind man playing pin the tail on the donkey. Finding a consistent groove for the everyday line-up will be a key by the time the big September games vs. Tampa approach.
While the team can bear some of the havoc that Father Time is wrecking on some of the team's centerpieces, it will not survive many more blows to the pitching staff if it's going to compete for another World Series championship. The absence of Andy Pettitte from the everyday rotation has already been felt as they've had to deal with one terrible Sergio Mitre start, one workmanlike Dustin Moseley start, and a I-gave-you-length-but-gave-up-runs Moseley loss to the Blue Jays last night. The next time Pettitte's spot comes up is Monday vs. Boston and Jon Lester. Good luck with that.
They've had to deal with Chan Ho Park inflating the team's ERA as soon as April dawned, and Joba Chamberlain, while showing glimpses of excellence, being on the whole underwhelming and maddeningly inconsistent.
But that's all cupcakes and rainbows compared to the real albatross around this staff's proverbial neck. I'm referring of course to the Great Pie Tosser himself, A.J. Burnett. Truth be told, Burnett's never been a great pitcher. But he's always been "solid," throwing just enough gems in a given year to off-set those days in which he has his prototypical four-inning/six-run meltdowns. His full season ERAs have bounced from the low 4.00's to the mid-to-high 3.00's. In years that he's healthy, he's good for 200 innings, a bunch of strikeouts and a bushel of walks.
This season, he's simply fallen off the cliff. ESPN.com currently has him projected out to a 14-14 campaign with an unsightly 4.93 (in the year of the pitcher no less). In seasons with at least 13 starts, it would be his worse ERA since he threw to a 4.70 in 13 starts 10 years ago. While his walk rate is relatively steady, his strikeout rate is down, which is never a good sign for a power pitcher. As Goldman would say, you see that and you start asking ugly questions like "Is he losing something in his pitches?" "Is there an injury at play?" His 6.9 K/9 rate would be his lowest since 2001.
The Rubix Cube of the Yankees' season will be how they structure their post-season pitching rotation. Last season with the help of a little luck (favorable scheduling, which allowed for well-placed off days) and genuinely excellent starting pitching, New York was able to win a World Series with a three-man playoff rotation. That feat hadn't been accomplished since the Blue Jays in the early 1990's. Not only will they have to question the worthiness of trying to pull that trick again (Is it realistic? How effective will Pettitte be, for example, on short-rest, especially if the three series go longer?), but figure out how they are going to fill those rotation spots, regardless of whether it's a 3-man or 4-man October staff.
Conventional wisdom (New York sports talk radio) suggests that the Yankees would be be better served by moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen in the post-season, which would take pressure off the Joba/Robertson (and dare I say, Kerry Wood?) combo? Doing this would leave it up to the Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte triumvirate to again carry the team to another trophy. But Burnett's post-season pedestal has to at least be showing cracks in the foundation in the eyes of the Yankee brass. If Hughes is throwing like he has his past two starts (his fastball is back to popping, with great movement even within the strike zone) do you dare take him out of a playoff start? Especially if Burnett continues on his Season to Nowhere?
Playoff Perspective
It's close enough in the standings to give the series this weekend at Yankee Stadium a fair amount of weight, but not enough for Yankee fans to put on anything other than their usual level of antiperspirant. As if it wasn't looking bleak enough for the Boston Nine, the loss of Kevin Youkilis from line-up further solidifies the chances that Sox will be left out of the post-season party in 2010. BP's Postseason Odds has the Yankees at 77% to make the playoffs. The Rays are at 90% and the Sox at 27%.
Even as much as I respect Boston's grit and their ability to hang in this season when they reasonably could've cashed out two months ago, it's a matter of firepower and I don't see the Yankees going into a big enough slide for Boston to catch them.
