Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Some Thoughts After This Statistical Soup (Pt. 2 of 2)
The Yanks remain the best offense in the sport, despite the recent dips in scoring average and other stats. The most pressing issues that face the team are nothing new: age and the resultant declining performance. Derek Jeter turned 36 in June. His .273 average entering today would his worst batting average in a full season ever. By 18 points. His .335 OBP the worst by 17 points; his .384 SLG would be the first sub-.400 in that category ever.
Alex Rodriguez just turned 35. He too is on pace to set full-season career lows in all three "slash stats": .264/.335/.467. His previous career lows in the three categories: .285/.350/.496
These aren't the only concerns in the everyday line-up. Brett Gardner hasn't been the same since taking a ball off his hand in late June. Jorge Posada while maintaining his career average production, has daily, physical concerns that have stunted his playing time. And his back-up hits the ball with the kind of authority that's more in line with 1910, not 2010. Curtis Granderson is having the worst full season of his career, and is proving there is such a thing as a disappointing New York season that nobody will notice.
And with the additions of Berkman and Kearns, Coffee Joe (as Giardi has been dubbed by one of my favorite cyber-scribes, Steven Goldman) has already shown a proclivity to pick line-ups like a blind man playing pin the tail on the donkey. Finding a consistent groove for the everyday line-up will be a key by the time the big September games vs. Tampa approach.
While the team can bear some of the havoc that Father Time is wrecking on some of the team's centerpieces, it will not survive many more blows to the pitching staff if it's going to compete for another World Series championship. The absence of Andy Pettitte from the everyday rotation has already been felt as they've had to deal with one terrible Sergio Mitre start, one workmanlike Dustin Moseley start, and a I-gave-you-length-but-gave-up-runs Moseley loss to the Blue Jays last night. The next time Pettitte's spot comes up is Monday vs. Boston and Jon Lester. Good luck with that.
They've had to deal with Chan Ho Park inflating the team's ERA as soon as April dawned, and Joba Chamberlain, while showing glimpses of excellence, being on the whole underwhelming and maddeningly inconsistent.
But that's all cupcakes and rainbows compared to the real albatross around this staff's proverbial neck. I'm referring of course to the Great Pie Tosser himself, A.J. Burnett. Truth be told, Burnett's never been a great pitcher. But he's always been "solid," throwing just enough gems in a given year to off-set those days in which he has his prototypical four-inning/six-run meltdowns. His full season ERAs have bounced from the low 4.00's to the mid-to-high 3.00's. In years that he's healthy, he's good for 200 innings, a bunch of strikeouts and a bushel of walks.
This season, he's simply fallen off the cliff. ESPN.com currently has him projected out to a 14-14 campaign with an unsightly 4.93 (in the year of the pitcher no less). In seasons with at least 13 starts, it would be his worse ERA since he threw to a 4.70 in 13 starts 10 years ago. While his walk rate is relatively steady, his strikeout rate is down, which is never a good sign for a power pitcher. As Goldman would say, you see that and you start asking ugly questions like "Is he losing something in his pitches?" "Is there an injury at play?" His 6.9 K/9 rate would be his lowest since 2001.
The Rubix Cube of the Yankees' season will be how they structure their post-season pitching rotation. Last season with the help of a little luck (favorable scheduling, which allowed for well-placed off days) and genuinely excellent starting pitching, New York was able to win a World Series with a three-man playoff rotation. That feat hadn't been accomplished since the Blue Jays in the early 1990's. Not only will they have to question the worthiness of trying to pull that trick again (Is it realistic? How effective will Pettitte be, for example, on short-rest, especially if the three series go longer?), but figure out how they are going to fill those rotation spots, regardless of whether it's a 3-man or 4-man October staff.
Conventional wisdom (New York sports talk radio) suggests that the Yankees would be be better served by moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen in the post-season, which would take pressure off the Joba/Robertson (and dare I say, Kerry Wood?) combo? Doing this would leave it up to the Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte triumvirate to again carry the team to another trophy. But Burnett's post-season pedestal has to at least be showing cracks in the foundation in the eyes of the Yankee brass. If Hughes is throwing like he has his past two starts (his fastball is back to popping, with great movement even within the strike zone) do you dare take him out of a playoff start? Especially if Burnett continues on his Season to Nowhere?
