Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Into the Statistical Soup: A.L. East (Part 1 of 2)
June 12. That was the last time before the conclusion of last night's games in the majors that the Yankees didn't have at least a share of first place in the American League's eastern division.
Through 6/12:
40-22 Tampa Bay
39-23 New York
37-27 Boston
The Yankees played so well from June 13-July 29, that there was a sense that they had plopped down a flag on first place and by some baseball decree would remain there for the duration of the season.
In that span of about one-and-a-half months, the Yanks went 26-13, with the course of business as easy as in any team season in recent memory. After 100 games, they had the third best record in the history of the franchise, behind only two all-time teams: the 1998 juggernaut and the last great Mantle team of 1961.
However, over that same time, Tampa went 23-16, essentially staying step-for-step with the history chasers, and especially peaking as the month of August was approaching.
The Red Sox meanwhile, dealing the type of adversity usually reserved for Job, played at a level respectable enough to keep their season breathing: 21-17.
Through June 13th, the Yanks were first in the American League in runs per game at 5.63. Boston was second at 5.43. Tampa was third at 5.29.
Some of the important underlying numbers to runs scored, i.e. either good correlations to scoring runs or indicators of future performance, include OBP, OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and league contexts) and batting average with runners in scoring position.
Through June 13, AL ranks:
OBP
01. New York, .365
02. Boston, .352
T7. Tampa Bay and Texas, .339
OPS+
01. New York, +121
03. Boston, +114
05. Tampa Bay, +103
RISP/BA
01. New York, .278
T2. Boston and Minnesota, .276
T5. Kansas City and Tampa Bay, .274
While Tampa has drifted towards more of a good-but-not-great offense over the course of the season, Boston and New York in particular have been among the cream-of-the-crop offenses in the sport for the duration of the season.
Now to the pitching ledger. Looking at runs allowed per game, ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league contexts) and WHIP.
Through June 13 AL ranks:
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.75
03. New York, 4.00
10. Boston, 4.69
ERA+
01. Tampa Bay, +125
T3. Texas and New York, +108
08. Boston, +103
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.236
02. New York, 1.248
09. Boston, 1.366
In line with looking at the pitching statistics, it's worth looking at a couple of defensive metrics. Admittedly, I tread very lightly among some of these numbers, as there is constant debate about the best statistics to use for evaluating defensive play, how to apply those statistics and then how to analyze the results. I'll stick with two that I can consider basic barometers of defensive work on a team level and can be used alongside traditional numbers such as chances, putouts, errors and fielding percentage. 1. PADE: Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (BP), it's simply how well a defense turns batted balls into outs adjusted for park factors. 2. BAbip: batting average on balls in play.
Through June 13 A.L. Ranks:
PADE
02. Boston, 2.24
03. New York, 1.64
04. Tampa Bay, 1.60
*BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
02. New York, .280
04. Boston, .285
*Although there are different ways to use and look at BAbip, it can used to gauge a team's defense (the more batted balls in play that are turned into outs, means the more balls that are being run down and caught, means the better the defense). But it could also be indicative of having good pitchers that don't allow a lot of good swings, line drives, well-hit balls, etc. And these factors are not mutually exclusive: a good pitching staff and a good defense typically go hand-in-hand. It could be a gauge of luck.
One of the underrated aspects of this Yankees team has been their defensive play. They've ranked high among BP's defensive metrics nearly all season long. That's how you keep pace with the 1961 Yankees: you do everything well - hit, pitch and field the ball.
While the Yankees have been on cruise control since the speed bump of mid- to late-May, they still found themselves sitting one game out of first place entering today's action. They haven't totally shaken a game Boston team that despite fielding a bunch of vagabonds and no-names were only six back of the Bombers in the loss column with a four-game series slated for the upcoming weekend.
Another look at the stats I listed above through August 3, all American League rankings.
Runs Per Game
01. New York, 5.39
02. Boston, 5.18
03. Tampa Bay, 5.06
In the year of the pitcher, all three teams have cooled off their scoring pace since June 13, losing 0.24, 0.25, and 0.23 respectively.
OBP
02. New York, .350
03. Boston, .347
T4. Texas and Tampa Bay, .340
The Yankees have slid the most of the three teams, as they've lost 15 points of OBP since 6/13. Tampa is virtually the same (.339 vs. 340) and Boston's only down five points.
OPS+
01. New York, +115
T2. Boston and Minnesota, +111
T6. Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, +100
In line with the shift in OBP, the Yanks have the biggest crash here (-6), while Boston (-3) and Tampa (-3) have seen smaller dips.
RISP/BA
5. Boston, .270
6. Tampa Bay, .267
7. New York, .266
There's been a considerable drop-off in this category by all three teams, but none more so than the Yankees, who've gone from 1st in the A.L. at .278 on June 13 to .266 and essentially league average.
Now for the defense.
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.80
06. New York, 4.16
09. Boston, 4.53
The Yankees pitching-and-defense is almost equally distant from Tampa as it is from the Red Sox; that's how much Tampa has separated their run prevention from New York. They have maintained their league-best R/G rate losing adding only 0.05 since 6/13, while the Yanks have jumped 0.16. The Sox have improved.
ERA+
01. Tampa, +119
06. Boston, +106
07. New York, +103
The Yanks have fallen from tied for third to 7th in the league.
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.224
03. New York, 1.286
09. Boston, 1.341
Tampa and Boston have lowered their WHIPs since 6/13; the Yanks' number has gone up.
PADE
02. Tampa Bay, 1.72
03. Boston, 1.66
04. New York, 1.33
Tampa's improved their number, their division mates have slid.
BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
04. New York, .285
06. Boston, .288
(Part 0f 2 and some general conclusions to follow)
June 12. That was the last time before the conclusion of last night's games in the majors that the Yankees didn't have at least a share of first place in the American League's eastern division.
