Wednesday, May 14, 2003
Promising Season at ¼ Pole
This week, teams will be playing their 40th game of the season, meaning that essentially a quarter of their schedules are behind them. A good time to take stock of how the season is taking shape, and also a general enough topic to help me ease my way back into writing on this thing. Thanks to Torse, in particular, for egging me on to get back to baseball writing.
Baseball fans, especially those of us who follow so-called “big-market” teams, have become conditioned to try and convince ourselves that the disparity in team payrolls has not had an adverse effect on the game. The reality, of course, is that the economics of the sport have been eroding the competitive balance of the sport since the mid-1990s. The difference between the really good teams and the really bad teams has been increasing exponentially it seems, especially since the 1998 expansion. It’s not a coincidence that we’ve seen both historically great (’98 Yankees, ’01 Mariners) and historically terrible performances (Devil Rays, ‘02-’03 Tigers).
With that being said, there has been enough recent success by teams not considered part of baseball’s elite class (Oakland, Anaheim, Minnesota) and enough flops by big payroll teams (Texas, L.A., the Mets) to prove baseball’s outcomes aren’t dictated solely by payroll. In fact the National League, despite the continued dominance of the high-payroll Braves in the East (which is equally due to Atlanta’s phenomenal management, and the fact that the other franchises in the division have been terribly run), has remained very competitive since the mid-1990s with different World Series representatives every year since 1997.
The three-division format and added Wild Card have also been essential in off-setting the increasing role that payroll rankings have played in baseball.
It is this backdrop that is making the Royals’ current run at the top of the AL Central so intriguing and fun. Who would’ve thought that Royals/Twins in mid-May would be the most interesting series of the season to date? If I had the dish, you know I’d be tuning into at least a couple of innings from the Metrodome this week.
The Royals/Twins race is just one of the great races that are taking shape in each of baseball’s divisions. If things stay the course, and in truth they probably won’t, the competition for the eight playoff spots could be as tight since the Wild Card was instituted in 1995.
*All stats in this section are through Monday’s games.
AL East
A two-team race, which is what we all expected. Considering that in the first month of the season all of our attention was focused on the fact that the Yankees got off to their best start ever, and we looked at Boston’s bullpen with a scene-of-an-accident fascination, it was easy to overlook the fact that the Sox were hanging in there. They never let NY get out to too large a lead, and stand two games out entering today’s games. Over the last four seasons, the rivalry has been renewed with Fisk-and-Pinella type nastiness and vigor, and this year it will be at a fever-pitch again. They’ve been the two best offenses in baseball to date, so expect some explosive back-and-forth games coming up over the next few weeks between the two. The Yanks still have the edge, because of their pitching (3.63 ERA through Monday to Boston’s 4.97), but expect the Sox to stick with them longer than they have the last two years, which means at least past August.
AL Central
Home to the two worst teams in baseball, which means there’s plenty for the Royals, Twins and ChiSox to beat up on. It also might be the main reason Kansas City sticks in this thing well into the summer. I still like the Twins to win this one pretty easily, but I’m rooting like hell for KC. Statistically, to this point, the Twins and Royals have been almost identical:
KC: . 275 avg., .787 OPS, 114 BB, 44 HR, 184 runs
Minn.: .269, .752, 97 BB, 35 HR, 172 runs
It should be noted that the Twins have played a significant chunk of their 38 games (seven) against the Yankees, lost them all and were outscored badly. The Royals have yet to play New York.
KC: 4.21 ERA, 125 BB, 206 K
Minn.: 4.16, 103, 234
So to this point, they’ve played virtually the same level of ball with the Royals holding a three-game edge in the loss column entering today. While the Twins numbers are going to stay in the same range, and maybe even improve as the season progresses, expect the Royals’ pitching numbers to balloon as the season goes on. They have some great young arms, no question, but to put the weight of an entire season on their shoulders alone is a huge task. And don’t forget: this is a team that’s relying on Albie Lopez as a set-up man.
