Friday, August 08, 2003
A Sure Thing?
Considering the rag-tag economy and bumpy financial markets over the last few years, it seems like a good time to ask investors the question: "What's the worst investment you ever made?" I imagine Pets.com is high up on someone's ill-fated list.
My game isn't stocks & bonds, however. In fact, when someone mentions the word "bonds," I simply ask if he's hit another. Despite my lack of business acumen, the topic of bad investing hits home. In fact, I have no doubt what the worst investment I ever made was.
I wasn't in the process of expanding my portfolio, or securing my family's financial future (well, actually growth potential was floating around in my head somewhere). I was actually building up what seemed at the time was my own private little fortune: my baseball card collection.
We all have stories about our card collections. Favorite cards, best trades, worst trades, etc. My favorite place to buy baseball cards when I was 12 was a little Mom & Pop called B & B's. It was so small that it was actually wasn't a store at all, but an off-shoot of the proprietor's living room. He had some very slick display cases, the photo album-type card books, boxes and boxes of Topps, Fleer and Donruss (The Baseball Card Trinity, if you will) and, if I'm not mistaken, a typical assortment of candy, gum and other vehicles of sugar.
But the thing that was best about the place was the prices. Everything was cheaper than at the assortment of other card shops in the area, not to mention the pharmacies and convenience stores that sold cards. By that age, you realize asking Mom and Dad to buy you a real good baseball card takes some strategy and technique. There has to be some reasoning, maybe even a little persuasion.
And I never had as good an "investment" on my hands as Jose Canseco's Donruss Rookie Card. Before that day at B&B's, that golden piece of colored cardboard had only been a pipe dream. It was the card I needed but couldn't have. The figures $66.65 glared out from all the price books, and made my hopes for that card as realistic as a lifetime of tickets to the World Series.
But at B&B's, things just weren't the same. The outside world, and all the baseball card books out there couldn't change the fact that he was selling the card for $33.00. Thirty-three dollars. As I peered through the glass case, and at the bulkly plastic case that the card rested in, I couldn't believe my eyes. I went back once more, and seeing that the card was still there began to muster up the courage to ask my mother for a little help.
The end of the story, the good part anyway, is that I ended up getting that card. Jose Canseco, '86 Donruss Rookie. Those words used to make me feel like my card collection had reached another level. It was too good to be true, I tell you.
Of course, the story doesn't end there because it was only 1988. At that point in the story, Jose Canseco was one of the best baseball players in the world. I didn't know much about projecting career numbers, or tracking prospective Hall of Famers at age 12, but I was sure he was going to be great. And I'm going to venture that a lot of people who knew a helluva lot more about baseball than me in 1988 thought he was going to have a great career too.
If I blind-folded you and put these numbers in front of you:
.266, .353, .515, 462 HR
I believe you would say, "Geez, that guy had a very good career." I mean 462 home runs is 462 home runs. But to have lived through Canseco's career means we have enduring images like a home run off his coconut, an injured arm in a mindless pitching stint, the cloud of steroids acting almost as his shadow, and a decade-long malaise that saw him bounce from organization to organization, with a steady erosion of his skills along the way. If Jose Canseco had been a "nice guy," who gave us the impression of busting his butt every day, there is a good chance he would be getting some support for the Hall of the Fame.
At the end of the 2000 season, Bill James had him pegged as the 36th best right fielder in baseball history. The two guys in front of him: Tommy Henrich and Willie Keeler. The two guys behind: Sam Thompson and Johnny Callison Of the 35 RFs that James puts ahead of him, only Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield have more home runs.
This column is not about Jose Canseco, however. It's about Albert Pujols. Why the Canseco blabber? Well, Pujols, among his other accomplishments now has 30 HR and 100 RBI in each of his first three seasons in the Bigs. Thirty-four and 108, as of this writing. The only other player to accomplish that feat? Jose, of course. And wouldn't you have said Ott or Williams or ... a lot of people not named Jose Canseco?
