Saturday, June 20, 2009
Saturday Morning Snapshot
(The Pitching Friendly Edition - Look, Tables!)
Main Topics: Pettitte & Dice-K
Edited 9:38 a.m.
From Pete Abe's LoHud blog, posted last night after the game:
Alright, let's take a quick look at some pitching numbers. Road stats do not include last night's game in Florida.
Home
326 IP / 7.70 K/9 / 53 HR / 1.48 WHIP / 4.91 ERA
Road
275.2 IP / 7.20 K/9 / 34 HR / 1.35 WHIP / 4.56 ERA
That's a pretty crude study, but to go further, you could bring into account strength of schedule on the road vs. at home and a myriad of other factors. This will suffice for now. *Outside of the increased home run rate, which isn't enormous if you take into account the differences in innings played, the Yankees' staff isn't getting bludgeoned at home compared to the road. The rate stats are better on the road, but they're also benefiting from a .281 BAbip away from New York vs. a typical .304 at home.
*Update, 9:38 a.m.: The home run rate while looking small on the surface [1.4 HR/9 at Yankee Stadium vs. 1.1 HR/9 on the road] does end up making a huge difference. Equaling out the number of innings played at home and on the road to 326, the staff would have allowed 53 gopher balls at the former and 40 at the latter. As we'll see below, Pettitte plays a big role in this difference.
The Yankees have used only six starting pitchers this year, which is a far cry from the 13 they had to hand the ball to last season. Included in that motley cast of characters were Kei Igawa, Dan Giese, Carl Pavano, of course, and even Brian Bruney for a start. We think things are rocky this year with the pitching staff? Darrell Rasner started 20 games last year, but I digress.
Burnett and Chamberlain have started 13 games apiece and Sabathia and Pettitte have both thrown 14 games. Hughes and Wang round things out with seven and six starts respectively. Leaving Hughes & Wang aside, let's look at the main four starters and their home/road splits.
Record at Yankee Stadium
On The Road
Well, there's not much here that suggests that Yankee Stadium has been obviously detrimental (or will be detrimental "over the course of time") to any regular starter besides Andy Pettitte. I'm struck by the similarity of Sabathia's home/road splits; the numbers go up (with the K's going down) a tick at home, but nothing stark. Burnett has actually been better, much better, at Yankee Stadium, and my perception of Joba is that he's been burned less by his home ballpark than his wildness, immaturity and inexperience. In three less innings of work, he's walked five more batters at home than on the road, and has actually allowed fewer home runs in the "Lil' Stadium" than at opposing parks.
Pettitte though? Well, small sample size blah blah blah aside, it does look like the Stadium has had an ill effect on the veteran left-hander. The 9:2 home run split just jumps off the page, and based on the quotes from Abraham it seems to now be inside his head. "I need to figure something out at home" indicates that he's going to make some kind of adjustment but what? Pitch sequence? Trying to nibble on the corners more?
Burnett's given up seven home runs at the new park this year, but that's balanced out by five on the road (in 11+ less innings of work to boot).
The only other starter that really jumps off the page in terms of his home run split (and I'm not going to even bother looking at Wang's numbers) is Phil Hughes. In 24+ innings on the work on the road he's allowed two long balls. At home: five home runs in 18 IP.
And for what it's worth, here's a quick wrap on what the four relievers with the heaviest workloads have done at home vs. the road. All four have pitched between 17-19 innings at home, and 8-11+ on the road. Home WHIPs are first:
Aceves:
WHIP: 1.89 / 1.18
Coke:
WHIP: 0.92 / 1.32
Rivera:
WHIP: 1.16 / 0.92
Veras
WHIP: 1.38 / 1.56
Jose Veras in 8.1 innings of work on the road compiled this line: 8.1/10/5 earned runs/4/5 good for an 8.64 ERA. Easy to see why he was DFA'ed.