The dark horse is still the White Sox. They’re a much better offensive team then they’ve shown (they’re 24th in runs scored), and are only going to get better as the season goes on. I’m still not sold on their pitching. I mean, do you believe in Esteban Loaiza (7-1, 2.05 ERA after last night’s win vs. Baltimore)?. But the division is ideal for them to get back in the race, and they’re only two games under .500.
AL West
We all knew this was going to be a good race, it was just a matter of confirming that the Mariners would be fine under Melvin, and the Angels could duplicate their “Cinderella story, out of nowhere,” as Carl the greens' keeper might say. Oakland’s still real good, and Seattle has stuck with them with some great pitching of their own. I can’t say this is a three-team race at the moment, with the 18-19 Angels 5 ½ behind the 24-14 A’s and M’s. But Anaheim is still a good team, and should stick around at least into August. But this is clearly developing into a great two-team race.
Wild Card
Too early to really think about, but this could be a great one, leaving a legitimate World Series contender (Oakland, Seattle, New York or Boston) out of the playoffs. Despite the bad teams in the Central, it’s hard to imagine the Wild Card coming out of that division.
NL East
In the National League, things are really interesting. The emergence of the Phillies, which have been run as poorly as any team in the sport over the last decade, and the vagabond Expos, along with the Braves’ apparent vulnerability, is making this a great race in the East. And yes, I used “Braves” and “vulnerability” in the same sentence, despite the fact that Atlanta is playing .696 ball and has the best record in baseball. As Rob Neyer pointed out yesterday in his column, their run differential through 38 games is actually indicative of team whose record is 21-17, rather than the 26-12 it was before last night. Their offense has been playing a lot better than it did in 2002, but their pitching has floated to the middle of the pack (a 16th ranked 4.23 ERA). I picked the Braves in the pre-season, and I would pick them again now, but the Expos and Phils (if not the Mets and Marlins) will give them fits throughout the summer, and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of those teams beat them out.
NL Central
From the start of the season until now, it’s been the most exciting division in baseball. The fact that the Reds have been on a torrid stretch of late (7 of 8, five in a row against St. Louis) has only made things that much more interesting. The division is currently a four-team race with not more than 3 games separating the teams.
How close are the Cubs, Astros, Reds and Cards bunched together?
Runs Scored MLB ranks: St Louis 6th; Cubs 8th, Reds 10th, Astros 11th (tied with Philadelphia)
The pitching stats are a bit more skewed with the Cubs ranking 4th in ERA (3.49), the Reds ranking 29th at 5.75, and the Cards and Astros 10th and 15th respectively.
NL West
The only division that can’t really be considered a race right now. Before they stubbed their toe with their current four-game losing streak, the Giants hadn’t really let up since the start of the season. They still have a 6-game lead on the Dodgers, who are pitching well enough (baseball best 3.02 ERA) to re-emerge as a factor in the race, and a 7 ½ game lead on Arizona, who is actually bouncing back from a terrible start (15-10 since starting 3-11). But at this point, the Giants are cruising.
Wild Card
The race could involve at least six teams that are at .500 or better now. I’m not adventurous enough to throw teams like the Rockies, Diamondbacks and Florida into the mix, but it’s somewhat conceivable that at least one of those teams could make a run at it, with Arizona the most likely and Florida the least likely of these three.
Conclusion: Not a bad start for the 2003 baseball season. Three two-team races in the AL, and two of those could emerge into three-team races once the White Sox and Angels get involved. A legitimate three-team race in the NL East and a four-team race in the Central.
Quick Hits
Saw the best double-play I've seen this season so far on SportsCenter this morning. A nifty 5-3-5 turned by Sean Burroughs and Ryan Klesko of the Padres. Burroughs had to make a diving stop of a hard-hit ball, threw an absolute pea to first from his knees, and Klesko fired the ball back to third to get the runner coming from second. A great play.
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If Buck only had some pitching... The Rangers have four players among the top 7 in home runs in the American Leauge. They have three hitters among the top 9 in batting average. They're 6th in baseball in runs scored. On the flip side, their dead last in ERA at 5.90. Get this, they've given up 103 doubles. The next worst team has given up 83 (Toronto).
