Tuesday, July 27, 2004

Central Casting

Buster Olney has a compact preview on tonight's Twins-White Sox match-up on ESPN.com. After last night's 6-2 victory, the Twins have moved 1.5 games ahead of Chicago in the AL Central.

I watched a decent chunk of the game until the MLB TV feed started acting up. Although he didn't get blasted all over the park, I couldn't believe all the hits Mark Buehrle was giving up. Although not a rarity (he's given up 10+ hits five times this year), the 12 hits he surrended last night was the most he's given up in one game this year. And he currently leads AL pitchers in most hits allowed (166 in 148.2 IP).

This is how he fares among AL starters in a few opponents' averages:

Batting average: .285, 25th
On-Base Pct.: .320, 16th
Slugging Pct.: .430, 23rd

Shaky numbers for a guy considered one of the top 10 or so starters in the league. A look at some other rankings among AL starters:

Innings Pitched: 148.2, 1st
ERA: 3.93, 10th
WHIP: 1.30, 15th
Strikeouts: 107, 9th
GIDP: 19, T-2nd

Yeah, Buehrle gives up a ton of hits, but a lot of that can be traced to how many innings he throws. I can't say his defense necessarily hurts the fact that he's a ground ball pitcher; his infield defense ranks well in a traditional category like fielding pct., and also in sabermetric stats like Range Factor and Zone Rating.

He gives up a lot of home runs, but he doesn't hurt himself with walks, has a fair amount of strikeouts and induces a lot of double plays.

I don't have a great feel for Buehrle as a pitcher as I rarely watch him throw. But just looking at these numbers, and watching him last into the 7th inning last night, keeping his team in the game in the process, I'm wondering if he's one of those guys who brings more to the table than the stats suggest. Someone who will give up a home run, but nothing that amounts to a dagger. A guy who will get hit around a little bit, but has no problem pitching with guys on base and doesn't get rattled. And you gotta like a guy who pitches that many innings.

This series has another interesting pitching match-up lined up tonight. And as similar as Radke's and Buehrle's numbers are, my first glance tells me Freddy Garcia and Johan Santana are having very similar campaigns.

Santana: 8-6, 3.44 (1-1, 23 IP, 1.17 ERA last three starts)
Garcia: 8-8, 3.18 (3-0, 20.3 IP, 1.77 ERA last three starts)

Here are some other comparisons between the two:

IP
Garcia: 141.1
Santana: 138.2

OBP
Santana: .270
Garcia: .287

SLG
Santana: .365
Garcia: .361

BB
Santana: 38
Garcia: 40

K
Santana: 155
Garcia: 120

That's the definition of a close pitching match-up, and a good one to boot.

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