Again, when you're talking about eight and 11 innings of work, these are very small sample sizes, but Veras actually pitched better at home for whatever that's worth, and Coke has been much better at the new ballpark. I can't speak for Aceves particularly, but the times I've seen Mariano struggle at Yankee Stadium it's been less about wind currents and short fences, than line drives getting hit all over the joint.
In any case, I'm not convinced that the new Stadium has been "detrimental" to anyone's confidence besides Andy Pettitte, the subject of Abraham's story to begin with. He needed a tidy concluding sentence like all writers do, but I'm not sure it quite fits. And besides the team is 21-14 at home and 17-15 on the road. So they're coping.
----
The End of the Dice-K Era?
Rob Neyer was busy last night, and piggy-backed on David Pinto's post at Baseball Musings. What does that make me? Oh well, whatever, never mind . . .
The one thing Rob didn't point out, which Pinto alluded to, is Dice-K's H/9, which stood at 14.8 before last night. It was 8.4 in '07 and 6.9 last year. There has to be some regression in that number, but the bottom line is he isn't getting bleeped and blooped to death. He's getting whacked. His line drive percentage was steady in both of his first two seasons at 18%. This year, it's close to 30%. Theo Epstein and Bill James and HAL 9000 know all these numbers better than I do, and they're not going to sit there and watch this guy pitch like this when there are capable moundsmen waiting in the wings.
I've probably been a supporter (and I use that term with the lightest of connotations) of Daisuke Matsuzaka more than most people in these parts. The Red Sox fans are tired of him. The Yankee fans think he's been over-rated. And both camps are right in their own respective ways. If one of my projected top 3 starters were pitching to an 8.23 ERA and an unsightly 2.20 WHIP then yeah, I'd be pretty sick of it too. And truth be told, Matsuzaka has not lived up to the expectations that were levied on him in the winter of 2007, and there was a bit of smoke-and-mirrors act to his 2008 campaign.
However, the record does show he had a 200 inning/200 strikeout season for a team that won a championship. His record in 2007 wasn't as good as his peripherals would suggest, as he went 15-13 that season. Last year with the strikeout rate dipping a bit and his walks taking a turn for the worse, he still went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, which probably was a little misleading. But again, 160+ innings of work for a team that was one win away from another trip to the World Series.
Cut it however you'd like, but Masuzaka has been a major contributor to the Red Sox since 2007 and his apparent/possible demise is a problem for them. There's been so much talk about the Sox rotation, it's made prospective fantasy league GMs out of all us: who's out/who's in, should they trade Penny, how long are they going to let Buchholz rot in Pawtucket. John Smoltz is on his way, scheduled to pitch Thursday in what would be Matsuzaka's normal turn in the rotation. Although he's apparently been lights-out in his minor league stints, do we really know what the old, venerable right-hander is going to give the Sox from now until October? Buchholz is a guy who apparently has sorted out the kinks. And he better have; he pitched to a 6.75 ERA in 76 innings of work in the bigs last season.
Some if this is a Yankee fan grasping at straws. This (Boston) is a team that has the 2nd best run differential in the sport and has been the 2nd best team in the American League at preventing runs. For all of the inconsistency in the starting rotation this season, they're still 13 over .500 and in first place and remain the best team in the A.L. And now it looks as if they're going to make major changes to their rotation, whether it's simply addition & subtraction, or the quasi-six-man rotation that's being bandied about. Smoltz for Dice-K makes sense right now, but if they're going to try and shoehorn Buchholz in there for Penny, who's pitched well post-April, there's a chance that things will be getting jumbled a little too much for their own good.
---
On My Turntable
Neil Young. Lots of Neil Young. I don't think I'm going to make the plunge and buy the Mt. Olympus of all box sets. For the time being, I'm content to just plunge into the varied live recordings I have and the various studio albums in my collection. He's an artist that you can forever chase and never catch, like Dylan like Robert Pollard like a whale of some renown. The archives just go on and on like an endless stream. Watching the river flow, indeed. You never quite reach fulfillment with artists like these, which makes something like Archives both a monument and a gnomon.
