Thursday, May 28, 2009
Even. Pt. 2
(The "Not Really Even" Edition)
The Red Sox were on the verge of relinquishing sole possession of first place to the Yankees this afternoon. Josh Beckett said, "To hell with that."
In a vintage performance, the Boston right hander threw his second excellent start in a row and paced the Sox to a 3-1 victory in the Metrodome. Beckett's pitching line of 7/3/1/1/4/8 followed up an 8/5/1/0/1/5 vs. the Mets and his ERA now stands at 4.60. Considering that number was 7.22 heading into May, he's made major strides to right the ship.
I may have over-stated Beckett being a "real concern" for the Sox at this point, as he really hasn't had a bad start this month. While not dominant (today's eight strikeouts were his most since April 30), he's been consistently good. In his five starts this month he didn't allow more than three runs in any start, never pitched less than six innings, allowed more than six hits only once and had a BB:K ratio of 12:28.
Rob Neyer took some notes while watching today's game. Here was his note on Beckett:
More and more I'm learning the danger of simply relying on ERA as a barometer of a pitcher's level of performance. I should've dug a little deeper before lumping Beckett in with Lester, and making a blanket statement about the top of Boston's rotation. I guess you get what you pay for; I was on my lunch break after all.
It was a good game to listen to. In an odd twist, both starting catchers and managers got tossed in back-to-back half-innings. Mike Redmond was ejected for the first time in his career arguing a play at the plate that gave the Sox their 3rd run in the 7th; Gardenhire was run soon after. And then Varitek was thrown out in the bottom of the inning, presumably (and intelligently I might add) protecting Beckett who was yelling on the mound after not getting a strike call. Francona ran out to give his two cents and got the early exit as well. Todd Tichenor, a younger ump, was behind the plate. Don't know if it was a case of a young guy being overly sensitive, or two veteran catcher/manager tandems throwing their weight around a bit with a green umpire.
And speaking of Varitek, Neyer made the point that he has 10 HR now, after totaling 13 all of last year. In fact main rate stats are all up now: .248/.320/.541 this year vs. .220/.313/.359 in '08. Varitek has never slugged as high as .541 in his career. In fact the only time he's been over .500 was 2003 (.512). He probably won't keep up this pace all year, but one thing's for certain: for all the pros and cons that were dished in the off-season about his signing, it's now hard to believe that it was so hard to come to fruition. It looks like a no-brainer.
Before I give Boston and New York (and Rob Neyer) a break for the rest of the night, I just wanted to address one snide comment Neyer made in a post this morning, commenting on Chien-Ming Wang being in pitching limbo:
The funny thing is the starting staffs for both teams haven't been very good this year. At all. New York's starters' ERA of 4.88 ranks 9th in the American League, which is a marked improvement from where they stood a couple of weeks ago. Boston's mark of 5.36 is "good" for 12th in the A.L. I know, I know I just made the point of ERA sometimes being misleading. Here's where the two teams' starters stand in some other categories:
Walks (both lousy)
115 - New York, 3rd worst
112 - Boston, 4th worst
Strikeouts (both pretty good)
218 - Boston (3rd)
211 - New York (5th)
OPS (both lousy)
.806 - Boston (12th)
.789 - New York (9th)
HR Allowed (both blah)
35 - New York (6th most)
34 - Boston (7th most)
The staffs of the two old rivals have been remarkably similar. Their stats are very close, and there are recurring themes that continue to face both organizations when it comes to their rotations: injury questions (Dice-K and Wang); dilemmas/roles of young pitchers (Hughes, Joba and Buchholz); inconsistency from talented arms (Lester and Burnett); reliance on two aces (Sabathia and Beckett); 5th starter questions; and two old warhorses trying to stay on top of their game (Pettitte and Wakefield).
So Neyer can suggest these two teams are dealing from a place of strength when it comes to starting pitching. But so far, the rotations have been not a strength, but a source of consternation and chaos.
----
Quiet night in the bigs tonight. Cubs and Dodgers are wrapping up a tight game in Wrigley. Braves and Snakes are dueling it out in the desert. That's it.
The Cavs really are on the brink now. Somehow they trail 79-78 heading into the final quarter. I've been in and out of the NBA game, opting to pay more attention to my writing and the Cubs game.
(The "Not Really Even" Edition)
The Red Sox were on the verge of relinquishing sole possession of first place to the Yankees this afternoon. Josh Beckett said, "To hell with that."