The Division
There is nothing in the numbers or my own visual analysis that makes the winner of the A.L. East clear-cut in my mind. With the dip in the Yankee pitching numbers, you can make a case that there's a lean to Tampa now. But Tampa is also playing in the midst of their greatest hot streak of the season and won't win 10 out of every 11 games in August and September. BP gives Tampa a 60% chance to win the division and the Yankees 32%.
October Baseball
When looking at the Yankees' prospects in October, I expect things to be a bit murkier than they were entering October of 2009. For one, there will be no island of preparation in the last month of the regular season, what my friends and I refer to as "October Mode." A time to rest regulars, heal, re-energize, skip spots in the rotation and totally reboot the bullpen. The Yankees value home-field advantage, and rightly so, to the point that they will pursue the Rays into the far reaches of September in order to grab the top spot in the A.L. Win or lose, how much will that chase take out of them by the time they get to October?
I've already talked about the playoff rotation, the construction of the line-up and age and barking injuries taking their quiet toll. However, one the biggest factors of all may be the improved competition the Yankees are likely to face before playing a National League opponent. Texas and Tampa in particular are likely to present much more of a challenge than the Twins or Angels were able to muster in the ALDS and ALCS last season. The Yankees never saw a "deciding game" in any of their three playoff series: no game 5 in the first round, no game 7's. That will not be the case this time around.
In another year, I'd be more likely celebrating a team that has been rubbing elbows with some of the great Yankee teams of all-time and is on pace for over 100 wins. But Tampa, with their stellar pitching staff, very good defense and solid offense, are presenting a difficult challenge not only for the division, but may end up being the biggest obstacle to banner #28 come October.
The Yanks remain the best offense in the sport, despite the recent dips in scoring average and other stats. The most pressing issues that face the team are nothing new: age and the resultant declining performance. Derek Jeter turned 36 in June. His .273 average entering today would his worst batting average in a full season ever. By 18 points. His .335 OBP the worst by 17 points; his .384 SLG would be the first sub-.400 in that category ever.
Alex Rodriguez just turned 35. He too is on pace to set full-season career lows in all three "slash stats": .264/.335/.467. His previous career lows in the three categories: .285/.350/.496
These aren't the only concerns in the everyday line-up. Brett Gardner hasn't been the same since taking a ball off his hand in late June. Jorge Posada while maintaining his career average production, has daily, physical concerns that have stunted his playing time. And his back-up hits the ball with the kind of authority that's more in line with 1910, not 2010. Curtis Granderson is having the worst full season of his career, and is proving there is such a thing as a disappointing New York season that nobody will notice.
And with the additions of Berkman and Kearns, Coffee Joe (as Giardi has been dubbed by one of my favorite cyber-scribes, Steven Goldman) has already shown a proclivity to pick line-ups like a blind man playing pin the tail on the donkey. Finding a consistent groove for the everyday line-up will be a key by the time the big September games vs. Tampa approach.
While the team can bear some of the havoc that Father Time is wrecking on some of the team's centerpieces, it will not survive many more blows to the pitching staff if it's going to compete for another World Series championship. The absence of Andy Pettitte from the everyday rotation has already been felt as they've had to deal with one terrible Sergio Mitre start, one workmanlike Dustin Moseley start, and a I-gave-you-length-but-gave-up-runs Moseley loss to the Blue Jays last night. The next time Pettitte's spot comes up is Monday vs. Boston and Jon Lester. Good luck with that.
They've had to deal with Chan Ho Park inflating the team's ERA as soon as April dawned, and Joba Chamberlain, while showing glimpses of excellence, being on the whole underwhelming and maddeningly inconsistent.
But that's all cupcakes and rainbows compared to the real albatross around this staff's proverbial neck. I'm referring of course to the Great Pie Tosser himself, A.J. Burnett. Truth be told, Burnett's never been a great pitcher. But he's always been "solid," throwing just enough gems in a given year to off-set those days in which he has his prototypical four-inning/six-run meltdowns. His full season ERAs have bounced from the low 4.00's to the mid-to-high 3.00's. In years that he's healthy, he's good for 200 innings, a bunch of strikeouts and a bushel of walks.
