Tuesday, October 06, 2009
One-Game Playoff in Minnesota
updated: 8:23 p.m.
I was about to write "Rick Porcello is writing a story that will go down in Tigers' lore." It was the bottom of the 6th and the rookie had just struck out American League batting champion Joe Mauer for the second out of the inning. I walked out of the room to reset the internet connection and came back just in time to see Jason Kubel launching a home run into the seats above the baggy in right. 3-2 Tigers.
One batter later (a walk to Cuddyer), and now he's been yanked by Jim Leyland. Zach Miner coming in from the pen.
Porcello was excellent today: 5.2, 4 hits, 2 runs (as of right now), 1 earned, 2 walks, and a career-high tying 8 K's.
An excellent start to post-season baseball.
Update 1: 7:01 p.m.
Bases loaded for the Twins now. Miner's given up a single and hit a batter, pinch-hitter Brendan Harris. Two outs.
Ron Darling as the analyst makes Chip Carey (edited, orig. I wrote "Skip") tolerable. Darling is excellent. Wish I could combine the radio broadcast PBP announcer (Dan Shulman) with the TV color guy . . . how could a team would that be?
Tolbert's up, and Miner's behind in the count 2-1 and looks very shaky.
Hit decently, but directly to dead center. Can o' corn for Granderson.
3-2 going to the 7th.
Gotta like the Twins' chances though, especially considering how maligned the Detroit pen has been this year.
Update 2: 7:07 p.m.
Baker still in the game. At 84 pitches to start the inning.
Inge/Laird/Santiago due up.
In case you're wondering here's the complete list of all the tie-breaker games in baseball history, courtesy of Baseball Reference.
Inge walks to lead-off the 7th and Gardy's going to the Pen to bring in Jon Rauch.
Baker really hung in there. He gave up the three-spot in the 3rd and didn't look long for this game. But he really cruised through the middle innings. A workmanlike performance.
Update 3: 7:18 p.m.
Laird pops up the sac bunt attempt. One out. Laird really pulled the bat back on the heater, and wound up in a bad bunt position.
After getting a fly out from Santiago, Gardenhire is changing pitchers again. This time going with Jose Mijares to face Granderson.
The Twins are the first team to play in a tiebreaker playoff in back-to-back years. In looking at that list it's interesting to note that there were no extra games to decide a playoff spot from 1981-1994. Obviously the implementation of the Wild Card round has increased the occurrence of these games: this is the sixth since 1995 and the third in three seasons.
Mijares not missing by much, but down 3-1 in the count.
The other sizable gap between games like this was 1963-1977, years that were book-ended by the Dodgers-Giants playoff series in '62 and the Bucky Dent game in '78.
Base hit for Granderson on a 3-2 count. A guy who is a tougher out in my mind than his numbers suggest. The Tigers have a bunch of those types of guys . . . Polanco . . . Guillen.
1st & 3rd, 2 outs.
Another pitcher for the Twins as the conveyor belt continues to roll: Matt Guerrier on the way in to pitch to Polanco.
Update 4: 7:21 p.m.
Huge spot in the game. Base hit here really opens up some breathing room for the Tigers.
Got out of it. Fastball in on the hands, ground ball to short.
Update 5: 7:33 p.m.
Miner still in. Punto leading off.
Nick Punto is not one of those guys that I envision as "better than his numbers." When I see .227, that pretty much sums it up.
Good at-bat here though. Seven pitches in, 2-2 count. Now 3-2.
Base hit, of course. Line drive to left.
For all the crap that the Metrodome has gotten over the years (and one of my new favorite writers playfully piled it on this morning), it sure looks like a fun building to be in for big games. My memories of '87 and '91 are still vivid; I just remember the place absolutely rocking back in those years. And it's jumping tonight as well.
Gardy decided not to bunt with Span. Darling was surprised, for what it's worth.
Struck him out on a sharp slider. No advance of the runner. Remember that at-bat if the Twins don't score in this inning.
Orlando Cabrera, with the reputation as a good situational player . . . just drilled one into the left field seats. 4-3 Twinkies.
Well maybe "drilled" is being generous. A low line-drive it just sneaked over the fence in left, beyond the outstretched glove of Raburn in left. Unbelievable.
Six outs away from a historic collapse by the Tigers.
Base hit Mauer.
The game is starting to reach it's "inevitable feeling" stage. As in it's hard to envision Minnesota not winning this game now. Posnanski is right: this building just doesn't want to die.
New pitcher for Detroit.
Update 6: 7:41 p.m.
Fu Te-Ni got Kubel and Brandon Lyon was brought in to get Michael Cuddyer, which he did on a comebacker to the mound.
Onto the 8th.
Update 7: 7:56 p.m.
Guerrier still in. Ordonez/Cabrera/Guillen.
And now the only sound in the building is the hootin' and hollerin' in the Tigers dugout. Home run Magglio Ordonez.
Four to four.
Three outs away from Nathan facing the bottom of the order . . . oh well. It's a new game.
Cabrera grounds out.
Darling: "They were tied after 162. Why wouldn't they be tied now?"
Juice in the Metrodome, on a scale of 1-10, went from about a 15 to a 2.5 on one swing. Flat, flat, flatsky.
Guillen walks with one out.
Good AB by Raburn, and the crowd is slowly starting to resuscitate itself. Full count.
A lot of throws over to first to check on the pinch-runner Ramirez.
Ball 4. 1st and 2nd now, 1 out.
Guerrier out. I think Nathan's coming in, as he was the only one I saw warming up before the commercial break. Makes you think they probably would've been better off just having Nathan start the 8th, but I know Gardenhire was trying to avoid having to use his closer at all costs in the 8th.
Update 8: 8:02 p.m.
It is Nathan.
Big out. Got Inge to pop up to 2nd on a high fastball, 2-0 count. Ball was high, probably was ball three.
Two outs.
Laird.
Shocker: Nathan's fastball looks great. Crisp, good movement.
Nice stop by Mauer on a slider in the dirt. 2-1 count.
Buried a fastball in on the fists to tie him up. 2-2
Gotta stick with the fastball here, no?
Slider, of course. A beauty on the outside corner that froze Laird looking.
Onto the bottom of the 8th.
Great game.
Update 9: 8:10 p.m.
I've now been live blogging for over an hour, which is probably some kind of record for this venerable, old blog. It just struck me that this site is the baseball blogosphere's equivalent of the Metrodome! Yes, it's a perfect fit. Under-utilized, ugly, not the best place to get your baseball information, but dadgumit (and yes, I just wrote "dadgumit"), this blog just refuses to die.
Lyon still in for Detroit. One out on a groundout.
Another ground ball, this time to third. Two outs.
That should be my new tagline: The Metrodome of Baseball Blogs. Perfect.
Matt Tolbert. A name I wasn't familiar with at all until the last couple of weeks.
Swing and a miss. End of inning.
Onto the 9th, game tied at four.
Update 10: 8:23 p.m.
So sick of the $5 footlong song.
9-1-2 for the Tigers here in the 9th.
Beautiful bunt by Santiago down the first base line for a base hit. And just as impressive of a slide into the first base bag to avoid the tag by Cuddyer. Spectacular play.
I think you have to bunt Granderson here . . . but maybe that's just me. He does have good numbers against Nathan, but with those three guys behind him I'd be very tempted to get that runner into scoring position.
First pitch: wasn't squaring, strike one.
Swing and a miss, strike two.
Worked out well. 1st and 3rd with nobody out after a jam-shot base hit to right field.
Polanco. Nathan's fastball doesn't look as good as it did in the 8th, and Darling just alluded to that. TBS gun showed it at 94-95. This inning it's been at 93.
1-2 after a good slider.
Cooked a fastball up to 95. Foul ball.
2-2.
Great slider on the inside corner to freeze him. 1 out. Miles to go before he sleeps, however.
Ordonez.
Amazing.
Line shot to short and Cabrera threw back to 1st to double off Granderson who went way too far off the bag.
A double play sends the game to the bottom of the 9th tied at four.
A classic considering the circumstances. Other duties call at this point, but I'll try and check back in for a wrap-up later tonight.
Good stuff.
updated: 8:23 p.m.
I was about to write "Rick Porcello is writing a story that will go down in Tigers' lore." It was the bottom of the 6th and the rookie had just struck out American League batting champion Joe Mauer for the second out of the inning. I walked out of the room to reset the internet connection and came back just in time to see Jason Kubel launching a home run into the seats above the baggy in right. 3-2 Tigers.
One batter later (a walk to Cuddyer), and now he's been yanked by Jim Leyland. Zach Miner coming in from the pen.
Porcello was excellent today: 5.2, 4 hits, 2 runs (as of right now), 1 earned, 2 walks, and a career-high tying 8 K's.
An excellent start to post-season baseball.
Update 1: 7:01 p.m.
Bases loaded for the Twins now. Miner's given up a single and hit a batter, pinch-hitter Brendan Harris. Two outs.
Ron Darling as the analyst makes Chip Carey (edited, orig. I wrote "Skip") tolerable. Darling is excellent. Wish I could combine the radio broadcast PBP announcer (Dan Shulman) with the TV color guy . . . how could a team would that be?
Tolbert's up, and Miner's behind in the count 2-1 and looks very shaky.
Hit decently, but directly to dead center. Can o' corn for Granderson.
3-2 going to the 7th.
Gotta like the Twins' chances though, especially considering how maligned the Detroit pen has been this year.
Update 2: 7:07 p.m.
Baker still in the game. At 84 pitches to start the inning.
Inge/Laird/Santiago due up.
In case you're wondering here's the complete list of all the tie-breaker games in baseball history, courtesy of Baseball Reference.
Inge walks to lead-off the 7th and Gardy's going to the Pen to bring in Jon Rauch.
Baker really hung in there. He gave up the three-spot in the 3rd and didn't look long for this game. But he really cruised through the middle innings. A workmanlike performance.
Update 3: 7:18 p.m.
Laird pops up the sac bunt attempt. One out. Laird really pulled the bat back on the heater, and wound up in a bad bunt position.
After getting a fly out from Santiago, Gardenhire is changing pitchers again. This time going with Jose Mijares to face Granderson.
The Twins are the first team to play in a tiebreaker playoff in back-to-back years. In looking at that list it's interesting to note that there were no extra games to decide a playoff spot from 1981-1994. Obviously the implementation of the Wild Card round has increased the occurrence of these games: this is the sixth since 1995 and the third in three seasons.
Mijares not missing by much, but down 3-1 in the count.
The other sizable gap between games like this was 1963-1977, years that were book-ended by the Dodgers-Giants playoff series in '62 and the Bucky Dent game in '78.
Base hit for Granderson on a 3-2 count. A guy who is a tougher out in my mind than his numbers suggest. The Tigers have a bunch of those types of guys . . . Polanco . . . Guillen.
1st & 3rd, 2 outs.
Another pitcher for the Twins as the conveyor belt continues to roll: Matt Guerrier on the way in to pitch to Polanco.
Update 4: 7:21 p.m.
Huge spot in the game. Base hit here really opens up some breathing room for the Tigers.
Got out of it. Fastball in on the hands, ground ball to short.
Update 5: 7:33 p.m.
Miner still in. Punto leading off.
