Wednesday, June 17, 2009
In a Sea of Interleague
The Yankees began a stretch of 15 games last night that I expect will push their season record to a high-water mark of 13-15 games over .500 when it's completed.
3 vs. Washington
3 at Florida
3 at Atlanta
3 at New York
3 vs. Seattle
It's their last, extended rocking chair stretch of the season, with only smaller pockets of breathers (7 vs. Oakland/Baltimore in July; a West Coast slate against Oakland & Seattle in August) left in the schedule.
To the north, the Boston Red Sox are settling in for a summer of crusin', riding in style with the top down. A quick look at their schedule, and it's easy to see that Boston is set up well to maintain their stranglehold on the division into the midst of August.
Just knocking through the schedules quickly, I put the Sox at 66-40 and the Yankees at 62-45 going into their next series, August 6-9 at Yankee Stadium. By that time, I think the Yanks have a shot to be up 5+ games in the Wild Card, which means any subsequent match-ups between Boston and New York will be more about playoff positioning than anything else. Beyond the issue of the Yankees trying to get over the impenetrable, tantalizing, mind-numbing wall of beating Boston for the first time this year, if they can jockey back into position to make a run at the division over the final six or seven weeks of the season, it could be to their clear advantage come October.
I haven't thought this way in the past, but for the first time I think there is some value in securing the extra game at home if these two old combatants were to meet again in the post-season. And that's simply because of the way Yankee Stadium is playing, which I think would be a slight advantage to the Yankees' more power-laden line-up. Of course the Sox are 22-8 at home so there's that issue too.
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Nothing like National League competition to help Tampa hit their stride. The Rays have won six in a row now, and have settled in comfortably above .500 now at +4. This is a dangerous team despite their wobbly first two months. They lead the league in runs, and their pitching is rounding into shape: 2nd in the A.L. with a 2.89 ERA in June.
Looking at the landscape of the league, the line for New York's competition for the A.L.'s 4th playoff spot begins & ends in Pinellas County.
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The Jays staved off their freefall with a nice win against the Phillies last night, scoring five runs in the top of the 10th for an 8-3 win. They're even with the Rays as I write, but I imagine in 24-48 hours that will change, and once they fall behind them it's going to be brutal for the Jays to keep up the pace.
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Big Papi hit his 5th homer of the year last night. His rate stats are still deplorable for the season (.210/.308/.355), but it's now time to suggest he's starting to come around. For June he's hitting .333/.429/.694 with 4 HR and 10 RBI. My earlier suspicion that we'd see Ortiz enter the realm of respectability, in terms overall numbers, by late July is starting to come to fruition. He's not shot just yet.
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I keep discounting Texas in the way that I've discounted Toronto all along, as I envision LA/Anaheim asserting themselves as the summer rolls on and eventually taking control of that division. However, the Rangers are still maintaining a two-game lead and are now nine over .500 after last night's 6-1 win over the Astros. L.A. and Texas meet six times before the All-Star Break (6/29-7/1 in Texas; 7/6-7/8 in Anaheim). That little run could give an indicator of where the Rangers stand with half of the season in the books. Sidenote: Kevin Millwood dropped his ERA to 2.62 last night throwing a 7/4/1/1/3/6 line at Houston. In three starts in June (Boston, Toronto, Houston) he's 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA in 21.2 innings of work. I can't imagine him keeping up that kind of work, but he's had an outstanding season so far. This is from a guy whose ERA ranged from 4.52 to 5.16 over the last three seasons.
----
After the weekend series in the Bronx, the frustration of the Mets' fans was palpable on talk radio. One reason I can't pull the plug on them yet, or anyone in the National League for that matter: at the close of play on Sunday, the San Francisco Giants were the Wild Card leaders, albeit by percentage points over St. Louis. The Cards have a 1/2 game lead on New York and San Fran entering today's action. The story of the Giants has been one of "good pitch, no hit" all season long. However, this month they've found themselves in the realm of respectability with the lumber. Currently 6th the N.L. in runs scored for the month of June, they're hitting .268/.300/.410. That OBP number is dreadful to be sure, and they're actually dead last in the N.L. at .313 for the season, but their BA and SLG for the month are okay. And when you pitch like they do, you can be merely shrug-of-the-shoulders-okay with the bats, and you'll still win some ballgames.
Their pitching has remain remarkably steady throughout. ERA month-by-month:
3.90 - April
3.75 - May
3.54 - June
For the season, their 2nd in the N.L. in ERA behind the Dodgers, 3.57 to 3.70.
