Thursday, June 25, 2009
A Sabermetric Silver Lining
(The "Where We Would We Be Without Wishful Thinking?" Edition
Or "Determined to Make You Sick of RISP" Edition)
All Stats Thru Tuesday, June 23
Pete Abraham took a critical look at the Yankees' recent woes yesterday afternoon, in the simply titled "Breaking down the slump."
We've spent a lot of time focusing on the questions in the back-end of the starting rotation and bullpen in recent weeks. In the meantime the everyday starting nine has crumbled. As P.A. points out, the team does have a 3.89 ERA in the 13 games since New York arrived in Fenway Park two weeks ago.
This stretch has dropped the Yanks to 11th in the American League in BA/RISP at .261. That's the bottom five in the league, which is rounded out by:
.256 Texas
.250 Oakland
.246 Chicago
.231 Seattle
Overall, not the company you want your line-ups to be paling around with.
Specifically, what have the Yankees done poorly with RISP, which are the situations that are defining their offensive troubles as much as anything of late?
Double plays/RISP: They've grounded into the second most DPs in the league when presented a good scoring opportunity. But the team that's first has had 43 more plate appearances in these situations.
31 in 826 PAs - Toronto
27 in 773 PAs - New York
26 in 756 PAs - Minnesota
24 in 685 PAs - Detroit
24 in 783 PAs - Boston
Sacrifice Flies: They're 2nd to last in the American League in SFs/RISP. The Yanks have 15; the Royals have 10. The Royals, by the way, are hitting about the same as New York with RISP: .262 to .261. Again, not exactly the offense you want to pattern yourselves after.
There are things the Yankees have done well with RISP, relative to the rest of their A.L. brethren.
a. They've hit the second most doubles (42; the Jays have 48).
b. They've hit the most home runs (21).
c. They're 13-0 in stolen bases. That total ranks 7th in this category, but Cleveland is the only other team that's been perfect in these situations and they have 7 steals.
d. They're 3rd in walks at 102 (Boston and Tampa have 113).
e. Maybe surprisingly, they haven't struck out an inordinate amount of time with RISP. And K's are the silent cousin of the Real Rally Killers, i.e. double plays. They're tied for 7th with Minnesota at 117. Tampa has the most with 171. As an aside, the Rays have also had the most RISP opportunities with 877 plate appearances.
f. They're in the top 5 in the A.L. in OBP/RISP:
.394 Boston
.371 Tampa
.368 Cleveland
.367 Baltimore
.364 New York
g. Thanks to the aforementioned doubles & home run totals, they're third in SLG/RISP at .364.
This doesn't appear to be a team that has some inherent trait that forces them to go into the fetal position when there are runners standing on second base or third base or both. This is a team with an .805 OPS/RISP. The league average is .769.
Is their propensity to hit into double plays a function of bad luck? Their age (slow feet & sometimes tired/lazy bats)? A fault of not "being able to grind things out in a big spot"?
What about not being able to hit a sac fly every now and then with a guy on third base? It has been cited many times, by fans, talk show hosts and the media in general, that this is a poor situational baseball team. And this is the kind of nugget that supports the hysteria. Making it somewhat less hysterical.
The one potential silver lining I do want to point out is their BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play. For those unfamiliar with this stat, here it from the proverbial horse's mouth. From Baseball Prospectus:
The average BABIP in the A.L. with runners in scoring position this year is .296. The Yanks are at .283, which is in the bottom 5 in the league:
.245 - Seattle
.275 - Oakland
.276 - Chicago
.283 - New York
.284 - Minnesota
In all situations, the Yankees BABIP is .287 is 11th in the A.L.
From how I understand the stat, that number is going to continually try and pull itself towards the .300 range. And at quick glance, this seems to be a consistent stat over the last several, full seasons.
