Thursday, July 30, 2009
On the Ropes or Down for the Count?
(The Rays on the Brink Edition)
Without much deliberation, I'm sticking by words from Monday: with the loss-column deficit at eight games, the Rays aren't going to catch the Yankees this season.
As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus lists the Yankees chances of reaching the post-season at 89.5%. According to their simulations, the only other team that has a better shot is the Dodgers who are 98% assured of playing October baseball.
If you wanted to stretch me to the outer reaches of plausibility, I guess I'd at least listen to an argument why Texas (four games behind New York in the loss column) could catch the Yanks. But I ain't buying it.
The Yankees haven't metaphorically been able to relax in a hammock during the dog days of summer since that lost season of 2004. I can only hope that this season doesn't have a similar conclusion.
On this date five years ago, the Yanks were 63-38, one game better than their record now, and enjoyed a 7.5 game cushion on 2nd place Boston. While the Red Sox are closer in the standings this time around, the confident feeling of this team landing in the post-season isn't any less.
This is not to suggest I'm going to go off with a lemonade in my hand, kick back and doze through the rest of the regular season. There is work to be done. Aside from the business of putting the finishing touches on the organization of the pitching staff and getting back to (and maintaining) 100% health (Aceves, Gardner, the creaky bones of Damon, Matsui, et. al.), there is the matter of saving some face against Boston in the remaining 10 games. More than bragging rights in the Connecticut border war, the stake of the division is an important one for New York. Consider the difference between opening the ALDS in Anaheim vs. opening it vs. the A.L. Central winner at Yankee Stadium 2. Consider the difference between playing a Game 7 at Fenway Park vs. the mallpark in the Bronx. And I don't think anything else needs to be said on the matter. Winning the A.L. East this year isn't about tacking up another division championship banner; it could be at the very core of dictating whether this team can erase the recent trend of post-season failure.
---
While the Red Sox are clearly scuffling in this time frame, incredibly dropping 6.5 games to New York in the standings in less than two weeks, I'm not convinced that Rays are going to be able to make a run at them to close the current five-game loss-column gap.
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Which, in a roundabout way, brings me back to Boston. Although the denizens of the Fens are feeling their customary melancholia when things aren't going well, I still think they don't have much to sweat here. Maybe it's my pro-Boston bias (and by pro-Boston, I'm referring to my belief that they're still the best short series team in the sport, not pro-Boston in a pom-pom sort of way - just want to be clear on that one), but I still think they're going to win the East. Tampa's dropped the ball here, quickly turning my effusiveness about a three-team race into meaningless and premature babble. And even taking my optimistic hope to the furthest limits, I can't picture a world in which the Texas Rangers are pushing the Sox for a playoff spot in the rough waters of the stretch run of the season, i.e. mid to late September.
We'll see if the Sox play to my expectations. Right now they look as vulnerable as they have in several seasons. Both for reasons of their own doing (sticking with Penny too long (?), an over-reliance on the return of John Smoltz) and by bad fortune (Dice-K; Wakefield's injury), their starting rotation is out-of-whack.
The quick fix lies on the horizon. Or more specifically over the Canadian border. I think the tides have turned in favor of a Boston-Toronto trade, and I will be mildly surprised if the Sox don't have Halladay in their rotation by the weekend. And once that happens, the Red Sox will have made their path to the World Series very clear & distinct, and the prospect of failure (especially at the hands of the Yankees) that much more unacceptable.
(The Rays on the Brink Edition)
Without much deliberation, I'm sticking by words from Monday: with the loss-column deficit at eight games, the Rays aren't going to catch the Yankees this season.
As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus lists the Yankees chances of reaching the post-season at 89.5%. According to their simulations, the only other team that has a better shot is the Dodgers who are 98% assured of playing October baseball.
If you wanted to stretch me to the outer reaches of plausibility, I guess I'd at least listen to an argument why Texas (four games behind New York in the loss column) could catch the Yanks. But I ain't buying it.
The Yankees haven't metaphorically been able to relax in a hammock during the dog days of summer since that lost season of 2004. I can only hope that this season doesn't have a similar conclusion.
On this date five years ago, the Yanks were 63-38, one game better than their record now, and enjoyed a 7.5 game cushion on 2nd place Boston. While the Red Sox are closer in the standings this time around, the confident feeling of this team landing in the post-season isn't any less.
This is not to suggest I'm going to go off with a lemonade in my hand, kick back and doze through the rest of the regular season. There is work to be done. Aside from the business of putting the finishing touches on the organization of the pitching staff and getting back to (and maintaining) 100% health (Aceves, Gardner, the creaky bones of Damon, Matsui, et. al.), there is the matter of saving some face against Boston in the remaining 10 games. More than bragging rights in the Connecticut border war, the stake of the division is an important one for New York. Consider the difference between opening the ALDS in Anaheim vs. opening it vs. the A.L. Central winner at Yankee Stadium 2. Consider the difference between playing a Game 7 at Fenway Park vs. the mallpark in the Bronx. And I don't think anything else needs to be said on the matter. Winning the A.L. East this year isn't about tacking up another division championship banner; it could be at the very core of dictating whether this team can erase the recent trend of post-season failure.
---
While the Red Sox are clearly scuffling in this time frame, incredibly dropping 6.5 games to New York in the standings in less than two weeks, I'm not convinced that Rays are going to be able to make a run at them to close the current five-game loss-column gap.
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Which, in a roundabout way, brings me back to Boston. Although the denizens of the Fens are feeling their customary melancholia when things aren't going well, I still think they don't have much to sweat here. Maybe it's my pro-Boston bias (and by pro-Boston, I'm referring to my belief that they're still the best short series team in the sport, not pro-Boston in a pom-pom sort of way - just want to be clear on that one), but I still think they're going to win the East. Tampa's dropped the ball here, quickly turning my effusiveness about a three-team race into meaningless and premature babble. And even taking my optimistic hope to the furthest limits, I can't picture a world in which the Texas Rangers are pushing the Sox for a playoff spot in the rough waters of the stretch run of the season, i.e. mid to late September.
We'll see if the Sox play to my expectations. Right now they look as vulnerable as they have in several seasons. Both for reasons of their own doing (sticking with Penny too long (?), an over-reliance on the return of John Smoltz) and by bad fortune (Dice-K; Wakefield's injury), their starting rotation is out-of-whack.
The quick fix lies on the horizon. Or more specifically over the Canadian border. I think the tides have turned in favor of a Boston-Toronto trade, and I will be mildly surprised if the Sox don't have Halladay in their rotation by the weekend. And once that happens, the Red Sox will have made their path to the World Series very clear & distinct, and the prospect of failure (especially at the hands of the Yankees) that much more unacceptable.
