Tuesday, June 29, 2004
A Dose of Rivalries
*I'll be updating this post throughout the night, so scroll to the bottom of it for updates. Thanks.
If I was actually a participant in these baseball contests, instead of being an observer, I'd probably be sitting this one out. I have a crappy, cruddy summer cold having its way with my system. I actually left work early today, came home, had a sandwich and went to bed for about six hours. There's been only minimal improvement since then.
I don't know how deep into the night I'll make it, but this is too good a baseball night not to follow along.
"And just like that the Red Sox lead 1-0..." Michael Kay on the YES Network.
Johnny Damon just hit an absolute bomb into one of the lower rows in the upper deck in right.
This game is one of five "rivalry" match-ups that have mid-season playoff implications.
Boston @ New York
Houston @ Chicago
Chicago @ Minnesota
Anaheim @ Oakland
San Franciso @ Los Angeles
Another reason for a couple of my friends who are both liberal and Red Sox fans to hate the Yankees: Dick Cheney is at the Stadium tonight, and was hobnobbing with the team before the game. Apparently his presence has necessitated a boost in security, because a noticeable amount of fans are still filing into the park.
Derek Lowe's overall numbers aren't very good:
6-6, 5.24, 77.1 IP, 93 H, 35 BB, 39 K
However, he appears to be in the midst of turning his season around. I've caught a sizable portion of his recent starts, and he's been throwing much better. His pitches have had much more bite to them, and for Lowe that means better downward action. He's pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts, and his ERA has been going down as well.
6/11 vs. Dodgers: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K
6/17 at Colorado: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 3 K
6/23 vs. Minnesota: 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
While those four earned runs weren't anything to write home about, and he did get the loss, his seven K's were easily his season high.
The Red Sox defense continues to shine: E6 (bad, low throw to first) allows Yanks' lead-off man on in the first. Sox now have 63 errors (second worst in the AL).
UPDATE, 7:42
The Yanks have two runners on and no one out in the 2nd after consecutive singles by Matsui and Williams.
"As quickly as sinkerball pitchers can get into jams, they can just as quickly get out of it with that double play ball" - Jim Kaat on the YES Network.
As if he knew it was coming... Posada just grounded into a 6-4-3 DP.
Maybe it's because of the amount of Yankee propaganda that the rest of team's announcers spew, but Jim Kaat continues to rise in my estimation. I think he's always been a good analyst, but this season he's been excellent. Although he veers quite a bit into "In my day..."-territory, he definitely has an incredibly vast knowledge of the game, communicates well and isn't over-bearing in the booth. I heard a recent interview he did on New York radio, and it was one of the better baseball spots I've heard in awhile.
Base hit by Tony Clark ties the game at one. Looked like Lowe was going to wiggle out of that one...
After two, Yanks 1, Sox 1
UPDATE: 8:09
Seeing how the other half lives. I decided to switch over to NESN's feed to balance my broadcasting needs. Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy.
Thanks to MLB.TV, I'm starting to get a better feel for all the various local broadcasting teams throughout the country. One of the cool aspects about the set-up, imo...
My early impressions: I like the Giants' tandem of Duane Kiper and Mike Krukow a lot. Maybe he has to grow on you, but I'm not a big fan of Rex Hudler (Anaheim) at this point. I think the A's guys are pretty good. I can't say anything bad about Joe Buck (St. Louis). Vin Scully is Vin Scully.
I guess my point is that I think Orsillo/Remy might be the best local broadcast tandem in baseball. They've (especially Remy) gained a cult-status among the Boston faithfull that is rarely given to announcers. He has a catchy, fun nickname (The Rem Dog), and on any given night at Fenway Park it seems there are as many Jerry Remy banners as there are banners for the players. The only thing I can really compare it to (that I've experienced first-hand) is the kind of iconic adulation that was given to Phil Rizzuto as an announcer for the Yankees. Think of a toned down version of how the Cubs fans think of Harry Carey.
Although broadcasters become legendary in their own right (Harwell, Scully, Allen, Barber, Buck, Gowdy, Carey), it's rare that they veer off into the direction of pop-culture, becoming a bit larger than life. Remy's not quite there yet, but he's on that path. And, by the way, he is an excellent analyst.