Playoff Perspective
It's close enough in the standings to give the series this weekend at Yankee Stadium a fair amount of weight, but not enough for Yankee fans to put on anything other than their usual level of antiperspirant. As if it wasn't looking bleak enough for the Boston Nine, the loss of Kevin Youkilis from line-up further solidifies the chances that Sox will be left out of the post-season party in 2010. BP's Postseason Odds has the Yankees at 77% to make the playoffs. The Rays are at 90% and the Sox at 27%.
Even as much as I respect Boston's grit and their ability to hang in this season when they reasonably could've cashed out two months ago, it's a matter of firepower and I don't see the Yankees going into a big enough slide for Boston to catch them.
The Division
There is nothing in the numbers or my own visual analysis that makes the winner of the A.L. East clear-cut in my mind. With the dip in the Yankee pitching numbers, you can make a case that there's a lean to Tampa now. But Tampa is also playing in the midst of their greatest hot streak of the season and won't win 10 out of every 11 games in August and September. BP gives Tampa a 60% chance to win the division and the Yankees 32%.
October Baseball
When looking at the Yankees' prospects in October, I expect things to be a bit murkier than they were entering October of 2009. For one, there will be no island of preparation in the last month of the regular season, what my friends and I refer to as "October Mode." A time to rest regulars, heal, re-energize, skip spots in the rotation and totally reboot the bullpen. The Yankees value home-field advantage, and rightly so, to the point that they will pursue the Rays into the far reaches of September in order to grab the top spot in the A.L. Win or lose, how much will that chase take out of them by the time they get to October?
I've already talked about the playoff rotation, the construction of the line-up and age and barking injuries taking their quiet toll. However, one the biggest factors of all may be the improved competition the Yankees are likely to face before playing a National League opponent. Texas and Tampa in particular are likely to present much more of a challenge than the Twins or Angels were able to muster in the ALDS and ALCS last season. The Yankees never saw a "deciding game" in any of their three playoff series: no game 5 in the first round, no game 7's. That will not be the case this time around.
In another year, I'd be more likely celebrating a team that has been rubbing elbows with some of the great Yankee teams of all-time and is on pace for over 100 wins. But Tampa, with their stellar pitching staff, very good defense and solid offense, are presenting a difficult challenge not only for the division, but may end up being the biggest obstacle to banner #28 come October.
The Yanks remain the best offense in the sport, despite the recent dips in scoring average and other stats. The most pressing issues that face the team are nothing new: age and the resultant declining performance. Derek Jeter turned 36 in June. His .273 average entering today would his worst batting average in a full season ever. By 18 points. His .335 OBP the worst by 17 points; his .384 SLG would be the first sub-.400 in that category ever.
Alex Rodriguez just turned 35. He too is on pace to set full-season career lows in all three "slash stats": .264/.335/.467. His previous career lows in the three categories: .285/.350/.496
These aren't the only concerns in the everyday line-up. Brett Gardner hasn't been the same since taking a ball off his hand in late June. Jorge Posada while maintaining his career average production, has daily, physical concerns that have stunted his playing time. And his back-up hits the ball with the kind of authority that's more in line with 1910, not 2010. Curtis Granderson is having the worst full season of his career, and is proving there is such a thing as a disappointing New York season that nobody will notice.
And with the additions of Berkman and Kearns, Coffee Joe (as Giardi has been dubbed by one of my favorite cyber-scribes, Steven Goldman) has already shown a proclivity to pick line-ups like a blind man playing pin the tail on the donkey. Finding a consistent groove for the everyday line-up will be a key by the time the big September games vs. Tampa approach.
While the team can bear some of the havoc that Father Time is wrecking on some of the team's centerpieces, it will not survive many more blows to the pitching staff if it's going to compete for another World Series championship. The absence of Andy Pettitte from the everyday rotation has already been felt as they've had to deal with one terrible Sergio Mitre start, one workmanlike Dustin Moseley start, and a I-gave-you-length-but-gave-up-runs Moseley loss to the Blue Jays last night. The next time Pettitte's spot comes up is Monday vs. Boston and Jon Lester. Good luck with that.
They've had to deal with Chan Ho Park inflating the team's ERA as soon as April dawned, and Joba Chamberlain, while showing glimpses of excellence, being on the whole underwhelming and maddeningly inconsistent.
