Saturday, September 05, 2009
Saturday Morning Snapshot
History's Horizons
I've watched very little baseball this week. The Yankees have been on autopilot for two weeks now, maintaining October Mode better than they have at any time in the last decade. Overall, it's shaping up to be a ho-hum September.
The races in baseball's two eastern divisions are over. The N.L. Central is cooked with the Cards now up 11.5 on the Cubs, and the A.L. Central is on the verge of being locked up with Detroit now six up after last night.
The Dodgers are maintaining a comfortable cushion, while the Angels are doing enough to keep breathing space between themselves and the plucky Rangers.
All that remains are the two Wild Card races to whet our appetite before the October tournament begins. It looks like the Giants & Rockies are going to have great race to the last week of the season. Unfortunately, the teams have only one series left with each other: September 14-16, at San Francisco.
My words from Thursday, July 30:
Minor miracle or not, the Rangers are now two behind the Red Sox for the American League's last post-season ticket. No other team is even in the mix.
On the morning of August 1, Boston had a 2.5 game advantage on Texas. Since that day the Sox have gone 17-14, while the Rangers have gone 18-14. In a difficult stretch that I figured would knock them out for good, Texas has stood toe-to-toe with the beast from the east.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Over the last 30 days, as their records were suggest, Texas & Boston have played almost dead-even baseball, offensively. Boston's scored 158 runs. Texas: 148. Boston's hitting at a .270/.351/.483 clip. Texas: .283/.345/.468.
Boston has hit seven more homers in that time span, 13 more doubles.
Where the two teams' paths have diverged is on the mound. In the last 30 days, Texas has allowed 117 runs, 2nd fewest in the A.L. to the Yankees' 116. Boston has allowed 150 in that same time period, better than only Toronto and Baltimore.
The Red Sox rotation now has a perch for Paul Byrd, called off his couch like Vinny Testeverde used to be. And it's never good when a roster move is analogous to picking up ol' man Vinny. The venerable and heretofore reliable Tim Wakefield is trying to trick Father Time just like he tricks American League batters with his unpredictable knuckleballs. Wakefield gets the ball today in Chicago, but it's been revealed that his back troubles this year ain't the kind that a few Advil are going to make go away. According to MLB.com, there is a loose fragment in his back will have to be surgically removed during the offseason, and officially he's on a start-to-start basis. "He might not be able to take the ball every five days or six," manager Terry Francona said. "But we'll just kind of see how he does."
If he can get out to the mound, good things can still happen for Wake; see his last start on August 26, the only appearance between July 8 and today, for proof of that: 7/6/1/1/1/3. But the Sox need him to take the ball every fifth day now from here to the first weekend in October. The alternative is throwing the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time rookie, Junichi Tazawa back into the rotation.
Boston's seemingly well-crafted plans for their starting rotation have crumbled into flawed blueprints at this point. They're now holding their five-man together with chicken wire, spit and chewing gum.
Of course, the Sox bullpen remains a strong suit. I can't find a site that allows to do a double-split (relievers numbers over the last 30 days, for example), but as far as season-to-date, Boston's pen ranks 1st in ERA (3.57); 5th in BAA; 4th in K/BB; 3rd in K/9; they rank a modest 7th in bullpen WHIP.
So some of the underlying numbers aren't eye-popping, but the overall body of work is still pretty darn good.
In the meantime, Texas made it through the hornet's nest portion of their schedule in August relatively unscathed and now enjoy a stretch where they are playing the Orioles, Indians, Mariners and A's from now until September 16. They have seven games still to play against the Angels, so the division title is still up for grabs to a certain extent. But even if they're relegated just to the Wild Card hunt, the Rangers have to be considered worthy challengers now.
In the same stretch, the Sox will be going against the White Sox, O's, Tampa & the Angels. This is the Rangers' chance to make a definitive move at Boston, as after September 17, the Sox play at Baltimore (their second home); at Kansas City (for four!); at New York (games the Sox will need, and the Yanks' will be sleep-walking); and two carcasses at home in Toronto & Cleveland to wrap things up.