Millar worked Vazquez to the point of 12 pitches in the AB, and then struck out on a breaking pitch (maybe a change?).
Good Lord... Damon just hit another freakin' bomb off Vazquez, this time deep into the righfield bleachers. About halfway back.
Yanks now have runners at the corners with no one out in the third. A Sheffield sac fly just knocked in Lofton. Game tied at two. Neither pitcher is doing much at this stage to keep these two potent offenses at bay.
Jeter just stole second. A good pitch to run on: breaking ball down in the dirt. 1-2 on A-Rod.
It just turned 8:00, which means a couple more of those rivalry games will be getting underway. I was debating which one I'm going to put on, either ChiSox-Twinkies or Cubbies-Astros... I think I'm going to go with the latter. Reasons: 1) The Metrodome. 2) I don't particularly like watching the White Sox 3) Pettitte's throwing for Houston tonight, and his presence (and success) in that rotation is vital for them to turn things around. 4) I think of the four teams involved in these two games, Houston is the one with the most on the line. They got swept by the Cubs in a four-gamer at home a couple of weeks ago, and they really need to start showing something. That makes the Cubs game a bit more compelling in my book.
Yanks just pulled off a rare (for them) double-steal. Jeter to third, A-Rod to second. They must have a good read on Lowe...
4-2 Yanks. Matsui just drilled a Lowe offering into right. Curveball on a 3-2 count. Looks like Lowe's run of success is getting knocked off track tonight.
UPDATE
NESN showed a shot of Dick Cheney sitting in a field box bookmarked by Guliani and Pataki. All three were wearing Yankee hats that looked like they'd just been taken out of the box. Without missing a beat, Jerry Remy declared, "NESN is proud to announce that John Kerry will carry Massachusetts."
Vazquez has six-pitch, 1-2-3 4th.
Astros have two on with two out in the top of the 1st. Kent's up. Glendon Rusch is pitching. Count now 3-2...
Base hit drives in Beltran, a little dunk shot to right.
After a 20 minute break or so, I'm back...
Tony Clark just hit a ball into the Black Bleachers at Yankee Stadium. He had actually done once before, with the Tigers in 1999. So that makes a total of 23 times it's been done (including post-season) by 18 different players since the Stadium was re-modeled in 1976.
The thing that struck me about the home run beside the distance, was how free and easy Clark's swing was.
I've heard a lot recently how the Yankees have done such-and-such a thing since April 25; same thing for the Red Sox.
YES just showed an interesting comparison box. Since that date the Yankees are +24 over .500. The Red Sox are +4.
The Yanks are scoring runs at a 6 per game clip; the Sox are at 5.7. Not much of a difference there.
The kicker, of course, is that Boston actually has a lower ERA than the Yankees since that time: 4.12 to 4.35.
I'm going to assume that this is showing how much Boston's defense has hurt the team, specifically in the unearned runs department.
But I'm also wondering about that mysterious little thing called "luck."
The Sox are still outperforming New York in the Pythagorean Standings:
Boston: 43-31
New York: 41-32
The Yankees, at +6, are tied with the Reds for most games over their projected record.
I'm not sure what to make of this, to be honest with you.
Should it give Red Sox fans a bit of optimism? The idea being that their pitching numbers overall are very good, and the offensive numbers are fine as well. And these two fundamental elements will begin resulting in a higher stream of wins. While the Yankees will certainly "cool off," because they're playing over their projection.
Or, is it incorrect to use the Pythagorean Standings to predict future outcomes? The idea here being, "Just because the Yankees are outperforming now doesn't mean they're going to stop outperforming in the future."
There was an interesting exchange on this very topic, and it relates to these same two teams, at The Hardball Times recently. I'm going to paste some of it here (I hope that's o.k...) This was published on June 21 as part of the site's "Rivals in Exile" series. A running dialogue between a Yankee (Larry Mahnken) and a Red Sox fan (Ben Jacobs). Their new column was just published yesterday. Check it out here.
