Thursday, July 10, 2003
Nothing Specific
Yes, I can still write. And yes, I still care about baseball. But until 1) A hectic summer subsides a bit; and 2) I finally get an Internet connection running again at home, occassional scraps of my perspective on the baseball season will have to suffice. I think one friend in particular is getting tired of me writing in my e-mails, "I have to post to my site. I have to find time, blah blah blah."
I can't think of any one thing in particular to write about, something that's really gripped my attention of late, so I'll offer a hodge podge.
Now that the halfway point of the season is past, it's not a bad time to reassess some of the things that intrigued me during the first half, and what I'm most looking forward to in the second half.
I don't think I've written this here yet but, for what they're worth (not much), these were my preseason predictions:
AL East: New York
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Oakland
AL Wild Card: Boston
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: San Francisco
AL Champs: Twins
NL Champs: Cards
I picked the Twins to win it all, with the '87 Series in my mind.
Picking the World Series participants is usually a crapshoot, so while I didn't think Minnesota and St. Louis would be the best teams, I thought they were good bets to be in the post-season.
For validation that I have some idea of what I'm talking about, I've been keeping a relative close eye on the Twinkies. However, with the Royals' early success, it didn't take me long to jump on that bandwagon. Because even a .500 record for that team would have to be considered a mini-miracle.
The Twins' high-water mark was 11 games over, which they hit twice: May 28 and June 13. On the latter date, the Twins stood at 38-27, had a 7-4 record in June, and I thought they were gone. Their next 24 games from that point (up to last night) would be against the following: Arizona, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cleveland, ChiSox and Texas. All teams, that we think the Twins should be better than.
However, after June 13, they promptly lost five in a row (including 3 of 4 in Kansas City) and they haven't been the same since. Incredibly, the Twins have dipped under the .500 mark at 44-45 after losing last night in Texas. They've lost 8 of 9, and find themselves 4.5 games behind the Royals. Rob Neyer promised in Monday's column on the Royals' skewed run differential (they're in first place despite having allowed more runs than they've
scored) that he would write something on the Twins on Wednesday. It's been
posted, but I haven't seen it yet. I'm looking forward to reading it, because maybe it'll pick up something I've missed.
At this point, I can only state the obvious: Minnesota's been giving a sizable chunk of runs in this stretch, and have been on the wrong end of about half-a-dozen blowouts. They're playing pretty awful right now.
On June 14, the Royals dipped to .500 after a 7-4 loss to San Fran. They were scuffling around, and were four games back in the loss column and seemingly starting to fade. Since then, they're 16-8, and the idea of them sticking around till September doesn't seem out of the question. In fact, with the current Minnesota malaise, it seems downright probable.
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I'm starting to understand how professional writers can sometimes get a little defensive over their predictions, especially when they're not turning out well. Back in late May (May 29, I believe), I wrote a piece on the Phillies chances of catching the Braves. At that point they were 7 or 8 games out, and in danger of falling out of the race for good. But I had a suspicion that the Phils would get back in it and make a run at Atlanta, only to fall short.
At no point going into this year was I a big believer in Philadelphia, but in the early going I thought there were some statistics that were so out of whack that I figured Philly had to get closer to the Braves.
The big one was the run differential. Atlanta's offense was producing at a Coors Field-like rate, which compensated for the drop in their pitching. The ballyhooed Philly offense was struggling to hit .250, and it was their pitching ironically that was holding their season together. My reasoning was pretty basic: Atlanta's going to cool down. Philly's going to heat up. The gap is going to close.
So while I enjoyed this round of interleague play as much as any other year, I kept a close eye on the Phils-Braves during the month of June. A little thing called ego actually had me rooting for the Phillies. And for awhile, I felt a little foolish for buying into run differential and Pythogras as much as I had; there was very little movement upwards by the Phils for the first two weeks of June.
Entering play on June 19, the Phillies were 36-33, coming off a loss to the Braves the night before and playing the rubber game of a three-game set at the Vet. They were 10 games back, and desperately needed the series win, for momentum's sake if for nothing else.
