Saturday, August 25, 2007
Not Entirely Stable . . . Gee, I'm Glad You're Here to Tell Us That
If a baseball team's fortunes were dependent on the whims and emotions of its fan base, then the New York Yankees would surely be on the brink. While it's foolish to suggest that one game out of 162 games, a game on August 24 no less, can decide a season, last night's contest versus the Detroit Tigers put all conventional wisdom to the test.
Just hours ago, the Yankees suffered their rottenest loss of the season. Here's a series of events that transpired yesterday afternoon into the early hours of today; all together they are worthy to dubbed Black Friday in Yankeeland.
1. In the major's only matinee match-up, the Red Sox beat up on the White Sox in a make-up game from Thursday's rain out. Their lead in the division is pushed up to 5.5 games.
2. The Yankees and Tigers go into a long, long rain delay eliminating me from the proceedings. After spending a fair amount of time out in the sun on Friday, I was cooked, literally and figuratively, and once the starting time drifted into the 9:00 hour, I knew there was no way I would see the end of the game. Turns out I didn't see the beginning either.
3. In the night cap of the day-night doubleheader, Boston beats up on Chicago again, pushing their lead to a cool six games.
4. The Yankees and Tigers finally get under way around 11:00 p.m. - four hours after the scheduled 7:00 start.
5. The Mariners polish off the Rangers for the second night in a row, pushing their Wild Card lead to 2.5 over New York.
6. The Yankees are down 6-3 after four innings, with Roger Clemens really struggling.
7. The Yankees score three in the top of the 5th to tie the game at six, which is where it would stay for another 5 1/2 innings.
8. Just past 3:30 a.m. Carlos Guillen drills a walk-off, three-run home run off Sean Henn to give the Tigers the victory. As a result New York falls 6.5 games behind the Red Sox and 3 games behind Seattle (4 in the loss column).
Not only is it the worst loss of the season, considering timeframe (that first game at Fenway Park, believe it or not, is still the toughest loss of the year in my book), but it is a "perspective changer."
This kind of loss is a dose of reality that suggests that the Yankees really are not going to make the post-season this year. I know that the Yankees not making the playoffs wouldn't surprise anyone who has been following the team closely this year. Hell, I counted them out after the Saturday loss in San Francisco, and counted them out for the division in May. I know I'm not breaking ground here.
But the loss to the Tigers in the wee small hours of this morning makes the Yankees' shortcomings evident. Blindingly evident. Namely:
The unreliable starting pitching
and
The constantly shifting, unstable line-up, which still provides enough punch to score runs on a day-to-day basis, but does nothing for continunity and stability, assets which are helpful in nutcracker games.
The disappointing aspect of the first point is that when it comes to the rotation, it has been the most stable month of the season, in terms of personnel.
When Phil Hughes arrived with his weight of expectations on Saturday, August 4 vs. Kansas City, it marked the first time in 2007 that the Yankees were able to trot out their desired five starters in order.
8/1: Pettitte
8/2: Clemens
8/3: Wang
8/4: Hughes
8/5: Mussina
Their numbers the first time through this complete rotation:
Dates: August 1-August 5
Team Record: 4-1
Starters Record: 3-0
IP: 26.1
H: 38
R: 18
ER: 13
BB: 5
K: 17
ERA: 4.44
Nothing special. .30 points better than the rotation did in July, which included four starts by Kei Igawa and one by Matt DeSalvo.
Alright, how about the second time through, this time against better competion, three vs. Toronto and two vs. Cleveland.
Dates: August 6-11
Team Record: 4-1
Starters Record: 4-1
IP: 28
H: 29
R: 15
ER: 15
BB: 8
K: 28
ERA: 4.82
The ERA is really weighted down by Wang's 2.2 inning/8 run disaster at Toronto on the 8th. Other than that though, this was a decent stretch by the starters, as their H/IP came down and K/9 went up.
Third time through the rotation. *This includes a start by Jeff Karstens on 8/14 in place of Clemens who was serving a suspension.
