Thursday, May 29, 2003

Despite What Standings Say, Phils Not Out of It Yet

As I watched Gary Sheffield absolutely crush a ball into the left-field seats in Turner Field last night, one thought went through my head: the Braves are at their offensive apex right now. Their offense cannot play any better than this.

Surely, a team can’t do much better than hitting four home runs in a row, and that’s just what the Braves did between Chipper Jones’ walk-off homer on Tuesday night, and the three consecutive homers (Rafael Furcal, Mark DeRosa, Sheffield) to start last night’s game against the Reds. The toughest start to a game for a pitcher (Jeff Austin) that I’ve ever seen. In fact, it was only the second time in baseball history that a team started a game with three home runs out of the chute. Marvelle Wynne, Tony Gwynn and John Kruk pulled off the feat for the Padres against the Giants on April 13, 1987.

The thing to note about being at an apex is that there is a downward slope on the horizon. And I’m a big believer that one is coming.

Consider the figureheads of this recent offensive onslaught by Atlanta, Furcal and Sheffield:

Furcal 2002: .275, .323 OBP, .387 SLG, 8 HR, 47 RBI, 43/114 BB/K
Furcal 2003: .341, .406, .565, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 26/25

Bill James commented in a recent ESPN chat that plate discipline, i.e. taking more pitches, being more selective at the plate and not swinging at bad pitches, can be learned, but only at a young age. For major league players, he wrote, plate discipline acts as an innate ability. His comment was something like, "You can't teach Ozzie Guillen to take a walk anymore than you can teach Doug Jones to throw a fastball." My friend, who I discussed this with briefly, wasn’t convinced on this point at all. And this might be an example that flies in the face of James’ reasoning.

Last year Furcal struck out once every 5.5 at-bats, and walked every 14.8. This season the rates are 8.57 and 8.92 respectively. It appears that someone thought about, and worked on, plate discipline over the winter and into this spring. What’s interesting about Furcal is that in 2000, his first full year, his BB/K were almost even at 73/80. Maybe last year was the aberration and this year he’s getting back to the discipline that he "learned" when he was younger.

What’s most striking, besides the obvious jumps in all of his averages, is the fact that his home run rate is way up and he’s improved his BB/K ratio.

This is an interesting case, and will bear watching as the season progresses. He’s on his way to a great season, no question about it. He’s going to hit more home runs, walk more and strike out less. He’ll have higher numbers across the board compared to last year. However, I have hard time believing that Furcal will finish the season hitting in the mid-.300s with an OPS approaching 1.000.

Sheffield 2002: .307, .404, .512, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 72/53
Sheffield 2003: .349, .427, .645, 13 HR, 46 RBI, 25/16

Sheffield’s surge in the latter half of his career just might end up getting him into the Hall of Fame. It’s been that good, and this year he’s been out of sight so far. His BB:K ratio is always great, so I’ll leave that one alone. What I think is inflated right now, in particular, is his batting average. His last four season BAs are: .301, .325, .311, .307. It’s hard to believe he’s going to hit much better than .330 this year (which is a great year, mind you), and that alone would be 23 point jump from last year. Granted, he missed some time due to injury in 2002, so that skews the numbers a little. But a 42-point hike in BA, and a 133-point jump in SLG seem unrealistic to me.

My point is that the Braves are playing over their heads a bit. I just used these two players in particular because they are the ones being bandied about as MVP candidates, and as good as they are, I don’t think they’re this good. The team's overall numbers play out in similar fashion.

Last year the Braves scored 4.4 runs/game, which was in the middle of the pack in the NL (tied for 7th with the Dodgers). They hit .260 .331 .409 – all numbers indicative of a middle-of-the-pack offensive team.

So far in 2003, they are destroying NL pitching. They lead the league in runs by 17 (5.8/game). They also lead the league in batting average, SLG and home runs, and are 2nd in OBP. Only two teams in the last ten years have scored more over a National League season than the Braves are averaging right now: the '96 and '00 Rockies. And we all know about Coors Field.

I picked the Braves to win the NL East based on their pitching relative to the rest of the division, not because of their bats. This is essentially the same offensive personnel as last season, which makes this start so surprising, and also makes it difficult to believe they’re going to keep this torrid pace up.