Jim Kaat, I'm happy to report, is extolling the virtues of retrosheet.org. That is great to hear, a "mainstream" baseball voice broadcasting to the masses one of the Internet's most valuable baseball resources.
I'm about to call it a night, folks. My nose is running like a faucet, and I need to try and get some sleep if I have any chance of making work tomorrow.
The tally right now is 10-3 Yanks in a snoozer in the Bronx. The aura that surrounded the Cowboy Up Sox of 2003 continues to melt away...
*I'll be updating this post throughout the night, so scroll to the bottom of it for updates. Thanks.
If I was actually a participant in these baseball contests, instead of being an observer, I'd probably be sitting this one out. I have a crappy, cruddy summer cold having its way with my system. I actually left work early today, came home, had a sandwich and went to bed for about six hours. There's been only minimal improvement since then.
I don't know how deep into the night I'll make it, but this is too good a baseball night not to follow along.
"And just like that the Red Sox lead 1-0..." Michael Kay on the YES Network.
Johnny Damon just hit an absolute bomb into one of the lower rows in the upper deck in right.
This game is one of five "rivalry" match-ups that have mid-season playoff implications.
Boston @ New York
Houston @ Chicago
Chicago @ Minnesota
Anaheim @ Oakland
San Franciso @ Los Angeles
Another reason for a couple of my friends who are both liberal and Red Sox fans to hate the Yankees: Dick Cheney is at the Stadium tonight, and was hobnobbing with the team before the game. Apparently his presence has necessitated a boost in security, because a noticeable amount of fans are still filing into the park.
Derek Lowe's overall numbers aren't very good:
6-6, 5.24, 77.1 IP, 93 H, 35 BB, 39 K
However, he appears to be in the midst of turning his season around. I've caught a sizable portion of his recent starts, and he's been throwing much better. His pitches have had much more bite to them, and for Lowe that means better downward action. He's pitched seven innings in each of his last three starts, and his ERA has been going down as well.
6/11 vs. Dodgers: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K
6/17 at Colorado: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 3 K
6/23 vs. Minnesota: 7 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
While those four earned runs weren't anything to write home about, and he did get the loss, his seven K's were easily his season high.
The Red Sox defense continues to shine: E6 (bad, low throw to first) allows Yanks' lead-off man on in the first. Sox now have 63 errors (second worst in the AL).
UPDATE, 7:42
The Yanks have two runners on and no one out in the 2nd after consecutive singles by Matsui and Williams.
"As quickly as sinkerball pitchers can get into jams, they can just as quickly get out of it with that double play ball" - Jim Kaat on the YES Network.
As if he knew it was coming... Posada just grounded into a 6-4-3 DP.
Maybe it's because of the amount of Yankee propaganda that the rest of team's announcers spew, but Jim Kaat continues to rise in my estimation. I think he's always been a good analyst, but this season he's been excellent. Although he veers quite a bit into "In my day..."-territory, he definitely has an incredibly vast knowledge of the game, communicates well and isn't over-bearing in the booth. I heard a recent interview he did on New York radio, and it was one of the better baseball spots I've heard in awhile.
Base hit by Tony Clark ties the game at one. Looked like Lowe was going to wiggle out of that one...
After two, Yanks 1, Sox 1
UPDATE: 8:09
Seeing how the other half lives. I decided to switch over to NESN's feed to balance my broadcasting needs. Don Orsillo and Jerry Remy.
Thanks to MLB.TV, I'm starting to get a better feel for all the various local broadcasting teams throughout the country. One of the cool aspects about the set-up, imo...
My early impressions: I like the Giants' tandem of Duane Kiper and Mike Krukow a lot. Maybe he has to grow on you, but I'm not a big fan of Rex Hudler (Anaheim) at this point. I think the A's guys are pretty good. I can't say anything bad about Joe Buck (St. Louis). Vin Scully is Vin Scully.
