Saturday, May 07, 2005
Visions of Crab Cakes Dancing in My Head
Go read about the Yankees somewhere else.
I need a break from thinking about them, at least for one morning. And pretty soon, I might not have to think much about them at all, as far as looking ahead to the post-season is concerned.
It is cold and damp and drizzly, and it’s the middle of May. I’m working on Coffee #1, not sure what exactly to write about today. Not sure what’s worthy of attention.
I’ll start with an email I received from a friend this week. Mike wrote:
Mike, the way this season is going, I don’t know what to believe. It is definitely the most wide-open and unexpected beginning to a baseball season that I can ever remember. There are the Yankees, of course, who are shaping up to be one of the biggest flops in recent memory. Their season win total over/under was 101; they probably won’t get within 15 games of that now.
Then there are the White Sox who won again last night. They’re 22-7, have a commanding 4.5 game lead in the Central and are continuing the Odd Record of the Season by having a lead in every game they’ve played in so far.
I would think you’d have to throw the resurgent Diamondbacks in the mix as one of the season’s big surprises. Coming off a 51-111 season, they’re 18-12 only one back of the Dodgers.
But back to the Orioles. I’m somewhat amazed at how good they’ve been. 19-9 and a 2.5 game lead over Boston right now. I don’t expect that lead over the Sox to last too much longer, but I also don’t see a definitive reason why Baltimore won’t be able to hang with Minnesota/Chicago, Texas, Oakland, Toronto, etc. in the Wild Card race.
Last summer, I wrote about the Rangers, who at that time were in first place by a few games over the A’s. In late July, they were at the top of the league in some major offensive categories (Runs, OPS, HRs), and were average or worse in the pitching department (7th in ERA, 9th in OPS-against and 12th in K/9).
I made the point, believing in a little conventional wisdom, that the Rangers pitching had to get better if they were going to stay in the race. At the time I was writing on this topic, I was also mirroring my blog’s posts on the forums at MLB Center. One of the forum members, Sandy, responded to my critique of the Rangers’ chances with a list of teams that have made the post-season in recent years with mediocre-to-woeful pitching:
On the question of offensive-leaning playoff team. RS = Runs scored: RA = runs allowed.
'03 RedSox - 1st in RS - 8th in RA (lost AL Championship)
'01 Indians - 2nd in RS - 9th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'97 Indians - 3rd in RS - 9th in RA - (lost WS to Marlins)
'97 Mariners - 1st in RS - 11th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'98 Rangers - 2nd in RS - 12th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'99 Rangers - 2nd in RS - 11th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'96 Orioles - 3rd in RS - 8th in RA - (lost AL Championship)
'92 Blue Jays - 2nd in RS - 9th in RA (won WS over Braves)
'93 Phillies - 1st in RS - 6th in RA (lost WS to BlueJays)
'95 Rockies - 1st in RS - LAST in RA (lost in 1st round)
'97 Giants - 4th in RS - 9th in RA (lost in 1st round)
'01 Astros - 2nd in RS - 10th in RA (lost in 1st round)
'03 Braves - 1st in RS - 9th in RA (lost in 1st round)
2004 - Rangers (as of 7/24/2004)2nd in RS - 8th in RA
If you look at the above list, it's actually quite common to get INTO the playoffs with suspect pitching (ranked in the bottom half of the league). Of course, we also see that these teams tend to bow out quite quickly.
(Thanks again, Sandy.)
For the record, the Rangers finished 89-73 last year, 3 games out of first. They ended up 4th in RS (860) and 5th in RA (794). Although I don’t remember the exact details of the Rangers’ stretch run from last season, you can actually make the case that it wasn’t the pitching that deserted them in the latter stages of the season (I have to imagine that they pitched at least decent to warrant a jump from 8th to 5th in league rankings from late July on), but it was their hitting that bottomed out a bit.
In any case, you can be a mediocre pitching team and still be a winning team. Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem usually rings true, and there is not a bias that favors runs allowed over runs scored. If you can score a ton of runs, you can afford to allow some runs as well. It's the run differential that matters.
*As far as actually winning the World Series, that’s probably another matter. In the post-season, there is such an impetus on the top half of a team’s starting rotation, and there is of course a little luck involved. But that’s for another day.
