Thursday, May 15, 2003
Who's on First in New York?
Time to indulge in a little statistical comparison:
All statistics in this story are through Wednesday, May 14.
Player A: 84 AB, .310 AVG, .443 OBP, .571 SLG, 21 BB, 12 K
Player B: 64 AB, .203 AVG, .329 OBP, .266 SLG, 9 BB, 19 K
I'm sure you can guess which one is supposed to be one of the best offensive players in the sport. (Or else why would I be making a big deal of this...)
In case you haven't guessed it, these are the numbers of Nick Johnson (A) and Jason Giambi (B), who are splitting time at first base and DH for the Yankees. Specifically,
these are their numbers on the days they play first base. Here are their stats in total:
Johnson: 120 AB, .308 AVG, .455 OBP, .517 SLG, 33 BB, 22 K
Giambi: 139 AB, .209 AVG, .329 OBP, .388 SLG, 21 BB, 34 K
Johnson is currently enjoying a break-out year, and is the best 9th place hitter in baseball right now. He's sixth in the AL in OPS (on-base + slugging), right behind Alex Rodriguez.
Giambi, on the other hand, is 64th in the AL in OPS behind such offensive forces as Mark Ellis, David Eckstein and Jerry Hairston, Jr.
Giambi's slow start (which is making last year's .282, 834 OPS-April look golden) is made all the more of an eyesore when put up against the guy he's splitting time with equally at first base, and making about $7.75 million more than. To give him a kernel of a pass, it should be noted that he has recently been battling an eye infection in his left eye. Whether that has been lingering all season is anyone's guess, although the official word is that it's only been bothering him for 7-10 days.
I remember hearing last year from a caller on sports radio (I know, I know, not the best source of information...) that Giambi's numbers dropped off considerably when he DH'ed as opposed to when he played the field. I thought maybe this was a good place to start to try and explain his offensive numbers so far. I didn't have the exact DH/1B split in my head, but I knew he wasn't playing first base as much as he did last year. I went back and checked the pattern of the Giambi/Johnson first base platoon for the first 38 games of the season.
Giambi has played 16 games at first; 19 as the designated hitter. He's pinch hit in two games, and DNP May 10 and 11 because of the eye infection. As a general statement, Joe Torre has flopped his first basemen as if he's flipping a coin, hence the near 50/50 split between the two. The longest stretch Giambi played first at one time was a three-game run April 10-13. His longest consecutive stretch as a DH is still active: May 7-May 14 (5 games), which may be due to his eye as much as Nick Johnson's play.
Last year, as that caller alluded to last summer, Giambi was clearly a better hitting first baseman than a DH:
As 1B: 331 AB, .344 AVG, 1.135 OPS (.461 OBP + .674 SLG), 68 BB, 60 K
As DH: 229 AB, .271 AVG, .886 OPS (.397 + .489) 41 BB, 52 K
In his last two years in Oakland (2000 & 2001), he only played a limited time as a DH, with 85 and 57 AB respectively. Although he showed less production as a DH vs. first baseman in 2000, there was almost no drop-off in his time as a DH in '01. And there was certainly no indication that more time as a DH as a Yankee would be a cause for concern. Then again, he had never been anything other than an everyday first baseman before 2002. So we didn't really know how Giambi would perform in a semi-platoon, or regular platoon for that matter.
I wish explaining Giambi's start to this season was as easy as citing the increased rate of at-bats as a DH. While this may a piece of the puzzle, the statistics don't play out. The truth is, he has been a worse offensive player on days he plays the field.
As 1B: 64 AB, .203 AVG, .595 OPS (.329 OBP + .266 SLG), 9 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 7 RBI
As DH: 73 AB, .219 AVG, .844 OPS (.337 + .507) 12 BB, 14 K, 7 HR, 18 RBI
Neither line is anything to write home about, but he has been awful hitting as a first baseman so far. The SLG in particular is really hard to believe. Interestingly enough, his stats as a first baseman mirror his numbers at Yankee Stadium so far:
Home: 61 AB, .180 AVG, .552 OPS (.306 OBP + .246 SLG), 9 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 7 RBI
Road: 78 AB, .231 AVG, .848 OPS (.348 + .500) 11 BB, 19 K, 7 HR, 18 RBI
Unlike the discrepancy between his 1B numbers vs. DH numbers in '02, Giambi's home and road numbers last year were almost identical. So there aren't past trends to explain why his home numbers are so far off this year (as a sub-set of stats that are off as a whole to begin with).
Conclusion? At this point I don't have a definitive one, and am open to any suggestions. It's possible, if not likely, that the eye has been an issue all season. Maybe the fact that he's DH-ing more than playing first base for the first time in his career is making for a tough adjustment. I don't know.
I'm inclined to think a couple of things...