Which brings me to the Phillies…

…the “small market” team that cried poverty for a decade, now trying to compete with the big boys as it prepares for a new park. A lot of pundits, including guys I have tremendous respect for, like Rob Neyer, were big believers in Philadelphia this year. I was not. Offense was improved, for sure. Pitching was still so-so in my book, especially the Pen.

Today, on May 29, they are 7 ½ games behind the Braves in 3rd place, and are teetering on the edge of having their chances for a division title slip away before the season is half over. Not looking good, right?

Well, as much as I think the Braves’ numbers indicate an upcoming cooling off, the Phillies' numbers tell me a hot-streak awaits. They’re four games over .500, and I think their offense is only going to perform better. I don’t think they’re catching the Braves, but they’re not going to get blown out of the water either. In other words, this could turn into a race after all.

The Phillies currently rank 15th in the NL in batting at .248. Only the Mets (surprise!) are worse. Despite that, they are 7th in the league in runs scored (4.79/game). They're not hitting a a lot of home runs or have a high SLG pct., so it's not like they're getting runs in bunches. No, what they're excelling at is drawing bases on balls; their 223 rank 2nd in the NL behind the Rockies. They walked a lot last year too: 640, 2nd behind Arizona. They also hit 11 points higher in 2002 than they're hitting now, and scored 4.41 R/G.

My point? Walk rates usually stay consistent for teams with the same personnel, and I expect the Phillies to again be near the top of the league in BB again. I also expect their team batting average to go up as the year progresses, which means they're going to move up the ladder in NL runs scored.

Two of their prominent players, in particular, have done virtually nothing to this point: Pat Burrell, who actually was benched for last night's game against the Mets, and David Bell.

Burrell 2002: .282 .376 .544 37 HR 116 RBI 89 BB 153 K
Burrell 2003: .207 .326 .440 10 HR 25 RBI 31 BB 61 K

As much as I can't believe that Rafeal Furcal is going to hit 70 points higher than last year and boost his SLG by 180 points, I feel the same way about Burrell, just the other way around. His numbers are only going to go up as the season continues. Assuming that Thome's BA will climb from its current spot at .261 (his power numbers are fine), then the middle of Philly's order will start looking a bit different in July and August.

To finish off my comparsion of Furcal/Sheffield and Burrell/Bell

Bell 2002: .261 .333 .429 20 HR 73 RBI 54 BB 80 K
Bell 2003: .222 .308 .313 2 HR 20 RBI 21 BB 27 K

Like Burrell, you gotta believe Bell is going to start hitting sooner or later.

Oh, and there's one other reason why I think the Phillies can make a run at the Braves: to this point, they're pitching betterthan the Braves.

While the Braves offense has been off-the-charts, no one has mentioned that their pitching has taken a plunge. Last year, they led the NL with a 3.13 ERA; they currently rank 9th in the NL at 4.20 -- that's more than a run-per-game jump. The Phillies, on the other hand, have improved dramatically. Their 3.63 ERA is 4th in the NL, a significant improvement from last year's 4.17. The addition of Kevin Millwood has certainly helped, and Randy Wolf appears on-track for another 200+ IP/3.30 ERA campaign. The surprise to me is the work of the bullpen to this point, which despite Jose Mesa's 5.40 ERA, hasn't been that bad.

Statistical formulae are sometimes nothing more than tools of amusement. But when Pythagoras says that the Braves are out-performing their expected record (based on run differential) by a Major League high four wins, and the Phillies are under-performing by 3, I'll listen. Because I can see with my own eyes that at least two key members of the Braves' line-up aren't going to producing like this all year. And the Phillies' offense has nowhere to go but up.

Call of the Year

John Sterling's: "Thaaaahhh Yankees Win!"

Just kidding. No, the call of the year was Jon Miller's announcing during Ruben Rivera's adventures around the base paths on Tuesday night against the Diamondbacks. I don't know if you can listen to specific calls on MLB.com without paying for one of the audio packages, but I almost feel like it's worth the five bucks (for one month's worth of games) just to hear the call again.

I'm going to borrow some of the game report from ESPN.com to describe the play:

It was 2-all in the Giants' ninth when pinch-hitter Andres Galarraga reached on an error. Rivera came in to pinch-run -- a move that didn't work out too well.