Some of the Orioles’ current AL rankings:
Offense
Runs Scored: 154 (3rd)
Avg.: .293 (1st)
OBP: .348 (3rd)
SLG: .480 (1st)
Defense
Runs Allowed: 122 (4th)
ERA: 4.16 (7th)
OBA: .334 (T-9th)
SLG: .376 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.42 (10th)
K/9: 7.68 (1st)
The Rangers from last year aren’t a terrible comparison to this group of Orioles, at least at this early juncture of the season. As expected, those offensive numbers are nice and shiny. I expect they’ll stay at or near the top in all of these particular offensive categories for a majority of the season.
Those pitching stats, however, strike me as a little odd. They’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA, yet aren’t allowing many runs. They’re allowing a lot of baserunners (OBA and WHIP are nothing to write home about), yet are appear to be minimizing the damage (low SLG-against) and relying on a lot of strikeouts.
At first glance, I think they’ve been a little lucky. Will they continue to lead the AL in strikeout rate? I don’t know. They were 5th in the league last year (6.74/ 9 IP), so it’s not like their baseline coming into this year was poor in that category. And looking at their pitching as a whole last year, it’s clear they’re ahead of some of last year’s numbers:
Runs Allowed: 830 (9th)
ERA: 4.70 (7th)
Interestingly, last year they had the same trend of allowing a lot baserunners (.348 OBA was tied for 12th), yet minimizing the damage to an extent: their .404 SLG-against was the best in the league.
By the way, what does that tell us about the popular notion of Camden Yards being a “slugger’s” ballpark?
In any case, in answer’s to Mike original question: no, I don’t think the Orioles will “fade,” as in eventually drift under .500 as the season goes on and fall out of a playoff race. The offensive strides they’ve made are evident (last year they ranked 6th in RS and 8th in SLG), and while I can see them falling off this pace a little bit, I don’t think they’re pitching is going to totally fall off the table either. They’re legitimately on track to fall within the 85-87 win range, which puts them smack dab in the Wild Card race in late August and early September.
Go read about the Yankees somewhere else.
I need a break from thinking about them, at least for one morning. And pretty soon, I might not have to think much about them at all, as far as looking ahead to the post-season is concerned.
It is cold and damp and drizzly, and it’s the middle of May. I’m working on Coffee #1, not sure what exactly to write about today. Not sure what’s worthy of attention.
I’ll start with an email I received from a friend this week. Mike wrote:
I guess I am wondering how much, if any, you believe in these Baltimore Orioles.
Pitching, Pitching Pitching is the name of the game, everyone is saying... and
they are also saying they will fade because of it... Do you believe that?
Mike, the way this season is going, I don’t know what to believe. It is definitely the most wide-open and unexpected beginning to a baseball season that I can ever remember. There are the Yankees, of course, who are shaping up to be one of the biggest flops in recent memory. Their season win total over/under was 101; they probably won’t get within 15 games of that now.
Then there are the White Sox who won again last night. They’re 22-7, have a commanding 4.5 game lead in the Central and are continuing the Odd Record of the Season by having a lead in every game they’ve played in so far.
I would think you’d have to throw the resurgent Diamondbacks in the mix as one of the season’s big surprises. Coming off a 51-111 season, they’re 18-12 only one back of the Dodgers.
But back to the Orioles. I’m somewhat amazed at how good they’ve been. 19-9 and a 2.5 game lead over Boston right now. I don’t expect that lead over the Sox to last too much longer, but I also don’t see a definitive reason why Baltimore won’t be able to hang with Minnesota/Chicago, Texas, Oakland, Toronto, etc. in the Wild Card race.
Last summer, I wrote about the Rangers, who at that time were in first place by a few games over the A’s. In late July, they were at the top of the league in some major offensive categories (Runs, OPS, HRs), and were average or worse in the pitching department (7th in ERA, 9th in OPS-against and 12th in K/9).
I made the point, believing in a little conventional wisdom, that the Rangers pitching had to get better if they were going to stay in the race. At the time I was writing on this topic, I was also mirroring my blog’s posts on the forums at MLB Center. One of the forum members, Sandy, responded to my critique of the Rangers’ chances with a list of teams that have made the post-season in recent years with mediocre-to-woeful pitching:
On the question of offensive-leaning playoff team. RS = Runs scored: RA = runs allowed.