If I stretch my imagination out to its furthest perimeter, I still can't envision the Sox not making it to October Baseball. Things will have to seriously malfunction: a sweep in Chicago; a split in Kansas City; a series loss to a Toronto or a Baltimore. By Boston taking two out of three in Tampa this week, essentially knocking the Rays dead for the winter in the process, they showed me there's still enough in the tank to shuffle through this starting pitching wasteland, gut things out and start anew in the first week of October. It would be shocking if they weren't around to see it.
There's been a lot chatter lately about this Yankee team being the best Bomber outfit since the late 90's. And indeed, over the last month New York has scored the most runs in the American League and allowed the fewest. Something the '98 team did over a full season by a wide margin.
Gammons said yesterday that their pitching is in the best shape it has been in since "the late 90's." Pete Abraham shared some revealing trends & figures that suggest this team is setting up some fancy historical footnotes, that can only be validated by a successful post-season. When the Yankees were establishing a dynasty a decade ago, they played the Rangers in three out of four opening rounds: '96, '98, '99. The fortunes of that first series turned on a late-inning rally and subsequent defensive misplay in Game 2, with the Yankees down 0-1 in the series and on the verge of a quiet exit. (How different would history look if that had happened?) The other series were two of the cleanest white-washes in the history of the post-season.
It would be a surprising coincidence if the Yankees, in a season that is beginning to summon up only recently departed ghosts, play Texas in the 1st round once again.
History's Horizons
I've watched very little baseball this week. The Yankees have been on autopilot for two weeks now, maintaining October Mode better than they have at any time in the last decade. Overall, it's shaping up to be a ho-hum September.
The races in baseball's two eastern divisions are over. The N.L. Central is cooked with the Cards now up 11.5 on the Cubs, and the A.L. Central is on the verge of being locked up with Detroit now six up after last night.
The Dodgers are maintaining a comfortable cushion, while the Angels are doing enough to keep breathing space between themselves and the plucky Rangers.
All that remains are the two Wild Card races to whet our appetite before the October tournament begins. It looks like the Giants & Rockies are going to have great race to the last week of the season. Unfortunately, the teams have only one series left with each other: September 14-16, at San Francisco.
My words from Thursday, July 30:
It is interesting, however, that Boston's Wild Card lead is tenuous at the current moment: a one game lead on Texas, who has been playing well of late. The Rangers are enjoying a fine July, a month that includes a 3-1 mark vs. Anaheim; sweeps over Boston & Tampa; and a series win against the Tigers. For the most part they've kept pace with the surging Angels (a manageable 3.5 back), and are clearly in the Wild Card mix as we approach the first of August.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
If I were them, I'd enjoy the moment because I'm not convinced it's going to last. Their next month is brutal. Their home/road split is 10 in Arlington, 19 on the road. All but one of the home games are versus teams with winning records (including three vs. Boston) and although they get to play in some disinterested ballparks such as Oakland & Cleveland, they also have to make trips to Tampa, New York and Minnesota.
If the Rangers are sitting a game or two out in the Wild Card a month from now, it will be something of a minor miracle.
Minor miracle or not, the Rangers are now two behind the Red Sox for the American League's last post-season ticket. No other team is even in the mix.
On the morning of August 1, Boston had a 2.5 game advantage on Texas. Since that day the Sox have gone 17-14, while the Rangers have gone 18-14. In a difficult stretch that I figured would knock them out for good, Texas has stood toe-to-toe with the beast from the east.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Over the last 30 days, as their records were suggest, Texas & Boston have played almost dead-even baseball, offensively. Boston's scored 158 runs. Texas: 148. Boston's hitting at a .270/.351/.483 clip. Texas: .283/.345/.468.
Boston has hit seven more homers in that time span, 13 more doubles.