This season, he's simply fallen off the cliff. ESPN.com currently has him projected out to a 14-14 campaign with an unsightly 4.93 (in the year of the pitcher no less). In seasons with at least 13 starts, it would be his worse ERA since he threw to a 4.70 in 13 starts 10 years ago. While his walk rate is relatively steady, his strikeout rate is down, which is never a good sign for a power pitcher. As Goldman would say, you see that and you start asking ugly questions like "Is he losing something in his pitches?" "Is there an injury at play?" His 6.9 K/9 rate would be his lowest since 2001.
The Rubix Cube of the Yankees' season will be how they structure their post-season pitching rotation. Last season with the help of a little luck (favorable scheduling, which allowed for well-placed off days) and genuinely excellent starting pitching, New York was able to win a World Series with a three-man playoff rotation. That feat hadn't been accomplished since the Blue Jays in the early 1990's. Not only will they have to question the worthiness of trying to pull that trick again (Is it realistic? How effective will Pettitte be, for example, on short-rest, especially if the three series go longer?), but figure out how they are going to fill those rotation spots, regardless of whether it's a 3-man or 4-man October staff.
Conventional wisdom (New York sports talk radio) suggests that the Yankees would be be better served by moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen in the post-season, which would take pressure off the Joba/Robertson (and dare I say, Kerry Wood?) combo? Doing this would leave it up to the Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte triumvirate to again carry the team to another trophy. But Burnett's post-season pedestal has to at least be showing cracks in the foundation in the eyes of the Yankee brass. If Hughes is throwing like he has his past two starts (his fastball is back to popping, with great movement even within the strike zone) do you dare take him out of a playoff start? Especially if Burnett continues on his Season to Nowhere?
Playoff Perspective
It's close enough in the standings to give the series this weekend at Yankee Stadium a fair amount of weight, but not enough for Yankee fans to put on anything other than their usual level of antiperspirant. As if it wasn't looking bleak enough for the Boston Nine, the loss of Kevin Youkilis from line-up further solidifies the chances that Sox will be left out of the post-season party in 2010. BP's Postseason Odds has the Yankees at 77% to make the playoffs. The Rays are at 90% and the Sox at 27%.
Even as much as I respect Boston's grit and their ability to hang in this season when they reasonably could've cashed out two months ago, it's a matter of firepower and I don't see the Yankees going into a big enough slide for Boston to catch them.
The Division
There is nothing in the numbers or my own visual analysis that makes the winner of the A.L. East clear-cut in my mind. With the dip in the Yankee pitching numbers, you can make a case that there's a lean to Tampa now. But Tampa is also playing in the midst of their greatest hot streak of the season and won't win 10 out of every 11 games in August and September. BP gives Tampa a 60% chance to win the division and the Yankees 32%.
October Baseball
When looking at the Yankees' prospects in October, I expect things to be a bit murkier than they were entering October of 2009. For one, there will be no island of preparation in the last month of the regular season, what my friends and I refer to as "October Mode." A time to rest regulars, heal, re-energize, skip spots in the rotation and totally reboot the bullpen. The Yankees value home-field advantage, and rightly so, to the point that they will pursue the Rays into the far reaches of September in order to grab the top spot in the A.L. Win or lose, how much will that chase take out of them by the time they get to October?
I've already talked about the playoff rotation, the construction of the line-up and age and barking injuries taking their quiet toll. However, one the biggest factors of all may be the improved competition the Yankees are likely to face before playing a National League opponent. Texas and Tampa in particular are likely to present much more of a challenge than the Twins or Angels were able to muster in the ALDS and ALCS last season. The Yankees never saw a "deciding game" in any of their three playoff series: no game 5 in the first round, no game 7's. That will not be the case this time around.