I guess my point is that I think Orsillo/Remy might be the best local broadcast tandem in baseball. They've (especially Remy) gained a cult-status among the Boston faithfull that is rarely given to announcers. He has a catchy, fun nickname (The Rem Dog), and on any given night at Fenway Park it seems there are as many Jerry Remy banners as there are banners for the players. The only thing I can really compare it to (that I've experienced first-hand) is the kind of iconic adulation that was given to Phil Rizzuto as an announcer for the Yankees. Think of a toned down version of how the Cubs fans think of Harry Carey.
Although broadcasters become legendary in their own right (Harwell, Scully, Allen, Barber, Buck, Gowdy, Carey), it's rare that they veer off into the direction of pop-culture, becoming a bit larger than life. Remy's not quite there yet, but he's on that path. And, by the way, he is an excellent analyst.
Millar worked Vazquez to the point of 12 pitches in the AB, and then struck out on a breaking pitch (maybe a change?).
Good Lord... Damon just hit another freakin' bomb off Vazquez, this time deep into the righfield bleachers. About halfway back.
Yanks now have runners at the corners with no one out in the third. A Sheffield sac fly just knocked in Lofton. Game tied at two. Neither pitcher is doing much at this stage to keep these two potent offenses at bay.
Jeter just stole second. A good pitch to run on: breaking ball down in the dirt. 1-2 on A-Rod.
It just turned 8:00, which means a couple more of those rivalry games will be getting underway. I was debating which one I'm going to put on, either ChiSox-Twinkies or Cubbies-Astros... I think I'm going to go with the latter. Reasons: 1) The Metrodome. 2) I don't particularly like watching the White Sox 3) Pettitte's throwing for Houston tonight, and his presence (and success) in that rotation is vital for them to turn things around. 4) I think of the four teams involved in these two games, Houston is the one with the most on the line. They got swept by the Cubs in a four-gamer at home a couple of weeks ago, and they really need to start showing something. That makes the Cubs game a bit more compelling in my book.
Yanks just pulled off a rare (for them) double-steal. Jeter to third, A-Rod to second. They must have a good read on Lowe...
4-2 Yanks. Matsui just drilled a Lowe offering into right. Curveball on a 3-2 count. Looks like Lowe's run of success is getting knocked off track tonight.
UPDATE
NESN showed a shot of Dick Cheney sitting in a field box bookmarked by Guliani and Pataki. All three were wearing Yankee hats that looked like they'd just been taken out of the box. Without missing a beat, Jerry Remy declared, "NESN is proud to announce that John Kerry will carry Massachusetts."
Vazquez has six-pitch, 1-2-3 4th.
Astros have two on with two out in the top of the 1st. Kent's up. Glendon Rusch is pitching. Count now 3-2...
Base hit drives in Beltran, a little dunk shot to right.
After a 20 minute break or so, I'm back...
Tony Clark just hit a ball into the Black Bleachers at Yankee Stadium. He had actually done once before, with the Tigers in 1999. So that makes a total of 23 times it's been done (including post-season) by 18 different players since the Stadium was re-modeled in 1976.
The thing that struck me about the home run beside the distance, was how free and easy Clark's swing was.
I've heard a lot recently how the Yankees have done such-and-such a thing since April 25; same thing for the Red Sox.
YES just showed an interesting comparison box. Since that date the Yankees are +24 over .500. The Red Sox are +4.
The Yanks are scoring runs at a 6 per game clip; the Sox are at 5.7. Not much of a difference there.
The kicker, of course, is that Boston actually has a lower ERA than the Yankees since that time: 4.12 to 4.35.
I'm going to assume that this is showing how much Boston's defense has hurt the team, specifically in the unearned runs department.
But I'm also wondering about that mysterious little thing called "luck."
The Sox are still outperforming New York in the Pythagorean Standings:
Boston: 43-31
New York: 41-32
The Yankees, at +6, are tied with the Reds for most games over their projected record.
I'm not sure what to make of this, to be honest with you.
Should it give Red Sox fans a bit of optimism? The idea being that their pitching numbers overall are very good, and the offensive numbers are fine as well. And these two fundamental elements will begin resulting in a higher stream of wins. While the Yankees will certainly "cool off," because they're playing over their projection.