Dates: August 12-16
Team Record: 2-3
Starters Record: 1-2
IP: 26.1
H: 35
R: 22
ER: 20
BB: 11
K: 13
ERA: 6.84
A train wreck. Unlike the previous two passes through the rotation, the offense could not bail these guys out. A 4.4 K/9? Dreadful. The "gem" of the group is Mussina's excuse for a start against the Tigers on 8/16 (5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER), but Karsten's effort on the 14th vs. Baltimore isn't far behind: 3 IP, 5 ER.
Dates: August 17-21
Team Record: 3-2
Starters Record: 3-1
IP: 28
H: 35
R: 18
ER: 18
BB: 10
K: 24
ERA: 5.79
More than a run improvement on the ERA compared to the previous pass through the rotation; that's not much consolation when it's still over five-and-a-half. Mussina again serves as boat anchor as Pettitte - Clemens - Wang - Hughes, all ranged from serviceable to very good. Mussina's Tuesday outing vs. the Angels (1.2, 7 H, 7 ER) was one of the worst of his career.
Since then, there's been one good, Pettitte, and one bad, Clemens last night. The trend continues.
Stability and continuity in the rotation has not equated into success for the Yankees' starters. The overall trends of the season (not enough strikeouts, too many hits) remain chronic problems.
The schedule lightens up in September, when it comes to playing offensive powerhouses:
OPS Rankings of New York's September Opponents
Tampa, 7th, .752 (5 games)
Seattle, 4th, .770 (3 games)
Kansas City, 13th, .717 (3 games)
Toronto, 8th, .744 (7 games)
Boston, 3rd, .800 (3 games)
Baltimore, 10th, .742 (6 games)
The Yankees have fired all the bullets that this season could possibly allow when it comes to building their starting staff. The re-sign of Mussina in the off-season, which now appears to be a stroke of misfortune. The pursuit of Pettitte, which has turned out to be an absolute necessity. The celebratory welcoming back of Clemens, who has been average. And the underwhelming return, to this point, of Phil Hughes from injury.
There are no other moves to make, no other solutions. I'm not expecting much of a turnaround, as you can probably tell. The bats will have to carry this team over the final month of the season, as they have really all year long. The post-season is still a doable achievement, especially considering Seattle's difficult schedule. However, my aspirations of pitching well against teams like LAAnaheim, Boston, Detroit or Cleveland in October are nil.
If a baseball team's fortunes were dependent on the whims and emotions of its fan base, then the New York Yankees would surely be on the brink. While it's foolish to suggest that one game out of 162 games, a game on August 24 no less, can decide a season, last night's contest versus the Detroit Tigers put all conventional wisdom to the test.
Just hours ago, the Yankees suffered their rottenest loss of the season. Here's a series of events that transpired yesterday afternoon into the early hours of today; all together they are worthy to dubbed Black Friday in Yankeeland.
1. In the major's only matinee match-up, the Red Sox beat up on the White Sox in a make-up game from Thursday's rain out. Their lead in the division is pushed up to 5.5 games.
2. The Yankees and Tigers go into a long, long rain delay eliminating me from the proceedings. After spending a fair amount of time out in the sun on Friday, I was cooked, literally and figuratively, and once the starting time drifted into the 9:00 hour, I knew there was no way I would see the end of the game. Turns out I didn't see the beginning either.
3. In the night cap of the day-night doubleheader, Boston beats up on Chicago again, pushing their lead to a cool six games.
4. The Yankees and Tigers finally get under way around 11:00 p.m. - four hours after the scheduled 7:00 start.
5. The Mariners polish off the Rangers for the second night in a row, pushing their Wild Card lead to 2.5 over New York.
6. The Yankees are down 6-3 after four innings, with Roger Clemens really struggling.
7. The Yankees score three in the top of the 5th to tie the game at six, which is where it would stay for another 5 1/2 innings.
8. Just past 3:30 a.m. Carlos Guillen drills a walk-off, three-run home run off Sean Henn to give the Tigers the victory. As a result New York falls 6.5 games behind the Red Sox and 3 games behind Seattle (4 in the loss column).
Not only is it the worst loss of the season, considering timeframe (that first game at Fenway Park, believe it or not, is still the toughest loss of the year in my book), but it is a "perspective changer."
This kind of loss is a dose of reality that suggests that the Yankees really are not going to make the post-season this year. I know that the Yankees not making the playoffs wouldn't surprise anyone who has been following the team closely this year. Hell, I counted them out after the Saturday loss in San Francisco, and counted them out for the division in May. I know I'm not breaking ground here.