In another year, I'd be more likely celebrating a team that has been rubbing elbows with some of the great Yankee teams of all-time and is on pace for over 100 wins. But Tampa, with their stellar pitching staff, very good defense and solid offense, are presenting a difficult challenge not only for the division, but may end up being the biggest obstacle to banner #28 come October.
Into the Statistical Soup: A.L. East (Part 1 of 2)
June 12. That was the last time before the conclusion of last night's games in the majors that the Yankees didn't have at least a share of first place in the American League's eastern division.
Through 6/12:
40-22 Tampa Bay
39-23 New York
37-27 Boston
The Yankees played so well from June 13-July 29, that there was a sense that they had plopped down a flag on first place and by some baseball decree would remain there for the duration of the season.
In that span of about one-and-a-half months, the Yanks went 26-13, with the course of business as easy as in any team season in recent memory. After 100 games, they had the third best record in the history of the franchise, behind only two all-time teams: the 1998 juggernaut and the last great Mantle team of 1961.
However, over that same time, Tampa went 23-16, essentially staying step-for-step with the history chasers, and especially peaking as the month of August was approaching.
The Red Sox meanwhile, dealing the type of adversity usually reserved for Job, played at a level respectable enough to keep their season breathing: 21-17.
Through June 13th, the Yanks were first in the American League in runs per game at 5.63. Boston was second at 5.43. Tampa was third at 5.29.
Some of the important underlying numbers to runs scored, i.e. either good correlations to scoring runs or indicators of future performance, include OBP, OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and league contexts) and batting average with runners in scoring position.
Through June 13, AL ranks:
OBP
01. New York, .365
02. Boston, .352
T7. Tampa Bay and Texas, .339
OPS+
01. New York, +121
03. Boston, +114
05. Tampa Bay, +103
RISP/BA
01. New York, .278
T2. Boston and Minnesota, .276
T5. Kansas City and Tampa Bay, .274
While Tampa has drifted towards more of a good-but-not-great offense over the course of the season, Boston and New York in particular have been among the cream-of-the-crop offenses in the sport for the duration of the season.
Now to the pitching ledger. Looking at runs allowed per game, ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league contexts) and WHIP.
Through June 13 AL ranks:
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.75
03. New York, 4.00
10. Boston, 4.69
ERA+
01. Tampa Bay, +125
T3. Texas and New York, +108
08. Boston, +103
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.236
02. New York, 1.248
09. Boston, 1.366
In line with looking at the pitching statistics, it's worth looking at a couple of defensive metrics. Admittedly, I tread very lightly among some of these numbers, as there is constant debate about the best statistics to use for evaluating defensive play, how to apply those statistics and then how to analyze the results. I'll stick with two that I can consider basic barometers of defensive work on a team level and can be used alongside traditional numbers such as chances, putouts, errors and fielding percentage. 1. PADE: Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (BP), it's simply how well a defense turns batted balls into outs adjusted for park factors. 2. BAbip: batting average on balls in play.
Through June 13 A.L. Ranks:
PADE
02. Boston, 2.24
03. New York, 1.64
04. Tampa Bay, 1.60
*BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
02. New York, .280
04. Boston, .285
*Although there are different ways to use and look at BAbip, it can used to gauge a team's defense (the more batted balls in play that are turned into outs, means the more balls that are being run down and caught, means the better the defense). But it could also be indicative of having good pitchers that don't allow a lot of good swings, line drives, well-hit balls, etc. And these factors are not mutually exclusive: a good pitching staff and a good defense typically go hand-in-hand. It could be a gauge of luck.
One of the underrated aspects of this Yankees team has been their defensive play. They've ranked high among BP's defensive metrics nearly all season long. That's how you keep pace with the 1961 Yankees: you do everything well - hit, pitch and field the ball.
While the Yankees have been on cruise control since the speed bump of mid- to late-May, they still found themselves sitting one game out of first place entering today's action. They haven't totally shaken a game Boston team that despite fielding a bunch of vagabonds and no-names were only six back of the Bombers in the loss column with a four-game series slated for the upcoming weekend.