Rivera began running on Grissom's fly that was misjudged for an error by David Dellucci. Rivera initially thought the ball would be caught, so he headed back toward first base.

When the ball dropped, Rivera took off again but missed touching second base and wound up on the infield grass. Rivera backtracked, tagged second and headed to third.

Second baseman Junior Spivey's relay was in plenty of time to get Rivera at third, but the ball skipped away for another error. Rivera bumped into third baseman Alex Cintron and headed home as the ball rolled loose.

Arizona shortstop Tony Womack captured the carom and threw home, and Rivera was easily tagged out. Alou could only shake his head after watching what happened.

When asked what happened, Rivera said, "Whoa, that's really kind of hard to say."


Miller, at the end of his call, called it the worst baserunning in the history of the game. It was so ugly looking, it's hard to argue against that. On Baseball Tonightlast night, Ravech, Reynolds, Valentine and Gammons were having a good laugh about it, and agreed it was about as bad as they've seen. Valentine had one other candidate: Gary Pettis trying to steal home on an intentional walk, which I have hard time getting a mental image to match.

I'll throw one into the ring as well: Bobby Meachem and Dale Berra getting tagged out by Carlton Fisk at the play almost simultaneously in 1985 at Yankee Stadium. That's about as bad as I've seen.

Boston Hierarchy Finally Gets Their Wish

Would really like to get some comments from you guys on this trade, if it goes through. I find it an incredibly interesting one. The only thing stoppping it now is the final go-ahead from Jerry Colangelo. E-mail me your thoughts if you'd like.

Kim's numbers to this point: 7 starts, 43.0 IP 34 H 17 R 17 ER 6 HR 15 BB 33 K 3.56 ERA

He's been a little banged up, hence the low number of games. Numbers aren't bad overall. Good H/IP. The one thing that jumps out at me is the home run balls. That's a good amount for only 43 innings of work.

I'll never understand why the Sox' new regime was so down on Shea Hillenbrand. Everytime I watched him play over the past three seasons, it seemed like he was hitting the ball hard somewhere. A real "live" bat, and a guy who can play both corner positions.

The company line is that they didn't like his plate discipline (7 BB this year), but his OPS of .778 currently ranks 49th in the AL (The three guys ahead of him: Ellis Burks, Eric Chavez, Josh Phelps; the three guys behind him: Bobby Higginson, Ichiro Suzuki and Jerry Hairston, Jr.), which isn't bad if you consider he hasn't hit for power yet. Three HR so far vs. 18 a year ago.

Maybe the Red Sox are making the right move. God knows that Henry/Epstein/James made the right decision re: Todd Walker, Bill Mueller and Kevin Millar. But being a spectator, looking from the outside, I think of Shea Hillenbrand and I think of him hitting line drives somewhere, a tough out. If I was running that team, that would be a tough image to get out of my head. No matter what the numbers said.





Guest Column

Whatever Happened to the Mid-Summer Classic?

by Mike Scarfo

Do you remember when we were kids and the All Star Game seemed to be so exciting? The half way point of the baseball season was that little break we all needed from the daily glance at our favorite teams' boxscores. It was a great reason to get together with your friends and eat too much pizza, drink too much Mountain Dew and was a chance to see a rarity: the American League’s best vs. the National League’s best. I remember being so excited when I was a kid that I could go to a game early in the season, just so I could stuff the ballot boxes with votes for my favorite players. In the old days, B.I. (before internet), this was the only way to make your voice heard on behalf of the players you wanted to see play on that Tuesday night in July.

How times have changed.

Last week I was driving with my girlfriend to get something to eat. Baseball was the last thing on my mind as I pulled into a local Subway restaurant. As I approached the door, my brain was only thinking, "White or wheat?" But as I walked up to the counter, America's Pastime was unexpectedly brought to my attention. To my utter shock and total surprise, there was a large pile of Major League All-Star Ballots on the counter right next to the "Tips are appreciated" cup.

I opened the colorful pamphlet and began to look at some of the names. The first thing I thought about was the joy I used to get when I'd go to Fenway Park or Yankee Stadium and fill these things out. It was serious business back then. Nothing could break my focus on those names on the ballot. With a certain level of intensity I would punch out the little baseball circles next to my favorite players… “Well, you gotta pick Ozzie for short in the NL, but I don’t know about Ripken this year…” “Let’s see…outfielders…Puckett, Winfield and…”

"Do you want mayo?"