This week, teams will be playing their 40th game of the season, meaning that essentially a quarter of their schedules are behind them. A good time to take stock of how the season is taking shape, and also a general enough topic to help me ease my way back into writing on this thing. Thanks to Torse, in particular, for egging me on to get back to baseball writing.
Baseball fans, especially those of us who follow so-called “big-market” teams, have become conditioned to try and convince ourselves that the disparity in team payrolls has not had an adverse effect on the game. The reality, of course, is that the economics of the sport have been eroding the competitive balance of the sport since the mid-1990s. The difference between the really good teams and the really bad teams has been increasing exponentially it seems, especially since the 1998 expansion. It’s not a coincidence that we’ve seen both historically great (’98 Yankees, ’01 Mariners) and historically terrible performances (Devil Rays, ‘02-’03 Tigers).
With that being said, there has been enough recent success by teams not considered part of baseball’s elite class (Oakland, Anaheim, Minnesota) and enough flops by big payroll teams (Texas, L.A., the Mets) to prove baseball’s outcomes aren’t dictated solely by payroll. In fact the National League, despite the continued dominance of the high-payroll Braves in the East (which is equally due to Atlanta’s phenomenal management, and the fact that the other franchises in the division have been terribly run), has remained very competitive since the mid-1990s with different World Series representatives every year since 1997.
The three-division format and added Wild Card have also been essential in off-setting the increasing role that payroll rankings have played in baseball.
It is this backdrop that is making the Royals’ current run at the top of the AL Central so intriguing and fun. Who would’ve thought that Royals/Twins in mid-May would be the most interesting series of the season to date? If I had the dish, you know I’d be tuning into at least a couple of innings from the Metrodome this week.
The Royals/Twins race is just one of the great races that are taking shape in each of baseball’s divisions. If things stay the course, and in truth they probably won’t, the competition for the eight playoff spots could be as tight since the Wild Card was instituted in 1995.
*All stats in this section are through Monday’s games.
AL East
A two-team race, which is what we all expected. Considering that in the first month of the season all of our attention was focused on the fact that the Yankees got off to their best start ever, and we looked at Boston’s bullpen with a scene-of-an-accident fascination, it was easy to overlook the fact that the Sox were hanging in there. They never let NY get out to too large a lead, and stand two games out entering today’s games. Over the last four seasons, the rivalry has been renewed with Fisk-and-Pinella type nastiness and vigor, and this year it will be at a fever-pitch again. They’ve been the two best offenses in baseball to date, so expect some explosive back-and-forth games coming up over the next few weeks between the two. The Yanks still have the edge, because of their pitching (3.63 ERA through Monday to Boston’s 4.97), but expect the Sox to stick with them longer than they have the last two years, which means at least past August.
AL Central
Home to the two worst teams in baseball, which means there’s plenty for the Royals, Twins and ChiSox to beat up on. It also might be the main reason Kansas City sticks in this thing well into the summer. I still like the Twins to win this one pretty easily, but I’m rooting like hell for KC. Statistically, to this point, the Twins and Royals have been almost identical:
KC: . 275 avg., .787 OPS, 114 BB, 44 HR, 184 runs
Minn.: .269, .752, 97 BB, 35 HR, 172 runs
It should be noted that the Twins have played a significant chunk of their 38 games (seven) against the Yankees, lost them all and were outscored badly. The Royals have yet to play New York.
KC: 4.21 ERA, 125 BB, 206 K
Minn.: 4.16, 103, 234
So to this point, they’ve played virtually the same level of ball with the Royals holding a three-game edge in the loss column entering today. While the Twins numbers are going to stay in the same range, and maybe even improve as the season progresses, expect the Royals’ pitching numbers to balloon as the season goes on. They have some great young arms, no question, but to put the weight of an entire season on their shoulders alone is a huge task. And don’t forget: this is a team that’s relying on Albie Lopez as a set-up man.