That Thursday afternoon game has stuck in my head. I followed along the play-by-play at work thanks to the Game Update format on espn.com, and saw that Mike Hampton was putting the final nail in the Phillies coffin with a potential no-hitter. Hampton carried the gem into the 8th, but after 7 1/3, it was broken up by a Marlon Byrd single. The Phils not only scored two in the frame to tie it, but one off of the incredible Smoltz in the 9th to win it. Finally, the Phillies had taken a positive step in the 2003 season.
From that point it seemed the Phils could do no wrong. They went 9-1 for the rest of June, including that June 19th game. Their exploits included taking another two out of three with ease in Atlanta, and a wild win against Boston on the 21st, which eclipsed the Boston-St. Louis classic as my game of the year so far.
Entering July 2, they had won 7 in a row, and at 46-34 had closed the gap to 4 1/2. I was getting ready to toot my own horn a bit. "Maybe I do know something about this game after all."
But Atlanta's recent pillaging of the Expos and Mets, and the Phils recent mediocrity have a snapped me back to reality. In a week's time, the Braves, winners of six in a row, have rendered three weeks' worth of work by Philadelphia as meaningless. The lead is back up to 8.5, and the lead looks as solid as ever.
The Braves started a four-gamer at Wrigley this afternoon. Philadelphia starts a four-gamer against the hapless Mets tonight at Shea. Baseball is odd in that things change very quickly, seemingly every week. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Phils make up a couple of games in the standings this weekend. But it's becoming apparent to me that no matter what Pythagoras is saying about the '03 Braves and Phillies, Philadelphia is going to have a
tough time even getting a sniff of first the rest of the way.
For the record, the Pythagorean Standings show that the Phillies should be 53-35, and the Braves should be 51-38. That means that Braves are outperfoming their expected record by 7, and the Phils are under-performing by 4. In my relative short time of following this formula, I have never seen such a discrepency between the numbers on paper and the numbers in the newspaper.
---------
Speaking of teams that can't get over the hump, there was something deflating for the Nation not being able to take that series from the Yankees on the weekend. The Boston offense knocked the Yanks around so bad on the 4th and the 5th, a series win seemed inevitable. But, of course, there's no such thing as a Red Sox win against New York as being "inevitable," and the Yanks came back to take the back end of the series. For a couple of days though, the Sox were conjuring up visions of the great Boston offenses of the late 1940s and early 50s, and the juggernaut of the mid- to late-70s.
They still lead the world in every major hitting category (runs, hits, SLG, OBP), and that should carry them to the post-season. But it's hard to picture them making it as anything but a Wild Card at this point, especially with the Yankees back to full strength.
---------
I should write something about those Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of 18 of 21 and surprise challengers not only for a Wild Card, but for the division of all things. Just let me find out who these guys are first, before I say anything for the record...
I will offer this:
Shea Hillenbrand's numbers since joining Arizona: 68 ABs, .368 BA, .405 OBP (wonder if the Red Sox brass thinks he'll keep that number up...), .765 SLG, 6 HR, 18 RBI
For those who missed it, he had a pretty decent game Monday night against the Rockies at home. Hillenbrand became the sixth player in history to homer in three straight innings, drove in 7 runs, had 5 hits, scored four times and become the first player in 25 years to have extra-base hits in four consecutive innings. His 15 total bases in a game were a franchise record.
It's hard to compare a third baseman who's just starting to fit in to his new team to a closer-turned-starter-turned-something-turned-closer who's still getting a feel for his new environs, but here's Kim's number's for Boston:
13 G, 5 GS, 39.1 IP, 41 H, 3.66 ERA, 10 BB, 28 K, .259 Opp. BA, 3 saves.
He struck out the side in Toronto last night as the Sox had a nice comeback against the Jays, who are falling like a rock right now.
--------
Update: It's the Top of the 7th in Wrigley, and the Braves are still cruising along. They're up 6-3 behind Maddux, with home runs from Furcal (12) and Vinny Castilla (14).
--------
I would like to put something together using the Standard Deviation Scores that Neyer and Eddie Epstein used in their 2000 book Baseball Dynasties. The team I'd like to focus on: the Seattle Mariners, who must be compiling some solid 3-4 year scores. If I can find the time, and get the numbers into Excel, I'll present the results here.
-------
The Braves just tacked a run on in the 8th. The Phils are fallin' farther and farther away...