"Huh?" I quickly replied, my images of All-Stars gone by broken by the reality of that oddly-cut bread.

"Do you want mayo? On your sandwich?" asked the Subway employee with a lovely tattoo of a pyramid with a red eyeball bulging on his right arm.

It was at that moment I realized how long ago it was since I felt the excitement of punching out those little holes. And I also realized that this game isn't really that special after all. Hell, last year the game ended tied at a touchdown apiece. Really impressive, Bud.

In fact, the All-Star game has turned into a total joke. This year’s game is going to be hosted in what many believe is the worst "new" stadium in baseball, Comiskey Park. The outcome is going decide which league gets the home field advantage in the World Series. My reaction: “Huh?” Why would any sport put any real meaning into an exhibition game? For pride? The era of league pride has vanished with the institution of free agency, as players bouncing from team to team is commonplace. Some players are just as likely to take their one or two at-bats and board their private jet by the 4th inning, then actually stay and root for their fellow All-Stars.

This game has become a disappointment to me because I don't care who wins, I don’t care who plays, and I don't care who wins the homerun derby. I just don't care. The event has been cheapened and all the gimmicks in the world cannot make me change my mind.

Because of this, I’ve decided to answer the question: "What players would best represent what has become of today's All Star Game, with their abundantly over-inflated contracts and pitiful on-field performances?" So in my moment of digression, I have come up with the Mike Scarfo 2003 Inept Performance Team. Yes, these guys are actually on the ballot. So get out to a Subway near you, or any other odd places that have the ballots, order a ham and pastrami and vote.

AL 1B - Hometown hero Paul Konerko. Good ol' Pauly is pounding the sphere at an astronomical BA of .213. His 3 HR and 15 RBI are just the kind of power numbers a team needs from one of its primary run producers.

NL 1B - No brainer: Mo Vaughn. Mo was not available for comment on his nomination for the team because he's busy getting his 274th opinion on his knee. Word has it that the latest doctor's examination revealed that Mo can't touch his toes, or see his toes for that matter, let alone field a grounder.

AL 2B - Luis Rivas. Mr. Rivas' stellar .277 OBP puts him in the starting lineup by just a hair over Carlos Febles of the Royals who is too busy going on and off of the disabled list for the 9th season in a row.

NL 2B - Our second member of the Mets: Robby Alomar! OK, truth be told, his numbers aren't as bad as you might think. But take a look at what this guy has done since going to Shea. Nothing is being too kind. Hall of famers can't do this and not be expected to get ripped for it.

AL 3B - Jeff Cirillo - This career .290 hitter (pre-Mariner days) has solidified his spot on this year's squad by posting a solid .230 batting average. Almost more impressive is that this guy's fallen faster off the face of the earth than that comedian guy that married Darva Conger on "Who wants to marry a millionaire?"

NL 3B - Mark Bellhorn. Last year he hit 27 homeruns and hit .255. This year he’s on pace to hit 6 homeruns and is barely treading .200 Where have you gone Ronnie Santo?

AL SS - Miguel Tejada. Has there ever been a reigning Most Valuable Player that has vanished so much in the season following his award? How do you go from hitting 308-34-131 to hitting 218 on Memorial Day the next year?

NL SS - Rey Sanchez. Rey was unavailable for comment because he was getting auburn highlights prior to the Mets/Phillies game at the Vet.

AL C - Sandy Alomar. Raise your hand if you thought he was still playing? Thought so.

NL C - Michael Barrett. Barrett is hitting .159 on the season. When you're 41 points BELOW the Mendoza line, maybe it’s time to think of another line of work.

AL OF - Gary Matthews, Marty Cordova, Andres Torres. Do you believe they wasted ink printing these guys names on the ballot?

NL OF - Alex Sanchez, Danny Bautista and Roger Cedeno. These three couldn't catch flies next to a pile of horse manure. Boy, doesn't that leave a great visual?

Oh well, at least there's the Pro Bowl to look forward to.

Mike Scarfo was a master at stuffing the ballot boxes. He would be able to punch through 20-25 ballots at a time with ease.


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