In 2001, Giambi's last year in Oakland, he walked 129 times and struck out 83 times. Considering he hit .342 with 38 HR along with that, that's an excellent ratio.
Last year, his walks dropped by 20, and his Ks went up by 19. His average dropped to .314, while his homers stayed steady at 41. To say that Giambi didn't have anything but a monster year last year would be unfair. His OPS was still over 1.000; he hit well over .300 with 40+ home runs. A great year. But, it wasn't a season like the historic ones he had the two previous years. It was, in fact, almost identical to his 1999 campaign: .315, .422 OBP, .553 SLG, 33 HR, 122 RBI, 105 BB, 106 K
This year, his BB:K ratio has taken a huge drop relative to last year, and especially relative to his last couple years in Oakland. I'm not blaming everything on his BB:K ratio, but it's indicative of 1) He's being pitched to differently now than he was two or three years ago; and 2) The results suggest this change in approach has benefitted the pitchers in the American League by a noticeable margin.
What I think is happening is that pitchers aren't pitching around him like they could, and did, when he was in Oakland. Because of the protection around him in the Yankee line-up (namely, Bernie Williams), pitchers have been forced to throw him more strikes. The surprising part, at least surprising to me, is that this strategy (i.e. the pitchers "going after him," challenging him with strikes) has hurt Giambi, not helped him.
It's surprising because conventional baseball wisdom says that good hitters are more successful in the middle of a good line-up because they get better pitches to hit. But strange things happen when situations are taken to extremes. In this case, an extremely good hitter was taken out of a line-up in which he could be very selective in, because he was constantly being pitched around, and put in a better line-up in which he has had to be pitched to.
This is only one case, but in this instance Jason Giambi has not benefitted from hitting in the middle of baseball's most productive line-up like I thought he would. I'm not suggesting Giambi's batting eye and career are going down the tubes. If last year was a return to his '99 form, maybe this year's numbers will be closer to his 1998 season: .295, .384 OBP, .489 SLG, 27 HR, 110 RBI. I actually think his final tally will be better than that, but ultimately not as good as last year. In fact, numbers like a .477 OBP, .660 SLG and a .342 batting average may be elements of Giambi's baseball past. Like last year, he isn't going to be putting up a .340, 50 HR campaign in 2003 -- the kind of season many envisioned for him, playing his home games at Yankee Stadium. At this point in 2003, he's just trying to get his average out of the low .200's, and adjusting to the fact that right now he's as much a DH as he is a first baseman.
Time to indulge in a little statistical comparison:
All statistics in this story are through Wednesday, May 14.
Player A: 84 AB, .310 AVG, .443 OBP, .571 SLG, 21 BB, 12 K
Player B: 64 AB, .203 AVG, .329 OBP, .266 SLG, 9 BB, 19 K
I'm sure you can guess which one is supposed to be one of the best offensive players in the sport. (Or else why would I be making a big deal of this...)
In case you haven't guessed it, these are the numbers of Nick Johnson (A) and Jason Giambi (B), who are splitting time at first base and DH for the Yankees. Specifically,
these are their numbers on the days they play first base. Here are their stats in total:
Johnson: 120 AB, .308 AVG, .455 OBP, .517 SLG, 33 BB, 22 K
Giambi: 139 AB, .209 AVG, .329 OBP, .388 SLG, 21 BB, 34 K
Johnson is currently enjoying a break-out year, and is the best 9th place hitter in baseball right now. He's sixth in the AL in OPS (on-base + slugging), right behind Alex Rodriguez.
Giambi, on the other hand, is 64th in the AL in OPS behind such offensive forces as Mark Ellis, David Eckstein and Jerry Hairston, Jr.
Giambi's slow start (which is making last year's .282, 834 OPS-April look golden) is made all the more of an eyesore when put up against the guy he's splitting time with equally at first base, and making about $7.75 million more than. To give him a kernel of a pass, it should be noted that he has recently been battling an eye infection in his left eye. Whether that has been lingering all season is anyone's guess, although the official word is that it's only been bothering him for 7-10 days.
I remember hearing last year from a caller on sports radio (I know, I know, not the best source of information...) that Giambi's numbers dropped off considerably when he DH'ed as opposed to when he played the field. I thought maybe this was a good place to start to try and explain his offensive numbers so far. I didn't have the exact DH/1B split in my head, but I knew he wasn't playing first base as much as he did last year. I went back and checked the pattern of the Giambi/Johnson first base platoon for the first 38 games of the season.
Giambi has played 16 games at first; 19 as the designated hitter. He's pinch hit in two games, and DNP May 10 and 11 because of the eye infection. As a general statement, Joe Torre has flopped his first basemen as if he's flipping a coin, hence the near 50/50 split between the two. The longest stretch Giambi played first at one time was a three-game run April 10-13. His longest consecutive stretch as a DH is still active: May 7-May 14 (5 games), which may be due to his eye as much as Nick Johnson's play.