Canseco's first three years
1986: .240, 33, 117, .318, .457, 175 K
1987: .257, 31, 113, .310, .470, 157 K
1988: .307, 42, 124, .391, .569, 128 K
Pujols' first three years, with the remainder of this year projected
2001: .329, 37, 130, .403, .610, 93 K
2002: .314, 34, 127, .394, .561, 69 K
2003: .371, 44, 141, .438, .690, 60 K
I don't know what you say to Pujols' stats ... just off the freakin' charts. Granted Canseco was playing in an environment (Oakland Coliseum in the late 1980s) less favorable to hitters than Pujols is thriving in, but the statistical comparison isn't even close. If we thought Canseco was good in 1988, what are we to make of Pujols? It seems we're still trying to figure that one out.
In early June, ESPN.com ran a few stories just when the talk of Pujols' chances a Triple Crown were heating up. Neyer looked at the Win Shares for the first two years of his career, and projected his final number for this year. He came up with 96 for three years. (Keep in mind that according to Bill James, the author of the system, about 30 Win Shares equates into an MVP-caliber season.)
Here's the list of most Win Shares after first 3 seasons:
1) Joe Jackson 112
2) Dick Allen 109
3) Ted Williams 104
4) Albert Pujols 96* (projected as of early June)
5) Cal Ripken 95
6) Joe DiMaggio 94
7) George Stone 92 -- Read the article if you want to find out who George Stone was...
ESPN.com also ran an article using James' Similarity Scores, which judge players throughout history based on age, games, at-bats, and offensive statistics.
The most similar players to Pujols as of the completion of the seasons in which they were 23 years old:
1) Joe DiMaggio
2) Joe Medwick
3) Hank Aaron
4) Stan Musial
5) Jimmie Foxx
Right around the All-Star break my friend and I went through the rosters of every team and tried to divide players based on their chances to get in the Hall of Fame: Locks, Probably in now, Have work to do, Long shot, etc.
Obviously, no one can say with any seriousness that Albert Pujols is a "lock" for the Hall of Fame, meaning if his career ended today, he would get in. But by any other measurement, I believe that Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame someday. And to say that with such confidence about a player who is 23 and in the middle of his third season of in the majors (only 4th season of professional baseball!), speaks volumes of just how good he is.
Odd similarity of this story: Both Canseco and Pujols were managed by Tony LaRussa in the early parts of their careers.
Ultimately, it seems wholly inappropriate to judge Pujols against Canseco, despite the 30 HR-100 RBI coincidence, as there really isn't a comparison. In fact, considering the still-active 30-game hitting streak, and Joe D.'s appearance on the lists above, it seems there's a comparison for Pujols which is much more impressive.
---------------
It's nice to have a break on a summer night, and have the chance to write a little. Some quick hits before I sign off...
-- Pujols extended his hitting streak to 22 tonight against the Braves. No matter; Atlanta's up 7-2 and continue to amaze. 76-39 after tonight. They might be the greatest regular season team in the history of baseball (over a 13-year stretch), and, Billy Beane would argue, one of the best teams of all-time. What's really a "team" though? You can have the same "team" for three or five years. But for 10? Obviously the 2003 Atlanta Braves are similar in name only to their counterparts from the early '90s. I guess I'll just leave it at "run." It's one of the greatest runs of success by a franchise in the history of baseball. And it just keeps on going...
-- If the Red Sox don't catch the Yankees, this will be one of the days the Nation looks back to. Two-and-a-half back with the Yanks lined up for three against Seattle, while the Sox entertain the Orioles. Good chance to pick up ground, right? Wrong. Boston fell asleep at the wheel at Fenway today and got swept in a day-night doubleheader, and now stand 4 back. Certainly it's not the end of the world for Boston, but has to rank up there as their worst day of the season so far.
-- I know this suspicion isn't that sneaky, but I'm starting to believe my World Series pick isn't dead yet. At least to get them out of the regular season alive. But the Twins are just kind of floating in the thick of the AL Central race as all attention has been on the White Sox and Royals of late. Last night was a brutal loss for KC, maybe the dagger that we've been waiting for since June. And tonight they were lifeless against Tampa. As a result, for the first time since June (correct me if I'm wrong on that...), the Royals are not in first place.
AL Central after tonight's games
Chicago Sox 61-54
Kansas City 60-54
Minnesota 58-57
There is no question, the Sox are the most talented of the three. But I still think Minny is still the guttiest. They've had an odd season, and I gotta believe they have a 2 or 3-week stretch of baseball in them where they can play some consistent baseball.