Nick Punto is not one of those guys that I envision as "better than his numbers." When I see .227, that pretty much sums it up.
Good at-bat here though. Seven pitches in, 2-2 count. Now 3-2.
Base hit, of course. Line drive to left.
For all the crap that the Metrodome has gotten over the years (and one of my new favorite writers playfully piled it on this morning), it sure looks like a fun building to be in for big games. My memories of '87 and '91 are still vivid; I just remember the place absolutely rocking back in those years. And it's jumping tonight as well.
Gardy decided not to bunt with Span. Darling was surprised, for what it's worth.
Struck him out on a sharp slider. No advance of the runner. Remember that at-bat if the Twins don't score in this inning.
Orlando Cabrera, with the reputation as a good situational player . . . just drilled one into the left field seats. 4-3 Twinkies.
Well maybe "drilled" is being generous. A low line-drive it just sneaked over the fence in left, beyond the outstretched glove of Raburn in left. Unbelievable.
Six outs away from a historic collapse by the Tigers.
Base hit Mauer.
The game is starting to reach it's "inevitable feeling" stage. As in it's hard to envision Minnesota not winning this game now. Posnanski is right: this building just doesn't want to die.
New pitcher for Detroit.
Update 6: 7:41 p.m.
Fu Te-Ni got Kubel and Brandon Lyon was brought in to get Michael Cuddyer, which he did on a comebacker to the mound.
Onto the 8th.
Update 7: 7:56 p.m.
Guerrier still in. Ordonez/Cabrera/Guillen.
And now the only sound in the building is the hootin' and hollerin' in the Tigers dugout. Home run Magglio Ordonez.
Four to four.
Three outs away from Nathan facing the bottom of the order . . . oh well. It's a new game.
Cabrera grounds out.
Darling: "They were tied after 162. Why wouldn't they be tied now?"
Juice in the Metrodome, on a scale of 1-10, went from about a 15 to a 2.5 on one swing. Flat, flat, flatsky.
Guillen walks with one out.
Good AB by Raburn, and the crowd is slowly starting to resuscitate itself. Full count.
A lot of throws over to first to check on the pinch-runner Ramirez.
Ball 4. 1st and 2nd now, 1 out.
Guerrier out. I think Nathan's coming in, as he was the only one I saw warming up before the commercial break. Makes you think they probably would've been better off just having Nathan start the 8th, but I know Gardenhire was trying to avoid having to use his closer at all costs in the 8th.
Update 8: 8:02 p.m.
It is Nathan.
Big out. Got Inge to pop up to 2nd on a high fastball, 2-0 count. Ball was high, probably was ball three.
Two outs.
Laird.
Shocker: Nathan's fastball looks great. Crisp, good movement.
Nice stop by Mauer on a slider in the dirt. 2-1 count.
Buried a fastball in on the fists to tie him up. 2-2
Gotta stick with the fastball here, no?
Slider, of course. A beauty on the outside corner that froze Laird looking.
Onto the bottom of the 8th.
Great game.
Update 9: 8:10 p.m.
I've now been live blogging for over an hour, which is probably some kind of record for this venerable, old blog. It just struck me that this site is the baseball blogosphere's equivalent of the Metrodome! Yes, it's a perfect fit. Under-utilized, ugly, not the best place to get your baseball information, but dadgumit (and yes, I just wrote "dadgumit"), this blog just refuses to die.
Lyon still in for Detroit. One out on a groundout.
Another ground ball, this time to third. Two outs.
That should be my new tagline: The Metrodome of Baseball Blogs. Perfect.
Matt Tolbert. A name I wasn't familiar with at all until the last couple of weeks.
Swing and a miss. End of inning.
Onto the 9th, game tied at four.
Update 10: 8:23 p.m.
So sick of the $5 footlong song.
9-1-2 for the Tigers here in the 9th.
Beautiful bunt by Santiago down the first base line for a base hit. And just as impressive of a slide into the first base bag to avoid the tag by Cuddyer. Spectacular play.
I think you have to bunt Granderson here . . . but maybe that's just me. He does have good numbers against Nathan, but with those three guys behind him I'd be very tempted to get that runner into scoring position.
First pitch: wasn't squaring, strike one.
Swing and a miss, strike two.
Worked out well. 1st and 3rd with nobody out after a jam-shot base hit to right field.
Polanco. Nathan's fastball doesn't look as good as it did in the 8th, and Darling just alluded to that. TBS gun showed it at 94-95. This inning it's been at 93.
1-2 after a good slider.
Cooked a fastball up to 95. Foul ball.
2-2.
Great slider on the inside corner to freeze him. 1 out. Miles to go before he sleeps, however.
Ordonez.
Amazing.
Line shot to short and Cabrera threw back to 1st to double off Granderson who went way too far off the bag.
A double play sends the game to the bottom of the 9th tied at four.
A classic considering the circumstances. Other duties call at this point, but I'll try and check back in for a wrap-up later tonight.
Good stuff.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Breaking Up the Day-to-Day Routine
The Shaken Not Stirred Edition
The post-season begins three weeks from today, Wednesday, October 7. This September has been one of the worst in recent baseball history, with barely a race to be found. The Yankees dashed out to the best record in baseball by mid- to late-August, and have been able to maintain a healthy lead both for the division and homefield throughout the playoffs. It's been a snooze-fest, as it's mostly been a month of housekeeping: keeping players healthy; giving regulars consistent time off; and at the same time maintaining some semblance of a competitive edge. This has been the case for New York and St. Louis, and to a lesser extent Anaheim, Philadelphia and Los Angeles.
The Yankees in particular have done an admirable job, going 10-5 through the first half of this month, beating up mostly on the bottom-feeders of their own division, including the comatose Rays who simply ran out of steam after a great year-and-a-half run
Which brings me to yesterday's fracas in the Bronx, which got a lot of attention both on national radio this morning, and on WFAN this afternoon. My initial impression was that last night's on-field brawl reeked of being borne out of boredom, more than any real brooding rivalry with the Jays or a vendetta against a junkball-throwing lefty. Toronto has probably been ready for this season to end for two months now, are sick of looking at the Yankees, and the Yankees (really Jorge Posada) had no problem obliging as I'm sure the day-to-day routine has grown monotonous; they've been waiting for the post-season to start for weeks now. Throwing a little spark into an otherwise meaningless night is not the worst thing in the world for a team that's been playing warm-up games for the better part of a month now.
I heard reels and reels of admonishment directed at Posada for "being dumb" and for putting the season at risk; his own manager in fact stated his disapproval of the turn of events. And all that is fine & well, but as far as I know no one did get hurt, and I don't think there is going to be any long-term damage from the fight. I'm not saying I condone Posada's actions; he clearly lost his head and perspective of the situation. But sometimes it's not the worse thing to have teams riled up and woken up and shaken up a bit, especially in the midst of tedium. Even if it's not for a particularly smart reason.
This installment of the Yankees has handled October Mode better than any other outfit since the 1998 juggernaut that never let the peddle off the metal and rolled to 114 wins in the regular season. Like that Yankees team, this once really hasn't let down on the throttle, despite subtle signs of fatigue and some lethargy in the past five games (2-3). How this will translate into October is anyone's guess, although some will at least try and make an educated one.
Last week in the esteemed Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman ranked the fortunes of all the probable post-season combatants by what the Baseball Prospectus guys have dubbed the "Secret Sauce." Although predicting post-season series outcomes can be bit of a fool's game, there are three key areas that correlate to post-season wins better than others. They are:
1. A power pitching staff, as measured by strikeout rate.
2. A good closer.
3. A good defense.
Nate Silver first wrote about this in 2006 at Baseball Prospectus, before he moved on to bigger things like predicting presidential elections:
Back to Goldman's round-up, here is how the likely post-season entrants rank in this three-ring measurement in MLB:
20 - Philadelphia Phillies
11 - Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim
10 - St. Louis Cardinals
06 - Colorado Rockies
05 - Detroit Tigers
04 - Boston Red Sox
02 - Los Angeles Dodgers
01 - New York Yankees
Some random thoughts on this list:
1. There is nothing easy about the Yankees 1st round ALDS match-up with the Tigers, which is something I've been alluding to on & off throughout the summer. And that's because of Detroit's starters (namely their ace) and their wily, old manager. Would anyone be surprised if Justin Verlander outduels C.C. Sabathia in a 3-2 ballgame in Game 1? Of course not. And that would lead to a season-on-the-line Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for 2009's best team, which deserves more attention. I'll try and do that tomorrow.
2. So much of the post-season's final outcome lies in the hands of match-ups. While the Phillies don't rank well in the numbers that correlate the best with post-season success, would anyone rank them as the team least likely to win it all? No way, man. I'd put them ahead of the Angels (who are going to have get through Boston & most likely NY); the Tigers (ditto); the Rockies; and at the very least on equal footing with the two other N.L. teams.
3. I still think the two best teams in baseball are Boston & New York, and they're well represented in the Top 3. And the Dodgers, despite their mid-summer malaise have been the best team in the N.L. virtually from wire-to-wire. The Phils, Cards & Dodgers are all bunched up as far as number of wins, but the Dodgers +154 run differential is tops in the bigs, ahead of New York (+148) and Boston (+126).
4. It would be ironic if this is the year the Angels finally get the better of the Red Sox in a big spot. Their 790 runs scored is second best in the sport, but they've allowed 688, which is good for only 8th in the American League. The pendulum swinging away from pitching & defense and more to offensive has made for smooth sailing in the regular season, but as the sauce suggests doesn't bode well for October.
As a sidenote, yes I'm well aware that the Sox have knocked 2.5 games off the Yankees lead in the blink of an eye. The 8-game loss-column lead six days ago has drifted down to 5, as Boston has made us all feel a little foolish for giving a moment's thought that Texas could challenge them for the Wild Card. I'll address this if & when that number hits 3, and only if that happens before next weekend's series in New York.
The Shaken Not Stirred Edition
The post-season begins three weeks from today, Wednesday, October 7. This September has been one of the worst in recent baseball history, with barely a race to be found. The Yankees dashed out to the best record in baseball by mid- to late-August, and have been able to maintain a healthy lead both for the division and homefield throughout the playoffs. It's been a snooze-fest, as it's mostly been a month of housekeeping: keeping players healthy; giving regulars consistent time off; and at the same time maintaining some semblance of a competitive edge. This has been the case for New York and St. Louis, and to a lesser extent Anaheim, Philadelphia and Los Angeles.
The Yankees in particular have done an admirable job, going 10-5 through the first half of this month, beating up mostly on the bottom-feeders of their own division, including the comatose Rays who simply ran out of steam after a great year-and-a-half run
Which brings me to yesterday's fracas in the Bronx, which got a lot of attention both on national radio this morning, and on WFAN this afternoon. My initial impression was that last night's on-field brawl reeked of being borne out of boredom, more than any real brooding rivalry with the Jays or a vendetta against a junkball-throwing lefty. Toronto has probably been ready for this season to end for two months now, are sick of looking at the Yankees, and the Yankees (really Jorge Posada) had no problem obliging as I'm sure the day-to-day routine has grown monotonous; they've been waiting for the post-season to start for weeks now. Throwing a little spark into an otherwise meaningless night is not the worst thing in the world for a team that's been playing warm-up games for the better part of a month now.