The Yankees began a stretch of 15 games last night that I expect will push their season record to a high-water mark of 13-15 games over .500 when it's completed.
3 vs. Washington
3 at Florida
3 at Atlanta
3 at New York
3 vs. Seattle
It's their last, extended rocking chair stretch of the season, with only smaller pockets of breathers (7 vs. Oakland/Baltimore in July; a West Coast slate against Oakland & Seattle in August) left in the schedule.
To the north, the Boston Red Sox are settling in for a summer of crusin', riding in style with the top down. A quick look at their schedule, and it's easy to see that Boston is set up well to maintain their stranglehold on the division into the midst of August.
Just knocking through the schedules quickly, I put the Sox at 66-40 and the Yankees at 62-45 going into their next series, August 6-9 at Yankee Stadium. By that time, I think the Yanks have a shot to be up 5+ games in the Wild Card, which means any subsequent match-ups between Boston and New York will be more about playoff positioning than anything else. Beyond the issue of the Yankees trying to get over the impenetrable, tantalizing, mind-numbing wall of beating Boston for the first time this year, if they can jockey back into position to make a run at the division over the final six or seven weeks of the season, it could be to their clear advantage come October.
I haven't thought this way in the past, but for the first time I think there is some value in securing the extra game at home if these two old combatants were to meet again in the post-season. And that's simply because of the way Yankee Stadium is playing, which I think would be a slight advantage to the Yankees' more power-laden line-up. Of course the Sox are 22-8 at home so there's that issue too.
----
Nothing like National League competition to help Tampa hit their stride. The Rays have won six in a row now, and have settled in comfortably above .500 now at +4. This is a dangerous team despite their wobbly first two months. They lead the league in runs, and their pitching is rounding into shape: 2nd in the A.L. with a 2.89 ERA in June.
Looking at the landscape of the league, the line for New York's competition for the A.L.'s 4th playoff spot begins & ends in Pinellas County.
----
The Jays staved off their freefall with a nice win against the Phillies last night, scoring five runs in the top of the 10th for an 8-3 win. They're even with the Rays as I write, but I imagine in 24-48 hours that will change, and once they fall behind them it's going to be brutal for the Jays to keep up the pace.
----
Big Papi hit his 5th homer of the year last night. His rate stats are still deplorable for the season (.210/.308/.355), but it's now time to suggest he's starting to come around. For June he's hitting .333/.429/.694 with 4 HR and 10 RBI. My earlier suspicion that we'd see Ortiz enter the realm of respectability, in terms overall numbers, by late July is starting to come to fruition. He's not shot just yet.
----
I keep discounting Texas in the way that I've discounted Toronto all along, as I envision LA/Anaheim asserting themselves as the summer rolls on and eventually taking control of that division. However, the Rangers are still maintaining a two-game lead and are now nine over .500 after last night's 6-1 win over the Astros. L.A. and Texas meet six times before the All-Star Break (6/29-7/1 in Texas; 7/6-7/8 in Anaheim). That little run could give an indicator of where the Rangers stand with half of the season in the books. Sidenote: Kevin Millwood dropped his ERA to 2.62 last night throwing a 7/4/1/1/3/6 line at Houston. In three starts in June (Boston, Toronto, Houston) he's 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA in 21.2 innings of work. I can't imagine him keeping up that kind of work, but he's had an outstanding season so far. This is from a guy whose ERA ranged from 4.52 to 5.16 over the last three seasons.
----
After the weekend series in the Bronx, the frustration of the Mets' fans was palpable on talk radio. One reason I can't pull the plug on them yet, or anyone in the National League for that matter: at the close of play on Sunday, the San Francisco Giants were the Wild Card leaders, albeit by percentage points over St. Louis. The Cards have a 1/2 game lead on New York and San Fran entering today's action. The story of the Giants has been one of "good pitch, no hit" all season long. However, this month they've found themselves in the realm of respectability with the lumber. Currently 6th the N.L. in runs scored for the month of June, they're hitting .268/.300/.410. That OBP number is dreadful to be sure, and they're actually dead last in the N.L. at .313 for the season, but their BA and SLG for the month are okay. And when you pitch like they do, you can be merely shrug-of-the-shoulders-okay with the bats, and you'll still win some ballgames.
Their pitching has remain remarkably steady throughout. ERA month-by-month:
3.90 - April
3.75 - May
3.54 - June
For the season, their 2nd in the N.L. in ERA behind the Dodgers, 3.57 to 3.70.