Considering the rag-tag economy and bumpy financial markets over the last few years, it seems like a good time to ask investors the question: "What's the worst investment you ever made?" I imagine Pets.com is high up on someone's ill-fated list.
My game isn't stocks & bonds, however. In fact, when someone mentions the word "bonds," I simply ask if he's hit another. Despite my lack of business acumen, the topic of bad investing hits home. In fact, I have no doubt what the worst investment I ever made was.
I wasn't in the process of expanding my portfolio, or securing my family's financial future (well, actually growth potential was floating around in my head somewhere). I was actually building up what seemed at the time was my own private little fortune: my baseball card collection.
We all have stories about our card collections. Favorite cards, best trades, worst trades, etc. My favorite place to buy baseball cards when I was 12 was a little Mom & Pop called B & B's. It was so small that it was actually wasn't a store at all, but an off-shoot of the proprietor's living room. He had some very slick display cases, the photo album-type card books, boxes and boxes of Topps, Fleer and Donruss (The Baseball Card Trinity, if you will) and, if I'm not mistaken, a typical assortment of candy, gum and other vehicles of sugar.
But the thing that was best about the place was the prices. Everything was cheaper than at the assortment of other card shops in the area, not to mention the pharmacies and convenience stores that sold cards. By that age, you realize asking Mom and Dad to buy you a real good baseball card takes some strategy and technique. There has to be some reasoning, maybe even a little persuasion.
And I never had as good an "investment" on my hands as Jose Canseco's Donruss Rookie Card. Before that day at B&B's, that golden piece of colored cardboard had only been a pipe dream. It was the card I needed but couldn't have. The figures $66.65 glared out from all the price books, and made my hopes for that card as realistic as a lifetime of tickets to the World Series.
But at B&B's, things just weren't the same. The outside world, and all the baseball card books out there couldn't change the fact that he was selling the card for $33.00. Thirty-three dollars. As I peered through the glass case, and at the bulkly plastic case that the card rested in, I couldn't believe my eyes. I went back once more, and seeing that the card was still there began to muster up the courage to ask my mother for a little help.
The end of the story, the good part anyway, is that I ended up getting that card. Jose Canseco, '86 Donruss Rookie. Those words used to make me feel like my card collection had reached another level. It was too good to be true, I tell you.
Of course, the story doesn't end there because it was only 1988. At that point in the story, Jose Canseco was one of the best baseball players in the world. I didn't know much about projecting career numbers, or tracking prospective Hall of Famers at age 12, but I was sure he was going to be great. And I'm going to venture that a lot of people who knew a helluva lot more about baseball than me in 1988 thought he was going to have a great career too.
If I blind-folded you and put these numbers in front of you:
.266, .353, .515, 462 HR
I believe you would say, "Geez, that guy had a very good career." I mean 462 home runs is 462 home runs. But to have lived through Canseco's career means we have enduring images like a home run off his coconut, an injured arm in a mindless pitching stint, the cloud of steroids acting almost as his shadow, and a decade-long malaise that saw him bounce from organization to organization, with a steady erosion of his skills along the way. If Jose Canseco had been a "nice guy," who gave us the impression of busting his butt every day, there is a good chance he would be getting some support for the Hall of the Fame.
At the end of the 2000 season, Bill James had him pegged as the 36th best right fielder in baseball history. The two guys in front of him: Tommy Henrich and Willie Keeler. The two guys behind: Sam Thompson and Johnny Callison Of the 35 RFs that James puts ahead of him, only Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, Frank Robinson, Mel Ott, Reggie Jackson and Dave Winfield have more home runs.
This column is not about Jose Canseco, however. It's about Albert Pujols. Why the Canseco blabber? Well, Pujols, among his other accomplishments now has 30 HR and 100 RBI in each of his first three seasons in the Bigs. Thirty-four and 108, as of this writing. The only other player to accomplish that feat? Jose, of course. And wouldn't you have said Ott or Williams or ... a lot of people not named Jose Canseco?