Through 6/12:
40-22 Tampa Bay
39-23 New York
37-27 Boston
The Yankees played so well from June 13-July 29, that there was a sense that they had plopped down a flag on first place and by some baseball decree would remain there for the duration of the season.
In that span of about one-and-a-half months, the Yanks went 26-13, with the course of business as easy as in any team season in recent memory. After 100 games, they had the third best record in the history of the franchise, behind only two all-time teams: the 1998 juggernaut and the last great Mantle team of 1961.
However, over that same time, Tampa went 23-16, essentially staying step-for-step with the history chasers, and especially peaking as the month of August was approaching.
The Red Sox meanwhile, dealing the type of adversity usually reserved for Job, played at a level respectable enough to keep their season breathing: 21-17.
Through June 13th, the Yanks were first in the American League in runs per game at 5.63. Boston was second at 5.43. Tampa was third at 5.29.
Some of the important underlying numbers to runs scored, i.e. either good correlations to scoring runs or indicators of future performance, include OBP, OPS+ (on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and league contexts) and batting average with runners in scoring position.
Through June 13, AL ranks:
OBP
01. New York, .365
02. Boston, .352
T7. Tampa Bay and Texas, .339
OPS+
01. New York, +121
03. Boston, +114
05. Tampa Bay, +103
RISP/BA
01. New York, .278
T2. Boston and Minnesota, .276
T5. Kansas City and Tampa Bay, .274
While Tampa has drifted towards more of a good-but-not-great offense over the course of the season, Boston and New York in particular have been among the cream-of-the-crop offenses in the sport for the duration of the season.
Now to the pitching ledger. Looking at runs allowed per game, ERA+ (ERA adjusted for park and league contexts) and WHIP.
Through June 13 AL ranks:
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.75
03. New York, 4.00
10. Boston, 4.69
ERA+
01. Tampa Bay, +125
T3. Texas and New York, +108
08. Boston, +103
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.236
02. New York, 1.248
09. Boston, 1.366
In line with looking at the pitching statistics, it's worth looking at a couple of defensive metrics. Admittedly, I tread very lightly among some of these numbers, as there is constant debate about the best statistics to use for evaluating defensive play, how to apply those statistics and then how to analyze the results. I'll stick with two that I can consider basic barometers of defensive work on a team level and can be used alongside traditional numbers such as chances, putouts, errors and fielding percentage. 1. PADE: Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. A metric courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (BP), it's simply how well a defense turns batted balls into outs adjusted for park factors. 2. BAbip: batting average on balls in play.
Through June 13 A.L. Ranks:
PADE
02. Boston, 2.24
03. New York, 1.64
04. Tampa Bay, 1.60
*BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
02. New York, .280
04. Boston, .285
*Although there are different ways to use and look at BAbip, it can used to gauge a team's defense (the more batted balls in play that are turned into outs, means the more balls that are being run down and caught, means the better the defense). But it could also be indicative of having good pitchers that don't allow a lot of good swings, line drives, well-hit balls, etc. And these factors are not mutually exclusive: a good pitching staff and a good defense typically go hand-in-hand. It could be a gauge of luck.
One of the underrated aspects of this Yankees team has been their defensive play. They've ranked high among BP's defensive metrics nearly all season long. That's how you keep pace with the 1961 Yankees: you do everything well - hit, pitch and field the ball.
While the Yankees have been on cruise control since the speed bump of mid- to late-May, they still found themselves sitting one game out of first place entering today's action. They haven't totally shaken a game Boston team that despite fielding a bunch of vagabonds and no-names were only six back of the Bombers in the loss column with a four-game series slated for the upcoming weekend.
Another look at the stats I listed above through August 3, all American League rankings.
Runs Per Game
01. New York, 5.39
02. Boston, 5.18
03. Tampa Bay, 5.06
In the year of the pitcher, all three teams have cooled off their scoring pace since June 13, losing 0.24, 0.25, and 0.23 respectively.
OBP
02. New York, .350
03. Boston, .347
T4. Texas and Tampa Bay, .340
The Yankees have slid the most of the three teams, as they've lost 15 points of OBP since 6/13. Tampa is virtually the same (.339 vs. 340) and Boston's only down five points.
OPS+
01. New York, +115
T2. Boston and Minnesota, +111
T6. Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, +100
In line with the shift in OBP, the Yanks have the biggest crash here (-6), while Boston (-3) and Tampa (-3) have seen smaller dips.
RISP/BA
5. Boston, .270
6. Tampa Bay, .267
7. New York, .266
There's been a considerable drop-off in this category by all three teams, but none more so than the Yankees, who've gone from 1st in the A.L. at .278 on June 13 to .266 and essentially league average.
Now for the defense.
Runs-per-game
01. Tampa Bay, 3.80
06. New York, 4.16
09. Boston, 4.53
The Yankees pitching-and-defense is almost equally distant from Tampa as it is from the Red Sox; that's how much Tampa has separated their run prevention from New York. They have maintained their league-best R/G rate losing adding only 0.05 since 6/13, while the Yanks have jumped 0.16. The Sox have improved.
ERA+
01. Tampa, +119
06. Boston, +106
07. New York, +103
The Yanks have fallen from tied for third to 7th in the league.
WHIP
01. Tampa Bay, 1.224
03. New York, 1.286
09. Boston, 1.341
Tampa and Boston have lowered their WHIPs since 6/13; the Yanks' number has gone up.
PADE
02. Tampa Bay, 1.72
03. Boston, 1.66
04. New York, 1.33
Tampa's improved their number, their division mates have slid.
BAbip
01. Tampa Bay, .275
04. New York, .285
06. Boston, .288
(Part 0f 2 and some general conclusions to follow)