Another look at the stats I listed above through August 3, all American League rankings.
Runs Per Game
01. New York, 5.39
02. Boston, 5.18
03. Tampa Bay, 5.06
In the year of the pitcher, all three teams have cooled off their scoring pace since June 13, losing 0.24, 0.25, and 0.23 respectively.
OBP
02. New York, .350
03. Boston, .347
T4. Texas and Tampa Bay, .340
The Yankees have slid the most of the three teams, as they've lost 15 points of OBP since 6/13. Tampa is virtually the same (.339 vs. 340) and Boston's only down five points.
OPS+
01. New York, +115
T2. Boston and Minnesota, +111
T6. Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, +100
In line with the shift in OBP, the Yanks have the biggest crash here (-6), while Boston (-3) and Tampa (-3) have seen smaller dips.
RISP/BA
5. Boston, .270
6. Tampa Bay, .267
7. New York, .266
There's been a considerable drop-off in this category by all three teams, but none more so than the Yankees, who've gone from 1st in the A.L. at .278 on June 13 to .266 and essentially league average.
Now for the defense.
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.80
06. New York, 4.16
09. Boston, 4.53
The Yankees pitching-and-defense is almost equally distant from Tampa as it is from the Red Sox; that's how much Tampa has separated their run prevention from New York. They have maintained their league-best R/G rate losing adding only 0.05 since 6/13, while the Yanks have jumped 0.16. The Sox have improved.
ERA+
01. Tampa, +119
06. Boston, +106
07. New York, +103
The Yanks have fallen from tied for third to 7th in the league.
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.224
03. New York, 1.286
09. Boston, 1.341
Tampa and Boston have lowered their WHIPs since 6/13; the Yanks' number has gone up.
PADE
02. Tampa Bay, 1.72
03. Boston, 1.66
04. New York, 1.33
Tampa's improved their number, their division mates have slid.
BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
04. New York, .285
06. Boston, .288
(Part 0f 2 and some general conclusions to follow)
June 12. That was the last time before the conclusion of last night's games in the majors that the Yankees didn't have at least a share of first place in the American League's eastern division.
Through 6/12:
40-22 Tampa Bay
39-23 New York
37-27 Boston
The Yankees played so well from June 13-July 29, that there was a sense that they had plopped down a flag on first place and by some baseball decree would remain there for the duration of the season.
In that span of about one-and-a-half months, the Yanks went 26-13, with the course of business as easy as in any team season in recent memory. After 100 games, they had the third best record in the history of the franchise, behind only two all-time teams: the 1998 juggernaut and the last great Mantle team of 1961.
However, over that same time, Tampa went 23-16, essentially staying step-for-step with the history chasers, and especially peaking as the month of August was approaching.
The Red Sox meanwhile, dealing the type of adversity usually reserved for Job, played at a level respectable enough to keep their season breathing: 21-17.
Through June 13th, the Yanks were first in the American League in runs per game at 5.63. Boston was second at 5.43. Tampa was third at 5.29.
Some of the important underlying numbers to runs scored, i.e. either good correlations to scoring runs or indicators of future performance, include OBP, OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and league contexts) and batting average with runners in scoring position.
Through June 13, AL ranks:
OBP
01. New York, .365
02. Boston, .352
T7. Tampa Bay and Texas, .339
OPS+
01. New York, +121
03. Boston, +114
05. Tampa Bay, +103
RISP/BA
01. New York, .278
T2. Boston and Minnesota, .276
T5. Kansas City and Tampa Bay, .274
While Tampa has drifted towards more of a good-but-not-great offense over the course of the season, Boston and New York in particular have been among the cream-of-the-crop offenses in the sport for the duration of the season.
Now to the pitching ledger. Looking at runs allowed per game, ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league contexts) and WHIP.