2008
.302 - MLB Average
.325 - Highest (Texas)
.281 - Lowest (Chicago AL)
2007
.305 - MLB Average
.323 - Highest (Detroit)
.278 - Lowest (Chicago AL)
2006
.305 - MLB Average
.324 - Highest (Cleveland)
.285 - Lowest (Oakland)
I'll admit I'm a novice at using this stat to look at team-wide offenses, and I'm still learning how it applies to individual players. (For an interesting article on David Wright's season and this stat, go here.). As a general statement, it does seem to be in line with the overall quality of an offense. Tampa's OPS+ is 111, tops in the league; they're hitting .315 on balls in play, also tops in the league. Likewise, Oakland is last in the league in OPS+ and last in the league in BABIP at .265. The White Sox, for example, have been among the worst in the league in this category for several years and are again this year. So I'm assuming a correlation between the quality of hitters on your team and BABIP.
The reason I brought this stat up in relation to the Yankees, is that their BABIPs (RISP and overall) are numbers more typical of a bad offense. And of all the things I can say about the Yankees, I can't say they're a bad offense. They've been bad lately, but they're scoring 5.4 R/G on the season (2nd in the league) and are among the top five in the American League in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+, home runs and stolen bases.
Their BABIPs put them down with teams like the Royals and the Mariners and the White Sox, which makes me think the Yanks' numbers have the potential to rise as the season progresses. Which should/could equate to more hits and more runs. Of course, the stat is also a measure of defensive efficiency (turning batted balls in play into outs), so maybe they've just had a lot of glove being flashed against them . . . or they have some extra hits heading their way to balance things out a bit.
Last night in Atlanta, the Yanks were 2-9 with RISP. However, one of those hits was a key in helping them to an 8-4 victory, and one of their bigger hits in a couple of weeks. With the bases loaded and two outs in a 1-1 game in the 6th, Alex Rodriguez delivered a line drive single to right to score two and give New York a lead it wouldn't relinquish.
(The "Where We Would We Be Without Wishful Thinking?" Edition
Or "Determined to Make You Sick of RISP" Edition)
All Stats Thru Tuesday, June 23
Pete Abraham took a critical look at the Yankees' recent woes yesterday afternoon, in the simply titled "Breaking down the slump."
We've spent a lot of time focusing on the questions in the back-end of the starting rotation and bullpen in recent weeks. In the meantime the everyday starting nine has crumbled. As P.A. points out, the team does have a 3.89 ERA in the 13 games since New York arrived in Fenway Park two weeks ago.
Offense: What else could it be? The Yankees are hitting .240 with a .326 on-base percentage and a .394 slugging percentage in those 13 games and averaging 4.0 runs. In their previous 57 games, they were averaging 5.7 runs and hitting .277/.356/.482 as a team.
Clutch hitting: The Yankees were hitting .266 with runners in scoring position over the first 57 games. Not great, but it was working. They are at .238 since. If you discount that 15-0 game against the Mets, it’s .194. They’ve fallen off the cliff of clutch.
Clutch hitting: The Yankees were hitting .266 with runners in scoring position over the first 57 games. Not great, but it was working. They are at .238 since. If you discount that 15-0 game against the Mets, it’s .194. They’ve fallen off the cliff of clutch.
This stretch has dropped the Yanks to 11th in the American League in BA/RISP at .261. That's the bottom five in the league, which is rounded out by:
.256 Texas
.250 Oakland
.246 Chicago
.231 Seattle
Overall, not the company you want your line-ups to be paling around with.
Specifically, what have the Yankees done poorly with RISP, which are the situations that are defining their offensive troubles as much as anything of late?
Double plays/RISP: They've grounded into the second most DPs in the league when presented a good scoring opportunity. But the team that's first has had 43 more plate appearances in these situations.
31 in 826 PAs - Toronto
27 in 773 PAs - New York
26 in 756 PAs - Minnesota
24 in 685 PAs - Detroit
24 in 783 PAs - Boston
Sacrifice Flies: They're 2nd to last in the American League in SFs/RISP. The Yanks have 15; the Royals have 10. The Royals, by the way, are hitting about the same as New York with RISP: .262 to .261. Again, not exactly the offense you want to pattern yourselves after.
