Tuesday, August 03, 2004
A Case for the Starters
The Yanks hit Mark Mulder hard and early, but it just didn't matter. Because as Mulder was settling down and shutting New York down, Jon Lieber's offerings started whistling around the park.
Mulder's still throwing, actually, as I write this. And Oakland is pounding New York to the tune of 10-4 in the 7th.
I don't think the Yankees are going to play an important series the rest of the regular season, but one can't helping thinking "playoff match-up" with the A's in New York for a three-game set in the first week of August.
Although Jon Lieber would never face a Mark Mulder, or a Hudson or a Zito for that matter, in a playoff game (he probably won't start at all), his performance tonight (4.1 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) is a reminder of New York's shortcomings in the starting pitching department.
In fairness though, Lieber's ineffectiveness shouldn't take away from the fact that Mussina/Brown/Vazquez could still be an effective troika. Could is the operative word; at this point, what are the chances that all three will be firing at the same time in October?
Among the multitude of stats and information posted on The Hardball Times, there is one stat called Runs Saved Above Average or RSAA that is particularly interesting. The defintion from that site:
Here are the combined RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) for the top four pitchers in each of the AL contenders rotations:
Anaheim
Colon (-12) + Escobar (12) + Lackey (5) + Washburn (-1) = 4 RSAA
Boston
Martinez (9) + Schilling (22) + Wakefield (0) + Lowe (-31) = 0 RSAA
Maybe this will end up being a futile and pointless statistical comparison. So be it. But to see that the Angels' starting four actually would rank ahead of Boston's is eye-catching. Sure, the Red Sox are going to have an advantage in a playoff game almost anytime Pedro and Schilling pitch. But after that it gets a bit scary, especially if they would use a four-man rotation in the playoffs.
Chicago
Buehrle (13) + Garcia (27, combined) + Garland (4) + Schoeneweis (-3) = 41 RSAA
Minnesota
Santana (23) + Radke (15) + Silva (2) + Lohse (-7) = 32 RSAA
Errrr... maybe I spoke too soon about that Pedro/Schilling thing. If the Sox matched up with the Twins in a playoff series (and assuming these ratios played out...), they would either have Pedro vs. Santana/Schilling vs. Radke or Pedro vs. Radke/Schilling vs. Santana. In the former that's two games that they'd have the lesser RSAA. In the latter they would have a +7 advantage with Schilling over Radke, but a -14 in the Pedro/Santana match-up.
New York
Vazquez (8) + Brown (5) + Mussina (-10) + ??? For now, I'm going to put Loaiza (-3) in this spot, although El Duque (6) could make a run at a post-season start with his guile and experience. All of that equals a -6 RSAA.
As much as Vazquez/Brown/Mussina might have a nice ring to it, you can't forget that Mussina has been giving up hits at an alarming rate all year. There's no guarantee that he's going to have an amazing turnaround.
Oakland
Mulder (25) + Hudson (21) + Harden (8) + Zito (-6) = 48 RSAA
Texas
Drese (17) + Rogers (1) + Dickey (-19) + Benoit (-14) = -15 RSAA
*RSAA are through 7/29/04
The Yanks hit Mark Mulder hard and early, but it just didn't matter. Because as Mulder was settling down and shutting New York down, Jon Lieber's offerings started whistling around the park.
Mulder's still throwing, actually, as I write this. And Oakland is pounding New York to the tune of 10-4 in the 7th.
I don't think the Yankees are going to play an important series the rest of the regular season, but one can't helping thinking "playoff match-up" with the A's in New York for a three-game set in the first week of August.
Although Jon Lieber would never face a Mark Mulder, or a Hudson or a Zito for that matter, in a playoff game (he probably won't start at all), his performance tonight (4.1 IP, 11 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K) is a reminder of New York's shortcomings in the starting pitching department.
In fairness though, Lieber's ineffectiveness shouldn't take away from the fact that Mussina/Brown/Vazquez could still be an effective troika. Could is the operative word; at this point, what are the chances that all three will be firing at the same time in October?
Among the multitude of stats and information posted on The Hardball Times, there is one stat called Runs Saved Above Average or RSAA that is particularly interesting. The defintion from that site:
RSAA: Runs Saved Above Average, a stat that has been popularized by Lee Sinins. It's the league-average number of runs allowed, minus the pitcher's number of runs allowed, multiplied by that pitcher's innings pitched. It calculates how many runs the pitcher has allowed, compared to the league average, and counts positive performances as "runs saved."
Here are the combined RSAA (Runs Saved Above Average) for the top four pitchers in each of the AL contenders rotations:
Anaheim
Colon (-12) + Escobar (12) + Lackey (5) + Washburn (-1) = 4 RSAA
Boston
Martinez (9) + Schilling (22) + Wakefield (0) + Lowe (-31) = 0 RSAA
Maybe this will end up being a futile and pointless statistical comparison. So be it. But to see that the Angels' starting four actually would rank ahead of Boston's is eye-catching. Sure, the Red Sox are going to have an advantage in a playoff game almost anytime Pedro and Schilling pitch. But after that it gets a bit scary, especially if they would use a four-man rotation in the playoffs.
Chicago
Buehrle (13) + Garcia (27, combined) + Garland (4) + Schoeneweis (-3) = 41 RSAA
Minnesota
Santana (23) + Radke (15) + Silva (2) + Lohse (-7) = 32 RSAA
Errrr... maybe I spoke too soon about that Pedro/Schilling thing. If the Sox matched up with the Twins in a playoff series (and assuming these ratios played out...), they would either have Pedro vs. Santana/Schilling vs. Radke or Pedro vs. Radke/Schilling vs. Santana. In the former that's two games that they'd have the lesser RSAA. In the latter they would have a +7 advantage with Schilling over Radke, but a -14 in the Pedro/Santana match-up.
New York
Vazquez (8) + Brown (5) + Mussina (-10) + ??? For now, I'm going to put Loaiza (-3) in this spot, although El Duque (6) could make a run at a post-season start with his guile and experience. All of that equals a -6 RSAA.
As much as Vazquez/Brown/Mussina might have a nice ring to it, you can't forget that Mussina has been giving up hits at an alarming rate all year. There's no guarantee that he's going to have an amazing turnaround.
Oakland
Mulder (25) + Hudson (21) + Harden (8) + Zito (-6) = 48 RSAA
Texas
Drese (17) + Rogers (1) + Dickey (-19) + Benoit (-14) = -15 RSAA
*RSAA are through 7/29/04