I heard reels and reels of admonishment directed at Posada for "being dumb" and for putting the season at risk; his own manager in fact stated his disapproval of the turn of events. And all that is fine & well, but as far as I know no one did get hurt, and I don't think there is going to be any long-term damage from the fight. I'm not saying I condone Posada's actions; he clearly lost his head and perspective of the situation. But sometimes it's not the worse thing to have teams riled up and woken up and shaken up a bit, especially in the midst of tedium. Even if it's not for a particularly smart reason.
This installment of the Yankees has handled October Mode better than any other outfit since the 1998 juggernaut that never let the peddle off the metal and rolled to 114 wins in the regular season. Like that Yankees team, this once really hasn't let down on the throttle, despite subtle signs of fatigue and some lethargy in the past five games (2-3). How this will translate into October is anyone's guess, although some will at least try and make an educated one.
Last week in the esteemed Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman ranked the fortunes of all the probable post-season combatants by what the Baseball Prospectus guys have dubbed the "Secret Sauce." Although predicting post-season series outcomes can be bit of a fool's game, there are three key areas that correlate to post-season wins better than others. They are:
1. A power pitching staff, as measured by strikeout rate.
2. A good closer.
3. A good defense.
Nate Silver first wrote about this in 2006 at Baseball Prospectus, before he moved on to bigger things like predicting presidential elections:
Of the dozens of team characteristics that we tested for statistical significance, in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series, these were the only three that mattered. Ending the year hot doesn’t make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense.
More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then.
So the huge emphasis that the general populace (measured by stations like this one and shows like this one and when I'm talking with my buddies over a couple of cold ones) puts on pitching in the post-season is sound. What our experience and eyes and ears tell us is backed up the stats in this case.
More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then.
So the huge emphasis that the general populace (measured by stations like this one and shows like this one and when I'm talking with my buddies over a couple of cold ones) puts on pitching in the post-season is sound. What our experience and eyes and ears tell us is backed up the stats in this case.
Back to Goldman's round-up, here is how the likely post-season entrants rank in this three-ring measurement in MLB:
20 - Philadelphia Phillies
11 - Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim
10 - St. Louis Cardinals
06 - Colorado Rockies
05 - Detroit Tigers
04 - Boston Red Sox
02 - Los Angeles Dodgers
01 - New York Yankees
Some random thoughts on this list:
1. There is nothing easy about the Yankees 1st round ALDS match-up with the Tigers, which is something I've been alluding to on & off throughout the summer. And that's because of Detroit's starters (namely their ace) and their wily, old manager. Would anyone be surprised if Justin Verlander outduels C.C. Sabathia in a 3-2 ballgame in Game 1? Of course not. And that would lead to a season-on-the-line Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for 2009's best team, which deserves more attention. I'll try and do that tomorrow.
2. So much of the post-season's final outcome lies in the hands of match-ups. While the Phillies don't rank well in the numbers that correlate the best with post-season success, would anyone rank them as the team least likely to win it all? No way, man. I'd put them ahead of the Angels (who are going to have get through Boston & most likely NY); the Tigers (ditto); the Rockies; and at the very least on equal footing with the two other N.L. teams.
3. I still think the two best teams in baseball are Boston & New York, and they're well represented in the Top 3. And the Dodgers, despite their mid-summer malaise have been the best team in the N.L. virtually from wire-to-wire. The Phils, Cards & Dodgers are all bunched up as far as number of wins, but the Dodgers +154 run differential is tops in the bigs, ahead of New York (+148) and Boston (+126).
4. It would be ironic if this is the year the Angels finally get the better of the Red Sox in a big spot. Their 790 runs scored is second best in the sport, but they've allowed 688, which is good for only 8th in the American League. The pendulum swinging away from pitching & defense and more to offensive has made for smooth sailing in the regular season, but as the sauce suggests doesn't bode well for October.
As a sidenote, yes I'm well aware that the Sox have knocked 2.5 games off the Yankees lead in the blink of an eye. The 8-game loss-column lead six days ago has drifted down to 5, as Boston has made us all feel a little foolish for giving a moment's thought that Texas could challenge them for the Wild Card. I'll address this if & when that number hits 3, and only if that happens before next weekend's series in New York.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
Sunday Morning Coffee
(The Mid-Field Collision Edition)
Things remain status quo in the Wild Card races after yesterday's action. The Red Sox and Rangers both lost on the road; the Giants and Rockies both won behind excellent starting pitching performances. Matt Cain shutdown the Brewers for his 13th win of the season. Jose Contreras had enough gumption & guile to quiet the snakes' bats, in his first National League start.
We go again today: Boston up two on Texas, Colorado up one game on San Fran.
Yesterday goes on the calendar as one of the best dozen or so sports days of the year. Has to. The formula is pretty simple. You take a dose of crisp, late-summer weather as a backdrop and a holiday weekend to boot. And in that context you have the first full day of football (as in noon to midnight) since last winter, and meaningful baseball games. As I tend to, add some music to the proceedings and you have one of those decompression days that the routine of daily life and the work week make essential.
The kickoff of the college football season must've sharpened my sports antennae, because I found myself wrapped into the baseball more than I've been all week. Picked up the Sox game when they were already down 3-0 and getting perfectly blanked by Floyd. (The 2009 White Sox are going to be forgotten by history, but two perfect games in one season would've made them referenced forever.) Watched a good chunk of the Rockies-Arizona game while also keep my eyes on a very entertaining Virginia Tech-Alabama prime time game on ABC.
And so much for Nevada hanging with Notre Dame . . . read a lot of analysis that at least liked the dog to cover. It didn't even look like they belonged on the same field, as the Irish had their first shutout in seven years, and their QB kept his detractors at bay for at least one week with a flawless performance against an over-matched defense.
It sets up an interesting installment in the match-up of old war horses next week in Ann Arbor. Both teams coming off cakewalks against inferior competition; both coaches on extremely warm seats; the fates of both programs in somewhat of a purgatory right now, as both have been passed by more modern offenses and more talented rosters in recent years (USC, Florida, Ohio State, etc.). At one point I was much more into college football than I am today. As I got older and time constraints became tighter, there was no way I could justify doing do two full days of football viewing in the fall. And without a true connection to an alma mater or growing up weened on the gameday culture like kids in Alabama and Oklahoma, college football was the sport to go. I'm still tuned in enough to know the basics: head coaches; best teams; title favorites, etc. But if you're looking me to name the skill position players, let alone the offensive linemen, on USC or Florida, forget about it. I could name maybe half-a-dozen starting quarterbacks.
From the late 80's and through the 90's, my favorite college football game of the year was Michigan-Notre Dame, and some of those echoes still remain. It will be a centerpiece of next weekend.
---
The local daily runs a section every Sunday called "5 Things We Learned About the Red Sox (or Yankees) Last Week." #2 this week is: Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Papelbon could make for a six-inning game against the Red Sox down the road.
And I'm reminded about how transient success on the baseball diamond can be when it comes to October. The Yankees' meteoric rise to top of the baseball pyramid could be just wisps of a vapor trail if they lose that first game against Detroit. Boston's walking-wounded journey to the post-season, so grueling and ugly in nature right now, could be a forgotten trip of the past if Beckett & Lester are clicking and their bullpen is missing bats in the late innings.
The only thing that can stamp this season for the Yankees as a success and something memorable is a championship. Is it harsh to pull the historical rug out on a unit that will win 100+ games and have some of the most gaudy power numbers of all time? Not in the context of a cap-less league and a $208 million payroll. As a Yankee fan, that's what comes with the package when you sign on the dotted line. True enjoyment of success is always held at bay. It's always an extended October away.
---
Billy Wagner has been almost perfect in his three appearances with the Red Sox so far. Here's his situational usage so far:
083009: Pitched with the lead in top of the 8th in a 7-0 game at Fenway Park against Toronto. 1/1/0/0/0/3
090109: Pitched with the lead (6-2) in the bottom of 7th in an 8-4 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/0/2
090903: Pitched with the lead (6-3) in the bottom of the 7th in a 6-3 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/1/2
His total line: 3/1/0/0/1/7
Right now Boston's having a tough time just getting the ball to bullpen with the game in good shape. But once it's there, it's in good hands. Even Bard, who has struggled over the last month, still has some great peripheral numbers. Since the two-homer game in New York on August 9, Bard has thrown nine innings. His line in that time, almost a full month of work: 9/8/5/5/4/14. That's a crummy ERA, but the walk total isn't terrible and the strikeout number is excellent. He's only given up one home run in that time as well.
This is still a bullpen that misses bats as well as any in baseball. In the grind of post-season games, that is typically a weapon that is very difficult to counter.
---
Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.
(The Mid-Field Collision Edition)
Things remain status quo in the Wild Card races after yesterday's action. The Red Sox and Rangers both lost on the road; the Giants and Rockies both won behind excellent starting pitching performances. Matt Cain shutdown the Brewers for his 13th win of the season. Jose Contreras had enough gumption & guile to quiet the snakes' bats, in his first National League start.
We go again today: Boston up two on Texas, Colorado up one game on San Fran.
Yesterday goes on the calendar as one of the best dozen or so sports days of the year. Has to. The formula is pretty simple. You take a dose of crisp, late-summer weather as a backdrop and a holiday weekend to boot. And in that context you have the first full day of football (as in noon to midnight) since last winter, and meaningful baseball games. As I tend to, add some music to the proceedings and you have one of those decompression days that the routine of daily life and the work week make essential.
The kickoff of the college football season must've sharpened my sports antennae, because I found myself wrapped into the baseball more than I've been all week. Picked up the Sox game when they were already down 3-0 and getting perfectly blanked by Floyd. (The 2009 White Sox are going to be forgotten by history, but two perfect games in one season would've made them referenced forever.) Watched a good chunk of the Rockies-Arizona game while also keep my eyes on a very entertaining Virginia Tech-Alabama prime time game on ABC.
And so much for Nevada hanging with Notre Dame . . . read a lot of analysis that at least liked the dog to cover. It didn't even look like they belonged on the same field, as the Irish had their first shutout in seven years, and their QB kept his detractors at bay for at least one week with a flawless performance against an over-matched defense.
It sets up an interesting installment in the match-up of old war horses next week in Ann Arbor. Both teams coming off cakewalks against inferior competition; both coaches on extremely warm seats; the fates of both programs in somewhat of a purgatory right now, as both have been passed by more modern offenses and more talented rosters in recent years (USC, Florida, Ohio State, etc.). At one point I was much more into college football than I am today. As I got older and time constraints became tighter, there was no way I could justify doing do two full days of football viewing in the fall. And without a true connection to an alma mater or growing up weened on the gameday culture like kids in Alabama and Oklahoma, college football was the sport to go. I'm still tuned in enough to know the basics: head coaches; best teams; title favorites, etc. But if you're looking me to name the skill position players, let alone the offensive linemen, on USC or Florida, forget about it. I could name maybe half-a-dozen starting quarterbacks.
From the late 80's and through the 90's, my favorite college football game of the year was Michigan-Notre Dame, and some of those echoes still remain. It will be a centerpiece of next weekend.
---
The local daily runs a section every Sunday called "5 Things We Learned About the Red Sox (or Yankees) Last Week." #2 this week is: Billy Wagner, Daniel Bard and Papelbon could make for a six-inning game against the Red Sox down the road.