Listened to a wonderful Nirvana recording last night for the first time. Melbourne, early '92. Sounded golden. That was right in the thick of it. And it now takes it's place alongside the Del Mar, California December '91 show as the best documents I've heard that capture that moment when it all went boom.
One of my favorite documentaries is streaming at Pitchfork. One week only though. There's at least one GBV fan who frequents these parts from time to time . . .
(The Pitching Friendly Edition - Look, Tables!)
Main Topics: Pettitte & Dice-K
Edited 9:38 a.m.
From Pete Abe's LoHud blog, posted last night after the game:
Those who think the skewed dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium aren’t a factor should ask Andy Pettitte what he thinks. The lefty has a 5.77 ERA at Yankee Stadium in nine starts. In six starts on the road, it’s 2.35. He has allowed nine home runs in the Bronx, two elsewhere.
“I might have given up three or four (home runs) tonight at home,” he said after holding the Marlins to one run over seven innings. “For the most part, that’s it right there. I’ve given up a few more long balls at Yankee Stadium. … I need to figure something out at home.”
The other pitchers, for the most part, feel the same way. While the new Lil’ Stadium helps the hitters, it’s causing havoc among the pitchers. They’re pitching away from contact, giving up more home runs, etc. Over the course of time, it’s detrimental to maintaining mechanics and confidence.
“I might have given up three or four (home runs) tonight at home,” he said after holding the Marlins to one run over seven innings. “For the most part, that’s it right there. I’ve given up a few more long balls at Yankee Stadium. … I need to figure something out at home.”
The other pitchers, for the most part, feel the same way. While the new Lil’ Stadium helps the hitters, it’s causing havoc among the pitchers. They’re pitching away from contact, giving up more home runs, etc. Over the course of time, it’s detrimental to maintaining mechanics and confidence.
Alright, let's take a quick look at some pitching numbers. Road stats do not include last night's game in Florida.
Home
326 IP / 7.70 K/9 / 53 HR / 1.48 WHIP / 4.91 ERA
Road
275.2 IP / 7.20 K/9 / 34 HR / 1.35 WHIP / 4.56 ERA
That's a pretty crude study, but to go further, you could bring into account strength of schedule on the road vs. at home and a myriad of other factors. This will suffice for now. *Outside of the increased home run rate, which isn't enormous if you take into account the differences in innings played, the Yankees' staff isn't getting bludgeoned at home compared to the road. The rate stats are better on the road, but they're also benefiting from a .281 BAbip away from New York vs. a typical .304 at home.
*Update, 9:38 a.m.: The home run rate while looking small on the surface [1.4 HR/9 at Yankee Stadium vs. 1.1 HR/9 on the road] does end up making a huge difference. Equaling out the number of innings played at home and on the road to 326, the staff would have allowed 53 gopher balls at the former and 40 at the latter. As we'll see below, Pettitte plays a big role in this difference.
The Yankees have used only six starting pitchers this year, which is a far cry from the 13 they had to hand the ball to last season. Included in that motley cast of characters were Kei Igawa, Dan Giese, Carl Pavano, of course, and even Brian Bruney for a start. We think things are rocky this year with the pitching staff? Darrell Rasner started 20 games last year, but I digress.
Burnett and Chamberlain have started 13 games apiece and Sabathia and Pettitte have both thrown 14 games. Hughes and Wang round things out with seven and six starts respectively. Leaving Hughes & Wang aside, let's look at the main four starters and their home/road splits.
