Saturday, April 25, 2009

We've Seen This Before

The Boston Red Sox have scored one more run than the Yankees this season, playing in the same amount of games: 16. Boston has allowed 35 fewer runs (67 to 102), but if you'll allow me to take out the 15 and 22 runs allowed in Chien-Ming Wang's last two starts and replace them with the Yankees' average RA/G total, that number shrinks a bit. I think Boston will hold a pitching/defense advantage over the Yankees this year from wire-to-wire, but it's fairly close, statistically.

In other words, these two teams are very similar and I would expect them to be within 3-4 wins of each other by season's end.

And yet last night exemplified the absolute gorge that still separates these two franchises. With memories of the first Fenway game in 2007 rattling in my head, Mariano Rivera pulled a similar trick against the team that has rendered him mortal since 2001.

In one towering home run by Jason Bay in the 9th to tie it, and with one Youkilis swing in the 11th to win it (off of one of Brian Cashman's more dubious pitching acquisitions of late), the Red Sox cemented that, yes, they are still the favorites to win this division (not that I doubted that earlier in the evening) and it's the Yankees who resemble a dog chasing its tail when it comes to this rivalry now.

It was a gut-puncher. With the Boston line-up far different than recent incarnations, mainly due to David Ortiz looking mortal this season, they were still able to deliver in a spot against Rivera, who had looked excellent so far this season. Boston's nine may lack the punch of previous teams (6th in the A.L. in home runs right now), but they're still carrying the defending A.L. MVP and are boasting the hottest hitter in the world right now in Youkilis, who has emerged far beyond the "Greek God of Walks" moniker that Billy Beane levied on him seven years ago.

The Yankees are teetering on the brink of a terrible weekend. In addition to losing in now-familiar fashion in that park, they lost their third baseman to the DL and their second best reliever who was surprisingly unavailable last night, is back in New York and getting his elbow examined. After throwing 30+ pitches last night, Rivera is most likely on the shelf this afternoon, and Marte might be shot for good in terms of giving the Yankees anything of note. As emotionally fired up as he was last night on the mound, you got the feeling he was putting everything into that performance, a chance for redemption for his poor work in pinstripes so far. And it didn't work out. At all.

They will need innings and quality out of their two starters today and tomorrow (Burnett and Pettitte) to try and off-set a Boston sweep and not make the A.L. East race a foregone conclusion in late April. Although my money says it already is . . .

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