Or, is it incorrect to use the Pythagorean Standings to predict future outcomes? The idea here being, "Just because the Yankees are outperforming now doesn't mean they're going to stop outperforming in the future."
There was an interesting exchange on this very topic, and it relates to these same two teams, at The Hardball Times recently. I'm going to paste some of it here (I hope that's o.k...) This was published on June 21 as part of the site's "Rivals in Exile" series. A running dialogue between a Yankee (Larry Mahnken) and a Red Sox fan (Ben Jacobs). Their new column was just published yesterday. Check it out here.
June 21
Ben Jacobs: I know you're a believer in Pythagorean Records and while the Red Sox trail the Yankees by 4.5 games in the standings, they've scored seven more runs and allowed just four more runs than the Yankees have this season. The Red Sox have outplayed their Pythagorean Record by a game, while the Yankees have outplayed theirs by six games.
What's more, the Yankees have scored about as many runs as they should have scored based on their component statistics, but the Red Sox have under performed on offense by at least 20 runs. That's largely because the Red Sox have hit .274/.359/.453 overall, but just .213/.267/.315 in 89 at-bats with the bases loaded. There's no reason to expect a player with a .275 GPA to have a .199 GPA with the bases loaded, and there's no reason to expect a team to either.
So, while the Yankees can expect to benefit from an easier schedule the rest of the way, they can't expect to continue to benefit from superior luck the rest of the way (it might still happen, but it can't be expected). If they Yankees start having bad luck and the Red Sox start having the luck the Yankees have had, then the easier schedule might not be enough to help New York.
For now, however, I don't want to put too much weight on that. I'm content just saying that both the Red Sox and Yankees have good teams, both the Red Sox and Yankees are going to make the playoffs, and the Red Sox still have a decent shot at winning the AL East.
Larry Mahnken: ... you misinterpret my feelings on Pythagorean Percentage--just because a team is playing above or below their Pythag. doesn't mean they're lucky or unlucky, it means that they're winning more or fewer games than that formula projects.
Good luck is when events out of your control go in your favor, not when you win more often than your runs scored and allowed would suggest. You can win with bad luck, you can lose with good luck.
If you outplay a team, but because of bad calls by the umpires, or maybe a bad bounce, or fan interference--whatever--you don't score as many runs as you could, and maybe give up some runs that you shouldn't, you've been unlucky. But you end up winning the game by one run. Say the same sort of things happen again the next day, you win by one run again. You won two one-run games, but not because you were lucky--bad luck made them one run games.
Pythagorean Percentage also doesn't account for how your runs are distributed either--the tenth run you score is nowhere near as important as the third run, unless your pitching stinks that night. And how many runs you score against another team's mopup pitchers are not as indicative of your offensive prowess as how you do against the more important starters and relievers. And if the Yankees blow out the Orioles this week, does that suddenly mean they played better in all the games before this last one?
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying Pythagorean Percentage is worthless, but it's most important contribution to the discussion is that it demonstrated that runs and wins were directly related to each other. But don't interpret it as something it's not. Boston's been below their Pythagorean Projection for years, their "luck" hasn't turned around yet.
Runs Created--which accounts for Clutch Hitting--without the Park Adjustments, puts the Yankees' offense right where it is--361 runs through Saturday--and Boston is only 12 runs below their projection, not the 20 you suggest. Adjust for Park Factors, and New York's lineup has performed better than Boston's.
...
Don't cling to the hope that because the Yankees may have had good luck and Boston may have had bad luck, that it'll flip-flop the rest of the way--you know it doesn't work like that. The expectation should be that they'll both have normal luck, but the Yankees have just as good a chance to have good luck the rest of the year as Boston does.
Jim Kaat, I'm happy to report, is extolling the virtues of retrosheet.org. That is great to hear, a "mainstream" baseball voice broadcasting to the masses one of the Internet's most valuable baseball resources.
I'm about to call it a night, folks. My nose is running like a faucet, and I need to try and get some sleep if I have any chance of making work tomorrow.
The tally right now is 10-3 Yanks in a snoozer in the Bronx. The aura that surrounded the Cowboy Up Sox of 2003 continues to melt away...