In a vintage performance, the Boston right hander threw his second excellent start in a row and paced the Sox to a 3-1 victory in the Metrodome. Beckett's pitching line of 7/3/1/1/4/8 followed up an 8/5/1/0/1/5 vs. the Mets and his ERA now stands at 4.60. Considering that number was 7.22 heading into May, he's made major strides to right the ship.
I may have over-stated Beckett being a "real concern" for the Sox at this point, as he really hasn't had a bad start this month. While not dominant (today's eight strikeouts were his most since April 30), he's been consistently good. In his five starts this month he didn't allow more than three runs in any start, never pitched less than six innings, allowed more than six hits only once and had a BB:K ratio of 12:28.
Rob Neyer took some notes while watching today's game. Here was his note on Beckett:
• Josh Beckett entered Thursday's game with a 5.01 ERA, but there's really been nothing wrong with him that a little luck won't cure, as he's struck out 51 batters in 56 innings but given up a .346 batting average on balls in play (his career mark is .303). Well, he could use more than just a little luck. He could use a bit of control, too, as his walk rate is more than twice as high this year as in 2007. My guess is that we'll never see the 2007 version of Beckett again, but that he'll settle in with an ERA this season in the low 4's, which is good enough.
More and more I'm learning the danger of simply relying on ERA as a barometer of a pitcher's level of performance. I should've dug a little deeper before lumping Beckett in with Lester, and making a blanket statement about the top of Boston's rotation. I guess you get what you pay for; I was on my lunch break after all.
It was a good game to listen to. In an odd twist, both starting catchers and managers got tossed in back-to-back half-innings. Mike Redmond was ejected for the first time in his career arguing a play at the plate that gave the Sox their 3rd run in the 7th; Gardenhire was run soon after. And then Varitek was thrown out in the bottom of the inning, presumably (and intelligently I might add) protecting Beckett who was yelling on the mound after not getting a strike call. Francona ran out to give his two cents and got the early exit as well. Todd Tichenor, a younger ump, was behind the plate. Don't know if it was a case of a young guy being overly sensitive, or two veteran catcher/manager tandems throwing their weight around a bit with a green umpire.
And speaking of Varitek, Neyer made the point that he has 10 HR now, after totaling 13 all of last year. In fact main rate stats are all up now: .248/.320/.541 this year vs. .220/.313/.359 in '08. Varitek has never slugged as high as .541 in his career. In fact the only time he's been over .500 was 2003 (.512). He probably won't keep up this pace all year, but one thing's for certain: for all the pros and cons that were dished in the off-season about his signing, it's now hard to believe that it was so hard to come to fruition. It looks like a no-brainer.
Before I give Boston and New York (and Rob Neyer) a break for the rest of the night, I just wanted to address one snide comment Neyer made in a post this morning, commenting on Chien-Ming Wang being in pitching limbo:
It's "funny" how the Yankees and the Red Sox have more starters than they can use, and almost every other team doesn't really have enough. In case you're wondering why they're both in the playoffs (almost) every year ...
The funny thing is the starting staffs for both teams haven't been very good this year. At all. New York's starters' ERA of 4.88 ranks 9th in the American League, which is a marked improvement from where they stood a couple of weeks ago. Boston's mark of 5.36 is "good" for 12th in the A.L. I know, I know I just made the point of ERA sometimes being misleading. Here's where the two teams' starters stand in some other categories:
Walks (both lousy)
115 - New York, 3rd worst
112 - Boston, 4th worst
Strikeouts (both pretty good)
218 - Boston (3rd)
211 - New York (5th)
OPS (both lousy)
.806 - Boston (12th)
.789 - New York (9th)
HR Allowed (both blah)
35 - New York (6th most)
34 - Boston (7th most)
The staffs of the two old rivals have been remarkably similar. Their stats are very close, and there are recurring themes that continue to face both organizations when it comes to their rotations: injury questions (Dice-K and Wang); dilemmas/roles of young pitchers (Hughes, Joba and Buchholz); inconsistency from talented arms (Lester and Burnett); reliance on two aces (Sabathia and Beckett); 5th starter questions; and two old warhorses trying to stay on top of their game (Pettitte and Wakefield).
So Neyer can suggest these two teams are dealing from a place of strength when it comes to starting pitching. But so far, the rotations have been not a strength, but a source of consternation and chaos.
----
Quiet night in the bigs tonight. Cubs and Dodgers are wrapping up a tight game in Wrigley. Braves and Snakes are dueling it out in the desert. That's it.