Yes, I can still write. And yes, I still care about baseball. But until 1) A hectic summer subsides a bit; and 2) I finally get an Internet connection running again at home, occassional scraps of my perspective on the baseball season will have to suffice. I think one friend in particular is getting tired of me writing in my e-mails, "I have to post to my site. I have to find time, blah blah blah."
I can't think of any one thing in particular to write about, something that's really gripped my attention of late, so I'll offer a hodge podge.
Now that the halfway point of the season is past, it's not a bad time to reassess some of the things that intrigued me during the first half, and what I'm most looking forward to in the second half.
I don't think I've written this here yet but, for what they're worth (not much), these were my preseason predictions:
AL East: New York
AL Central: Minnesota
AL West: Oakland
AL Wild Card: Boston
NL East: Atlanta
NL Central: St. Louis
NL West: Los Angeles
NL Wild Card: San Francisco
AL Champs: Twins
NL Champs: Cards
I picked the Twins to win it all, with the '87 Series in my mind.
Picking the World Series participants is usually a crapshoot, so while I didn't think Minnesota and St. Louis would be the best teams, I thought they were good bets to be in the post-season.
For validation that I have some idea of what I'm talking about, I've been keeping a relative close eye on the Twinkies. However, with the Royals' early success, it didn't take me long to jump on that bandwagon. Because even a .500 record for that team would have to be considered a mini-miracle.
The Twins' high-water mark was 11 games over, which they hit twice: May 28 and June 13. On the latter date, the Twins stood at 38-27, had a 7-4 record in June, and I thought they were gone. Their next 24 games from that point (up to last night) would be against the following: Arizona, Kansas City, Milwaukee, Cleveland, ChiSox and Texas. All teams, that we think the Twins should be better than.
However, after June 13, they promptly lost five in a row (including 3 of 4 in Kansas City) and they haven't been the same since. Incredibly, the Twins have dipped under the .500 mark at 44-45 after losing last night in Texas. They've lost 8 of 9, and find themselves 4.5 games behind the Royals. Rob Neyer promised in Monday's column on the Royals' skewed run differential (they're in first place despite having allowed more runs than they've
scored) that he would write something on the Twins on Wednesday. It's been
posted, but I haven't seen it yet. I'm looking forward to reading it, because maybe it'll pick up something I've missed.
At this point, I can only state the obvious: Minnesota's been giving a sizable chunk of runs in this stretch, and have been on the wrong end of about half-a-dozen blowouts. They're playing pretty awful right now.
On June 14, the Royals dipped to .500 after a 7-4 loss to San Fran. They were scuffling around, and were four games back in the loss column and seemingly starting to fade. Since then, they're 16-8, and the idea of them sticking around till September doesn't seem out of the question. In fact, with the current Minnesota malaise, it seems downright probable.
---------
I'm starting to understand how professional writers can sometimes get a little defensive over their predictions, especially when they're not turning out well. Back in late May (May 29, I believe), I wrote a piece on the Phillies chances of catching the Braves. At that point they were 7 or 8 games out, and in danger of falling out of the race for good. But I had a suspicion that the Phils would get back in it and make a run at Atlanta, only to fall short.
At no point going into this year was I a big believer in Philadelphia, but in the early going I thought there were some statistics that were so out of whack that I figured Philly had to get closer to the Braves.
The big one was the run differential. Atlanta's offense was producing at a Coors Field-like rate, which compensated for the drop in their pitching. The ballyhooed Philly offense was struggling to hit .250, and it was their pitching ironically that was holding their season together. My reasoning was pretty basic: Atlanta's going to cool down. Philly's going to heat up. The gap is going to close.
So while I enjoyed this round of interleague play as much as any other year, I kept a close eye on the Phils-Braves during the month of June. A little thing called ego actually had me rooting for the Phillies. And for awhile, I felt a little foolish for buying into run differential and Pythogras as much as I had; there was very little movement upwards by the Phils for the first two weeks of June.
Entering play on June 19, the Phillies were 36-33, coming off a loss to the Braves the night before and playing the rubber game of a three-game set at the Vet. They were 10 games back, and desperately needed the series win, for momentum's sake if for nothing else.
