Tuesday, July 28, 2009
Post #200
(With Updates at the Bottom)
In I guess what qualifies as a bold statement around these parts, I wrote in an email yesterday: the Rays will not catch the Yanks 8 games out on the morning of July 30th.
The Rays are now eight games behind New York in the loss column on the morning of July 28, and one Yankee win in the next two nights keeps it at eight on the morning of July 30.
So much for the magnificent three-team race I wrote about on Sunday morning . . .
I fully expected Tampa to take two out of three in this series, but after dropping the opener in wholly unconvincing fashion their backs are squarely against the wall.
If there's any crime I committed on Sunday morning (and look, this could still shape up as a great September race between the three beasts of the East), it was over-rating how the Rays have been playing of late.
In the last 21 games, the Yankees have picked up six games on Tampa in the standings. That's a huge chunk of real estate in a short amount of time. As Steven Goldman broke down yesterday, Tampa really hadn't been playing well entering this series.
Tampa's record in the 20 games prior to last night was 10-10 and their offensive rates were uninspiring to say the least at .228/.315/.361.
Who said, "It's getting late early"? Well, that applies to the Rays right now. I think they need to take both games to remain in the mix with New York & Boston, a team they trail by six in the loss column.
Baseball Prospectus does a daily Postseason Odds report. Entering this series, the Yankees odds to enter the post-season were a tick over 75%. Today, after last night's 11-4 romp at the Trop, it's up to 85.9%, presumably their highest percentage of the season to date. Tampa's odds sit at 34%.
I hate to paint a series in July as a team's last stand, but for the Rays this is probably it.
As it stands now, the Rays are well on their way, up 3-1 Top 5 with Kazmir on his game. His line through five: 5/4/1/1/1/1/3, 84 pitches.
Update, 9:35 p.m. : Pete Abraham has dubbed this one a "train-wreck game" and he's right on the $$$. With worrisome Sabathia-related articles cropping up in a couple of respected places recently, tonight's lackluster performance by the Big Guy isn't going to deter those skeptical sentiments. Tampa's the team that's suddenly found themselves in must-win-now mode vs. New York, and the Yanks were probably due for a bit of a letdown. That being said, Sabathia's line is still pretty hideous: 5.2/9/6/5/2/6.
One of the sources of consternation has been his dipping strikeout rate; at least that wasn't an issue tonight. His hitability, however, was. And he wasn't helped much by shoddy outfield play by Nick Swisher and a couple of bad breaks (the line drive that Teixeira almost made a great play on in the 6th).
Kazmir is out of the game now after giving up a lead-off single to start the 8th. Not counting the runner on base his line for the night: 7+/5/1/1/1/4. Safe to say it's the lefty's best start of the season.
Update, 9:48 p.m.: Mop-up duty? Absolutely. But Mark Melancon gave a good account of himself: 20 pitches, 15 strikes, 2/1/0/0/0/2. His fastball didn't look overpowering, but the results speak for themselves. He averaged a walk an inning in his cup of coffee earlier in the season. So at least those initial jitters seem to be out of the way.
Remarkable. Mark Buehrle followed up his Thursday perfecto by throwing 5.2 perfect innings in the Metrodome. A walk, a single and a double later, and it's a tie game going into the 7th, 1-1.
Update, 9:55: Yanks have scored a run in the 9th on a Matsui double, but are on thin ice with 2 outs down 6-2. Big start for Joba tomorrow night vs. Garza. I still contend New York has a hammer to drop that the Rays won't recover from. Boston well on their way to closing the gap to 1.5. Gonna finish my night by watching the end of the Minny-ChiSox game. Have a good one.
(With Updates at the Bottom)
In I guess what qualifies as a bold statement around these parts, I wrote in an email yesterday: the Rays will not catch the Yanks 8 games out on the morning of July 30th.
The Rays are now eight games behind New York in the loss column on the morning of July 28, and one Yankee win in the next two nights keeps it at eight on the morning of July 30.
So much for the magnificent three-team race I wrote about on Sunday morning . . .
I fully expected Tampa to take two out of three in this series, but after dropping the opener in wholly unconvincing fashion their backs are squarely against the wall.
If there's any crime I committed on Sunday morning (and look, this could still shape up as a great September race between the three beasts of the East), it was over-rating how the Rays have been playing of late.
In the last 21 games, the Yankees have picked up six games on Tampa in the standings. That's a huge chunk of real estate in a short amount of time. As Steven Goldman broke down yesterday, Tampa really hadn't been playing well entering this series.
Tampa's record in the 20 games prior to last night was 10-10 and their offensive rates were uninspiring to say the least at .228/.315/.361.
Who said, "It's getting late early"? Well, that applies to the Rays right now. I think they need to take both games to remain in the mix with New York & Boston, a team they trail by six in the loss column.
Baseball Prospectus does a daily Postseason Odds report. Entering this series, the Yankees odds to enter the post-season were a tick over 75%. Today, after last night's 11-4 romp at the Trop, it's up to 85.9%, presumably their highest percentage of the season to date. Tampa's odds sit at 34%.
I hate to paint a series in July as a team's last stand, but for the Rays this is probably it.
As it stands now, the Rays are well on their way, up 3-1 Top 5 with Kazmir on his game. His line through five: 5/4/1/1/1/1/3, 84 pitches.
Update, 9:35 p.m. : Pete Abraham has dubbed this one a "train-wreck game" and he's right on the $$$. With worrisome Sabathia-related articles cropping up in a couple of respected places recently, tonight's lackluster performance by the Big Guy isn't going to deter those skeptical sentiments. Tampa's the team that's suddenly found themselves in must-win-now mode vs. New York, and the Yanks were probably due for a bit of a letdown. That being said, Sabathia's line is still pretty hideous: 5.2/9/6/5/2/6.
One of the sources of consternation has been his dipping strikeout rate; at least that wasn't an issue tonight. His hitability, however, was. And he wasn't helped much by shoddy outfield play by Nick Swisher and a couple of bad breaks (the line drive that Teixeira almost made a great play on in the 6th).
Kazmir is out of the game now after giving up a lead-off single to start the 8th. Not counting the runner on base his line for the night: 7+/5/1/1/1/4. Safe to say it's the lefty's best start of the season.
Update, 9:48 p.m.: Mop-up duty? Absolutely. But Mark Melancon gave a good account of himself: 20 pitches, 15 strikes, 2/1/0/0/0/2. His fastball didn't look overpowering, but the results speak for themselves. He averaged a walk an inning in his cup of coffee earlier in the season. So at least those initial jitters seem to be out of the way.
Remarkable. Mark Buehrle followed up his Thursday perfecto by throwing 5.2 perfect innings in the Metrodome. A walk, a single and a double later, and it's a tie game going into the 7th, 1-1.
Update, 9:55: Yanks have scored a run in the 9th on a Matsui double, but are on thin ice with 2 outs down 6-2. Big start for Joba tomorrow night vs. Garza. I still contend New York has a hammer to drop that the Rays won't recover from. Boston well on their way to closing the gap to 1.5. Gonna finish my night by watching the end of the Minny-ChiSox game. Have a good one.