And I'm reminded about how transient success on the baseball diamond can be when it comes to October. The Yankees' meteoric rise to top of the baseball pyramid could be just wisps of a vapor trail if they lose that first game against Detroit. Boston's walking-wounded journey to the post-season, so grueling and ugly in nature right now, could be a forgotten trip of the past if Beckett & Lester are clicking and their bullpen is missing bats in the late innings.
The only thing that can stamp this season for the Yankees as a success and something memorable is a championship. Is it harsh to pull the historical rug out on a unit that will win 100+ games and have some of the most gaudy power numbers of all time? Not in the context of a cap-less league and a $208 million payroll. As a Yankee fan, that's what comes with the package when you sign on the dotted line. True enjoyment of success is always held at bay. It's always an extended October away.
---
Billy Wagner has been almost perfect in his three appearances with the Red Sox so far. Here's his situational usage so far:
083009: Pitched with the lead in top of the 8th in a 7-0 game at Fenway Park against Toronto. 1/1/0/0/0/3
090109: Pitched with the lead (6-2) in the bottom of 7th in an 8-4 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/0/2
090903: Pitched with the lead (6-3) in the bottom of the 7th in a 6-3 game at Tampa. 1/0/0/0/1/2
His total line: 3/1/0/0/1/7
Right now Boston's having a tough time just getting the ball to bullpen with the game in good shape. But once it's there, it's in good hands. Even Bard, who has struggled over the last month, still has some great peripheral numbers. Since the two-homer game in New York on August 9, Bard has thrown nine innings. His line in that time, almost a full month of work: 9/8/5/5/4/14. That's a crummy ERA, but the walk total isn't terrible and the strikeout number is excellent. He's only given up one home run in that time as well.
This is still a bullpen that misses bats as well as any in baseball. In the grind of post-season games, that is typically a weapon that is very difficult to counter.
---
Enjoy the rest of the holiday weekend.
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Saturday Morning Snapshot
History's Horizons
I've watched very little baseball this week. The Yankees have been on autopilot for two weeks now, maintaining October Mode better than they have at any time in the last decade. Overall, it's shaping up to be a ho-hum September.
The races in baseball's two eastern divisions are over. The N.L. Central is cooked with the Cards now up 11.5 on the Cubs, and the A.L. Central is on the verge of being locked up with Detroit now six up after last night.
The Dodgers are maintaining a comfortable cushion, while the Angels are doing enough to keep breathing space between themselves and the plucky Rangers.
All that remains are the two Wild Card races to whet our appetite before the October tournament begins. It looks like the Giants & Rockies are going to have great race to the last week of the season. Unfortunately, the teams have only one series left with each other: September 14-16, at San Francisco.
My words from Thursday, July 30:
Minor miracle or not, the Rangers are now two behind the Red Sox for the American League's last post-season ticket. No other team is even in the mix.
On the morning of August 1, Boston had a 2.5 game advantage on Texas. Since that day the Sox have gone 17-14, while the Rangers have gone 18-14. In a difficult stretch that I figured would knock them out for good, Texas has stood toe-to-toe with the beast from the east.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Over the last 30 days, as their records were suggest, Texas & Boston have played almost dead-even baseball, offensively. Boston's scored 158 runs. Texas: 148. Boston's hitting at a .270/.351/.483 clip. Texas: .283/.345/.468.
Boston has hit seven more homers in that time span, 13 more doubles.
Where the two teams' paths have diverged is on the mound. In the last 30 days, Texas has allowed 117 runs, 2nd fewest in the A.L. to the Yankees' 116. Boston has allowed 150 in that same time period, better than only Toronto and Baltimore.
The Red Sox rotation now has a perch for Paul Byrd, called off his couch like Vinny Testeverde used to be. And it's never good when a roster move is analogous to picking up ol' man Vinny. The venerable and heretofore reliable Tim Wakefield is trying to trick Father Time just like he tricks American League batters with his unpredictable knuckleballs. Wakefield gets the ball today in Chicago, but it's been revealed that his back troubles this year ain't the kind that a few Advil are going to make go away. According to MLB.com, there is a loose fragment in his back will have to be surgically removed during the offseason, and officially he's on a start-to-start basis. "He might not be able to take the ball every five days or six," manager Terry Francona said. "But we'll just kind of see how he does."
If he can get out to the mound, good things can still happen for Wake; see his last start on August 26, the only appearance between July 8 and today, for proof of that: 7/6/1/1/1/3. But the Sox need him to take the ball every fifth day now from here to the first weekend in October. The alternative is throwing the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time rookie, Junichi Tazawa back into the rotation.
Boston's seemingly well-crafted plans for their starting rotation have crumbled into flawed blueprints at this point. They're now holding their five-man together with chicken wire, spit and chewing gum.
Of course, the Sox bullpen remains a strong suit. I can't find a site that allows to do a double-split (relievers numbers over the last 30 days, for example), but as far as season-to-date, Boston's pen ranks 1st in ERA (3.57); 5th in BAA; 4th in K/BB; 3rd in K/9; they rank a modest 7th in bullpen WHIP.
So some of the underlying numbers aren't eye-popping, but the overall body of work is still pretty darn good.
In the meantime, Texas made it through the hornet's nest portion of their schedule in August relatively unscathed and now enjoy a stretch where they are playing the Orioles, Indians, Mariners and A's from now until September 16. They have seven games still to play against the Angels, so the division title is still up for grabs to a certain extent. But even if they're relegated just to the Wild Card hunt, the Rangers have to be considered worthy challengers now.
In the same stretch, the Sox will be going against the White Sox, O's, Tampa & the Angels. This is the Rangers' chance to make a definitive move at Boston, as after September 17, the Sox play at Baltimore (their second home); at Kansas City (for four!); at New York (games the Sox will need, and the Yanks' will be sleep-walking); and two carcasses at home in Toronto & Cleveland to wrap things up.
If I stretch my imagination out to its furthest perimeter, I still can't envision the Sox not making it to October Baseball. Things will have to seriously malfunction: a sweep in Chicago; a split in Kansas City; a series loss to a Toronto or a Baltimore. By Boston taking two out of three in Tampa this week, essentially knocking the Rays dead for the winter in the process, they showed me there's still enough in the tank to shuffle through this starting pitching wasteland, gut things out and start anew in the first week of October. It would be shocking if they weren't around to see it.
There's been a lot chatter lately about this Yankee team being the best Bomber outfit since the late 90's. And indeed, over the last month New York has scored the most runs in the American League and allowed the fewest. Something the '98 team did over a full season by a wide margin.
Gammons said yesterday that their pitching is in the best shape it has been in since "the late 90's." Pete Abraham shared some revealing trends & figures that suggest this team is setting up some fancy historical footnotes, that can only be validated by a successful post-season. When the Yankees were establishing a dynasty a decade ago, they played the Rangers in three out of four opening rounds: '96, '98, '99. The fortunes of that first series turned on a late-inning rally and subsequent defensive misplay in Game 2, with the Yankees down 0-1 in the series and on the verge of a quiet exit. (How different would history look if that had happened?) The other series were two of the cleanest white-washes in the history of the post-season.
It would be a surprising coincidence if the Yankees, in a season that is beginning to summon up only recently departed ghosts, play Texas in the 1st round once again.
History's Horizons
I've watched very little baseball this week. The Yankees have been on autopilot for two weeks now, maintaining October Mode better than they have at any time in the last decade. Overall, it's shaping up to be a ho-hum September.
The races in baseball's two eastern divisions are over. The N.L. Central is cooked with the Cards now up 11.5 on the Cubs, and the A.L. Central is on the verge of being locked up with Detroit now six up after last night.
The Dodgers are maintaining a comfortable cushion, while the Angels are doing enough to keep breathing space between themselves and the plucky Rangers.
All that remains are the two Wild Card races to whet our appetite before the October tournament begins. It looks like the Giants & Rockies are going to have great race to the last week of the season. Unfortunately, the teams have only one series left with each other: September 14-16, at San Francisco.
My words from Thursday, July 30:
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Minor miracle or not, the Rangers are now two behind the Red Sox for the American League's last post-season ticket. No other team is even in the mix.
On the morning of August 1, Boston had a 2.5 game advantage on Texas. Since that day the Sox have gone 17-14, while the Rangers have gone 18-14. In a difficult stretch that I figured would knock them out for good, Texas has stood toe-to-toe with the beast from the east.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Over the last 30 days, as their records were suggest, Texas & Boston have played almost dead-even baseball, offensively. Boston's scored 158 runs. Texas: 148. Boston's hitting at a .270/.351/.483 clip. Texas: .283/.345/.468.
Boston has hit seven more homers in that time span, 13 more doubles.
Where the two teams' paths have diverged is on the mound. In the last 30 days, Texas has allowed 117 runs, 2nd fewest in the A.L. to the Yankees' 116. Boston has allowed 150 in that same time period, better than only Toronto and Baltimore.
The Red Sox rotation now has a perch for Paul Byrd, called off his couch like Vinny Testeverde used to be. And it's never good when a roster move is analogous to picking up ol' man Vinny. The venerable and heretofore reliable Tim Wakefield is trying to trick Father Time just like he tricks American League batters with his unpredictable knuckleballs. Wakefield gets the ball today in Chicago, but it's been revealed that his back troubles this year ain't the kind that a few Advil are going to make go away. According to MLB.com, there is a loose fragment in his back will have to be surgically removed during the offseason, and officially he's on a start-to-start basis. "He might not be able to take the ball every five days or six," manager Terry Francona said. "But we'll just kind of see how he does."
If he can get out to the mound, good things can still happen for Wake; see his last start on August 26, the only appearance between July 8 and today, for proof of that: 7/6/1/1/1/3. But the Sox need him to take the ball every fifth day now from here to the first weekend in October. The alternative is throwing the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time rookie, Junichi Tazawa back into the rotation.
Boston's seemingly well-crafted plans for their starting rotation have crumbled into flawed blueprints at this point. They're now holding their five-man together with chicken wire, spit and chewing gum.
Of course, the Sox bullpen remains a strong suit. I can't find a site that allows to do a double-split (relievers numbers over the last 30 days, for example), but as far as season-to-date, Boston's pen ranks 1st in ERA (3.57); 5th in BAA; 4th in K/BB; 3rd in K/9; they rank a modest 7th in bullpen WHIP.
So some of the underlying numbers aren't eye-popping, but the overall body of work is still pretty darn good.
In the meantime, Texas made it through the hornet's nest portion of their schedule in August relatively unscathed and now enjoy a stretch where they are playing the Orioles, Indians, Mariners and A's from now until September 16. They have seven games still to play against the Angels, so the division title is still up for grabs to a certain extent. But even if they're relegated just to the Wild Card hunt, the Rangers have to be considered worthy challengers now.
In the same stretch, the Sox will be going against the White Sox, O's, Tampa & the Angels. This is the Rangers' chance to make a definitive move at Boston, as after September 17, the Sox play at Baltimore (their second home); at Kansas City (for four!); at New York (games the Sox will need, and the Yanks' will be sleep-walking); and two carcasses at home in Toronto & Cleveland to wrap things up.
