Tuesday, August 25, 2009

The Object of the World's Loathing
(The Yankees' October Mode Edition)

The Yankees are back home in New York tonight after completing a 7-3 road trip over the last two weeks. In the process of that trip, they put to rest all realistic thoughts that they'll be challenged for the American League East title over the final six weeks of the regular season. For the first time since 2006, the Yanks have entered what myself and a few of my buddies have dubbed "October Mode." As a baseball fan of a particular team, it's a comfortable place to be. Without putting any kind of moniker on it, Joe Girardi, a veteran of a couple of October Mode seasons during his days as the Yankee catcher, is apparently well aware of what this phase of the season means.

From Pete Abraham's blog yesterday, in relation to how hard the Yankees are going to push for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs:

The race is on for home field advantage in the playoffs. The Yankees are 78-46 and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County and Planet Earth are 74-48.
The teams will play four more times head to head. Once at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 14 in a makeup game and three times in Anaheim starting Sept. 21.
Joe Girardi said yesterday that his team will push for home field but not at the expense of making sure his players, especially the pitchers, get the right amount of time off. That makes good sense.

October Mode means balancing out the house cleaning necessary for the rest of the season (and to be sure, for the Yankees home field advantage would be advantageous against a team like the Angels) & making sure the regulars are healed and well-rested. It doesn't make for the most compelling baseball in the world, but it's a small price to pay to assured of October baseball, and to put a team in the best possible position for success in the post-season.

Of course, the last time the Yankees were able to enjoy October Mode, without any blip on the September radar, in the same season that resulted in a World Championship was 11 years ago - 1998. Going into September of that year the Yankees had an 18.5 game lead on the way to 114 regular season wins. That team was in October Mode by the All Star Break.

In 1999, they slipped into October Mode, then out, then comfortably back in for the last couple weeks of the season. Going into September, they had a comfortable 7.5 game lead over Boston and appeared to be at a cruising altitude. However, by the morning of September 14, the lead was down to 3.5 as Boston completed an improbable four-game weekend sweep at Yankee Stadium. A series that included the infamous Pedro 17-strikeout game, which took its rightful place in Yankee-Sox lore.

On the night of the 14th, the Yanks were down 6-1 going into the top of the 8th at Toronto, and with the Sox winning easily, the division lead was about to drop to 2.5. Of course, the dynasty was still alive & kicking at that point, and the Yankees bombed their way to nine runs in the final two frames for a 10-6 victory.

From that point they wheeled out an 8-1 run in their next nine games pushing their lead to a definitive six games, and enabling a final taste of October Mode in the process.

In 2000, the season of their last title, they bungled their way through October Mode, gasping their way to the finish line. Entering September of that year they had a comfortable 5 game lead on Boston and 5.5 on the Blue Jays. Tripped up by a poor final month, including a stretch in which they went 3-15, the Yankees saw their lead fall to 2.5 games by the last day of the season. Of course, they were able to right the ship quickly once the playoffs started and bounced back to win their third title in a row.

In more recent time, any October Modes (2006 comes to mind, when they were up eight games heading into September) have done little to benefit the team's final fate in the post-season.

We'll see where this early entry into October Mode leads this time around.
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Pennant races, all good ones, all memorable ones, have those catalyst games that remain the mile markers for history. I don't know that a good race remains - the Rockies are looking more & more like a lock for October with each passing day - but Colorado's remarkable extra-inning, walk-off win against the Giants last night felt like one of those definitive games that marks a season. It stamped the Rockies as the clear favorites for the N.L.'s Wild Card (the lead is now up to four on the Giants after the 3-1 series win) and has put the Dodgers on notice that they're going into a hornet's nest starting tonight. In the race for homefield advantage in the N.L. playoffs, the Phillies have the current lead, with the Dodgers one behind in the loss column and the Rockies and Cards both four games behind. Do the Giants have another push at this final spot in them? Everyone else in the N.L. (Braves, Marlins, Cubs, et. al.) are clearly on the fringe of being legitimate participants.

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