'03 RedSox - 1st in RS - 8th in RA (lost AL Championship)
'01 Indians - 2nd in RS - 9th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'97 Indians - 3rd in RS - 9th in RA - (lost WS to Marlins)
'97 Mariners - 1st in RS - 11th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'98 Rangers - 2nd in RS - 12th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'99 Rangers - 2nd in RS - 11th in RA - (lost 1st round)
'96 Orioles - 3rd in RS - 8th in RA - (lost AL Championship)
'92 Blue Jays - 2nd in RS - 9th in RA (won WS over Braves)
'93 Phillies - 1st in RS - 6th in RA (lost WS to BlueJays)
'95 Rockies - 1st in RS - LAST in RA (lost in 1st round)
'97 Giants - 4th in RS - 9th in RA (lost in 1st round)
'01 Astros - 2nd in RS - 10th in RA (lost in 1st round)
'03 Braves - 1st in RS - 9th in RA (lost in 1st round)
2004 - Rangers (as of 7/24/2004)2nd in RS - 8th in RA
If you look at the above list, it's actually quite common to get INTO the playoffs with suspect pitching (ranked in the bottom half of the league). Of course, we also see that these teams tend to bow out quite quickly.
(Thanks again, Sandy.)
For the record, the Rangers finished 89-73 last year, 3 games out of first. They ended up 4th in RS (860) and 5th in RA (794). Although I don’t remember the exact details of the Rangers’ stretch run from last season, you can actually make the case that it wasn’t the pitching that deserted them in the latter stages of the season (I have to imagine that they pitched at least decent to warrant a jump from 8th to 5th in league rankings from late July on), but it was their hitting that bottomed out a bit.
In any case, you can be a mediocre pitching team and still be a winning team. Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem usually rings true, and there is not a bias that favors runs allowed over runs scored. If you can score a ton of runs, you can afford to allow some runs as well. It's the run differential that matters.
*As far as actually winning the World Series, that’s probably another matter. In the post-season, there is such an impetus on the top half of a team’s starting rotation, and there is of course a little luck involved. But that’s for another day.
Some of the Orioles’ current AL rankings:
Offense
Runs Scored: 154 (3rd)
Avg.: .293 (1st)
OBP: .348 (3rd)
SLG: .480 (1st)
Defense
Runs Allowed: 122 (4th)
ERA: 4.16 (7th)
OBA: .334 (T-9th)
SLG: .376 (3rd)
WHIP: 1.42 (10th)
K/9: 7.68 (1st)
The Rangers from last year aren’t a terrible comparison to this group of Orioles, at least at this early juncture of the season. As expected, those offensive numbers are nice and shiny. I expect they’ll stay at or near the top in all of these particular offensive categories for a majority of the season.
Those pitching stats, however, strike me as a little odd. They’re middle-of-the-pack in ERA, yet aren’t allowing many runs. They’re allowing a lot of baserunners (OBA and WHIP are nothing to write home about), yet are appear to be minimizing the damage (low SLG-against) and relying on a lot of strikeouts.
At first glance, I think they’ve been a little lucky. Will they continue to lead the AL in strikeout rate? I don’t know. They were 5th in the league last year (6.74/ 9 IP), so it’s not like their baseline coming into this year was poor in that category. And looking at their pitching as a whole last year, it’s clear they’re ahead of some of last year’s numbers:
Runs Allowed: 830 (9th)
ERA: 4.70 (7th)
Interestingly, last year they had the same trend of allowing a lot baserunners (.348 OBA was tied for 12th), yet minimizing the damage to an extent: their .404 SLG-against was the best in the league.
By the way, what does that tell us about the popular notion of Camden Yards being a “slugger’s” ballpark?
In any case, in answer’s to Mike original question: no, I don’t think the Orioles will “fade,” as in eventually drift under .500 as the season goes on and fall out of a playoff race. The offensive strides they’ve made are evident (last year they ranked 6th in RS and 8th in SLG), and while I can see them falling off this pace a little bit, I don’t think they’re pitching is going to totally fall off the table either. They’re legitimately on track to fall within the 85-87 win range, which puts them smack dab in the Wild Card race in late August and early September.