There are things the Yankees have done well with RISP, relative to the rest of their A.L. brethren.
a. They've hit the second most doubles (42; the Jays have 48).
b. They've hit the most home runs (21).
c. They're 13-0 in stolen bases. That total ranks 7th in this category, but Cleveland is the only other team that's been perfect in these situations and they have 7 steals.
d. They're 3rd in walks at 102 (Boston and Tampa have 113).
e. Maybe surprisingly, they haven't struck out an inordinate amount of time with RISP. And K's are the silent cousin of the Real Rally Killers, i.e. double plays. They're tied for 7th with Minnesota at 117. Tampa has the most with 171. As an aside, the Rays have also had the most RISP opportunities with 877 plate appearances.
f. They're in the top 5 in the A.L. in OBP/RISP:
.394 Boston
.371 Tampa
.368 Cleveland
.367 Baltimore
.364 New York
g. Thanks to the aforementioned doubles & home run totals, they're third in SLG/RISP at .364.
This doesn't appear to be a team that has some inherent trait that forces them to go into the fetal position when there are runners standing on second base or third base or both. This is a team with an .805 OPS/RISP. The league average is .769.
Is their propensity to hit into double plays a function of bad luck? Their age (slow feet & sometimes tired/lazy bats)? A fault of not "being able to grind things out in a big spot"?
What about not being able to hit a sac fly every now and then with a guy on third base? It has been cited many times, by fans, talk show hosts and the media in general, that this is a poor situational baseball team. And this is the kind of nugget that supports the hysteria. Making it somewhat less hysterical.
The one potential silver lining I do want to point out is their BABIP or Batting Average on Balls in Play. For those unfamiliar with this stat, here it from the proverbial horse's mouth. From Baseball Prospectus:
Batting Average on balls put into play. A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290.
The average BABIP in the A.L. with runners in scoring position this year is .296. The Yanks are at .283, which is in the bottom 5 in the league:
.245 - Seattle
.275 - Oakland
.276 - Chicago
.283 - New York
.284 - Minnesota
In all situations, the Yankees BABIP is .287 is 11th in the A.L.
From how I understand the stat, that number is going to continually try and pull itself towards the .300 range. And at quick glance, this seems to be a consistent stat over the last several, full seasons.
2008
.302 - MLB Average
.325 - Highest (Texas)
.281 - Lowest (Chicago AL)
2007
.305 - MLB Average
.323 - Highest (Detroit)
.278 - Lowest (Chicago AL)
2006
.305 - MLB Average
.324 - Highest (Cleveland)
.285 - Lowest (Oakland)
I'll admit I'm a novice at using this stat to look at team-wide offenses, and I'm still learning how it applies to individual players. (For an interesting article on David Wright's season and this stat, go here.). As a general statement, it does seem to be in line with the overall quality of an offense. Tampa's OPS+ is 111, tops in the league; they're hitting .315 on balls in play, also tops in the league. Likewise, Oakland is last in the league in OPS+ and last in the league in BABIP at .265. The White Sox, for example, have been among the worst in the league in this category for several years and are again this year. So I'm assuming a correlation between the quality of hitters on your team and BABIP.
The reason I brought this stat up in relation to the Yankees, is that their BABIPs (RISP and overall) are numbers more typical of a bad offense. And of all the things I can say about the Yankees, I can't say they're a bad offense. They've been bad lately, but they're scoring 5.4 R/G on the season (2nd in the league) and are among the top five in the American League in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+, home runs and stolen bases.
Their BABIPs put them down with teams like the Royals and the Mariners and the White Sox, which makes me think the Yanks' numbers have the potential to rise as the season progresses. Which should/could equate to more hits and more runs. Of course, the stat is also a measure of defensive efficiency (turning batted balls in play into outs), so maybe they've just had a lot of glove being flashed against them . . . or they have some extra hits heading their way to balance things out a bit.
Last night in Atlanta, the Yanks were 2-9 with RISP. However, one of those hits was a key in helping them to an 8-4 victory, and one of their bigger hits in a couple of weeks. With the bases loaded and two outs in a 1-1 game in the 6th, Alex Rodriguez delivered a line drive single to right to score two and give New York a lead it wouldn't relinquish.