Through June 13 AL ranks:
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.75
03. New York, 4.00
10. Boston, 4.69
ERA+
01. Tampa Bay, +125
T3. Texas and New York, +108
08. Boston, +103
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.236
02. New York, 1.248
09. Boston, 1.366
In line with looking at the pitching statistics, it's worth looking at a couple of defensive metrics. Admittedly, I tread very lightly among some of these numbers, as there is constant debate about the best statistics to use for evaluating defensive play, how to apply those statistics and then how to analyze the results. I'll stick with two that I can consider basic barometers of defensive work on a team level and can be used alongside traditional numbers such as chances, putouts, errors and fielding percentage. 1. PADE: Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (BP), it's simply how well a defense turns batted balls into outs adjusted for park factors. 2. BAbip: batting average on balls in play.
Through June 13 A.L. Ranks:
PADE
02. Boston, 2.24
03. New York, 1.64
04. Tampa Bay, 1.60
*BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
02. New York, .280
04. Boston, .285
*Although there are different ways to use and look at BAbip, it can used to gauge a team's defense (the more batted balls in play that are turned into outs, means the more balls that are being run down and caught, means the better the defense). But it could also be indicative of having good pitchers that don't allow a lot of good swings, line drives, well-hit balls, etc. And these factors are not mutually exclusive: a good pitching staff and a good defense typically go hand-in-hand. It could be a gauge of luck.
One of the underrated aspects of this Yankees team has been their defensive play. They've ranked high among BP's defensive metrics nearly all season long. That's how you keep pace with the 1961 Yankees: you do everything well - hit, pitch and field the ball.
While the Yankees have been on cruise control since the speed bump of mid- to late-May, they still found themselves sitting one game out of first place entering today's action. They haven't totally shaken a game Boston team that despite fielding a bunch of vagabonds and no-names were only six back of the Bombers in the loss column with a four-game series slated for the upcoming weekend.
Another look at the stats I listed above through August 3, all American League rankings.
Runs Per Game
01. New York, 5.39
02. Boston, 5.18
03. Tampa Bay, 5.06
In the year of the pitcher, all three teams have cooled off their scoring pace since June 13, losing 0.24, 0.25, and 0.23 respectively.
OBP
02. New York, .350
03. Boston, .347
T4. Texas and Tampa Bay, .340
The Yankees have slid the most of the three teams, as they've lost 15 points of OBP since 6/13. Tampa is virtually the same (.339 vs. 340) and Boston's only down five points.
OPS+
01. New York, +115
T2. Boston and Minnesota, +111
T6. Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, +100
In line with the shift in OBP, the Yanks have the biggest crash here (-6), while Boston (-3) and Tampa (-3) have seen smaller dips.
RISP/BA
5. Boston, .270
6. Tampa Bay, .267
7. New York, .266
There's been a considerable drop-off in this category by all three teams, but none more so than the Yankees, who've gone from 1st in the A.L. at .278 on June 13 to .266 and essentially league average.
Now for the defense.
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.80
06. New York, 4.16
09. Boston, 4.53
The Yankees pitching-and-defense is almost equally distant from Tampa as it is from the Red Sox; that's how much Tampa has separated their run prevention from New York. They have maintained their league-best R/G rate losing adding only 0.05 since 6/13, while the Yanks have jumped 0.16. The Sox have improved.
ERA+
01. Tampa, +119
06. Boston, +106
07. New York, +103
The Yanks have fallen from tied for third to 7th in the league.
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.224
03. New York, 1.286
09. Boston, 1.341
Tampa and Boston have lowered their WHIPs since 6/13; the Yanks' number has gone up.
PADE
02. Tampa Bay, 1.72
03. Boston, 1.66
04. New York, 1.33
Tampa's improved their number, their division mates have slid.
BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
04. New York, .285
06. Boston, .288
(Part 0f 2 and some general conclusions to follow)