Canseco's first three years
1986: .240, 33, 117, .318, .457, 175 K
1987: .257, 31, 113, .310, .470, 157 K
1988: .307, 42, 124, .391, .569, 128 K
Pujols' first three years, with the remainder of this year projected
2001: .329, 37, 130, .403, .610, 93 K
2002: .314, 34, 127, .394, .561, 69 K
2003: .371, 44, 141, .438, .690, 60 K
I don't know what you say to Pujols' stats ... just off the freakin' charts. Granted Canseco was playing in an environment (Oakland Coliseum in the late 1980s) less favorable to hitters than Pujols is thriving in, but the statistical comparison isn't even close. If we thought Canseco was good in 1988, what are we to make of Pujols? It seems we're still trying to figure that one out.
In early June, ESPN.com ran a few stories just when the talk of Pujols' chances a Triple Crown were heating up. Neyer looked at the Win Shares for the first two years of his career, and projected his final number for this year. He came up with 96 for three years. (Keep in mind that according to Bill James, the author of the system, about 30 Win Shares equates into an MVP-caliber season.)
Here's the list of most Win Shares after first 3 seasons:
1) Joe Jackson 112
2) Dick Allen 109
3) Ted Williams 104
4) Albert Pujols 96* (projected as of early June)
5) Cal Ripken 95
6) Joe DiMaggio 94
7) George Stone 92 -- Read the article if you want to find out who George Stone was...
ESPN.com also ran an article using James' Similarity Scores, which judge players throughout history based on age, games, at-bats, and offensive statistics.
The most similar players to Pujols as of the completion of the seasons in which they were 23 years old:
1) Joe DiMaggio
2) Joe Medwick
3) Hank Aaron
4) Stan Musial
5) Jimmie Foxx
Right around the All-Star break my friend and I went through the rosters of every team and tried to divide players based on their chances to get in the Hall of Fame: Locks, Probably in now, Have work to do, Long shot, etc.
Obviously, no one can say with any seriousness that Albert Pujols is a "lock" for the Hall of Fame, meaning if his career ended today, he would get in. But by any other measurement, I believe that Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame someday. And to say that with such confidence about a player who is 23 and in the middle of his third season of in the majors (only 4th season of professional baseball!), speaks volumes of just how good he is.
Odd similarity of this story: Both Canseco and Pujols were managed by Tony LaRussa in the early parts of their careers.
Ultimately, it seems wholly inappropriate to judge Pujols against Canseco, despite the 30 HR-100 RBI coincidence, as there really isn't a comparison. In fact, considering the still-active 30-game hitting streak, and Joe D.'s appearance on the lists above, it seems there's a comparison for Pujols which is much more impressive.
---------------
It's nice to have a break on a summer night, and have the chance to write a little. Some quick hits before I sign off...
-- Pujols extended his hitting streak to 22 tonight against the Braves. No matter; Atlanta's up 7-2 and continue to amaze. 76-39 after tonight. They might be the greatest regular season team in the history of baseball (over a 13-year stretch), and, Billy Beane would argue, one of the best teams of all-time. What's really a "team" though? You can have the same "team" for three or five years. But for 10? Obviously the 2003 Atlanta Braves are similar in name only to their counterparts from the early '90s. I guess I'll just leave it at "run." It's one of the greatest runs of success by a franchise in the history of baseball. And it just keeps on going...
-- If the Red Sox don't catch the Yankees, this will be one of the days the Nation looks back to. Two-and-a-half back with the Yanks lined up for three against Seattle, while the Sox entertain the Orioles. Good chance to pick up ground, right? Wrong. Boston fell asleep at the wheel at Fenway today and got swept in a day-night doubleheader, and now stand 4 back. Certainly it's not the end of the world for Boston, but has to rank up there as their worst day of the season so far.
-- I know this suspicion isn't that sneaky, but I'm starting to believe my World Series pick isn't dead yet. At least to get them out of the regular season alive. But the Twins are just kind of floating in the thick of the AL Central race as all attention has been on the White Sox and Royals of late. Last night was a brutal loss for KC, maybe the dagger that we've been waiting for since June. And tonight they were lifeless against Tampa. As a result, for the first time since June (correct me if I'm wrong on that...), the Royals are not in first place.
AL Central after tonight's games
Chicago Sox 61-54
Kansas City 60-54
Minnesota 58-57
There is no question, the Sox are the most talented of the three. But I still think Minny is still the guttiest. They've had an odd season, and I gotta believe they have a 2 or 3-week stretch of baseball in them where they can play some consistent baseball.
