Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Breaking Up the Day-to-Day Routine
The Shaken Not Stirred Edition
The post-season begins three weeks from today, Wednesday, October 7. This September has been one of the worst in recent baseball history, with barely a race to be found. The Yankees dashed out to the best record in baseball by mid- to late-August, and have been able to maintain a healthy lead both for the division and homefield throughout the playoffs. It's been a snooze-fest, as it's mostly been a month of housekeeping: keeping players healthy; giving regulars consistent time off; and at the same time maintaining some semblance of a competitive edge. This has been the case for New York and St. Louis, and to a lesser extent Anaheim, Philadelphia and Los Angeles.
The Yankees in particular have done an admirable job, going 10-5 through the first half of this month, beating up mostly on the bottom-feeders of their own division, including the comatose Rays who simply ran out of steam after a great year-and-a-half run
Which brings me to yesterday's fracas in the Bronx, which got a lot of attention both on national radio this morning, and on WFAN this afternoon. My initial impression was that last night's on-field brawl reeked of being borne out of boredom, more than any real brooding rivalry with the Jays or a vendetta against a junkball-throwing lefty. Toronto has probably been ready for this season to end for two months now, are sick of looking at the Yankees, and the Yankees (really Jorge Posada) had no problem obliging as I'm sure the day-to-day routine has grown monotonous; they've been waiting for the post-season to start for weeks now. Throwing a little spark into an otherwise meaningless night is not the worst thing in the world for a team that's been playing warm-up games for the better part of a month now.
I heard reels and reels of admonishment directed at Posada for "being dumb" and for putting the season at risk; his own manager in fact stated his disapproval of the turn of events. And all that is fine & well, but as far as I know no one did get hurt, and I don't think there is going to be any long-term damage from the fight. I'm not saying I condone Posada's actions; he clearly lost his head and perspective of the situation. But sometimes it's not the worse thing to have teams riled up and woken up and shaken up a bit, especially in the midst of tedium. Even if it's not for a particularly smart reason.
This installment of the Yankees has handled October Mode better than any other outfit since the 1998 juggernaut that never let the peddle off the metal and rolled to 114 wins in the regular season. Like that Yankees team, this once really hasn't let down on the throttle, despite subtle signs of fatigue and some lethargy in the past five games (2-3). How this will translate into October is anyone's guess, although some will at least try and make an educated one.
Last week in the esteemed Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman ranked the fortunes of all the probable post-season combatants by what the Baseball Prospectus guys have dubbed the "Secret Sauce." Although predicting post-season series outcomes can be bit of a fool's game, there are three key areas that correlate to post-season wins better than others. They are:
1. A power pitching staff, as measured by strikeout rate.
2. A good closer.
3. A good defense.
Nate Silver first wrote about this in 2006 at Baseball Prospectus, before he moved on to bigger things like predicting presidential elections:
Back to Goldman's round-up, here is how the likely post-season entrants rank in this three-ring measurement in MLB:
20 - Philadelphia Phillies
11 - Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim
10 - St. Louis Cardinals
06 - Colorado Rockies
05 - Detroit Tigers
04 - Boston Red Sox
02 - Los Angeles Dodgers
01 - New York Yankees
Some random thoughts on this list:
1. There is nothing easy about the Yankees 1st round ALDS match-up with the Tigers, which is something I've been alluding to on & off throughout the summer. And that's because of Detroit's starters (namely their ace) and their wily, old manager. Would anyone be surprised if Justin Verlander outduels C.C. Sabathia in a 3-2 ballgame in Game 1? Of course not. And that would lead to a season-on-the-line Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for 2009's best team, which deserves more attention. I'll try and do that tomorrow.
2. So much of the post-season's final outcome lies in the hands of match-ups. While the Phillies don't rank well in the numbers that correlate the best with post-season success, would anyone rank them as the team least likely to win it all? No way, man. I'd put them ahead of the Angels (who are going to have get through Boston & most likely NY); the Tigers (ditto); the Rockies; and at the very least on equal footing with the two other N.L. teams.
3. I still think the two best teams in baseball are Boston & New York, and they're well represented in the Top 3. And the Dodgers, despite their mid-summer malaise have been the best team in the N.L. virtually from wire-to-wire. The Phils, Cards & Dodgers are all bunched up as far as number of wins, but the Dodgers +154 run differential is tops in the bigs, ahead of New York (+148) and Boston (+126).
4. It would be ironic if this is the year the Angels finally get the better of the Red Sox in a big spot. Their 790 runs scored is second best in the sport, but they've allowed 688, which is good for only 8th in the American League. The pendulum swinging away from pitching & defense and more to offensive has made for smooth sailing in the regular season, but as the sauce suggests doesn't bode well for October.
As a sidenote, yes I'm well aware that the Sox have knocked 2.5 games off the Yankees lead in the blink of an eye. The 8-game loss-column lead six days ago has drifted down to 5, as Boston has made us all feel a little foolish for giving a moment's thought that Texas could challenge them for the Wild Card. I'll address this if & when that number hits 3, and only if that happens before next weekend's series in New York.
The Shaken Not Stirred Edition
The post-season begins three weeks from today, Wednesday, October 7. This September has been one of the worst in recent baseball history, with barely a race to be found. The Yankees dashed out to the best record in baseball by mid- to late-August, and have been able to maintain a healthy lead both for the division and homefield throughout the playoffs. It's been a snooze-fest, as it's mostly been a month of housekeeping: keeping players healthy; giving regulars consistent time off; and at the same time maintaining some semblance of a competitive edge. This has been the case for New York and St. Louis, and to a lesser extent Anaheim, Philadelphia and Los Angeles.