The Cavs really are on the brink now. Somehow they trail 79-78 heading into the final quarter. I've been in and out of the NBA game, opting to pay more attention to my writing and the Cubs game.
Even.
(To be thrown off by a 1/2 game this afternoon)
I hope my buddy doesn't mind me snagging a snippet of an email I wrote to him the other day:
Well, now that the Yanks are back to even in the A.L. East, they can begin the business of actually building that game or two lead by the morning of June 9.
Two weeks ago I highlighted the May 19-June 4 stretch as an interesting/challenging one for Boston. They're 5-4 now, with still seven games left on the current road trip, this afternoon in Minny; three in Toronto; and three in Detroit.
If the Yankees were going to start nippin' at their heels, this was the chunk in the schedule when that was going to happen. However, when it comes to the Sawx there's no real demise to speak of, nothing to get gleeful about. Yet. Sure, they've scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games and the Big Papi Problem doesn't seem to be getting any better. But three of the top four guys in the current line-up are still hitting .307/.339/.373. And Lowell, whose batting fifth today is hitting over .300 as well. Jason Bay continues to sport an OPS north of 1.000
The real concern is Beckett (5.01 ERA) & Lester (6.07), and Dice-K (8.82 in 16.1 IP) to a lesser extent. They can live with Matsuzaka floundering in the short-term until he gets his feet back under him. They can't live with the front of their rotation continuing to be so hittable.
(To be thrown off by a 1/2 game this afternoon)
I hope my buddy doesn't mind me snagging a snippet of an email I wrote to him the other day:
Look, I'm not getting excited yet. I'm really not. I still think Boston is going to win the division; they're still my favorite to get the World Series. However . . . some of these cracks need immediate attention from them. Ortiz? I honestly think he's going to right the ship. He's never going to hit 40 home runs again, but I think by mid-summer he'll be hitting respectably again with some pop. I just can't believe that he's just done.
But if he is . . . then that's a huge advantage for the Yankees.
Papelbon is still really good, but I like the fact that he's showing some vulnerability. Maybe people are sitting fastball more? Santos certainly did on Saturday. I didn't see the pitch to Mauer last night.
Their rotation is in some upheaval (will Dice-K return to form? What about Penny's spot in the rotation long-term?), and they've had some bumps & bruises so far too.
Long-term perspective, I think the Sox win the division and the Yanks are fighting for the Wild Card.
Short-term? There's no reason the Yanks, with the way they're playing, can't stay step-for-step with the Sox for the next 2 weeks, leading up the June 9/10/11 series at Fenway.
And I wouldn't be shocked if the Yanks head to Boston up a game or 2 in the standings by the time that series rolls around.
But if he is . . . then that's a huge advantage for the Yankees.
Papelbon is still really good, but I like the fact that he's showing some vulnerability. Maybe people are sitting fastball more? Santos certainly did on Saturday. I didn't see the pitch to Mauer last night.
Their rotation is in some upheaval (will Dice-K return to form? What about Penny's spot in the rotation long-term?), and they've had some bumps & bruises so far too.
Long-term perspective, I think the Sox win the division and the Yanks are fighting for the Wild Card.
Short-term? There's no reason the Yanks, with the way they're playing, can't stay step-for-step with the Sox for the next 2 weeks, leading up the June 9/10/11 series at Fenway.
And I wouldn't be shocked if the Yanks head to Boston up a game or 2 in the standings by the time that series rolls around.
Well, now that the Yanks are back to even in the A.L. East, they can begin the business of actually building that game or two lead by the morning of June 9.
Two weeks ago I highlighted the May 19-June 4 stretch as an interesting/challenging one for Boston. They're 5-4 now, with still seven games left on the current road trip, this afternoon in Minny; three in Toronto; and three in Detroit.
If the Yankees were going to start nippin' at their heels, this was the chunk in the schedule when that was going to happen. However, when it comes to the Sawx there's no real demise to speak of, nothing to get gleeful about. Yet. Sure, they've scored three runs or less in 6 of their last 10 games and the Big Papi Problem doesn't seem to be getting any better. But three of the top four guys in the current line-up are still hitting .307/.339/.373. And Lowell, whose batting fifth today is hitting over .300 as well. Jason Bay continues to sport an OPS north of 1.000
The real concern is Beckett (5.01 ERA) & Lester (6.07), and Dice-K (8.82 in 16.1 IP) to a lesser extent. They can live with Matsuzaka floundering in the short-term until he gets his feet back under him. They can't live with the front of their rotation continuing to be so hittable.