If I stretch my imagination out to its furthest perimeter, I still can't envision the Sox not making it to October Baseball. Things will have to seriously malfunction: a sweep in Chicago; a split in Kansas City; a series loss to a Toronto or a Baltimore. By Boston taking two out of three in Tampa this week, essentially knocking the Rays dead for the winter in the process, they showed me there's still enough in the tank to shuffle through this starting pitching wasteland, gut things out and start anew in the first week of October. It would be shocking if they weren't around to see it.
There's been a lot chatter lately about this Yankee team being the best Bomber outfit since the late 90's. And indeed, over the last month New York has scored the most runs in the American League and allowed the fewest. Something the '98 team did over a full season by a wide margin.
Gammons said yesterday that their pitching is in the best shape it has been in since "the late 90's." Pete Abraham shared some revealing trends & figures that suggest this team is setting up some fancy historical footnotes, that can only be validated by a successful post-season. When the Yankees were establishing a dynasty a decade ago, they played the Rangers in three out of four opening rounds: '96, '98, '99. The fortunes of that first series turned on a late-inning rally and subsequent defensive misplay in Game 2, with the Yankees down 0-1 in the series and on the verge of a quiet exit. (How different would history look if that had happened?) The other series were two of the cleanest white-washes in the history of the post-season.
It would be a surprising coincidence if the Yankees, in a season that is beginning to summon up only recently departed ghosts, play Texas in the 1st round once again.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
The Object of the World's Loathing
(The Yankees' October Mode Edition)
The Yankees are back home in New York tonight after completing a 7-3 road trip over the last two weeks. In the process of that trip, they put to rest all realistic thoughts that they'll be challenged for the American League East title over the final six weeks of the regular season. For the first time since 2006, the Yanks have entered what myself and a few of my buddies have dubbed "October Mode." As a baseball fan of a particular team, it's a comfortable place to be. Without putting any kind of moniker on it, Joe Girardi, a veteran of a couple of October Mode seasons during his days as the Yankee catcher, is apparently well aware of what this phase of the season means.
From Pete Abraham's blog yesterday, in relation to how hard the Yankees are going to push for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs:
Of course, the last time the Yankees were able to enjoy October Mode, without any blip on the September radar, in the same season that resulted in a World Championship was 11 years ago - 1998. Going into September of that year the Yankees had an 18.5 game lead on the way to 114 regular season wins. That team was in October Mode by the All Star Break.
In 1999, they slipped into October Mode, then out, then comfortably back in for the last couple weeks of the season. Going into September, they had a comfortable 7.5 game lead over Boston and appeared to be at a cruising altitude. However, by the morning of September 14, the lead was down to 3.5 as Boston completed an improbable four-game weekend sweep at Yankee Stadium. A series that included the infamous Pedro 17-strikeout game, which took its rightful place in Yankee-Sox lore.
On the night of the 14th, the Yanks were down 6-1 going into the top of the 8th at Toronto, and with the Sox winning easily, the division lead was about to drop to 2.5. Of course, the dynasty was still alive & kicking at that point, and the Yankees bombed their way to nine runs in the final two frames for a 10-6 victory.
From that point they wheeled out an 8-1 run in their next nine games pushing their lead to a definitive six games, and enabling a final taste of October Mode in the process.
In 2000, the season of their last title, they bungled their way through October Mode, gasping their way to the finish line. Entering September of that year they had a comfortable 5 game lead on Boston and 5.5 on the Blue Jays. Tripped up by a poor final month, including a stretch in which they went 3-15, the Yankees saw their lead fall to 2.5 games by the last day of the season. Of course, they were able to right the ship quickly once the playoffs started and bounced back to win their third title in a row.
In more recent time, any October Modes (2006 comes to mind, when they were up eight games heading into September) have done little to benefit the team's final fate in the post-season.
We'll see where this early entry into October Mode leads this time around.
----
Pennant races, all good ones, all memorable ones, have those catalyst games that remain the mile markers for history. I don't know that a good race remains - the Rockies are looking more & more like a lock for October with each passing day - but Colorado's remarkable extra-inning, walk-off win against the Giants last night felt like one of those definitive games that marks a season. It stamped the Rockies as the clear favorites for the N.L.'s Wild Card (the lead is now up to four on the Giants after the 3-1 series win) and has put the Dodgers on notice that they're going into a hornet's nest starting tonight. In the race for homefield advantage in the N.L. playoffs, the Phillies have the current lead, with the Dodgers one behind in the loss column and the Rockies and Cards both four games behind. Do the Giants have another push at this final spot in them? Everyone else in the N.L. (Braves, Marlins, Cubs, et. al.) are clearly on the fringe of being legitimate participants.
(The Yankees' October Mode Edition)
The Yankees are back home in New York tonight after completing a 7-3 road trip over the last two weeks. In the process of that trip, they put to rest all realistic thoughts that they'll be challenged for the American League East title over the final six weeks of the regular season. For the first time since 2006, the Yanks have entered what myself and a few of my buddies have dubbed "October Mode." As a baseball fan of a particular team, it's a comfortable place to be. Without putting any kind of moniker on it, Joe Girardi, a veteran of a couple of October Mode seasons during his days as the Yankee catcher, is apparently well aware of what this phase of the season means.
From Pete Abraham's blog yesterday, in relation to how hard the Yankees are going to push for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs:
The race is on for home field advantage in the playoffs. The Yankees are 78-46 and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Orange County and Planet Earth are 74-48.
The teams will play four more times head to head. Once at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 14 in a makeup game and three times in Anaheim starting Sept. 21.
Joe Girardi said yesterday that his team will push for home field but not at the expense of making sure his players, especially the pitchers, get the right amount of time off. That makes good sense.
October Mode means balancing out the house cleaning necessary for the rest of the season (and to be sure, for the Yankees home field advantage would be advantageous against a team like the Angels) & making sure the regulars are healed and well-rested. It doesn't make for the most compelling baseball in the world, but it's a small price to pay to assured of October baseball, and to put a team in the best possible position for success in the post-season.The teams will play four more times head to head. Once at Yankee Stadium on Sept. 14 in a makeup game and three times in Anaheim starting Sept. 21.
Joe Girardi said yesterday that his team will push for home field but not at the expense of making sure his players, especially the pitchers, get the right amount of time off. That makes good sense.
Of course, the last time the Yankees were able to enjoy October Mode, without any blip on the September radar, in the same season that resulted in a World Championship was 11 years ago - 1998. Going into September of that year the Yankees had an 18.5 game lead on the way to 114 regular season wins. That team was in October Mode by the All Star Break.
In 1999, they slipped into October Mode, then out, then comfortably back in for the last couple weeks of the season. Going into September, they had a comfortable 7.5 game lead over Boston and appeared to be at a cruising altitude. However, by the morning of September 14, the lead was down to 3.5 as Boston completed an improbable four-game weekend sweep at Yankee Stadium. A series that included the infamous Pedro 17-strikeout game, which took its rightful place in Yankee-Sox lore.
On the night of the 14th, the Yanks were down 6-1 going into the top of the 8th at Toronto, and with the Sox winning easily, the division lead was about to drop to 2.5. Of course, the dynasty was still alive & kicking at that point, and the Yankees bombed their way to nine runs in the final two frames for a 10-6 victory.
From that point they wheeled out an 8-1 run in their next nine games pushing their lead to a definitive six games, and enabling a final taste of October Mode in the process.
In 2000, the season of their last title, they bungled their way through October Mode, gasping their way to the finish line. Entering September of that year they had a comfortable 5 game lead on Boston and 5.5 on the Blue Jays. Tripped up by a poor final month, including a stretch in which they went 3-15, the Yankees saw their lead fall to 2.5 games by the last day of the season. Of course, they were able to right the ship quickly once the playoffs started and bounced back to win their third title in a row.
In more recent time, any October Modes (2006 comes to mind, when they were up eight games heading into September) have done little to benefit the team's final fate in the post-season.
We'll see where this early entry into October Mode leads this time around.
----
Pennant races, all good ones, all memorable ones, have those catalyst games that remain the mile markers for history. I don't know that a good race remains - the Rockies are looking more & more like a lock for October with each passing day - but Colorado's remarkable extra-inning, walk-off win against the Giants last night felt like one of those definitive games that marks a season. It stamped the Rockies as the clear favorites for the N.L.'s Wild Card (the lead is now up to four on the Giants after the 3-1 series win) and has put the Dodgers on notice that they're going into a hornet's nest starting tonight. In the race for homefield advantage in the N.L. playoffs, the Phillies have the current lead, with the Dodgers one behind in the loss column and the Rockies and Cards both four games behind. Do the Giants have another push at this final spot in them? Everyone else in the N.L. (Braves, Marlins, Cubs, et. al.) are clearly on the fringe of being legitimate participants.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Weekend Preview
(Summer Heat, The Summer Game Edition)
Another weekend in summer. Another Yankee-Red Sox series. Of course this series has less resonance than when the two rivals met at Yankee Stadium just two weeks ago. Importance? It's still there from Boston's perspective, as the Rangers are right there with them, battling for the American League's fourth playoff spot. Texas is one game behind entering today's play. Tampa remains on the fringe at four back.
However, it goes without saying that the Yankees don't want to stumble around the Fens this weekend and get swept. But even losing 2 of 3 isn't cause for any consternation or gastrointestinal rumblings.
Boston's bats, so quiet in the last Yankee series, have to come to life in the last few days in Toronto. The Yanks appear to have the pitching advantage in the first two games (Pettitte vs. Penny and Burnett vs. Tazawa), with Boston getting the pitching nod in a great prime time match-up on Sunday: Sabathia vs. Beckett. A potential Game 1 ALCS preview right there.
---
Other series of note for the weekend:
Texas @ Tampa. Wild Card contestants #2 and #3 at the moment. I keep waiting for Tampa to make that one great stand, that one big winning streak to catapult them to the top of the Wild Card standings . . . but it just doesn't come. A series loss here at home to the Rangers would be telling.
Giants @ Rockies. Who would've thought a couple months into the season that a late August series between San Fran and Colorado would be the premier N.L. match-up of a given weekend? With the Dodgers seemingly just going through the motions in these Dog Days, the Rockies (winners of four in a row, 7-3 in their last 10) are within 3.5 games of Los Angeles. And the Giants are only two behind them. With the Cubs' August swoon, these two N.L. West teams have become the front-runners in the Wild Card race, with Florida & Atlanta remaining just far enough above mediocrity to remain players.
The Rockies upcoming stretch includes this four-game wrap-around series hosting the Giants, then home vs. the Dodgers for three, then three next weekend at San Francisco. After that (which kicks off their September schedule): a manageable homestand featuring the Mets, D-Backs and Reds; a three-team road trip (San Diego; San Fran; and Arizona); a homestand of the Padres; Cards; and Brewers; and finally a season-ending three game series at Los Angeles, which against long odds could have division implications on it. And at the very least will probably have playoff implications for the Rockies.
The other series worth mentioning for this weekend is the Cubs at the Dodgers, a rematch of the NLDS surprise series from a year ago. This timeframe is pretty much it for Chicago. They're now seven back in the Central (did that happen fast or what?) and they've lost four games to the Rockies in the Wild Card standings in the last week-and-a-half. They're now six games out of a playoff spot. While the Dodgers have to tighten the ship and make sure they don't blow this division lead, the Cubs are in pure survival mode at this point. They're talented enough to make a run, but their dysfunctionality, underperformance and bad luck, to this point, have all conspired to make this a lost season for many people's preseason favorites in the National League.