Where the two teams' paths have diverged is on the mound. In the last 30 days, Texas has allowed 117 runs, 2nd fewest in the A.L. to the Yankees' 116. Boston has allowed 150 in that same time period, better than only Toronto and Baltimore.
The Red Sox rotation now has a perch for Paul Byrd, called off his couch like Vinny Testeverde used to be. And it's never good when a roster move is analogous to picking up ol' man Vinny. The venerable and heretofore reliable Tim Wakefield is trying to trick Father Time just like he tricks American League batters with his unpredictable knuckleballs. Wakefield gets the ball today in Chicago, but it's been revealed that his back troubles this year ain't the kind that a few Advil are going to make go away. According to MLB.com, there is a loose fragment in his back will have to be surgically removed during the offseason, and officially he's on a start-to-start basis. "He might not be able to take the ball every five days or six," manager Terry Francona said. "But we'll just kind of see how he does."
If he can get out to the mound, good things can still happen for Wake; see his last start on August 26, the only appearance between July 8 and today, for proof of that: 7/6/1/1/1/3. But the Sox need him to take the ball every fifth day now from here to the first weekend in October. The alternative is throwing the not-quite-ready-for-prime-time rookie, Junichi Tazawa back into the rotation.
Boston's seemingly well-crafted plans for their starting rotation have crumbled into flawed blueprints at this point. They're now holding their five-man together with chicken wire, spit and chewing gum.
Of course, the Sox bullpen remains a strong suit. I can't find a site that allows to do a double-split (relievers numbers over the last 30 days, for example), but as far as season-to-date, Boston's pen ranks 1st in ERA (3.57); 5th in BAA; 4th in K/BB; 3rd in K/9; they rank a modest 7th in bullpen WHIP.
So some of the underlying numbers aren't eye-popping, but the overall body of work is still pretty darn good.
In the meantime, Texas made it through the hornet's nest portion of their schedule in August relatively unscathed and now enjoy a stretch where they are playing the Orioles, Indians, Mariners and A's from now until September 16. They have seven games still to play against the Angels, so the division title is still up for grabs to a certain extent. But even if they're relegated just to the Wild Card hunt, the Rangers have to be considered worthy challengers now.
In the same stretch, the Sox will be going against the White Sox, O's, Tampa & the Angels. This is the Rangers' chance to make a definitive move at Boston, as after September 17, the Sox play at Baltimore (their second home); at Kansas City (for four!); at New York (games the Sox will need, and the Yanks' will be sleep-walking); and two carcasses at home in Toronto & Cleveland to wrap things up.
If I stretch my imagination out to its furthest perimeter, I still can't envision the Sox not making it to October Baseball. Things will have to seriously malfunction: a sweep in Chicago; a split in Kansas City; a series loss to a Toronto or a Baltimore. By Boston taking two out of three in Tampa this week, essentially knocking the Rays dead for the winter in the process, they showed me there's still enough in the tank to shuffle through this starting pitching wasteland, gut things out and start anew in the first week of October. It would be shocking if they weren't around to see it.
There's been a lot chatter lately about this Yankee team being the best Bomber outfit since the late 90's. And indeed, over the last month New York has scored the most runs in the American League and allowed the fewest. Something the '98 team did over a full season by a wide margin.
Gammons said yesterday that their pitching is in the best shape it has been in since "the late 90's." Pete Abraham shared some revealing trends & figures that suggest this team is setting up some fancy historical footnotes, that can only be validated by a successful post-season. When the Yankees were establishing a dynasty a decade ago, they played the Rangers in three out of four opening rounds: '96, '98, '99. The fortunes of that first series turned on a late-inning rally and subsequent defensive misplay in Game 2, with the Yankees down 0-1 in the series and on the verge of a quiet exit. (How different would history look if that had happened?) The other series were two of the cleanest white-washes in the history of the post-season.
It would be a surprising coincidence if the Yankees, in a season that is beginning to summon up only recently departed ghosts, play Texas in the 1st round once again.
