Friday, May 18, 2007

Custer Lives to Tell About It
or
He’s Just Another Dead Guy With an Arrow in His Head


The Yankees are playing the role of General George Custer now. Mike Francesca can sugar-coat it as much as he wants to, but this season is teetering on the brink. Nine games behind the Red Sox in the loss column, and six games behind the Detroit Tigers for the Wild Card (not to mention a handful of other teams that have to need to be leap-frogged), it’s not too early to say this is indeed the Yankees’ last stand of 2007.

Survival means going at least 3-3, if not 4-2 for the psychological impact, in these next six games, and not falling any deeper in the Wild Card chase. When it comes to the American League’s Eastern Division, the arrow is already through their heart; the Yankees’ nine-year dominance of the East appears to be over.

The collapse of the Yankees and emergence of the Red Sox as the division’s figurehead has been swift, dramatic and total in its nature.

Starting pitching? Boston has been as dominant rotation in baseball to date, getting not only expected solidity from Schilling, Beckett and Matsuzaka, but out-of-character heroics from Tim Wakefield and Julian Tavarez of all people.

Offense? The Yankees’ high rankings in runs, on-base, etc., are starting to look like a bit of a mirage. There are no less than three regulars who are on-track to have the worst years of their career: Damon, Abreu and Cano (granted we’re dealing with a small sample size in this case). Giambi’s May is as punchless as punchless can be thanks to a bone spur, and first base looks like it will be an offensive black hole for the remainder of the season, a mid-season bit of Cashman chicanery notwithstanding.

In his Pinstriped Blog today, Steven Goldman gives examples of some scattered teams in the modern era who were in as desperate position as the Yankees and lived to tell about it. The ’69 Mets, ’77 Royals, ’79 Pirates, the ’02 A’s and last year’s Twins, to name a few. In every case they sported a record close to New York’s 18-21, and were a good distance away from the division leader. In all cases, they were able to ride above the bad start and win it.

But even he would stress that a Yankees’ comeback in the AL East is unlikely if not impossible.

“The Yankees don't have a good chance of winning the division, but they have a
chance, and given how poorly things have gone to date, that's something. It's
going to take two -- an extraordinary combination of winning by the Yankees and
some proportionate amount of losing by the Red Sox. Both are in the Yankees'
control to some degree. They can do what they can to improve their team now,
without hesitation (you know what those things are -- we don't have to say them
again, not now). They can also whip the Red Sox in the three-game home series
that begins Monday.”


The Yanks are helped by the Wild Card cushion to fall back on, but again, it doesn’t look like that’s going to be a cake walk either, with already six games to make up in the loss column.

There could be a great juxtaposition this year. Yankee fans adjusting to life without a ticket punched for the post-season in the first non-strike year since Nirvana was releasing In Utero. And non-Yankee fans, defined quite simply as Yankee Haters, reveling and toasting a baseball world in which the Bronx Bombers are also-rans.

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