The dark horse is still the White Sox. They’re a much better offensive team then they’ve shown (they’re 24th in runs scored), and are only going to get better as the season goes on. I’m still not sold on their pitching. I mean, do you believe in Esteban Loaiza (7-1, 2.05 ERA after last night’s win vs. Baltimore)?. But the division is ideal for them to get back in the race, and they’re only two games under .500.
AL West
We all knew this was going to be a good race, it was just a matter of confirming that the Mariners would be fine under Melvin, and the Angels could duplicate their “Cinderella story, out of nowhere,” as Carl the greens' keeper might say. Oakland’s still real good, and Seattle has stuck with them with some great pitching of their own. I can’t say this is a three-team race at the moment, with the 18-19 Angels 5 ½ behind the 24-14 A’s and M’s. But Anaheim is still a good team, and should stick around at least into August. But this is clearly developing into a great two-team race.
Wild Card
Too early to really think about, but this could be a great one, leaving a legitimate World Series contender (Oakland, Seattle, New York or Boston) out of the playoffs. Despite the bad teams in the Central, it’s hard to imagine the Wild Card coming out of that division.
NL East
In the National League, things are really interesting. The emergence of the Phillies, which have been run as poorly as any team in the sport over the last decade, and the vagabond Expos, along with the Braves’ apparent vulnerability, is making this a great race in the East. And yes, I used “Braves” and “vulnerability” in the same sentence, despite the fact that Atlanta is playing .696 ball and has the best record in baseball. As Rob Neyer pointed out yesterday in his column, their run differential through 38 games is actually indicative of team whose record is 21-17, rather than the 26-12 it was before last night. Their offense has been playing a lot better than it did in 2002, but their pitching has floated to the middle of the pack (a 16th ranked 4.23 ERA). I picked the Braves in the pre-season, and I would pick them again now, but the Expos and Phils (if not the Mets and Marlins) will give them fits throughout the summer, and I wouldn’t be shocked if one of those teams beat them out.
NL Central
From the start of the season until now, it’s been the most exciting division in baseball. The fact that the Reds have been on a torrid stretch of late (7 of 8, five in a row against St. Louis) has only made things that much more interesting. The division is currently a four-team race with not more than 3 games separating the teams.
How close are the Cubs, Astros, Reds and Cards bunched together?
Runs Scored MLB ranks: St Louis 6th; Cubs 8th, Reds 10th, Astros 11th (tied with Philadelphia)
The pitching stats are a bit more skewed with the Cubs ranking 4th in ERA (3.49), the Reds ranking 29th at 5.75, and the Cards and Astros 10th and 15th respectively.
NL West
The only division that can’t really be considered a race right now. Before they stubbed their toe with their current four-game losing streak, the Giants hadn’t really let up since the start of the season. They still have a 6-game lead on the Dodgers, who are pitching well enough (baseball best 3.02 ERA) to re-emerge as a factor in the race, and a 7 ½ game lead on Arizona, who is actually bouncing back from a terrible start (15-10 since starting 3-11). But at this point, the Giants are cruising.
Wild Card
The race could involve at least six teams that are at .500 or better now. I’m not adventurous enough to throw teams like the Rockies, Diamondbacks and Florida into the mix, but it’s somewhat conceivable that at least one of those teams could make a run at it, with Arizona the most likely and Florida the least likely of these three.
Conclusion: Not a bad start for the 2003 baseball season. Three two-team races in the AL, and two of those could emerge into three-team races once the White Sox and Angels get involved. A legitimate three-team race in the NL East and a four-team race in the Central.
Quick Hits
Saw the best double-play I've seen this season so far on SportsCenter this morning. A nifty 5-3-5 turned by Sean Burroughs and Ryan Klesko of the Padres. Burroughs had to make a diving stop of a hard-hit ball, threw an absolute pea to first from his knees, and Klesko fired the ball back to third to get the runner coming from second. A great play.
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If Buck only had some pitching... The Rangers have four players among the top 7 in home runs in the American Leauge. They have three hitters among the top 9 in batting average. They're 6th in baseball in runs scored. On the flip side, their dead last in ERA at 5.90. Get this, they've given up 103 doubles. The next worst team has given up 83 (Toronto).