But the loss to the Tigers in the wee small hours of this morning makes the Yankees' shortcomings evident. Blindingly evident. Namely:
The unreliable starting pitching
and
The constantly shifting, unstable line-up, which still provides enough punch to score runs on a day-to-day basis, but does nothing for continunity and stability, assets which are helpful in nutcracker games.
The disappointing aspect of the first point is that when it comes to the rotation, it has been the most stable month of the season, in terms of personnel.
When Phil Hughes arrived with his weight of expectations on Saturday, August 4 vs. Kansas City, it marked the first time in 2007 that the Yankees were able to trot out their desired five starters in order.
8/1: Pettitte
8/2: Clemens
8/3: Wang
8/4: Hughes
8/5: Mussina
Their numbers the first time through this complete rotation:
Dates: August 1-August 5
Team Record: 4-1
Starters Record: 3-0
IP: 26.1
H: 38
R: 18
ER: 13
BB: 5
K: 17
ERA: 4.44
Nothing special. .30 points better than the rotation did in July, which included four starts by Kei Igawa and one by Matt DeSalvo.
Alright, how about the second time through, this time against better competion, three vs. Toronto and two vs. Cleveland.
Dates: August 6-11
Team Record: 4-1
Starters Record: 4-1
IP: 28
H: 29
R: 15
ER: 15
BB: 8
K: 28
ERA: 4.82
The ERA is really weighted down by Wang's 2.2 inning/8 run disaster at Toronto on the 8th. Other than that though, this was a decent stretch by the starters, as their H/IP came down and K/9 went up.
Third time through the rotation. *This includes a start by Jeff Karstens on 8/14 in place of Clemens who was serving a suspension.
Dates: August 12-16
Team Record: 2-3
Starters Record: 1-2
IP: 26.1
H: 35
R: 22
ER: 20
BB: 11
K: 13
ERA: 6.84
A train wreck. Unlike the previous two passes through the rotation, the offense could not bail these guys out. A 4.4 K/9? Dreadful. The "gem" of the group is Mussina's excuse for a start against the Tigers on 8/16 (5 IP, 9 H, 6 ER), but Karsten's effort on the 14th vs. Baltimore isn't far behind: 3 IP, 5 ER.
Dates: August 17-21
Team Record: 3-2
Starters Record: 3-1
IP: 28
H: 35
R: 18
ER: 18
BB: 10
K: 24
ERA: 5.79
More than a run improvement on the ERA compared to the previous pass through the rotation; that's not much consolation when it's still over five-and-a-half. Mussina again serves as boat anchor as Pettitte - Clemens - Wang - Hughes, all ranged from serviceable to very good. Mussina's Tuesday outing vs. the Angels (1.2, 7 H, 7 ER) was one of the worst of his career.
Since then, there's been one good, Pettitte, and one bad, Clemens last night. The trend continues.
Stability and continuity in the rotation has not equated into success for the Yankees' starters. The overall trends of the season (not enough strikeouts, too many hits) remain chronic problems.
The schedule lightens up in September, when it comes to playing offensive powerhouses:
OPS Rankings of New York's September Opponents
Tampa, 7th, .752 (5 games)
Seattle, 4th, .770 (3 games)
Kansas City, 13th, .717 (3 games)
Toronto, 8th, .744 (7 games)
Boston, 3rd, .800 (3 games)
Baltimore, 10th, .742 (6 games)
The Yankees have fired all the bullets that this season could possibly allow when it comes to building their starting staff. The re-sign of Mussina in the off-season, which now appears to be a stroke of misfortune. The pursuit of Pettitte, which has turned out to be an absolute necessity. The celebratory welcoming back of Clemens, who has been average. And the underwhelming return, to this point, of Phil Hughes from injury.
There are no other moves to make, no other solutions. I'm not expecting much of a turnaround, as you can probably tell. The bats will have to carry this team over the final month of the season, as they have really all year long. The post-season is still a doable achievement, especially considering Seattle's difficult schedule. However, my aspirations of pitching well against teams like LAAnaheim, Boston, Detroit or Cleveland in October are nil.