But that's all cupcakes and rainbows compared to the real albatross around this staff's proverbial neck. I'm referring of course to the Great Pie Tosser himself, A.J. Burnett. Truth be told, Burnett's never been a great pitcher. But he's always been "solid," throwing just enough gems in a given year to off-set those days in which he has his prototypical four-inning/six-run meltdowns. His full season ERAs have bounced from the low 4.00's to the mid-to-high 3.00's. In years that he's healthy, he's good for 200 innings, a bunch of strikeouts and a bushel of walks.
This season, he's simply fallen off the cliff. ESPN.com currently has him projected out to a 14-14 campaign with an unsightly 4.93 (in the year of the pitcher no less). In seasons with at least 13 starts, it would be his worse ERA since he threw to a 4.70 in 13 starts 10 years ago. While his walk rate is relatively steady, his strikeout rate is down, which is never a good sign for a power pitcher. As Goldman would say, you see that and you start asking ugly questions like "Is he losing something in his pitches?" "Is there an injury at play?" His 6.9 K/9 rate would be his lowest since 2001.
The Rubix Cube of the Yankees' season will be how they structure their post-season pitching rotation. Last season with the help of a little luck (favorable scheduling, which allowed for well-placed off days) and genuinely excellent starting pitching, New York was able to win a World Series with a three-man playoff rotation. That feat hadn't been accomplished since the Blue Jays in the early 1990's. Not only will they have to question the worthiness of trying to pull that trick again (Is it realistic? How effective will Pettitte be, for example, on short-rest, especially if the three series go longer?), but figure out how they are going to fill those rotation spots, regardless of whether it's a 3-man or 4-man October staff.
Conventional wisdom (New York sports talk radio) suggests that the Yankees would be be better served by moving Phil Hughes to the bullpen in the post-season, which would take pressure off the Joba/Robertson (and dare I say, Kerry Wood?) combo? Doing this would leave it up to the Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte triumvirate to again carry the team to another trophy. But Burnett's post-season pedestal has to at least be showing cracks in the foundation in the eyes of the Yankee brass. If Hughes is throwing like he has his past two starts (his fastball is back to popping, with great movement even within the strike zone) do you dare take him out of a playoff start? Especially if Burnett continues on his Season to Nowhere?
Playoff Perspective
It's close enough in the standings to give the series this weekend at Yankee Stadium a fair amount of weight, but not enough for Yankee fans to put on anything other than their usual level of antiperspirant. As if it wasn't looking bleak enough for the Boston Nine, the loss of Kevin Youkilis from line-up further solidifies the chances that Sox will be left out of the post-season party in 2010. BP's Postseason Odds has the Yankees at 77% to make the playoffs. The Rays are at 90% and the Sox at 27%.
Even as much as I respect Boston's grit and their ability to hang in this season when they reasonably could've cashed out two months ago, it's a matter of firepower and I don't see the Yankees going into a big enough slide for Boston to catch them.
The Division
There is nothing in the numbers or my own visual analysis that makes the winner of the A.L. East clear-cut in my mind. With the dip in the Yankee pitching numbers, you can make a case that there's a lean to Tampa now. But Tampa is also playing in the midst of their greatest hot streak of the season and won't win 10 out of every 11 games in August and September. BP gives Tampa a 60% chance to win the division and the Yankees 32%.
October Baseball
When looking at the Yankees' prospects in October, I expect things to be a bit murkier than they were entering October of 2009. For one, there will be no island of preparation in the last month of the regular season, what my friends and I refer to as "October Mode." A time to rest regulars, heal, re-energize, skip spots in the rotation and totally reboot the bullpen. The Yankees value home-field advantage, and rightly so, to the point that they will pursue the Rays into the far reaches of September in order to grab the top spot in the A.L. Win or lose, how much will that chase take out of them by the time they get to October?
I've already talked about the playoff rotation, the construction of the line-up and age and barking injuries taking their quiet toll. However, one the biggest factors of all may be the improved competition the Yankees are likely to face before playing a National League opponent. Texas and Tampa in particular are likely to present much more of a challenge than the Twins or Angels were able to muster in the ALDS and ALCS last season. The Yankees never saw a "deciding game" in any of their three playoff series: no game 5 in the first round, no game 7's. That will not be the case this time around.
In another year, I'd be more likely celebrating a team that has been rubbing elbows with some of the great Yankee teams of all-time and is on pace for over 100 wins. But Tampa, with their stellar pitching staff, very good defense and solid offense, are presenting a difficult challenge not only for the division, but may end up being the biggest obstacle to banner #28 come October.