Last year, as that caller alluded to last summer, Giambi was clearly a better hitting first baseman than a DH:
As 1B: 331 AB, .344 AVG, 1.135 OPS (.461 OBP + .674 SLG), 68 BB, 60 K
As DH: 229 AB, .271 AVG, .886 OPS (.397 + .489) 41 BB, 52 K
In his last two years in Oakland (2000 & 2001), he only played a limited time as a DH, with 85 and 57 AB respectively. Although he showed less production as a DH vs. first baseman in 2000, there was almost no drop-off in his time as a DH in '01. And there was certainly no indication that more time as a DH as a Yankee would be a cause for concern. Then again, he had never been anything other than an everyday first baseman before 2002. So we didn't really know how Giambi would perform in a semi-platoon, or regular platoon for that matter.
I wish explaining Giambi's start to this season was as easy as citing the increased rate of at-bats as a DH. While this may a piece of the puzzle, the statistics don't play out. The truth is, he has been a worse offensive player on days he plays the field.
As 1B: 64 AB, .203 AVG, .595 OPS (.329 OBP + .266 SLG), 9 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 7 RBI
As DH: 73 AB, .219 AVG, .844 OPS (.337 + .507) 12 BB, 14 K, 7 HR, 18 RBI
Neither line is anything to write home about, but he has been awful hitting as a first baseman so far. The SLG in particular is really hard to believe. Interestingly enough, his stats as a first baseman mirror his numbers at Yankee Stadium so far:
Home: 61 AB, .180 AVG, .552 OPS (.306 OBP + .246 SLG), 9 BB, 19 K, 1 HR, 7 RBI
Road: 78 AB, .231 AVG, .848 OPS (.348 + .500) 11 BB, 19 K, 7 HR, 18 RBI
Unlike the discrepancy between his 1B numbers vs. DH numbers in '02, Giambi's home and road numbers last year were almost identical. So there aren't past trends to explain why his home numbers are so far off this year (as a sub-set of stats that are off as a whole to begin with).
Conclusion? At this point I don't have a definitive one, and am open to any suggestions. It's possible, if not likely, that the eye has been an issue all season. Maybe the fact that he's DH-ing more than playing first base for the first time in his career is making for a tough adjustment. I don't know.
I'm inclined to think a couple of things...
In 2001, Giambi's last year in Oakland, he walked 129 times and struck out 83 times. Considering he hit .342 with 38 HR along with that, that's an excellent ratio.
Last year, his walks dropped by 20, and his Ks went up by 19. His average dropped to .314, while his homers stayed steady at 41. To say that Giambi didn't have anything but a monster year last year would be unfair. His OPS was still over 1.000; he hit well over .300 with 40+ home runs. A great year. But, it wasn't a season like the historic ones he had the two previous years. It was, in fact, almost identical to his 1999 campaign: .315, .422 OBP, .553 SLG, 33 HR, 122 RBI, 105 BB, 106 K
This year, his BB:K ratio has taken a huge drop relative to last year, and especially relative to his last couple years in Oakland. I'm not blaming everything on his BB:K ratio, but it's indicative of 1) He's being pitched to differently now than he was two or three years ago; and 2) The results suggest this change in approach has benefitted the pitchers in the American League by a noticeable margin.
What I think is happening is that pitchers aren't pitching around him like they could, and did, when he was in Oakland. Because of the protection around him in the Yankee line-up (namely, Bernie Williams), pitchers have been forced to throw him more strikes. The surprising part, at least surprising to me, is that this strategy (i.e. the pitchers "going after him," challenging him with strikes) has hurt Giambi, not helped him.
It's surprising because conventional baseball wisdom says that good hitters are more successful in the middle of a good line-up because they get better pitches to hit. But strange things happen when situations are taken to extremes. In this case, an extremely good hitter was taken out of a line-up in which he could be very selective in, because he was constantly being pitched around, and put in a better line-up in which he has had to be pitched to.
This is only one case, but in this instance Jason Giambi has not benefitted from hitting in the middle of baseball's most productive line-up like I thought he would. I'm not suggesting Giambi's batting eye and career are going down the tubes. If last year was a return to his '99 form, maybe this year's numbers will be closer to his 1998 season: .295, .384 OBP, .489 SLG, 27 HR, 110 RBI. I actually think his final tally will be better than that, but ultimately not as good as last year. In fact, numbers like a .477 OBP, .660 SLG and a .342 batting average may be elements of Giambi's baseball past. Like last year, he isn't going to be putting up a .340, 50 HR campaign in 2003 -- the kind of season many envisioned for him, playing his home games at Yankee Stadium. At this point in 2003, he's just trying to get his average out of the low .200's, and adjusting to the fact that right now he's as much a DH as he is a first baseman.