Record at Yankee Stadium
| Player | Starts | Innings | K/9 | HR | WHIP | ERA |
| Sabathia | ||||||
| Burnett | ||||||
| Chamberlain | ||||||
| Pettitte |
On The Road
| Player | Starts | Innings | K/9 | HR | WHIP | ERA |
| Sabathia | ||||||
| Burnett | ||||||
| Chamberlain | ||||||
| Pettitte |
Well, there's not much here that suggests that Yankee Stadium has been obviously detrimental (or will be detrimental "over the course of time") to any regular starter besides Andy Pettitte. I'm struck by the similarity of Sabathia's home/road splits; the numbers go up (with the K's going down) a tick at home, but nothing stark. Burnett has actually been better, much better, at Yankee Stadium, and my perception of Joba is that he's been burned less by his home ballpark than his wildness, immaturity and inexperience. In three less innings of work, he's walked five more batters at home than on the road, and has actually allowed fewer home runs in the "Lil' Stadium" than at opposing parks.
Pettitte though? Well, small sample size blah blah blah aside, it does look like the Stadium has had an ill effect on the veteran left-hander. The 9:2 home run split just jumps off the page, and based on the quotes from Abraham it seems to now be inside his head. "I need to figure something out at home" indicates that he's going to make some kind of adjustment but what? Pitch sequence? Trying to nibble on the corners more?
Burnett's given up seven home runs at the new park this year, but that's balanced out by five on the road (in 11+ less innings of work to boot).
The only other starter that really jumps off the page in terms of his home run split (and I'm not going to even bother looking at Wang's numbers) is Phil Hughes. In 24+ innings on the work on the road he's allowed two long balls. At home: five home runs in 18 IP.
And for what it's worth, here's a quick wrap on what the four relievers with the heaviest workloads have done at home vs. the road. All four have pitched between 17-19 innings at home, and 8-11+ on the road. Home WHIPs are first:
Aceves:
WHIP: 1.89 / 1.18
Coke:
WHIP: 0.92 / 1.32
Rivera:
WHIP: 1.16 / 0.92
Veras
WHIP: 1.38 / 1.56
Jose Veras in 8.1 innings of work on the road compiled this line: 8.1/10/5 earned runs/4/5 good for an 8.64 ERA. Easy to see why he was DFA'ed.
Again, when you're talking about eight and 11 innings of work, these are very small sample sizes, but Veras actually pitched better at home for whatever that's worth, and Coke has been much better at the new ballpark. I can't speak for Aceves particularly, but the times I've seen Mariano struggle at Yankee Stadium it's been less about wind currents and short fences, than line drives getting hit all over the joint.
In any case, I'm not convinced that the new Stadium has been "detrimental" to anyone's confidence besides Andy Pettitte, the subject of Abraham's story to begin with. He needed a tidy concluding sentence like all writers do, but I'm not sure it quite fits. And besides the team is 21-14 at home and 17-15 on the road. So they're coping.
----
The End of the Dice-K Era?
Rob Neyer was busy last night, and piggy-backed on David Pinto's post at Baseball Musings. What does that make me? Oh well, whatever, never mind . . .
Well, all that pitching depth is about to pay off if the Red Sox idle Matsuzaka for a spell. Which isn't all that easy, since his contract actually prohibits a trip to the minors. If they don't want him to pitch, they'll have to send him to the bullpen or make up some sort of injury. Plus, it's just one lousy game. Granted, there have been other lousy games. But before Friday night, Dice-K had, at the very least, been striking out and walking reasonable numbers of batters. It's probably not quite the time to panic.
And of course there's still Clay Buchholz. Wednesday night in Pawtucket, John Smoltz -- in his "final tuneup" before joining the big club -- started for the PawSox and went four solid innings ... but it's Buchholz who got the victory with four solid innings of his own. In 71 innings, Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 65 strikeouts.
I would agree with David that the Red Sox' pitching depth will pay off. It has already, and almost certainly will again. But I still maintain that the Red Sox, right now, have more than they need. And that they might have been better off worrying last winter about their shortstops.
And of course there's still Clay Buchholz. Wednesday night in Pawtucket, John Smoltz -- in his "final tuneup" before joining the big club -- started for the PawSox and went four solid innings ... but it's Buchholz who got the victory with four solid innings of his own. In 71 innings, Buchholz is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 65 strikeouts.