Have a great weekend whatever your plans are. It's been brutally hot & humid in the Northeast with temps hitting 90 consistently, and enough moisture in the air to make any movement laborious. Can't wait for this weather system to blow the heck out of here and bring more September-like weather . . .
(Summer Heat, The Summer Game Edition)
Another weekend in summer. Another Yankee-Red Sox series. Of course this series has less resonance than when the two rivals met at Yankee Stadium just two weeks ago. Importance? It's still there from Boston's perspective, as the Rangers are right there with them, battling for the American League's fourth playoff spot. Texas is one game behind entering today's play. Tampa remains on the fringe at four back.
However, it goes without saying that the Yankees don't want to stumble around the Fens this weekend and get swept. But even losing 2 of 3 isn't cause for any consternation or gastrointestinal rumblings.
Boston's bats, so quiet in the last Yankee series, have to come to life in the last few days in Toronto. The Yanks appear to have the pitching advantage in the first two games (Pettitte vs. Penny and Burnett vs. Tazawa), with Boston getting the pitching nod in a great prime time match-up on Sunday: Sabathia vs. Beckett. A potential Game 1 ALCS preview right there.
---
Other series of note for the weekend:
Texas @ Tampa. Wild Card contestants #2 and #3 at the moment. I keep waiting for Tampa to make that one great stand, that one big winning streak to catapult them to the top of the Wild Card standings . . . but it just doesn't come. A series loss here at home to the Rangers would be telling.
Giants @ Rockies. Who would've thought a couple months into the season that a late August series between San Fran and Colorado would be the premier N.L. match-up of a given weekend? With the Dodgers seemingly just going through the motions in these Dog Days, the Rockies (winners of four in a row, 7-3 in their last 10) are within 3.5 games of Los Angeles. And the Giants are only two behind them. With the Cubs' August swoon, these two N.L. West teams have become the front-runners in the Wild Card race, with Florida & Atlanta remaining just far enough above mediocrity to remain players.
The Rockies upcoming stretch includes this four-game wrap-around series hosting the Giants, then home vs. the Dodgers for three, then three next weekend at San Francisco. After that (which kicks off their September schedule): a manageable homestand featuring the Mets, D-Backs and Reds; a three-team road trip (San Diego; San Fran; and Arizona); a homestand of the Padres; Cards; and Brewers; and finally a season-ending three game series at Los Angeles, which against long odds could have division implications on it. And at the very least will probably have playoff implications for the Rockies.
The other series worth mentioning for this weekend is the Cubs at the Dodgers, a rematch of the NLDS surprise series from a year ago. This timeframe is pretty much it for Chicago. They're now seven back in the Central (did that happen fast or what?) and they've lost four games to the Rockies in the Wild Card standings in the last week-and-a-half. They're now six games out of a playoff spot. While the Dodgers have to tighten the ship and make sure they don't blow this division lead, the Cubs are in pure survival mode at this point. They're talented enough to make a run, but their dysfunctionality, underperformance and bad luck, to this point, have all conspired to make this a lost season for many people's preseason favorites in the National League.
Have a great weekend whatever your plans are. It's been brutally hot & humid in the Northeast with temps hitting 90 consistently, and enough moisture in the air to make any movement laborious. Can't wait for this weather system to blow the heck out of here and bring more September-like weather . . .
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Going Quietly Into That Good Night
(The Bats Take a Night Off Edition)
The Yanks clearly had one of their more favorable pitching match-ups of the season last night, as Brett "don't let the door hit you on the way out" Tomko took the hill for the A's against A.J. Burnett.
From the outset, the Yankees had no trouble centering Tomko's pitches, as the first three batters in the game (Jeter/Damon/Teixeira) all had good swings. However, only Teixeira's AB resulted in a baserunner, as he ripped a double into the right field corner, but was left stranded after an A-Rod pop-up. Unfortunately, more good swings would be hard to come by for the next eight innings.
Burnett came out dealing in the bottom of the opening frame with two K's, one looking.
The A's hit A.J. relatively hard in the bottom of the 2nd, but New York was aided by a Posada caught stealing (on a pitchout), and a fine play by Johnny Damon on a hard hit ball to left.
The Yanks blew a golden opportunity in the 3rd, after lead-off singles by Ramiro Pena and Derek Jeter, and a one-out walk to Teixeira to load the bases, A-Rod hit a weak come-backer to Tomko that resulted in a 1-2-3 double play. At this point (3 IP, 0 R), the veteran was more than holding his own.
After another zero on the board for Tomko in the top of the 4th, Oakland broke through for the first run of the game after a double by Davis and single up the middle by Kurt Suzuki. A two-out balk (Burnett was in his wind-up, stopped and did a half-stumble off the mound) plated a second run, and double up the right field gap by Mark Ellis knocked in another run for a 3-0 Oakland lead through four.
Meanwhile, Tomko continued to pitch his "dream" game, exacting revenge on the franchise that he thought treated him unfairly earlier in the season. One weak pop-up or fly ball after another, the Yanks' offense exhibited a malaise from the middle innings onward that we've seldom seen this year.
The A's went to the Pen in the 6th, bringing in lefty Craig Breslow and it was more of the same: 1-2-3 inning, two pop-ups and a strikeout.
Burnett (10-6), while far from being lights-out (5 Ks), gutted out eight innings, with the only blemish being the messy 4th. His line: 99 pitches, 8/6/3/3/2/5. If not the most frustrating loss he's had this season (in terms of pitching well and still getting hung with the "L"), it was probably the most surprising considering his counterpart. But as John Sterling has said once or twice, "Hey, that's baseball. It's not like the other sports."
The Yanks' offense, meanwhile, remained in "sleep" mode for the rest of the game. They mounted a quiet rally in the 8th, putting two runners on with two outs, but Posada struck out, and in the 9th they went down 1-2-3.
No panic buttons on this end, by any stretch of the imagination. But New York has blown a chance to add 1.5 games to their division lead in the past two days, and with the Angels beating Baltimore last night both teams are even in the loss column at 45.
The Sox start a series tonight in Toronto, while Tampa hosts Baltimore and Texas continues its series against the Twins, of which they won the opener last night, going up 1 full game in the Wild Card chase.
Other late action that has playoff implications: The Cards won the series opener in Los Angeles last night 3-2, with Chris Carpenter going to 13-3 (2.27 ERA) on the season. Pujols hit his 39th homer of the season, and with the win St. Louis is now a robust six games up on the Cubs, 4-1 losers in San Diego. The gap between the two midwestern rivals has widened quickly, reminiscent of how fast the Yanks were able to build a sizable lead against Boston. In the last 10 games, St. Louis has gone 9-1, while the Cubbies have gone 3-7. Although I'm not giving the N.L. West race much credence, Colorado is now a manageable 4.5 games behind the Dodgers, picking up three games in the last 10.
Th Cards are showing more punch in the heat of August than I ever would've expected earlier in the season, and are starting to elbow their way at the same table as the heretofore N.L. favorites, Philadelphia and the Dodgers. I don't think they're quite there yet (they've needed a great two- or three-week run just to get into the discussion), but their stellar play of late has added one more interesting aspect when thinking about potential playoff match-ups.
(The Bats Take a Night Off Edition)
The Yanks clearly had one of their more favorable pitching match-ups of the season last night, as Brett "don't let the door hit you on the way out" Tomko took the hill for the A's against A.J. Burnett.
From the outset, the Yankees had no trouble centering Tomko's pitches, as the first three batters in the game (Jeter/Damon/Teixeira) all had good swings. However, only Teixeira's AB resulted in a baserunner, as he ripped a double into the right field corner, but was left stranded after an A-Rod pop-up. Unfortunately, more good swings would be hard to come by for the next eight innings.
Burnett came out dealing in the bottom of the opening frame with two K's, one looking.
The A's hit A.J. relatively hard in the bottom of the 2nd, but New York was aided by a Posada caught stealing (on a pitchout), and a fine play by Johnny Damon on a hard hit ball to left.
The Yanks blew a golden opportunity in the 3rd, after lead-off singles by Ramiro Pena and Derek Jeter, and a one-out walk to Teixeira to load the bases, A-Rod hit a weak come-backer to Tomko that resulted in a 1-2-3 double play. At this point (3 IP, 0 R), the veteran was more than holding his own.
After another zero on the board for Tomko in the top of the 4th, Oakland broke through for the first run of the game after a double by Davis and single up the middle by Kurt Suzuki. A two-out balk (Burnett was in his wind-up, stopped and did a half-stumble off the mound) plated a second run, and double up the right field gap by Mark Ellis knocked in another run for a 3-0 Oakland lead through four.
Meanwhile, Tomko continued to pitch his "dream" game, exacting revenge on the franchise that he thought treated him unfairly earlier in the season. One weak pop-up or fly ball after another, the Yanks' offense exhibited a malaise from the middle innings onward that we've seldom seen this year.
The A's went to the Pen in the 6th, bringing in lefty Craig Breslow and it was more of the same: 1-2-3 inning, two pop-ups and a strikeout.
Burnett (10-6), while far from being lights-out (5 Ks), gutted out eight innings, with the only blemish being the messy 4th. His line: 99 pitches, 8/6/3/3/2/5. If not the most frustrating loss he's had this season (in terms of pitching well and still getting hung with the "L"), it was probably the most surprising considering his counterpart. But as John Sterling has said once or twice, "Hey, that's baseball. It's not like the other sports."
The Yanks' offense, meanwhile, remained in "sleep" mode for the rest of the game. They mounted a quiet rally in the 8th, putting two runners on with two outs, but Posada struck out, and in the 9th they went down 1-2-3.
No panic buttons on this end, by any stretch of the imagination. But New York has blown a chance to add 1.5 games to their division lead in the past two days, and with the Angels beating Baltimore last night both teams are even in the loss column at 45.
The Sox start a series tonight in Toronto, while Tampa hosts Baltimore and Texas continues its series against the Twins, of which they won the opener last night, going up 1 full game in the Wild Card chase.
Other late action that has playoff implications: The Cards won the series opener in Los Angeles last night 3-2, with Chris Carpenter going to 13-3 (2.27 ERA) on the season. Pujols hit his 39th homer of the season, and with the win St. Louis is now a robust six games up on the Cubs, 4-1 losers in San Diego. The gap between the two midwestern rivals has widened quickly, reminiscent of how fast the Yanks were able to build a sizable lead against Boston. In the last 10 games, St. Louis has gone 9-1, while the Cubbies have gone 3-7. Although I'm not giving the N.L. West race much credence, Colorado is now a manageable 4.5 games behind the Dodgers, picking up three games in the last 10.
Th Cards are showing more punch in the heat of August than I ever would've expected earlier in the season, and are starting to elbow their way at the same table as the heretofore N.L. favorites, Philadelphia and the Dodgers. I don't think they're quite there yet (they've needed a great two- or three-week run just to get into the discussion), but their stellar play of late has added one more interesting aspect when thinking about potential playoff match-ups.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
A Series in August.