That Thursday afternoon game has stuck in my head. I followed along the play-by-play at work thanks to the Game Update format on espn.com, and saw that Mike Hampton was putting the final nail in the Phillies coffin with a potential no-hitter. Hampton carried the gem into the 8th, but after 7 1/3, it was broken up by a Marlon Byrd single. The Phils not only scored two in the frame to tie it, but one off of the incredible Smoltz in the 9th to win it. Finally, the Phillies had taken a positive step in the 2003 season.
From that point it seemed the Phils could do no wrong. They went 9-1 for the rest of June, including that June 19th game. Their exploits included taking another two out of three with ease in Atlanta, and a wild win against Boston on the 21st, which eclipsed the Boston-St. Louis classic as my game of the year so far.
Entering July 2, they had won 7 in a row, and at 46-34 had closed the gap to 4 1/2. I was getting ready to toot my own horn a bit. "Maybe I do know something about this game after all."
But Atlanta's recent pillaging of the Expos and Mets, and the Phils recent mediocrity have a snapped me back to reality. In a week's time, the Braves, winners of six in a row, have rendered three weeks' worth of work by Philadelphia as meaningless. The lead is back up to 8.5, and the lead looks as solid as ever.
The Braves started a four-gamer at Wrigley this afternoon. Philadelphia starts a four-gamer against the hapless Mets tonight at Shea. Baseball is odd in that things change very quickly, seemingly every week. And it wouldn't surprise me if the Phils make up a couple of games in the standings this weekend. But it's becoming apparent to me that no matter what Pythagoras is saying about the '03 Braves and Phillies, Philadelphia is going to have a
tough time even getting a sniff of first the rest of the way.
For the record, the Pythagorean Standings show that the Phillies should be 53-35, and the Braves should be 51-38. That means that Braves are outperfoming their expected record by 7, and the Phils are under-performing by 4. In my relative short time of following this formula, I have never seen such a discrepency between the numbers on paper and the numbers in the newspaper.
---------
Speaking of teams that can't get over the hump, there was something deflating for the Nation not being able to take that series from the Yankees on the weekend. The Boston offense knocked the Yanks around so bad on the 4th and the 5th, a series win seemed inevitable. But, of course, there's no such thing as a Red Sox win against New York as being "inevitable," and the Yanks came back to take the back end of the series. For a couple of days though, the Sox were conjuring up visions of the great Boston offenses of the late 1940s and early 50s, and the juggernaut of the mid- to late-70s.
They still lead the world in every major hitting category (runs, hits, SLG, OBP), and that should carry them to the post-season. But it's hard to picture them making it as anything but a Wild Card at this point, especially with the Yankees back to full strength.
---------
I should write something about those Arizona Diamondbacks, winners of 18 of 21 and surprise challengers not only for a Wild Card, but for the division of all things. Just let me find out who these guys are first, before I say anything for the record...
I will offer this:
Shea Hillenbrand's numbers since joining Arizona: 68 ABs, .368 BA, .405 OBP (wonder if the Red Sox brass thinks he'll keep that number up...), .765 SLG, 6 HR, 18 RBI
For those who missed it, he had a pretty decent game Monday night against the Rockies at home. Hillenbrand became the sixth player in history to homer in three straight innings, drove in 7 runs, had 5 hits, scored four times and become the first player in 25 years to have extra-base hits in four consecutive innings. His 15 total bases in a game were a franchise record.
It's hard to compare a third baseman who's just starting to fit in to his new team to a closer-turned-starter-turned-something-turned-closer who's still getting a feel for his new environs, but here's Kim's number's for Boston:
13 G, 5 GS, 39.1 IP, 41 H, 3.66 ERA, 10 BB, 28 K, .259 Opp. BA, 3 saves.
He struck out the side in Toronto last night as the Sox had a nice comeback against the Jays, who are falling like a rock right now.
--------
Update: It's the Top of the 7th in Wrigley, and the Braves are still cruising along. They're up 6-3 behind Maddux, with home runs from Furcal (12) and Vinny Castilla (14).
--------
I would like to put something together using the Standard Deviation Scores that Neyer and Eddie Epstein used in their 2000 book Baseball Dynasties. The team I'd like to focus on: the Seattle Mariners, who must be compiling some solid 3-4 year scores. If I can find the time, and get the numbers into Excel, I'll present the results here.
-------
The Braves just tacked a run on in the 8th. The Phils are fallin' farther and farther away...