I would agree with David that the Red Sox' pitching depth will pay off. It has already, and almost certainly will again. But I still maintain that the Red Sox, right now, have more than they need. And that they might have been better off worrying last winter about their shortstops.
The one thing Rob didn't point out, which Pinto alluded to, is Dice-K's H/9, which stood at 14.8 before last night. It was 8.4 in '07 and 6.9 last year. There has to be some regression in that number, but the bottom line is he isn't getting bleeped and blooped to death. He's getting whacked. His line drive percentage was steady in both of his first two seasons at 18%. This year, it's close to 30%. Theo Epstein and Bill James and HAL 9000 know all these numbers better than I do, and they're not going to sit there and watch this guy pitch like this when there are capable moundsmen waiting in the wings.
I've probably been a supporter (and I use that term with the lightest of connotations) of Daisuke Matsuzaka more than most people in these parts. The Red Sox fans are tired of him. The Yankee fans think he's been over-rated. And both camps are right in their own respective ways. If one of my projected top 3 starters were pitching to an 8.23 ERA and an unsightly 2.20 WHIP then yeah, I'd be pretty sick of it too. And truth be told, Matsuzaka has not lived up to the expectations that were levied on him in the winter of 2007, and there was a bit of smoke-and-mirrors act to his 2008 campaign.
However, the record does show he had a 200 inning/200 strikeout season for a team that won a championship. His record in 2007 wasn't as good as his peripherals would suggest, as he went 15-13 that season. Last year with the strikeout rate dipping a bit and his walks taking a turn for the worse, he still went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA, which probably was a little misleading. But again, 160+ innings of work for a team that was one win away from another trip to the World Series.
Cut it however you'd like, but Masuzaka has been a major contributor to the Red Sox since 2007 and his apparent/possible demise is a problem for them. There's been so much talk about the Sox rotation, it's made prospective fantasy league GMs out of all us: who's out/who's in, should they trade Penny, how long are they going to let Buchholz rot in Pawtucket. John Smoltz is on his way, scheduled to pitch Thursday in what would be Matsuzaka's normal turn in the rotation. Although he's apparently been lights-out in his minor league stints, do we really know what the old, venerable right-hander is going to give the Sox from now until October? Buchholz is a guy who apparently has sorted out the kinks. And he better have; he pitched to a 6.75 ERA in 76 innings of work in the bigs last season.
Some if this is a Yankee fan grasping at straws. This (Boston) is a team that has the 2nd best run differential in the sport and has been the 2nd best team in the American League at preventing runs. For all of the inconsistency in the starting rotation this season, they're still 13 over .500 and in first place and remain the best team in the A.L. And now it looks as if they're going to make major changes to their rotation, whether it's simply addition & subtraction, or the quasi-six-man rotation that's being bandied about. Smoltz for Dice-K makes sense right now, but if they're going to try and shoehorn Buchholz in there for Penny, who's pitched well post-April, there's a chance that things will be getting jumbled a little too much for their own good.
---
On My Turntable
Neil Young. Lots of Neil Young. I don't think I'm going to make the plunge and buy the Mt. Olympus of all box sets. For the time being, I'm content to just plunge into the varied live recordings I have and the various studio albums in my collection. He's an artist that you can forever chase and never catch, like Dylan like Robert Pollard like a whale of some renown. The archives just go on and on like an endless stream. Watching the river flow, indeed. You never quite reach fulfillment with artists like these, which makes something like Archives both a monument and a gnomon.
Listened to a wonderful Nirvana recording last night for the first time. Melbourne, early '92. Sounded golden. That was right in the thick of it. And it now takes it's place alongside the Del Mar, California December '91 show as the best documents I've heard that capture that moment when it all went boom.
One of my favorite documentaries is streaming at Pitchfork. One week only though. There's at least one GBV fan who frequents these parts from time to time . . .