Revisiting something I wrote a little less than two months ago, June 17 to be exact:
As we've hit the long-awaited date of August 6, the date that begins yet another big Yankee-Red Sox series, there is a sense that there is something particularly special about this installment of the rivalry. And I would suspect the core of that sentiment is unique to the Yankee fan side of the equation. For as much as the Nation would like the Boston white-washing of the Bombers to continue ad infinitum, and can't be pleased about being knocked off their first-place perch, there is a sense of urgent relief bubbling inside the Yankee fan, that is akin to hearing firefighters clamoring through the shaft after you've been stuck inside an elevator for a few hours. We know this isn't going to last forever, but 0-8 has been a dark cloud continuously hanging over the summer. Whether it ends tonight, tomorrow, Saturday . . . it's going to end soon.
My long-winded point is that this series is more about the Yankees than it is about the Red Sox. The Yankees are the team, despite the improbable 2.5 game lead in the division, that has the boatload to prove to Boston (and to themselves and their fan base) as opposed to the other way around. And although there is no substitute for post-season baseball, this series is as close to a simulation as the regular season can offer. And there are still serious doubts about how this Yankee unit will perform in the post-season, especially considering their performance against Boston and LAAnaheim in recent times.
A.L. East
The Yankees have over-performed my off-the-cuff projection in June by three games. Boston has under-performed by four games. It doesn't sound like a huge difference, but that's a seven-game swing in the loss column from what I was expecting. More than being surprised at the Yankees doing a little better than I thought that would, the Sox haven't been as crisp as I thought they'd be in a stretch of their schedule that was very favorable. Although the sight of the Rays over the last couple nights wasn't enough to kick them into another gear, pinstriped blood in the water tends to bring out their resourceful, grinding best. I expect nothing less.
One of the differences with this series is that for the first time in recent memory, the Yanks are playing the Sox to an even match-up in the starting pitching department. At least on paper. The Yanks have the edge on Thursday; Boston on Friday; Yanks on Saturday; Boston on Sunday. And to further that point, the New York's pitching advantages (Joba over Smoltz; Sabathia over Buchholz) are larger than Boston's (Beckett over Burnett; Lester over Pettitte). Now in saying this, I'm cognizant that no one would be surprised if Joba is wild tonight in the bright lights of the Bronx, and Smoltz, like a wily old outlaw, steps up his game and throws six innings of two-run ball. However, just a general look at the match-ups suggests the Yankees have shot to fare well here.
[I do question the need to bring Phil Hughes into a game with a three-run lead last night, presumably making him unavailable for tonight; he pitched Tues. & Wed. However, he got the job done, the Yanks preserved the lead and a win is a win is a win.]
Weather.com suggests only slight nuisances at the Stadium over the next four days. Chance of a shower or two this evening; showers on Saturday; and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Friday night looks perfect. I'll be heading to the game on Saturday, and for now I'll hold out hope that the local Connecticut forecast which I saw yesterday holds up, as that day was dubbed their "Pick of the Weekend."
I'll try and drop a word here or word there over the next four days, as I'm anxious to see how this plays out. My prediction: a 2-2 series split, that will go a little against the grain. I think Boston will get either the Thurs. or Sat. game, and the Yanks will get either the Fri. or Sun. game.
A little taste of October in August. Nothing wrong with that.
(The Rivalry That Keeps on Giving Edition)
Revisiting something I wrote a little less than two months ago, June 17 to be exact:
Just knocking through the schedules quickly, I put the Sox at 66-40 and the Yankees at 62-45 going into their next series, August 6-9 at Yankee Stadium. By that time, I think the Yanks have a shot to be up 5+ games in the Wild Card, which means any subsequent match-ups between Boston and New York will be more about playoff positioning than anything else. Beyond the issue of the Yankees trying to get over the impenetrable, tantalizing, mind-numbing wall of beating Boston for the first time this year, if they can jockey back into position to make a run at the division over the final six or seven weeks of the season, it could be to their clear advantage come October.
As we've hit the long-awaited date of August 6, the date that begins yet another big Yankee-Red Sox series, there is a sense that there is something particularly special about this installment of the rivalry. And I would suspect the core of that sentiment is unique to the Yankee fan side of the equation. For as much as the Nation would like the Boston white-washing of the Bombers to continue ad infinitum, and can't be pleased about being knocked off their first-place perch, there is a sense of urgent relief bubbling inside the Yankee fan, that is akin to hearing firefighters clamoring through the shaft after you've been stuck inside an elevator for a few hours. We know this isn't going to last forever, but 0-8 has been a dark cloud continuously hanging over the summer. Whether it ends tonight, tomorrow, Saturday . . . it's going to end soon.
My long-winded point is that this series is more about the Yankees than it is about the Red Sox. The Yankees are the team, despite the improbable 2.5 game lead in the division, that has the boatload to prove to Boston (and to themselves and their fan base) as opposed to the other way around. And although there is no substitute for post-season baseball, this series is as close to a simulation as the regular season can offer. And there are still serious doubts about how this Yankee unit will perform in the post-season, especially considering their performance against Boston and LAAnaheim in recent times.
A.L. East
| Team | Record | GB |
| New York | ||
| Boston |
The Yankees have over-performed my off-the-cuff projection in June by three games. Boston has under-performed by four games. It doesn't sound like a huge difference, but that's a seven-game swing in the loss column from what I was expecting. More than being surprised at the Yankees doing a little better than I thought that would, the Sox haven't been as crisp as I thought they'd be in a stretch of their schedule that was very favorable. Although the sight of the Rays over the last couple nights wasn't enough to kick them into another gear, pinstriped blood in the water tends to bring out their resourceful, grinding best. I expect nothing less.
One of the differences with this series is that for the first time in recent memory, the Yanks are playing the Sox to an even match-up in the starting pitching department. At least on paper. The Yanks have the edge on Thursday; Boston on Friday; Yanks on Saturday; Boston on Sunday. And to further that point, the New York's pitching advantages (Joba over Smoltz; Sabathia over Buchholz) are larger than Boston's (Beckett over Burnett; Lester over Pettitte). Now in saying this, I'm cognizant that no one would be surprised if Joba is wild tonight in the bright lights of the Bronx, and Smoltz, like a wily old outlaw, steps up his game and throws six innings of two-run ball. However, just a general look at the match-ups suggests the Yankees have shot to fare well here.
[I do question the need to bring Phil Hughes into a game with a three-run lead last night, presumably making him unavailable for tonight; he pitched Tues. & Wed. However, he got the job done, the Yanks preserved the lead and a win is a win is a win.]
Weather.com suggests only slight nuisances at the Stadium over the next four days. Chance of a shower or two this evening; showers on Saturday; and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday. Friday night looks perfect. I'll be heading to the game on Saturday, and for now I'll hold out hope that the local Connecticut forecast which I saw yesterday holds up, as that day was dubbed their "Pick of the Weekend."
I'll try and drop a word here or word there over the next four days, as I'm anxious to see how this plays out. My prediction: a 2-2 series split, that will go a little against the grain. I think Boston will get either the Thurs. or Sat. game, and the Yanks will get either the Fri. or Sun. game.
A little taste of October in August. Nothing wrong with that.
Sunday, August 02, 2009
Sunday Morning Coffee
(The Spittin' in the Wind Edition)
As if being decreed by the baseball gods, it seems inevitable that by the time Thursday night rolls around the Yankees and Red Sox will be in close to something like a virtual tie for first place in the American League's eastern division. Like the swift nature in which New York had built a 3.5 game lead on the Boston nine, the Sox have erased three games in three nights and are now an insignificant one-half game out of first place.
While the Yankees have been getting bonked around the Windy City this weekend, Boston has been enjoying the usual cosy comforts of Fenway Park South, a.k.a. Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In 48 hours the very fabric of the race has changed. And not just because of a couple of blow-out, forgettable losses by the Yanks.
No, the shift in the winds has everything to do with the composition of the Boston line-up now:
CF Ellsbury, CF
2B Pedroia, 2B
1B V. Martinez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
LF Bay
Jiminy Christmas, that's a potent top six . . . Any line-up gap between the two rivals has been narrowed considerably by this shrewd move by Theo Epstein. (Hey, he's been around the block long enough that we can cease preceding his name with "Boy Wonder GM," correct?)
I can only hope that inserting Martinez dead-smack in the middle of that line-up will be the equivalent of putting a wet rag on smoldering embers. The Red Sox line-up has been putt-putt-puttering along over the last month, and Martinez hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either: .161/.268/.279 over his last 30 games as Goldman pointed out.
What's more likely to happen is that Martinez is going to find a nice groove with the bubble of Pedroia/Youkilis/Papi/Bay hitting around him. Batting average aside, he's not that far-off his 2007 rates (he missed a substantial amount of time last year due to injury).
2007: .301/.374/.505
2009: .283/.366/.461
As is the way with this rivalry over the last five years, the infusion of giddiness in Beantown coincides with the moment that the Yankees usually slip on a banana peel. While the Red Sox were wheeling & dealing in an effort to raise their chances of winning the pennant, the Yankees were adding . . . . . . Jerry Hairston, Jr. .
Now, I have nothing against Jerry Hairston, Jr. He is what he is: a utility guy who can pretty much play anywhere on the diamond. With the stick? Well, there's a lot to be desired . . . However, in 297 PAs last season he actually hit .326/.384/.487 for the Reds. If there's any chance he can catch some of that lightning, then maybe this will turn into a useful pick-up. Chances are probably slim that's going to happen, and the reality is that he's just one more caddy for the hobbled and rickety players that man the left side of the diamond on a daily basis: Damon & Rodriguez.
(And, now can we get Cody Ransom off this baseball team? What is the point of having Hairston and Ransom on this team? It's becoming more and more remarkable that the Yankees are giving away at-bats (86 PAs) to date to a guy hitting .190/.256/.329. Enough. Please.)
My buddy's going to hold my feet to the fire on my "the Rays ain't catching the Yankees" proclamation. That's fine; Tampa's picked up three games in three days in the loss column, reducing the number to five. And unless C.C. Sabathia can pitch a big game this afternoon, that number could very fall to a suddenly manageable four games.
However, once the Royals are off the slate after Monday afternoon the Rays' consistency will be put to the test for the rest of August. Two games vs. Boston; a West Coast trip to Seattle and Anaheim; three games against the Rangers; and a four-game series at Detroit. Stretching it even further, Tampa's first 13 games of September are against Detroit, Boston and New York.
If the Rays are still alive & kicking (within 2 or 3 games) on September 14, than maybe I'll start preparing myself for eating a large dose of crow. But until then, I'll keep the faith that the Yankees can stave off an epic collapse, and focus on what it's going to take to stay in first place.
---
Goldman's take on Washburn to the Tigers:
When the pitching staff is hanging on by a thread after giving up 24 runs in the two days to the White Sox, this non-move is going to start looking worse on a daily basis. However, I'm willing to see how this plays out, in terms of a possible waiver-trade. They've already shifted the rotation so Mitre will miss the Boston series. The bad news is that he's probably going to have his brains beat in by the Blue Jays on Wednesday. And throw in the fact that Halladay's pitching against Pettitte on Monday, and there's a great chance the Yanks are going to be stumbling into that Boston series like a dazed prize-fighter.
