Thursday, April 21, 2005
Drought O' Runs
Before the season started, one of the popular pundits (Gammons?) suggested that having Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi as their corner outfielders was a positive, not a negative thing for the Atlanta Braves.
My reaction was kind of a simple one: Huh?
Stats change quickly in April, but these numbers aren’t what Atlanta needs at this point:
Mondesi: .250/.260/.458
Jordan: .220/.264/.320
I’m encouraged to bring this up because the Braves’ offense yet again struggled to score runs last night. They got shutout for the second time this season, this time at RFK in Washington.
I don’t mean to pin the Braves’ recent stretch of offensive woe totally on Mondesi/Jordan, especially when only about two of the regulars in the line-up are doing much of anything. Of special note is Andruw Jones’ current slump of 0-27, which includes looking at a called third strike with the tying run on base in the 9th last night. However, the Braves’ two new outfielders are easy targets.
In the last five games Atlanta has scored six runs, and in the process has negated any positive effects of the NL’s 3rd ranked pitching staff during this stretch. In the same five games, the Braves have allowed a very manageable 11 runs. Explains why they’re playing .500 baseball.
It’s so early in the season, I’m a little hesitant to start playing with season comparisons, but what the heck.
Last year the Braves scored over 800 runs, 803 to be exact (T-5th in the NL), which works out to 4.96 R/G. In the first couple weeks of this season, they’re scoring at a 3.4 R/G, and rank 15th in the NL in RS.
For what they’re worth at this early stage, some other comparisons:
2004/2005:
OBP: .343/.302
SLG: .434/.379
BA: .270/.242
The reason that I think it’s not a terrible idea to break down the stats of Atlanta in particular, is because as I look at this line-up I wonder to what extent this is going to change.
While it’s feasible to suggest that Jordan can provide the production that Atlanta got in LF last year, let’s not forgot that Charles Thomas (.288/.368/.445) played a respectable 70 games out there, and Jordan hasn’t played more than 66 G since 2002. Mondesi, on the other hand, coming off a truly lost campaign, won’t sniff the numbers that J.D. Drew put up in right for the Braves last year: .305/.436/.569, 31 HR, 93 RBI.
Chipper looks like he's primed to have a big year. Giles has only played nine games so far after missing the first week of the season, so he's just getting started. And Andruw Jones is going to eventually make these numbers a footnote to his 2005 season: .175/.246/.281. (Can we stop all coming out of spring training and saying "Andruw Jones is primed to become a superstar" or some such nonsense? Thank you.)
I’m not suggesting that Atlanta is going to continue scoring one or two runs a night, but they’re going to be hard-pressed to score anywhere near the 800+ runs they did last year.
Braves' Run Totals During Their Divisional Title Run
Before the season started, one of the popular pundits (Gammons?) suggested that having Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi as their corner outfielders was a positive, not a negative thing for the Atlanta Braves.
My reaction was kind of a simple one: Huh?
Stats change quickly in April, but these numbers aren’t what Atlanta needs at this point:
Mondesi: .250/.260/.458
Jordan: .220/.264/.320
I’m encouraged to bring this up because the Braves’ offense yet again struggled to score runs last night. They got shutout for the second time this season, this time at RFK in Washington.
I don’t mean to pin the Braves’ recent stretch of offensive woe totally on Mondesi/Jordan, especially when only about two of the regulars in the line-up are doing much of anything. Of special note is Andruw Jones’ current slump of 0-27, which includes looking at a called third strike with the tying run on base in the 9th last night. However, the Braves’ two new outfielders are easy targets.
In the last five games Atlanta has scored six runs, and in the process has negated any positive effects of the NL’s 3rd ranked pitching staff during this stretch. In the same five games, the Braves have allowed a very manageable 11 runs. Explains why they’re playing .500 baseball.
It’s so early in the season, I’m a little hesitant to start playing with season comparisons, but what the heck.
Last year the Braves scored over 800 runs, 803 to be exact (T-5th in the NL), which works out to 4.96 R/G. In the first couple weeks of this season, they’re scoring at a 3.4 R/G, and rank 15th in the NL in RS.
For what they’re worth at this early stage, some other comparisons:
2004/2005:
OBP: .343/.302
SLG: .434/.379
BA: .270/.242
The reason that I think it’s not a terrible idea to break down the stats of Atlanta in particular, is because as I look at this line-up I wonder to what extent this is going to change.
While it’s feasible to suggest that Jordan can provide the production that Atlanta got in LF last year, let’s not forgot that Charles Thomas (.288/.368/.445) played a respectable 70 games out there, and Jordan hasn’t played more than 66 G since 2002. Mondesi, on the other hand, coming off a truly lost campaign, won’t sniff the numbers that J.D. Drew put up in right for the Braves last year: .305/.436/.569, 31 HR, 93 RBI.
Chipper looks like he's primed to have a big year. Giles has only played nine games so far after missing the first week of the season, so he's just getting started. And Andruw Jones is going to eventually make these numbers a footnote to his 2005 season: .175/.246/.281. (Can we stop all coming out of spring training and saying "Andruw Jones is primed to become a superstar" or some such nonsense? Thank you.)
I’m not suggesting that Atlanta is going to continue scoring one or two runs a night, but they’re going to be hard-pressed to score anywhere near the 800+ runs they did last year.
Braves' Run Totals During Their Divisional Title Run
Year R/G R
2004 Atlanta Braves 4.96 803
2003 Atlanta Braves 5.60 907
2002 Atlanta Braves 4.40 708
2001 Atlanta Braves 4.50 729
2000 Atlanta Braves 5.00 810
1999 Atlanta Braves 5.19 840
1998 Atlanta Braves 5.10 826
1997 Atlanta Braves 4.88 791
1996 Atlanta Braves 4.77 773
1995 Atlanta Braves 4.48 645
1993 Atlanta Braves 4.73 767
1992 Atlanta Braves 4.21 682
1991 Atlanta Braves 4.62 749
(links and stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