The Yankees in particular have done an admirable job, going 10-5 through the first half of this month, beating up mostly on the bottom-feeders of their own division, including the comatose Rays who simply ran out of steam after a great year-and-a-half run
Which brings me to yesterday's fracas in the Bronx, which got a lot of attention both on national radio this morning, and on WFAN this afternoon. My initial impression was that last night's on-field brawl reeked of being borne out of boredom, more than any real brooding rivalry with the Jays or a vendetta against a junkball-throwing lefty. Toronto has probably been ready for this season to end for two months now, are sick of looking at the Yankees, and the Yankees (really Jorge Posada) had no problem obliging as I'm sure the day-to-day routine has grown monotonous; they've been waiting for the post-season to start for weeks now. Throwing a little spark into an otherwise meaningless night is not the worst thing in the world for a team that's been playing warm-up games for the better part of a month now.
I heard reels and reels of admonishment directed at Posada for "being dumb" and for putting the season at risk; his own manager in fact stated his disapproval of the turn of events. And all that is fine & well, but as far as I know no one did get hurt, and I don't think there is going to be any long-term damage from the fight. I'm not saying I condone Posada's actions; he clearly lost his head and perspective of the situation. But sometimes it's not the worse thing to have teams riled up and woken up and shaken up a bit, especially in the midst of tedium. Even if it's not for a particularly smart reason.
This installment of the Yankees has handled October Mode better than any other outfit since the 1998 juggernaut that never let the peddle off the metal and rolled to 114 wins in the regular season. Like that Yankees team, this once really hasn't let down on the throttle, despite subtle signs of fatigue and some lethargy in the past five games (2-3). How this will translate into October is anyone's guess, although some will at least try and make an educated one.
Last week in the esteemed Pinstriped Bible, Steven Goldman ranked the fortunes of all the probable post-season combatants by what the Baseball Prospectus guys have dubbed the "Secret Sauce." Although predicting post-season series outcomes can be bit of a fool's game, there are three key areas that correlate to post-season wins better than others. They are:
1. A power pitching staff, as measured by strikeout rate.
2. A good closer.
3. A good defense.
Nate Silver first wrote about this in 2006 at Baseball Prospectus, before he moved on to bigger things like predicting presidential elections:
Of the dozens of team characteristics that we tested for statistical significance, in terms of their relationship with winning post-season games and series, these were the only three that mattered. Ending the year hot doesn’t make a whit of difference, for example, nor does having a veteran club, or a smallball offense.
More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then.
So the huge emphasis that the general populace (measured by stations like this one and shows like this one and when I'm talking with my buddies over a couple of cold ones) puts on pitching in the post-season is sound. What our experience and eyes and ears tell us is backed up the stats in this case.
More remarkably, all three of these characteristics relate to run prevention, rather than run scoring. That does not mean that offense is of no importance in the playoffs. But there is a lot of noise in the postseason record, and offense did not produce enough signal to emerge through it. The reasons are too complicated to get into here, but have to do with what happens when good offenses face good pitching. Pitching does have some tendency to dominate these match-ups, whether they occur in the regular season or in the playoffs. Because "plus pitching" versus "plus hitting" duels occur more frequently in the post-season, we tend to notice the effects more then.
So the huge emphasis that the general populace (measured by stations like this one and shows like this one and when I'm talking with my buddies over a couple of cold ones) puts on pitching in the post-season is sound. What our experience and eyes and ears tell us is backed up the stats in this case.
Back to Goldman's round-up, here is how the likely post-season entrants rank in this three-ring measurement in MLB:
20 - Philadelphia Phillies
11 - Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim
10 - St. Louis Cardinals
06 - Colorado Rockies
05 - Detroit Tigers
04 - Boston Red Sox
02 - Los Angeles Dodgers
01 - New York Yankees
Some random thoughts on this list:
1. There is nothing easy about the Yankees 1st round ALDS match-up with the Tigers, which is something I've been alluding to on & off throughout the summer. And that's because of Detroit's starters (namely their ace) and their wily, old manager. Would anyone be surprised if Justin Verlander outduels C.C. Sabathia in a 3-2 ballgame in Game 1? Of course not. And that would lead to a season-on-the-line Game 2 at Yankee Stadium for 2009's best team, which deserves more attention. I'll try and do that tomorrow.
2. So much of the post-season's final outcome lies in the hands of match-ups. While the Phillies don't rank well in the numbers that correlate the best with post-season success, would anyone rank them as the team least likely to win it all? No way, man. I'd put them ahead of the Angels (who are going to have get through Boston & most likely NY); the Tigers (ditto); the Rockies; and at the very least on equal footing with the two other N.L. teams.
3. I still think the two best teams in baseball are Boston & New York, and they're well represented in the Top 3. And the Dodgers, despite their mid-summer malaise have been the best team in the N.L. virtually from wire-to-wire. The Phils, Cards & Dodgers are all bunched up as far as number of wins, but the Dodgers +154 run differential is tops in the bigs, ahead of New York (+148) and Boston (+126).
4. It would be ironic if this is the year the Angels finally get the better of the Red Sox in a big spot. Their 790 runs scored is second best in the sport, but they've allowed 688, which is good for only 8th in the American League. The pendulum swinging away from pitching & defense and more to offensive has made for smooth sailing in the regular season, but as the sauce suggests doesn't bode well for October.
As a sidenote, yes I'm well aware that the Sox have knocked 2.5 games off the Yankees lead in the blink of an eye. The 8-game loss-column lead six days ago has drifted down to 5, as Boston has made us all feel a little foolish for giving a moment's thought that Texas could challenge them for the Wild Card. I'll address this if & when that number hits 3, and only if that happens before next weekend's series in New York.