Just get me to Thursday night, and we'll take it from there.
(The Spittin' in the Wind Edition)
As if being decreed by the baseball gods, it seems inevitable that by the time Thursday night rolls around the Yankees and Red Sox will be in close to something like a virtual tie for first place in the American League's eastern division. Like the swift nature in which New York had built a 3.5 game lead on the Boston nine, the Sox have erased three games in three nights and are now an insignificant one-half game out of first place.
While the Yankees have been getting bonked around the Windy City this weekend, Boston has been enjoying the usual cosy comforts of Fenway Park South, a.k.a. Oriole Park at Camden Yards. In 48 hours the very fabric of the race has changed. And not just because of a couple of blow-out, forgettable losses by the Yanks.
No, the shift in the winds has everything to do with the composition of the Boston line-up now:
CF Ellsbury, CF
2B Pedroia, 2B
1B V. Martinez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
LF Bay
Jiminy Christmas, that's a potent top six . . . Any line-up gap between the two rivals has been narrowed considerably by this shrewd move by Theo Epstein. (Hey, he's been around the block long enough that we can cease preceding his name with "Boy Wonder GM," correct?)
I can only hope that inserting Martinez dead-smack in the middle of that line-up will be the equivalent of putting a wet rag on smoldering embers. The Red Sox line-up has been putt-putt-puttering along over the last month, and Martinez hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard either: .161/.268/.279 over his last 30 games as Goldman pointed out.
What's more likely to happen is that Martinez is going to find a nice groove with the bubble of Pedroia/Youkilis/Papi/Bay hitting around him. Batting average aside, he's not that far-off his 2007 rates (he missed a substantial amount of time last year due to injury).
2007: .301/.374/.505
2009: .283/.366/.461
As is the way with this rivalry over the last five years, the infusion of giddiness in Beantown coincides with the moment that the Yankees usually slip on a banana peel. While the Red Sox were wheeling & dealing in an effort to raise their chances of winning the pennant, the Yankees were adding . . .
Now, I have nothing against Jerry Hairston, Jr. He is what he is: a utility guy who can pretty much play anywhere on the diamond. With the stick? Well, there's a lot to be desired . . . However, in 297 PAs last season he actually hit .326/.384/.487 for the Reds. If there's any chance he can catch some of that lightning, then maybe this will turn into a useful pick-up. Chances are probably slim that's going to happen, and the reality is that he's just one more caddy for the hobbled and rickety players that man the left side of the diamond on a daily basis: Damon & Rodriguez.
(And, now can we get Cody Ransom off this baseball team? What is the point of having Hairston and Ransom on this team? It's becoming more and more remarkable that the Yankees are giving away at-bats (86 PAs) to date to a guy hitting .190/.256/.329. Enough. Please.)
My buddy's going to hold my feet to the fire on my "the Rays ain't catching the Yankees" proclamation. That's fine; Tampa's picked up three games in three days in the loss column, reducing the number to five. And unless C.C. Sabathia can pitch a big game this afternoon, that number could very fall to a suddenly manageable four games.
However, once the Royals are off the slate after Monday afternoon the Rays' consistency will be put to the test for the rest of August. Two games vs. Boston; a West Coast trip to Seattle and Anaheim; three games against the Rangers; and a four-game series at Detroit. Stretching it even further, Tampa's first 13 games of September are against Detroit, Boston and New York.
If the Rays are still alive & kicking (within 2 or 3 games) on September 14, than maybe I'll start preparing myself for eating a large dose of crow. But until then, I'll keep the faith that the Yankees can stave off an epic collapse, and focus on what it's going to take to stay in first place.
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Goldman's take on Washburn to the Tigers:
In terms of the moves the Yankees did not make, it's a bit surprising to see the long-coveted Jarod Wasburn go to the Tigers for two left-handed pitching prospects, Luke French, who has pitched seven games in the majors this year with strong results, and Mauricio Robles, an A-ball pitcher. Neither is a high-value prospect, just "interesting," and it seems odd that the Yankees couldn't have made a competitive offer had they wanted to do so.
When the pitching staff is hanging on by a thread after giving up 24 runs in the two days to the White Sox, this non-move is going to start looking worse on a daily basis. However, I'm willing to see how this plays out, in terms of a possible waiver-trade. They've already shifted the rotation so Mitre will miss the Boston series. The bad news is that he's probably going to have his brains beat in by the Blue Jays on Wednesday. And throw in the fact that Halladay's pitching against Pettitte on Monday, and there's a great chance the Yanks are going to be stumbling into that Boston series like a dazed prize-fighter.
Just get me to Thursday night, and we'll take it from there.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
On the Ropes or Down for the Count?
(The Rays on the Brink Edition)
Without much deliberation, I'm sticking by words from Monday: with the loss-column deficit at eight games, the Rays aren't going to catch the Yankees this season.
As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus lists the Yankees chances of reaching the post-season at 89.5%. According to their simulations, the only other team that has a better shot is the Dodgers who are 98% assured of playing October baseball.
If you wanted to stretch me to the outer reaches of plausibility, I guess I'd at least listen to an argument why Texas (four games behind New York in the loss column) could catch the Yanks. But I ain't buying it.
The Yankees haven't metaphorically been able to relax in a hammock during the dog days of summer since that lost season of 2004. I can only hope that this season doesn't have a similar conclusion.
On this date five years ago, the Yanks were 63-38, one game better than their record now, and enjoyed a 7.5 game cushion on 2nd place Boston. While the Red Sox are closer in the standings this time around, the confident feeling of this team landing in the post-season isn't any less.
This is not to suggest I'm going to go off with a lemonade in my hand, kick back and doze through the rest of the regular season. There is work to be done. Aside from the business of putting the finishing touches on the organization of the pitching staff and getting back to (and maintaining) 100% health (Aceves, Gardner, the creaky bones of Damon, Matsui, et. al.), there is the matter of saving some face against Boston in the remaining 10 games. More than bragging rights in the Connecticut border war, the stake of the division is an important one for New York. Consider the difference between opening the ALDS in Anaheim vs. opening it vs. the A.L. Central winner at Yankee Stadium 2. Consider the difference between playing a Game 7 at Fenway Park vs. the mallpark in the Bronx. And I don't think anything else needs to be said on the matter. Winning the A.L. East this year isn't about tacking up another division championship banner; it could be at the very core of dictating whether this team can erase the recent trend of post-season failure.
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While the Red Sox are clearly scuffling in this time frame, incredibly dropping 6.5 games to New York in the standings in less than two weeks, I'm not convinced that Rays are going to be able to make a run at them to close the current five-game loss-column gap.
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Which, in a roundabout way, brings me back to Boston. Although the denizens of the Fens are feeling their customary melancholia when things aren't going well, I still think they don't have much to sweat here. Maybe it's my pro-Boston bias (and by pro-Boston, I'm referring to my belief that they're still the best short series team in the sport, not pro-Boston in a pom-pom sort of way - just want to be clear on that one), but I still think they're going to win the East. Tampa's dropped the ball here, quickly turning my effusiveness about a three-team race into meaningless and premature babble. And even taking my optimistic hope to the furthest limits, I can't picture a world in which the Texas Rangers are pushing the Sox for a playoff spot in the rough waters of the stretch run of the season, i.e. mid to late September.
We'll see if the Sox play to my expectations. Right now they look as vulnerable as they have in several seasons. Both for reasons of their own doing (sticking with Penny too long (?), an over-reliance on the return of John Smoltz) and by bad fortune (Dice-K; Wakefield's injury), their starting rotation is out-of-whack.
The quick fix lies on the horizon. Or more specifically over the Canadian border. I think the tides have turned in favor of a Boston-Toronto trade, and I will be mildly surprised if the Sox don't have Halladay in their rotation by the weekend. And once that happens, the Red Sox will have made their path to the World Series very clear & distinct, and the prospect of failure (especially at the hands of the Yankees) that much more unacceptable.
(The Rays on the Brink Edition)
Without much deliberation, I'm sticking by words from Monday: with the loss-column deficit at eight games, the Rays aren't going to catch the Yankees this season.
As of this morning, Baseball Prospectus lists the Yankees chances of reaching the post-season at 89.5%. According to their simulations, the only other team that has a better shot is the Dodgers who are 98% assured of playing October baseball.
If you wanted to stretch me to the outer reaches of plausibility, I guess I'd at least listen to an argument why Texas (four games behind New York in the loss column) could catch the Yanks. But I ain't buying it.
The Yankees haven't metaphorically been able to relax in a hammock during the dog days of summer since that lost season of 2004. I can only hope that this season doesn't have a similar conclusion.
On this date five years ago, the Yanks were 63-38, one game better than their record now, and enjoyed a 7.5 game cushion on 2nd place Boston. While the Red Sox are closer in the standings this time around, the confident feeling of this team landing in the post-season isn't any less.
This is not to suggest I'm going to go off with a lemonade in my hand, kick back and doze through the rest of the regular season. There is work to be done. Aside from the business of putting the finishing touches on the organization of the pitching staff and getting back to (and maintaining) 100% health (Aceves, Gardner, the creaky bones of Damon, Matsui, et. al.), there is the matter of saving some face against Boston in the remaining 10 games. More than bragging rights in the Connecticut border war, the stake of the division is an important one for New York. Consider the difference between opening the ALDS in Anaheim vs. opening it vs. the A.L. Central winner at Yankee Stadium 2. Consider the difference between playing a Game 7 at Fenway Park vs. the mallpark in the Bronx. And I don't think anything else needs to be said on the matter. Winning the A.L. East this year isn't about tacking up another division championship banner; it could be at the very core of dictating whether this team can erase the recent trend of post-season failure.
---
While the Red Sox are clearly scuffling in this time frame, incredibly dropping 6.5 games to New York in the standings in less than two weeks, I'm not convinced that Rays are going to be able to make a run at them to close the current five-game loss-column gap.
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Which, in a roundabout way, brings me back to Boston. Although the denizens of the Fens are feeling their customary melancholia when things aren't going well, I still think they don't have much to sweat here. Maybe it's my pro-Boston bias (and by pro-Boston, I'm referring to my belief that they're still the best short series team in the sport, not pro-Boston in a pom-pom sort of way - just want to be clear on that one), but I still think they're going to win the East. Tampa's dropped the ball here, quickly turning my effusiveness about a three-team race into meaningless and premature babble. And even taking my optimistic hope to the furthest limits, I can't picture a world in which the Texas Rangers are pushing the Sox for a playoff spot in the rough waters of the stretch run of the season, i.e. mid to late September.
We'll see if the Sox play to my expectations. Right now they look as vulnerable as they have in several seasons. Both for reasons of their own doing (sticking with Penny too long (?), an over-reliance on the return of John Smoltz) and by bad fortune (Dice-K; Wakefield's injury), their starting rotation is out-of-whack.
The quick fix lies on the horizon. Or more specifically over the Canadian border. I think the tides have turned in favor of a Boston-Toronto trade, and I will be mildly surprised if the Sox don't have Halladay in their rotation by the weekend. And once that happens, the Red Sox will have made their path to the World Series very clear & distinct, and the prospect of failure (especially at the hands of the Yankees) that much more unacceptable.
